The Next Market Crash is Coming

[sevoflurane]

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As a FI 50yo still working I struggle to find a non equities non bond investment that checks all the boxes for me. While I have tremendous respect for those that own real estate, it just isn’t for me. REITS are too strongly correlated to financial markets. Probably syndications are the closest best answer for me but then I think about all the state K-1s and tax implications or the hoops to jump through to invest through my 401k and I zone out. I’ve done amazing with S&P for 30 years so I’ll just keep tweaking the allocation and hope for the best. Kids gonna probably get 10 figures regardless, prob should just focus on more ski trips.

Totally get that and can’t disagree. 👍🏽
Nothing touches market returns since 2008.
It’s been a historical run for sure.

In escrow with a literal dream property that I will rent until full retirement. It’s 38 minutes from my home in Nevada and resides in California in one of the most beautiful Tahoe mountain locations- complete with all the creature comforts of a luxury Martis Valley gated neighborhood.

At this point in life I feel the need to spend a bit and set ourselves up for retirement. I’ve been frugal and disciplined with investing for far too long. “Can’t take it with you” as they say.

I am also in my 50’s and don’t see myself working in anesthesia in 5 years. At that point my main source of income will be RE and you can bet your bottom dollar I’ll be spending a lot of time at that property even if I loose my write offs.

Pack up the wife and dogs and 38 minutes later we are there all the while keeping the tax benefits of living in Nevada. Making those memories will far outweigh the loss of income.

For now it’s a 100% RE investment.

51.50% occupation rate generated 219k in 2024. It’s a decent investment but it goes beyond that. It’s a stepping stone to a life hack when we retire.



We don’t have kids, so most of what we have we will spend or donate to charity.

Again, hard to argue against market returns but at some point it’s just a number in a bank account.

 

[cchoukal]

10 figures? That’s a billion.

I think he meant 11.

 

[pgg]

10 figures? That’s a billion.

Maybe it's not USD 🙂

 

[Gern Blansten]

Kids gonna probably get 10 figures regardless, prob should just focus on more ski trips.

Daddy??? Is that you? I've been trying to find you...

 

[caligas]

I count after the decimal

Seriously though I edited to 8 and I’m taking these signs of early dementia that we really need to do more trips now

 

[ERRES2288]

Long term TIPS over 3% right now are probably the best diversifier if you really think market will crash or have poor returns over next couple decades. 3% real is nothing to sneeze at.

 

[urge]

I have lived through the Dot Com crash of 2000 and the Financial Crisis of 2008 but the next one circa 2028? could be even worse. The numbers being spent on "AI infrastructure" seems to be in the trillions. I am a believer in Ai just like I believed in the internet revolution. However, in both cases the Wall Street got it wrong when it came to valuation and spending. History seems to be repeating itself with Ai, Chips and Data Center infrastructure.

I say no crash, just because too many people are expecting a crash.

I agree the Anthropic and Open AIs of life will not be profitable. It seems the LLMs are good for summarizing and write ups, but they don’t create new things. Their market is students and low level office jobs. LLMs are much better than any teacher I ever had and can write a fairly good report in a few minutes. I would be 10 times more knowledgeable if I had them when I was growing up. I doubt that market is worth the investment that has gone into the data centers though.

Some of the beneficiaries of the data centers, chips and memory, will stay. We need them for the next stage: robots. The energy providers and cooling services will fizzle out IMHO. I expect the future data centers will be solar and in space.

Overall, the SP500 will keep going up as usual. Ups and downs.

However, many of you are getting pretty old and should come off the equities market. Move the money into higher yield, less growth. Enjoy the money now while you can. The widow maker is coming for you.

 

[Gern Blansten]

I count after the decimal

Seriously though I edited to 8 and I’m taking these signs of early dementia that we really need to do more trips now

My kids are going to get rich too. Each will get 11 figures ( $10,000.000000 )

 

[caligas]

Totally get that and can’t disagree. 👍🏽
Nothing touches market returns since 2008.
It’s been a historical run for sure.

In escrow with a literal dream property that I will rent until full retirement. It’s 38 minutes from my home in Nevada and resides in California in one of the most beautiful Tahoe mountain locations- complete with all the creature comforts of a luxury Martis Valley gated neighborhood.

At this point in life I feel the need to spend a bit and set ourselves up for retirement. I’ve been frugal and disciplined with investing for far too long. “Can’t take it with you” as they say.

I am also in my 50’s and don’t see myself working in anesthesia in 5 years. At that point my main source of income will be RE and you can bet your bottom dollar I’ll be spending a lot of time at that property even if I loose my write offs.

Pack up the wife and dogs and 38 minutes later we are there all the while keeping the tax benefits of living in Nevada. Making those memories will far outweigh the loss of income.

For now it’s a 100% RE investment.

51.50% occupation rate generated 219k in 2024. It’s a decent investment but it goes beyond that. It’s a stepping stone to a life hack when we retire.

View attachment 423360

We don’t have kids, so most of what we have we will spend or donate to charity.

Again, hard to argue against market returns but at some point it’s just a number in a bank account.

Will you get Martis camp membership or just go for the property? I imagine that is a tricky aspect to navigate.

 

[dchz]

Totally get that and can’t disagree. 👍🏽
Nothing touches market returns since 2008.
It’s been a historical run for sure.

In escrow with a literal dream property that I will rent until full retirement. It’s 38 minutes from my home in Nevada and resides in California in one of the most beautiful Tahoe mountain locations- complete with all the creature comforts of a luxury Martis Valley gated neighborhood.

At this point in life I feel the need to spend a bit and set ourselves up for retirement. I’ve been frugal and disciplined with investing for far too long. “Can’t take it with you” as they say.

I am also in my 50’s and don’t see myself working in anesthesia in 5 years. At that point my main source of income will be RE and you can bet your bottom dollar I’ll be spending a lot of time at that property even if I loose my write offs.

Pack up the wife and dogs and 38 minutes later we are there all the while keeping the tax benefits of living in Nevada. Making those memories will far outweigh the loss of income.

For now it’s a 100% RE investment.

51.50% occupation rate generated 219k in 2024. It’s a decent investment but it goes beyond that. It’s a stepping stone to a life hack when we retire.

View attachment 423360

We don’t have kids, so most of what we have we will spend or donate to charity.

Again, hard to argue against market returns but at some point it’s just a number in a bank account.

Can't take it with you indeed.

My father passed away recently and I saw that first hand. On top of that, I'm the same age as UTSouthwestern when he was diagnosed. Makes me think about life a lot.

 

[ambiturner]

Long term TIPS over 3% right now are probably the best diversifier if you really think market will crash or have poor returns over next couple decades. 3% real is nothing to sneeze at.

What’s the best way to buy a TIPS (not a TIPS index)? Treasury direct or is there a way to do it via brokerage (vanguard fidelity etc)?

 

[sevoflurane]

Can't take it with you indeed.

My father passed away recently and I saw that first hand. On top of that, I'm the same age as UTSouthwestern when he was diagnosed. Makes me think about life a lot.

Sorry to hear that. Not looking forward to that in my own life.
UT was such a good dude. Glad to get to know him personally through his journey.
Sobering. He was dying as I was starting my cardiac career. Cool operator until the end.

 

[Splenda88]

The AI run will last another 12 to 18 months. I will ride it until I can achieve coast FIRE. I just need AMD to get to $1000/share.

I am mad at myself for selling my 6277 shares of PLTR too early at $18.14 (profit was only ~14K). I could have semi retired now.

 

[aneftp]

The AI run will last another 12 to 18 months. I will ride it until I can achieve coast FIRE. I just need AMD to get to $1000/share.

I am mad at myself for selling my 6277 shares of PLTR too early at $18.14 (profit was only ~14K). I could have semi retired now.

It’s impossible to time. Sometimes people get lucky

I held more shares than that of amd at $5-8 a share but it went no where for 5-6 years. After the financial crash. It only went up one year after I sold it.

I sold my last remaining shares of amd at $154 last September before the massive current run up. But barely made any money cause I had repurchase it at $100 a share and it went up to $250? And back down to $90? I figure just take profit at $154 and call it a day.

 

[sevoflurane]

Will you get Martis camp membership or just go for the property? I imagine that is a tricky aspect to navigate.

HOA covers all amenities minus golf (although it comes with 6 rounds a year).

I don’t golf but guests can access the golf course at a discounted rate of $315. Rest of the amenities are free for the rental guests.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Meta Stock Could Lose Nearly All Its Value in Historic $1.4 Trillion Lawsuit

Meta disclosed that potential damages in a federal teen safety trial could reach $1.4 trillion, nearly matching its $1.4 trillion market cap. Learn more here.

financebuzz.com

Meta stock price will get pulverized if they lose the lawsuit. The odds are they will lose and those that are shorting the stock will make billions. It wouldn't surprise me to see Meta stock at $300 per share by December 2026.

2X Short META Daily ETF (METQ) | Tradr ETFs

2X Short META Daily ETF (METQ) | Tradr ETFs

www.tradretfs.com

 

[BLADEMDA]

“Retail investors are selectively trading in the classic AI theme but also adding downside protection via options and inverse ETFs,” Vanda’s global equity strategist Kaidi Meng told CNBC in an emailed statement.

Retail investors aren't entirely giving up on AI trade, but they appear more cautious

Mom-and-Pop investors remain bullish on AI and tech, but some are adding downside protection.

www.cnbc.com

 

[BLADEMDA]

The AI run will last another 12 to 18 months. I will ride it until I can achieve coast FIRE. I just need AMD to get to $1000/share.

I am mad at myself for selling my 6277 shares of PLTR too early at $18.14 (profit was only ~14K). I could have semi retired now.

​

Starting Withdrawal Rate 2026 Withdrawal Amount 2026 Withdrawal Percentage Probability of Success Over Remaining Period
3.30% $38,357 3.66% 96.60%
4.00% $46,494 4.60% 85.20%

The Results​

In the first report published in 2021, my colleagues Christine Benz, Jeff Ptak, and John Rekenthaler (who has since retired) recommended that new retirees take a conservative approach to retirement income by using a starting withdrawal rate of 3.3%. The 3.3% figure was based on cautious estimates for future asset-class returns, which increase the likelihood that portfolio balances will run out before the end of an assumed 30-year retirement period.

The report’s 3.3% recommendation raised a few eyebrows. If a 4% withdrawal rate has always worked historically, people wondered, why use a number that’s so much lower? Assuming a $1 million starting portfolio balance, retirees withdrawing 3.3% per year would end up with a first-year withdrawal amount of just $33,000, versus $40,000 based on a 4.0% withdrawal rate. Depending on a retiree’s other sources of income, that difference could mean a lot of belt-tightening or forgoing some travel plans during the first year of retirement—exactly when it might be nice to spend a little more lavishly.




The probability of success over the next 26 years looks significantly lower based on these numbers, dropping to 85.2%. Some retirees might be fine with those odds, but people who prefer a greater level of certainty may want to pull back slightly on spending. Cutting annual spending (ideally to about $39,400) would improve the odds of success.

 

[skougess]

Meta Stock Could Lose Nearly All Its Value in Historic $1.4 Trillion Lawsuit

Meta disclosed that potential damages in a federal teen safety trial could reach $1.4 trillion, nearly matching its $1.4 trillion market cap. Learn more here.

financebuzz.com

Meta stock price will get pulverized if they lose the lawsuit. The odds are they will lose and those that are shorting the stock will make billions. It wouldn't surprise me to see Meta stock at $300 per share by December 2026.

2X Short META Daily ETF (METQ) | Tradr ETFs

2X Short META Daily ETF (METQ) | Tradr ETFs

www.tradretfs.com

This is probably the only way to stop the sociopaths running these tech companies. Do Anthropic and OpenAI next.

 

[Lab Lover]

​

Starting Withdrawal Rate 2026 Withdrawal Amount 2026 Withdrawal Percentage Probability of Success Over Remaining Period
3.30% $38,357 3.66% 96.60%
4.00% $46,494 4.60% 85.20%

The Results​

In the first report published in 2021, my colleagues Christine Benz, Jeff Ptak, and John Rekenthaler (who has since retired) recommended that new retirees take a conservative approach to retirement income by using a starting withdrawal rate of 3.3%. The 3.3% figure was based on cautious estimates for future asset-class returns, which increase the likelihood that portfolio balances will run out before the end of an assumed 30-year retirement period.

The report’s 3.3% recommendation raised a few eyebrows. If a 4% withdrawal rate has always worked historically, people wondered, why use a number that’s so much lower? Assuming a $1 million starting portfolio balance, retirees withdrawing 3.3% per year would end up with a first-year withdrawal amount of just $33,000, versus $40,000 based on a 4.0% withdrawal rate. Depending on a retiree’s other sources of income, that difference could mean a lot of belt-tightening or forgoing some travel plans during the first year of retirement—exactly when it might be nice to spend a little more lavishly.




The probability of success over the next 26 years looks significantly lower based on these numbers, dropping to 85.2%. Some retirees might be fine with those odds, but people who prefer a greater level of certainty may want to pull back slightly on spending. Cutting annual spending (ideally to about $39,400) would improve the odds of success.

30year Tips ladder with 4.9% swr. Adjusted for inflation.

Long-term TIPS Yield now 3%; 4.9% Guaranteed 30-Year Withdrawal Rate — My Money Blog

www.mymoneyblog.com

Guaranteed by the US Treasury. Not quite as reassuring as before, but not sure what’s safer.

 

[BLADEMDA]

30year Tips ladder with 4.9% swr. Adjusted for inflation.

Long-term TIPS Yield now 3%; 4.9% Guaranteed 30-Year Withdrawal Rate — My Money Blog

www.mymoneyblog.com

Guaranteed by the US Treasury. Not quite as reassuring as before, but not sure what’s safer.

Recommendation #2 (stocks): The stock investor with a truly long-term horizon of 30 years or longer need not be tempted by enticing 3.0% yields on TIPS. Stay the course. But as the horizon shortens to 20 years, TIPS start to become a reasonable alternative. As the horizon shortens further to 15 or 10 years, stock returns become more likely to fall short of 2.5%–3.0% real, and TIPS become a more compelling alternative.

 

[IlDestriero]

I think the real issue is the comical valuations of some these new unproven companies. Is this the next apple, Tesla, Amazon, or is it the Metaverse and NFT? I was going to say spacex, but it’s doing better than I expected. I’m a buyer on the way down starting at $100. It will get there.

 

[aneftp]

Meta is basically a monopoly on social media with Facebook owning the adults (no young kids use ) what’s app and insta and Facebook smart enough to start implementing ai early as well. Blade is talking another 40% decrease to $300. On top of the 20% decrease from its $680 recent high. I don’t see that.

 

[Lab Lover]

This is probably the only way to stop the sociopaths running these tech companies. Do Anthropic and OpenAI next.

Think tobacco lawsuits. These ****ers are more powerful than Big tobacco ever was. At the least we should be able to put a label on anything that was created with AI or bankrupt them.

 

[cittykat]

Think tobacco lawsuits. These ****ers are more powerful than Big tobacco ever was. At the least we should be able to put a label on anything that was created with AI or bankrupt them.

Notice it’s the states, not the federal government.

Marty Makary resigns as Trump's FDA chief

At the FDA, Makary failed to win the staff's confidence after mass layoffs, leadership changes and a series of controversies in which the agency’s scientific principles appeared to be overridden by political interests.

www.pbs.org

 

[finalpsychyear]

​

Starting Withdrawal Rate 2026 Withdrawal Amount 2026 Withdrawal Percentage Probability of Success Over Remaining Period
3.30% $38,357 3.66% 96.60%
4.00% $46,494 4.60% 85.20%

The Results​

In the first report published in 2021, my colleagues Christine Benz, Jeff Ptak, and John Rekenthaler (who has since retired) recommended that new retirees take a conservative approach to retirement income by using a starting withdrawal rate of 3.3%. The 3.3% figure was based on cautious estimates for future asset-class returns, which increase the likelihood that portfolio balances will run out before the end of an assumed 30-year retirement period.

The report’s 3.3% recommendation raised a few eyebrows. If a 4% withdrawal rate has always worked historically, people wondered, why use a number that’s so much lower? Assuming a $1 million starting portfolio balance, retirees withdrawing 3.3% per year would end up with a first-year withdrawal amount of just $33,000, versus $40,000 based on a 4.0% withdrawal rate. Depending on a retiree’s other sources of income, that difference could mean a lot of belt-tightening or forgoing some travel plans during the first year of retirement—exactly when it might be nice to spend a little more lavishly.




The probability of success over the next 26 years looks significantly lower based on these numbers, dropping to 85.2%. Some retirees might be fine with those odds, but people who prefer a greater level of certainty may want to pull back slightly on spending. Cutting annual spending (ideally to about $39,400) would improve the odds of success.

What is the age of the retiree? I think 3% is ok if your in your mid to late 40s, 4% in your 50s, and likely above 4% for those 60 or older.

Are we including SS at age 62 and/or likely inheritance for many? I think most of these assume no SS and no inheritance.


also from what i got from AI if after 3 years your portfolio has gained 20-25% real cumulative you are bulletproof for 3% swr vs gaining 30-40% for 4% making it bulletproof.

 

[BLADEMDA]

What is the age of the retiree? I think 3% is ok if your in your mid to late 40s, 4% in your 50s, and likely above 4% for those 60 or older.

Are we including SS at age 62 and/or likely inheritance for many? I think most of these assume no SS and no inheritance.


also from what i got from AI if after 3 years your portfolio has gained 20-25% real cumulative you are bulletproof for 3% swr vs gaining 30-40% for 4% making it bulletproof.

Morningstar picked a "bad year" 2022 to start retirement. They wanted to include some level of SRR in their scenario. You are correct about "bulletproof" if you can get through the first 3 years without a down market then it's 4% up to 4.7% withdrawals for the next 30 years. So for people like us we can "hedge" retirement by going part time for 3 years all but guaranteeing 4%-4.5% when we truly call it quits.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

I have lived through the Dot Com crash of 2000 and the Financial Crisis of 2008 but the next one circa 2028? could be even worse. The numbers being spent on "AI infrastructure" seems to be in the trillions. I am a believer in Ai just like I believed in the internet revolution. However, in both cases the Wall Street got it wrong when it came to valuation and spending. History seems to be repeating itself with Ai, Chips and Data Center infrastructure.

2028 is a solid 2 years off. It's this year 2026 with good chance we've already seen the highs. We likely already had the blow off top, though it did seem to abort prematurely. Possibly just saw the retest double top, and now it's back below its long term trendline. I only look at the NASDAQ. I got out of everything June 5 and just trading pocket change fun money here and there since then.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

Financial Calendars - Yahoo Finance

‘Big Short’ investor Michael Burry issues blunt 4-word warning on AI stocks​

Moz Farooque
4 min read


41
It seems the 'Big Short' Michael Burry isn't easing up on his criticism of the AI trade anytime soon.

The hedge fund investor who became famous for betting against the 2008 housing bubble has spent the past few weeks sharpening his attack on AI stocks, and his latest posts pushed that warning into even darker territory.


In his string of scathing social-media posts, he paired sharp language with charts showing a widening gap between chip stocks and the companies shelling out billions to build AI infrastructure.

Over the past few months, Burry has taken AI stocks to the cleaners, building his case around stretched valuations, crowded trades, and a growing divide between AI chip winners and the hyperscalers paying for the buildout.

The big concern is whether investors may have priced the winners as if the spending boom can keep compounding without disappointment.

Why Burry says the AI trade is nearing trouble​

Burry's latest AI troll was apocalyptic, warning of what could be the beginning of a grueling stock market crash.

More Michael Burry:

• Michael Burry doubles down on AI chip bubble with Micron short
• Michael Burry makes first-ever bet against longtime favorite stock
• Michael Burry just made a rare bullish bet on Microsoft

According to Seeking Alpha, Burry posted, "The end is nigh," then added, "Dancing with the devil in the pale moon light," a reference to Jack Nicholson's Joker line from Tim Burton's Batman.


Burry wrote that "the AI narrative is nothing more than mass addiction," and warned that "the AI narrative may die a death by a thousand cuts, and I have only seen a few dozen so far."

His charts pointed to two concerns.

AI semiconductor stocks have sharply outperformed the hyperscale cloud companies funding the infrastructure buildout, as well as broader AI beneficiaries. Another chart showed the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index trading near the top of its 15-year valuation range on forward P/E.

Burry argues that chip stocks may have raced ahead of the fundamentals supporting the AI boom.

For perspective, according to Reuters, the chip sell-off hit the tape hard.

The Philadelphia semiconductor index dropped 6.3% on July 1 and another 5.5% on July 2, while the S&P 500 tanked 0.22% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.66% and 0.80%, respectively.

• 
  
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  Photo by BeInCrypto
  Steve Eisman has pointed to what he sees as the Achilles' heel of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, and it traces back to just two companies sitting at the center of it.
  
  The "Big Short" investor made the case on CNBC's Fast Money. He argues the fortunes of the largest US technology companies now hinge on two startups.
  
  

  Steve Eisman Sees the AI Boom's Achilles' Heel​

  Eisman put OpenAI and Anthropic at roughly 70% of AI-related revenue at Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet's Google, and Oracle. He added that the two accounted for 25% to 35% of cloud revenue at those four.
  
  
  Eisman sees a key threat coming from China. Chinese open-source models cost far less and appear to be winning customers. Sustained share gains by those models could set off a price war across the sector, he said.
  
  
  Last month, he sold his Google stake and moved to cash. The executive noted that he wanted to reduce his "exposure to AI."
  
  Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens
  
  

  Burry Bets Against the AI Trade​

  Eisman is not the only one. Michael Burry, the investor who shorted subprime mortgages before the 2008 crash, ranks among Wall Street's loudest AI skeptics.
  
  He is short on iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), Micron, Nvidia, Caterpillar, Palantir, Tesla, and Applied Materials. Burry also forecasted that US stocks could suffer a 1987-type crash.

Michael Burry is about one for 20. He nailed 2008 and has been calling crashes ever since. I do believe he's correct this time.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

There is a better way to look at this. The worst we have seen the market crash is around 40%-50%

“Nasdaq Composite: The Dot-Com Bust (2000–2002)


The Drawdown: The Nasdaq Composite peaked at 5,048.62 on March 10, 2000, and fell to 1,114.11 by March 8, 2002 (a -77.9% drop within exactly 24 months). It eventually bottomed at 1,108.49 in October 2002 (-78.2% total).


Context: Extreme valuations and non-profitable business models collapsed as liquidity dried up and interest rates rose.


Runner-up (2007–2008): The Nasdaq dropped -55.6% during the Great Financial Crisis.


S&P 500: The Global Financial Crisis (2007–2009)


The Drawdown: The S&P 500 peaked at 1,565.15 on October 9, 2007, and bottomed at 676.53 on March 9, 2009—a total loss of -56.8% in exactly 17 months (well within the 24-month horizon).


Context: The insolvency of major financial institutions (Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns) triggered a credit freeze and the worst recession since the 1930s.


Runner-up (2000–2002): The S&P 500 dropped -49.1% during the Dot-Com crash (over 30 months). “

We had an incredible run the last 10 years.

Ok. So my net worth drops from 7 million to 3.5 million? Is that gonna to affect my life? No

My earning potential is my biggest backstop to all this.

So if other docs networth in here are 20 million and they drop down to 10 million. Is that gonna to make them suffer? No

Many young docs networth may be 2 million. And it drops to 1 million. It’s not gonna to phase them.

I don’t live my life thinking when the market will crash anymore.

And 50% is worst case.

Sometimes we do a slap in the face things just can’t keep going up and up.

Keep in mind it the NASDAQ peaked Mar 10, 2000 at 5132, and 16.5 years later Nov 4, 2016 closed at 5046. And that's not taking inflation into account so you were still way down in real terms. I agree don't go living in fear of crashes, but also don't be in denial when the market is screaming insanity with too many dot com similarities. Caution would be wise.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

TQQQ has out performed both, would you consider buying it? No, its too much risk. The beauty of and S and P 500 index is that once a company becomes a loser it gets kicked out of the index so not to drag it down. Not sure your small cap fund does that

I'm a huge tqqq fan and it paid well.
.....but not touching it anymore. In a dot com scenario it would lose 99+%.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

I say no crash, just because too many people are expecting a crash.

That is my biggest concern. I've been charting out this peak for over a year, but now that everyone is crying chicken little I am definitely open to questioning that. But not enough to get me back in.

 

[sevoflurane]

That is my biggest concern. I've been charting out this peak for over a year, but now that everyone is crying chicken little I am definitely open to questioning that. But not enough to get me back in.

Your tax liabilities for 2026 will be very high if we are talking brokerage accounts.
Pulling everything out is hella risky IMO.
Definition of timing the market.
.

 

[finalpsychyear]

Morningstar picked a "bad year" 2022 to start retirement. They wanted to include some level of SRR in their scenario. You are correct about "bulletproof" if you can get through the first 3 years without a down market then it's 4% up to 4.7% withdrawals for the next 30 years. So for people like us we can "hedge" retirement by going part time for 3 years all but guaranteeing 4%-4.5% when we truly call it quits.

Exactly. I also dont agree with someone going FT for 20-25 years who just goes to 0 immediately. The beauty in most fields is the stair step down ability.

A simple formula you reach your " magic number" lets call it 10m liquid invested. You then kick back and test out part time work 2-3 days enuf to pay the bills but leave portfolio untouched and see how you adjust to much more free time. Do this for a few years lets say 3 yrs min you find out what that life looks like for you and your working somewhere in the 1-3 days a week. You check ur balance and the market has still given u a 10% annual return over the 3 years while you have cut back and now its at 13m portfolio. This is the way you can really discover how much you want to work for reasons outside of money and what your doing with the rest of your time. If your on the couch streaming most of the day, part time working will likely incr your longevity and better quality of life.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

if you were in my shoes (age 42, 100% VTSAX, planning to work until 60), Blade, what would you change? The problem with guessing a market top correctly is you also have to guess a re-entry point correctly.

That's such an underrated point. I do pretty well avoiding the crashes, both dot com and 08. But that is something I already know I'm very weak at is recognizing the reentry. I haven't seen the similarities jump out at me the way the tops do.

My analysis of gold hasn't changed. Loaded up around 2000,apex of the very long term ascending triangle for the chart junkies, figuring a couple of doubles every 3 years. We recently bottomed around 4000, and I think it's the safest best to double again in a few years, and if that's incorrect I still like the risk profile of gold better than the historic valuations of the market.

 

[aneftp]

The issue is even with blades more conservative approach. As he heads towards death.

He has less days in front of him than behind him (it’s the sad truth for most of us)

A standard 60/40 stocks and bonds was still DOWN 15% during. Jan 2000-Oct 2001 stock crash’s (vs stocks being down 40%)

During the financial crash from March 2007 to March 2009. Same thing. A 60/40 portfolio still DOWN 28-30% vs almost 50% for pure stocks.

There is no where to hide outside of just having money in us treasuries.

Either with 60/40 portfolio or 100% us treasuries. You still end up being down compared to 100% pure stocks with the slow rebound the next 5 years.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

Your tax liabilities for 2026 will be very high if we are talking brokerage accounts.
Pulling everything out is hella risky IMO.
Definition of timing the market.
.

Timing to me is, "Hey the market sure seems high, I think I'll sell and buy lower." I don't do that. Shorting Amazon in the 90s taught me that lesson when it had the public appearance of just another bloated internet bookstore of no value when those in the know knew it would be going from books to literally everything. Last time I ever tried just blindly timing something.

I live and die by the chart. It's all I've been doing the last couple of years since going mostly retired. The market moves are 98% emotional and repetitive to a large degree, though the majority of the time its easier to see that in retrospect, it's still truth.

I missed a lot of the dot com runup because fundamentally it was an insane market to be in guaranteed to end in disaster. This time I held my nose and rode the chart momentum, no shorting the Amazons or anything else, and if the way I see charts is now telling me too much danger, I'm not going to fight it.

Now I could just be flat out wrong, or I could be very correct in how the chart looks, but the market can change on a dime as it has a history of doing, and all previous trends and similarities mean nothing as it begins an entirely new course.

I can live with either of those missing out scenarios, but I can't live with I'll hold on even though I don't believe in the market right now. And yes, short term taxes have annihilated me the last couple of years, but it's too much fun playing chess going mano a mano vs the market haha.

I'm also something like 80% in gold so it's not like my money is in 3% treasuries and the rest stuffed under a mattress.

 

[urge]

That is my biggest concern. I've been charting out this peak for over a year, but now that everyone is crying chicken little I am definitely open to questioning that. But not enough to get me back in.

Nobody knows for sure but that’s my “educated” guess. And by “educated” I mean I lost like 80% of my portfolio after the 2000 bubble was over. I had no clue what I was doing then, although not much has changed now to be honest. I learned to avoid the hot stocks. But keeping an eye on them in case they crump, and if still attractive to me snag them when most don’t like them. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.

It’s your money. Do whatever makes you sleep better at night.

 

[cittykat]

Nobody knows for sure but that’s my “educated” guess. And by “educated” I mean I lost like 80% of my portfolio after the 2000 bubble was over. I had no clue what I was doing then, although not much has changed now to be honest.

We went to the same school with the same result! 😂

 

[coolforschool]

Timing to me is, "Hey the market sure seems high, I think I'll sell and buy lower." I don't do that. Shorting Amazon in the 90s taught me that lesson when it had the public appearance of just another bloated internet bookstore of no value when those in the know knew it would be going from books to literally everything. Last time I ever tried just blindly timing something.

I live and die by the chart. It's all I've been doing the last couple of years since going mostly retired. The market moves are 98% emotional and repetitive to a large degree, though the majority of the time its easier to see that in retrospect, it's still truth.

I missed a lot of the dot com runup because fundamentally it was an insane market to be in guaranteed to end in disaster. This time I held my nose and rode the chart momentum, no shorting the Amazons or anything else, and if the way I see charts is now telling me too much danger, I'm not going to fight it.

Now I could just be flat out wrong, or I could be very correct in how the chart looks, but the market can change on a dime as it has a history of doing, and all previous trends and similarities mean nothing as it begins an entirely new course.

I can live with either of those missing out scenarios, but I can't live with I'll hold on even though I don't believe in the market right now. And yes, short term taxes have annihilated me the last couple of years, but it's too much fun playing chess going mano a mano vs the market haha.

I'm also something like 80% in gold so it's not like my money is in 3% treasuries and the rest stuffed under a mattress.

This is just… timing the market with style, aka astrology for men.

 

[emergentmd]

I had a partner that went through the 2001 crash, rebuilt and went through the 2008 crash. Could not bear the bear market and went all cash. For the next 2 yrs, stayed out and missed out on the bull. I have no idea if he ever went back into the market.

Point is to take emotions out of investing. History tells you that whatever market timing thesis you have typically will not beat DCA into a bear/bull market.

Market does feel overheated but no one can predict when/if/how much it will drop. If you are young, just continue to DCA into the market. Sell some covered calls if you want to blunt drops when it feels overheated.

Otherwise, even the "pros" can not market time so I doubt anyone on here can other than making "educated" guesses.

Michael Burry is the classic squirrel/nut case. He made one correct call and has been living on this nut even though he has lost many many best since. He is like a QB who had one great year and sucked after but keeps getting attention/contracts b/c owners hope he will find that magic again.

 

[aneftp]

I had a partner that went through the 2001 crash, rebuilt and went through the 2008 crash. Could not bear the bear market and went all cash. For the next 2 yrs, stayed out and missed out on the bull. I have no idea if he ever went back into the market.

Point is to take emotions out of investing. History tells you that whatever market timing thesis you have typically will not beat DCA into a bear/bull market.

Market does feel overheated but no one can predict when/if/how much it will drop. If you are young, just continue to DCA into the market. Sell some covered calls if you want to blunt drops when it feels overheated.

Otherwise, even the "pros" can not market time so I doubt anyone on here can other than making "educated" guesses.

Michael Burry is the classic squirrel/nut case. He made one correct call and has been living on this nut even though he has lost many many best since. He is like a QB who had one great year and sucked after but keeps getting attention/contracts b/c owners hope he will find that magic again.

I was mostly cash in 2009-2011. Miss probably 500k in stock potential gains with too much cash sitting around in new money I made. Plus my over 250k housing loss (real lossses). Never made any money as they were my first two homes.

Life is a journey. Lots of mistakes made along the way. Those mistakes cost me probably 2-3 million over the last 15 years

I was planning to retire or be financial independent by age 45. Now it will be closely to age 55.

Few quirks along the way can cost you millions and set you back.

But lesson learn. I just keep pouring money into the market the last 15 years. All equities.

 

[ItBurnsInMyHand]

Totally get that and can’t disagree. 👍🏽
Nothing touches market returns since 2008.
It’s been a historical run for sure.

In escrow with a literal dream property that I will rent until full retirement. It’s 38 minutes from my home in Nevada and resides in California in one of the most beautiful Tahoe mountain locations- complete with all the creature comforts of a luxury Martis Valley gated neighborhood.

At this point in life I feel the need to spend a bit and set ourselves up for retirement. I’ve been frugal and disciplined with investing for far too long. “Can’t take it with you” as they say.

I am also in my 50’s and don’t see myself working in anesthesia in 5 years. At that point my main source of income will be RE and you can bet your bottom dollar I’ll be spending a lot of time at that property even if I loose my write offs.

Pack up the wife and dogs and 38 minutes later we are there all the while keeping the tax benefits of living in Nevada. Making those memories will far outweigh the loss of income.

For now it’s a 100% RE investment.

51.50% occupation rate generated 219k in 2024. It’s a decent investment but it goes beyond that. It’s a stepping stone to a life hack when we retire.



We don’t have kids, so most of what we have we will spend or donate to charity.

Again, hard to argue against market returns but at some point it’s just a number in a bank account.I have a

Totally get that and can’t disagree. 👍🏽
Nothing touches market returns since 2008.
It’s been a historical run for sure.

In escrow with a literal dream property that I will rent until full retirement. It’s 38 minutes from my home in Nevada and resides in California in one of the most beautiful Tahoe mountain locations- complete with all the creature comforts of a luxury Martis Valley gated neighborhood.

At this point in life I feel the need to spend a bit and set ourselves up for retirement. I’ve been frugal and disciplined with investing for far too long. “Can’t take it with you” as they say.

I am also in my 50’s and don’t see myself working in anesthesia in 5 years. At that point my main source of income will be RE and you can bet your bottom dollar I’ll be spending a lot of time at that property even if I loose my write offs.

Pack up the wife and dogs and 38 minutes later we are there all the while keeping the tax benefits of living in Nevada. Making those memories will far outweigh the loss of income.

For now it’s a 100% RE investment.

51.50% occupation rate generated 219k in 2024. It’s a decent investment but it goes beyond that. It’s a stepping stone to a life hack when we retire.



We don’t have kids, so most of what we have we will spend or donate to charity.

Again, hard to argue against market returns but at some point it’s just a number in a bank account.

I have a charity I think you would love to donate to. My student loans.

 

[DocMcCoy]

Market does feel overheated but no one can predict when/if/how much it will drop. If you are young, just continue to DCA into the market. Sell some covered calls if you want to blunt drops when it feels overheated.

I’m not getting any younger, which begs the question how do you define “young”?

Mid 40s, late start into medicine just started year number 9 out of training. Really only started wealth building 6ish years ago. Minimal debt and a a home loan locked in at 2.5%. Thought 55 would be reasonable but with the COL through the rough realistically that’s only 10 more years of wealth building putting away around 200-300k a year. If that puts one at say 5-6 plus whatever the market gives or possibly takes I’m thinking there is an argument to switch to conservative investments at 3-4% now and work another 5 years till 60 vs risking losing enough in a crash that it’s going to force me to work another 5 years whether I want to or not to hit the same number?

Then again, if the market doesn’t crash and makes the historical 8ish% over the next 10-15 years that number is closer to 8-10. That’s a huge difference in quality of life and legacy inheritance for the kids.

Just seems like around 45-50, depending on your timeline, one has to reassess what “younger” is. Important considering someone my same age that plans to work till they are 65 is a lot “younger” financially than I am. What’s your take?

 

[coolforschool]

I had a partner that went through the 2001 crash, rebuilt and went through the 2008 crash. Could not bear the bear market and went all cash. For the next 2 yrs, stayed out and missed out on the bull. I have no idea if he ever went back into the market.

Point is to take emotions out of investing. History tells you that whatever market timing thesis you have typically will not beat DCA into a bear/bull market.

Market does feel overheated but no one can predict when/if/how much it will drop. If you are young, just continue to DCA into the market. Sell some covered calls if you want to blunt drops when it feels overheated.

Otherwise, even the "pros" can not market time so I doubt anyone on here can other than making "educated" guesses.

Michael Burry is the classic squirrel/nut case. He made one correct call and has been living on this nut even though he has lost many many best since. He is like a QB who had one great year and sucked after but keeps getting attention/contracts b/c owners hope he will find that magic again.

Had a colleague post-COVID tell his “finance guy” to sell everything and go all cash. You can see how that turned out. I don’t know if he ever went back in. He was also going through his third divorce at the time. Some people live interesting lives.

 

[emergentmd]

I’m not getting any younger, which begs the question how do you define “young”?

Mid 40s, late start into medicine just started year number 9 out of training. Really only started wealth building 6ish years ago. Minimal debt and a a home loan locked in at 2.5%. Thought 55 would be reasonable but with the COL through the rough realistically that’s only 10 more years of wealth building putting away around 200-300k a year. If that puts one at say 5-6 plus whatever the market gives or possibly takes I’m thinking there is an argument to switch to conservative investments at 3-4% now and work another 5 years till 60 vs risking losing enough in a crash that it’s going to force me to work another 5 years whether I want to or not to hit the same number?

Then again, if the market doesn’t crash and makes the historical 8ish% over the next 10-15 years that number is closer to 8-10. That’s a huge difference in quality of life and legacy inheritance for the kids.

Just seems like around 45-50, depending on your timeline, one has to reassess what “younger” is. Important considering someone my same age that plans to work till they are 65 is a lot “younger” financially than I am. What’s your take?

Everyone's situation is different and there are no hard rule to when to stop DCA into the market and switch to safer assets. There is an amount of risk tolerance too.

I am early 50's and upper FIRE. I will have enough to comfortably retire regardless of what the market does as I feel I am well diversified. So for my stock accounts, I am pushing for high/aggressive returns and likely will for the foreseeable future (possibly forever). I know the market returns about 10% and if I do not really need the $$$, then why not go for what historically is a safe/higher return? More to give to my heirs and legacy.

 

[emergentmd]

Had a colleague post-COVID tell his “finance guy” to sell everything and go all cash. You can see how that turned out. I don’t know if he ever went back in. He was also going through his third divorce at the time. Some people live interesting lives.

This is a mistake you see over and over and over. People get too emotional when it comes to money and the only predictor of future returns is past returns. I didn't take money out during the covid crash BUT also didn't DCA into the dip. I did put $$ into RE which worked out really well as the market spiked after Covid. Always buy when you see blood in the water and sell when there is Euphoria. It is hard to do but always seem to work out.

Unless you are at retirement and want to bullet proof your financial end of life path, I see little reason to move away from the market into bonds/cash.

If you have 5 Mil/65yrs old and want to guarantee 200K/yr to live then put it into a 4% CD/money market or Bonds. You will never run out.
If you have 20M/65 yrs old, and want to guarantee the same 200K, then do above with 5M and let the 15M ride because you will be happier.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

41 yo at a 2-2.5% liquid nw swr largely bc of invested heavy in qqq, voo, and mag 7 near covid march 2020 lows. I have no experience of a true bear market. For this reason I have built up 5-6 years of living expenses via money market/HYSA givng 4-5% over last few years for deployment if major corrections occur going from 100% stocks to now 85/15.

If markets give even 7% average cagr next 3-4 years then i will be work optional and cut to 2-3 days a week for 5 years which would cover all expenses but minimal further savings/invesetments. if there is a 50% dot com/financial crisis before 2030 then i will just work FT to 50 yo then a 3-5 year part time thereafter. Any advice or suggestions appreciated.

I got into anesthesia late, but went 4 days a week right out of the gate. As a result of both I'm nowhere near the typical sdn 8 figures, but you can't put a price on the free time to enjoy life and I never had a desire for indulgence for the sake of show and status, so I'm good. Love your plan.

 

[urge]

We went to the same school with the same result! 😂

I consider it investing school tuition.

 

[cchoukal]

I got into anesthesia late, but went 4 days a week right out of the gate. As a result of both I'm nowhere near the typical sdn 8 figures, but you can't put a price on the free time to enjoy life and I never had a desire for indulgence for the sake of show and status, so I'm good. Love your plan.

I did the same thing when I joined my current practice. I thought I'd do 4-days a week and live a simple life, but then there was simply too much work and money out there, so my 5th day I do side-work (a mix of 1099 and W-2), and that mostly eliminates the need to do weekend work, which is nice since my kids just started school and weekends are when we get to do things together. Would love to have the restraint to go truly 4 days/wk.