The Investment Thread (stocks, bonds, real estate, retirement, just not gold)

[mentos]

Don't fall for the bull trap people... Stocks gonna drop more.. ~10-15%

Nice call.

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[Chrish]

No you can find him on Reddit. He was still pumping it in December last year in the 30s and February this year in the 20s. He bought for $2-4 so he'll probably hold forever.

Risky bet considering Chinese government itself is trying to f- them over..

 

[mentos]

Bill Gates' shorts must be printing.

 

[WVUPharm2007]

Hey young people, a piece of the US economy is on sale. Might want to buy.

 

[mentos]

Hey young people, a piece of the US economy is on sale. Might want to buy.

If you want to catch a falling knife.

 

[JustFillIt]

Alright - I’m about to stick a fork in it.

Yesterday I put my house on the market for a 150% markup from where I bought it. I stand to make about 400k. Between that, my personal savings, and my 401k - i’m freaking done with pharmacy. I will rent for the rest of my life and I honestly do not care about the ownership vs. renting argument. Every time someone tells me how dumb I am I will look at my bank balance and feel much better as I go blow money on designer soda and guacamole/chips and eat them shirtless in my back yard basking in the sun (I like the simple things).

Here is my employment plan for the rest of my life going forward:

Step 1: I am going to try my hand at nursing home administration for a few years just to see how it is. I am certified and have opportunities there.

Step 2: when I get sick of nursing home administration - I will teach high school math and/or science for the remainder of my working years.

Step 3: I work in a state where pharmacist have prescriptive authority for chronic conditions. I am thinking about starting a “mobile medication management and anticoagulation” business. Essentially I will come to you and perform med management.

 

[owlegrad]

If you want to catch a falling knife.

As opposed to buying high? I’ll take the knife, thanks. It’s pointless to try to figure out the exact bottom and by the time it recovers it will feel “too late” to get back in anyway.

In reality I think dollar cost average is best. Up or down in the short term we can be highly confident that long term the market will go up. Don’t try to time it, just always be buying. The return is greater when you buy when the market is down.

 

[JustFillIt]

If you want to catch a falling knife.

Yea - I totally agree with this. We got a ways to go before this bear is done feeding.

August/sept is when I start buying back in. Maybe…

 

[mentos]

I cashed out my Roth when VTI was 226. I can see it going down another 10-15% from here. But if it quickly goes up 15% back to 226 then I'm back where I sold.

 

[WVUPharm2007]

As opposed to buying high? I’ll take the knife, thanks. It’s pointless to try to figure out the exact bottom and by the time it recovers it will feel “too late” to get back in anyway.

In reality I think dollar cost average is best. Up or down in the short term we can be highly confident that long term the market will go up. Don’t try to time it, just always be buying. The return is greater when you buy when the market is down.

This is what I do 99% of the time. But when the S&P hit 2600 in Mar 2020, I bought. And now that it's under 4000, I'm buying. Like Warren Buffett says, buy when others are selling, sell when others are buying. If it goes down further, so what. Buy more. Unless you think the US economy is done producing value for the rest of eternity, it will go back up again at some point.

 

[owlegrad]

I cashed out my Roth when VTI was 226. I can see it going down another 10-15% from here. But if it quickly goes up 15% back to 226 then I'm back where I sold.

I didn’t realize you could cash out a Roth. Was there a penalty or how does that work?

Anyway as long as you have a plan to get back in, more power to you. If you got out at 226 and will get back in at 226, you might as well have held. If you get back in before 226, congratulations. If you get in after it is above 226, I am sorry.

 

[mentos]

I didn’t realize you could cash out a Roth. Was there a penalty or how does that work?

Anyway as long as long as you have a plan to get back in, more power to you. If you got out at 226 and will get back in at 226, you might as well have held. If you get back in before 226, congratulations. If you get in after it is above 226, I am sorry.

I meant I sold VTI and it's now sitting as cash in my Roth.

 

[Rouelle]

People used that exact phrase “catching a falling knife” when I bought USO a couple years ago. I’m up 185%.

 

[owlegrad]

People used that exact phrase “catching a falling knife” when I bought USO a couple years ago. I’m up 185%.

It’s funny how there are different terms for the same action depending on how you view it. One man’s “catching a falling knife” is another man’s “lowering cost basis” or chance to load up on a great deal.

I suspect I know who will be wealthier in the long run. Not wanting to buy stocks when they are on sale makes no sense to me but to each their own.

 

[JustFillIt]

It’s funny how there are different terms for the same action depending on how you view it. One man’s “catching a falling knife” is another man’s “lowering cost basis” or change to load up on a great deal.

I suspect I know who will be wealthier in the long run. Not wanting to buy stocks when they are on sale makes no sense to me but to each their own.

I agree with you 100%. For me, I see the true sale price when the Dow is somewhere around 22-25k.

The thing is - with the way things are right now, business/people are going to need liquidity in the coming months to years. And obviously the largest pool of liquidity is in the world markets.

I do not think it will be a crash due to panic - I think it will be a major retraction due to the need for liquidity. We are starting to hear rumblings about the state of consumer credit/debt load right now and it’s not pretty. This will send a shock wave through market participants as so many rush to pay the bill.

The bill is sitting in the mail right now. It’s not quite overdue yet but it’s coming. The unsustainable levels of CoL will create a consumer debt crisis which will be very ugly.

Honestly - the CoL is starting to look like the stuff that revolutions are made of throughout history. As Les Mis says it - “the fat ones will be cut down to size”. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not calling for revolution - I’m too fat and tired to participate in such shenanigans…. But I am a student of history and I see it happening now.

Anyways - my point is that it’s a bear market until this stuff gets sorted out. The sale price is not determined yet.

 

[owlegrad]

I agree with you 100%. For me, I see the true sale price when the Dow is somewhere around 22-25k.

The thing is - with the way things are right now, business/people are going to need liquidity in the coming months to years. And obviously the largest pool of liquidity is in the world markets.

I do not think it will be a crash due to panic - I think it will be a major retraction due to the need for liquidity. We are starting to hear rumblings about the state of consumer credit/debt load right now and it’s not pretty. This will send a shock wave through market participants as so many rush to pay the bill.

The bill is sitting in the mail right now. It’s not quite overdue yet but it’s coming. The unsustainable levels of CoL will create a consumer debt crisis which will be very ugly.

Honestly - the CoL is starting to look like the stuff that revolutions are made of throughout history. As Les Mis says it - “the fat ones will be cut down to size”. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not calling for revolution - I’m too fat and tired to participate in such shenanigans…. But I am a student of history and I see it happening now.

Anyways - my point is that it’s a bear market until this stuff gets sorted out. The sale price is not determined yet.

Yeah I am not sure what it will take to get a revolution. I think as long as the standard of living is increasing it will be hard to revolutionize. I suspect we will have UBI (or at least universal healthcare) before we have the guillotine, but what do I know?

The sale price can never be determined before the recovery (the recovery determines the bottom) so it’s pointless to try and time it as being the exact best sale price. We know it is cheaper now than it has been in a while so might as well be buying now. If it goes lower, great, buy more. When Coke Zero is on sale I don’t say to myself that I should wait to see if it will be cheaper in the future I just go ahead and buy it. Same with stocks. They are cheaper? Great, my money will buy more shares. They went down more? Awesome, I am getting even better bargains.

It’s just inconceivable to me that people wait for them to be overpriced again before they buy more. But to each their own.

 

[mentos]

Yeah I am not sure what it will take to get a revolution. I think as long as the standard of living is increasing it will be hard to revolutionize. I suspect we will have UBI (or at least universal healthcare) before we have the guillotine, but what do I know?

The sale price can never be determined before the recovery (the recovery determines the bottom) so it’s pointless to try and time it as being the exact best sale price. We know it is cheaper now than it has been in a while so might as well be buying now. If it goes lower, great, buy more. When Coke Zero is on sale I don’t say to myself that I should wait to see if it will be cheaper in the future I just go ahead and buy it. Same with stocks. They are cheaper? Great, my money will buy more shares. They went down more? Awesome, I am getting even better bargains.

It’s just inconceivable to me that people wait for them to be overpriced again before they buy more. But to each their own.

Problem is you can only contribute 6k/year to a Roth. So if you buy the dip too soon then you'll run out of funds fast and be left holding the bag. If you buy every week in taxable account then it doesn't matter I guess.

 

[owlegrad]

Problem is you can only contribute 6k/year to a Roth. So if you buy the dip too soon then you'll run out of funds fast and be left holding the bag. If you buy every week in taxable account then it doesn't matter I guess.

Daily, weekly, monthly, annually as long as it is recurrent it will even out over time.

 

[Rockinacoustic]

Problem is you can only contribute 6k/year to a Roth. So if you buy the dip too soon then you'll run out of funds fast and be left holding the bag. If you buy every week in taxable account then it doesn't matter I guess.

Investing doesn't have to be like gambling you know...

 

[Dred Pirate]

Problem is you can only contribute 6k/year to a Roth. So if you buy the dip too soon then you'll run out of funds fast and be left holding the bag. If you buy every week in taxable account then it doesn't matter I guess.

dollar cost averaging - I put $500 a month into my Roth.

Although this article analyzes the difference in buying on the best vs worst day each year- and honestly, it isn't huge. So time in the market is more important than timing the market.

Time, Not Timing, Is What Matters

The time you’re invested in the market is more important than investment timing. The longer you invest, the more you improve your chances of a positive outcome.

www.capitalgroup.com

 

[mentos]

During the last recession, the market took 6 years to recover. Just saying.

 

[owlegrad]

During the last recession, the market took 6 years to recover. Just saying.

And how much money would someone have now if they were buying during that whole time? The longer the recovery, the more time you have to buy!

 

[JustFillIt]

i do not try to time the market. I just try to assume how much money is out there and available for discretionary spending.

I have a savings account that all of my income goes to. I have the savings account deposit 3k into my checking account every 2 weeks. When I find myself pulling more money out of my savings over and over again and I’m not doing anything crazy - I assume that the 60% that live paycheck to paycheck are going broke and I’m bearish. When there is plenty left over and I’m flush with cash - I’m bullish..

I dunno - maybe I’m weird but this is my approach to the macro trends of the market. Right now, I’m pulling money from my savings like crazy to keep up.. I’m defiantly bearish as I feel the country is going to need liquidity and they will need it fast to stay afloat.

 

[Dred Pirate]

During the last recession, the market took 6 years to recover. Just saying.

True. But if you stayed the coarse and rode the ride up you would be doing great. Been there. Done that. And doing well

 

[Dred Pirate]

i do not try to time the market. I just try to assume how much money is out there and available for discretionary spending.

this by definition is market timing

Any time you try to out think the market and change your investments based on "what you think" you are market timing. Maybe it is the bogglehead in me, but I see consistent contributions win out the majority of the time.

 

[JustFillIt]

Alright - I’m about to stick a fork in it.

Yesterday I put my house on the market for a 150% markup from where I bought it. I stand to make about 400k. Between that, my personal savings, and my 401k - i’m freaking done with pharmacy. I will rent for the rest of my life and I honestly do not care about the ownership vs. renting argument. Every time someone tells me how dumb I am I will look at my bank balance and feel much better as I go blow money on designer soda and guacamole/chips and eat them shirtless in my back yard basking in the sun (I like the simple things).

Here is my employment plan for the rest of my life going forward:

Step 1: I am going to try my hand at nursing home administration for a few years just to see how it is. I am certified and have opportunities there.

Step 2: when I get sick of nursing home administration - I will teach high school math and/or science for the remainder of my working years.

Step 3: I work in a state where pharmacist have prescriptive authority for chronic conditions. I am thinking about starting a “mobile medication management and anticoagulation” business. Essentially I will come to you and perform med management.

Damn fellas/ladies - my house sold 2 days on the market at full asking price….

Wth am I going to do with this money…. I suppose I’ll take a vacation or something. Maybe I’ll get a subscription to the Schwans truck and just go wild.

Or - maybe I’ll finally buy some new socks…. I think I may still have a few pairs of socks from when I was a teenager.

 

[LFA20]

I still feel like a genius for selling my 202 shares of tesla at $4 above my break even price of $790 at exactly 12 days ago...

 

[Dred Pirate]

Damn fellas/ladies - my house sold 2 days on the market at full asking price….

Wth am I going to do with this money…. I suppose I’ll take a vacation or something. Maybe I’ll get a subscription to the Schwans truck and just go wild.

Or - maybe I’ll finally buy some new socks…. I think I may still have a few pairs of socks from when I was a teenager.

cocaine and hookers here we come!.

 

[PharmDBro2017]

Damn fellas/ladies - my house sold 2 days on the market at full asking price….

Wth am I going to do with this money…. I suppose I’ll take a vacation or something. Maybe I’ll get a subscription to the Schwans truck and just go wild.

Or - maybe I’ll finally buy some new socks…. I think I may still have a few pairs of socks from when I was a teenager.

It is a sellers market forsure.

Have you found a new home? Buying in this environment, with high interest rates.... can get ugly.

 

[mentos]

I still feel like a genius for selling my 202 shares of tesla at $4 above my break even price of $790 at exactly 12 days ago...

Elon and his brother are geniuses for selling at 1200+.

 

[Chrish]

cocaine and hookers here we come!.

“I got kids to feed”

@JustFillIt

 

[JustFillIt]

“I got kids to feed”

@JustFillIt

Haha, yea! Not so sure I’m into the cocaine and hookers thing. I mean - I’m pretty open to things but this just does not seem right, right now…

 

[JustFillIt]

<spam deleted>

Alright - now see - THIS is what I’m going to do with my new found wealth. This seems 100% legit right off the bat.

 

[LFA20]

Tesla is consolidating hard right now... to 52-week low.

 

[mentos]

Tesla is consolidating hard right now... to 52-week low.

When do you plan on buying?

 

[LFA20]

When do you plan on buying?

$500s

 

[LFA20]

So tempted to buyyyyy

 

[Dred Pirate]

So tempted to buyyyyy

So Tesla is only profitable because of their selling of carbon credits, once the legacy makes have competitive electric cars and those carbon credits go away, does everybody think they can keep up their profits?

 

[mentos]

So Tesla is only profitable because of their selling of carbon credits, once the legacy makes have competitive electric cars and those carbon credits go away, does everybody think they can keep up their profits?

That was the case before, plus they profited from selling BTC at the top. However they've been jacking up their prices due to "supply constraints" yet posted record profit each quarter. People still buy no matter what... Model 3 used to be 35k, now it's 47k. Model Y used to be 47k, now it's a whooping 63k. I have no idea why people pay these absurd prices when you can buy a good EV for half the price, but I also don't know why people buy $1200+ iPhones either. I've never understood the fanboy/cult mentality.

PE is still high at 85 which is twice as high as other growth companies like AMD with PE 35. So I personally wouldn't touch it unless it's around $300/share.

I'm in the market for an EV now and have test driven Model Y, ID4, Ioniq5, Leaf, Bolt, XC40 Recharge. Have yet to try Mach E, EV6, hopefully will get to try BZX4 soon. Probably won't try BMW, Audi, Jaguar or Porsche because they're too expensive. I really don't get the hype. Model Y has a terribly uncomfortable, bumpy ride. The lack of knobs and physical buttons are annoying. I did not enjoy driving it at all.

 

[owlegrad]

I drove a Model Y. I liked it. But it’s too rich for my blood.

I am curious what good EV you can get for half the price though? When I shopped EVs years ago (before car prices exploded) I didn’t find any good deals to be frank. Tesla seemed pretty competitively priced for comparable cars to me.

 

[mentos]

I drove a Model Y. I liked it. But it’s too rich for my blood.

I am curious what good EV you can get for half the price though? When I shopped EVs years ago (before car prices exploded) I didn’t find any good deals to be frank. Tesla seemed pretty competitively priced for comparable cars to me.

A base Volkswagen ID4 is $41,230 and qualifies for the $7500 federal tax credit and whatever state rebate where you live (for me it's $2500 rebate). So that's $31,230 after incentives for a compact SUV EV.

In comparison, a base Model Y is $62,990 and does not qualify for the $7500 federal tax credit or my state's EV tax rebates (vehicles over $50k do not qualify).

So $62,990 vs $31,230. The Model Y is actually a little more than twice as much as the ID.4.

Teslas were competitive when they were reasonably priced and qualified for the federal tax credits and state rebates, but not anymore IMO. They do not feel like 50-150k vehicles. BMWs, Audis, Porsches, Jaguars, Polestars etc feel much better built.

All the EVs I mentioned above are tens of thousands cheaper and qualify for the federal tax credit and state rebates. Chevy Bolt, Chevy SUV, Nissan Leaf (soon Ariya), Hyundai Ioniq5, Kia EV6, Ford Mach E, Kia Niro EV, Hyundai Kona EV, Mini EV, Toyota BZX4, Subaru Solterra, etc. In a couple years there will be many more reasonably priced EVs to choose from.

 

[owlegrad]

Fair enough but the other manufacturers are going to run out of federal rebates eventually as well. And obviously the state rebates are going to vary from state to state.

 

[mentos]

Fair enough but the other manufacturers are going to run out of federal rebates eventually as well. And obviously the state rebates are going to vary from state to state.

The other manufacturers don't jack up their prices like Tesla does. Volvo XC40 Recharge is 53k, 14k cheaper than Model Y and feels much more luxurious and well built. Model Y feels like a 40k vehicle because that's what it originally was supposed to be.

 

[RXDOC1986]

As much as I hate TESLA and all electrics, with TESLA, you are paying for their R&D, early innovation, fearless trail blazing. Tesla is overpriced for what you get! Tesla Motors is the most valuable automaker in the world, while producing less cars altogether than Ford makes F-150 trucks!!

 

[WVUPharm2007]

Tesla S Plaid is probably the best performance car deal in the world right now. It's insane how much performance you get for the money.

IMO, the Polestar 2 is the best electric deal going.

 

[mentos]

Tesla S Plaid is probably the best performance car deal in the world right now. It's insane how much performance you get for the money.

IMO, the Polestar 2 is the best electric deal going.

Polestar 2 is nice. However I'm not sure how reliable it is since it's built on the same platform as Volvo XC40 Recharge. I test drove a C40 Recharge, the coupe version of the XC40 and it had an error code "car not parked" everytime you put it in park. The dealer said they couldn't figure out how to get rid of it LoL.

The cheapest EV, and still a great one is the Nissan Leaf for around 20k after incentives. Cheaper than most ICE cars.

 

[RXDOC1986]

Tesla S Plaid is probably the best performance car deal in the world right now. It's insane how much performance you get for the money.

IMO, the Polestar 2 is the best electric deal going.

With all due respect to all knowing Musk/Tesla - you are basically riding around in a refrigerator, an appliance. Nothing will ever replace an ICE.
The visceral noise, smell, feeling of a V8 or V12 engine note! Do you think a PLAID (the color choice says it ALL) will ever be worth $26million in 50 years like a bunch of exotics are? No, it will be crushed and recycled like a washer/dryer.

 

[mentos]

With all due respect to all knowing Musk/Tesla - you are basically riding around in a refrigerator, an appliance. Nothing will ever replace an ICE.
The visceral noise, smell, feeling of a V8 or V12 engine note! Do you think a PLAID (the color choice says it ALL) will ever be worth $26million in 50 years like a bunch of exotics are? No, it will be crushed and recycled like a washer/dryer.

A Tesla is a golf cart with an iPad.

 

[owlegrad]

I am sure there were people who thought nothing would replace a horse drawn buggy either.

 

[WVUPharm2007]

With all due respect to all knowing Musk/Tesla - you are basically riding around in a refrigerator, an appliance. Nothing will ever replace an ICE.
The visceral noise, smell, feeling of a V8 or V12 engine note! Do you think a PLAID (the color choice says it ALL) will ever be worth $26million in 50 years like a bunch of exotics are? No, it will be crushed and recycled like a washer/dryer.

Musk is far from all knowing. He's a man child with a physics degree that thinks he knows everything about everything.

But what is indisputable is that 0-60 in 2-flat at what a Plaid costs is an incredible value.

Electric is going to win in the end. It's inevitable. I get it. Engines make cool noises. Loud noise fun. But all technology becomes outdated eventually. This will include the internal combustion engine.

The biggest car dudes on the planet are shocked by how truly awesome the acceleration is. Like when Doug Demuro took it for a spin.