The Investment Thread (stocks, bonds, real estate, retirement, just not gold)

This forum made possible through the generous support of SDN members, donors, and sponsors. Thank you.
wagrxm2000 said:
Do you think the fed well react and drastically raise rates or let us go through a period of high inflation?
Click to expand...

They would rather increase rate now at a steady pace (3x per year). If they wait too long then they would need to raise rates at a much faster pace. Even then, it might be too late.

My concern with inflation is debt....not just government debt but also corporation and personal debt. The government would have three options to fight its deficit - raise taxes, make drastic cuts, or borrow more money to pay for its medicare, social security and pension obligations. My guess is they will keep on borrowing but since its debt is already high, it would need to offer a much higher interest rate which would also increase overall borrowing cost for businesses and consumers.

Foreign countries, specifically China, are big buyers of U.S debt. If the trade war intensified and the dollar lose its global currency status, the value of the dollar would get crushed. That is why Trump policy is so dangerous....high debt, instability, constant fighting with other countries might very well hurt the U.S in the long run.


Sent from my iPhone using SDN mobile
Members don't see this ad.
 
Real estate rentals with cap rate 4-10% is ok but you don't need to buy hard assets, we all know everything goes up in inflationary period. Business adjust their pricing as their cost of goods sold go up and they make more money. Skip the hard assets that don't do jack sh1t.
 
i feel the fed funds rate goes back to retest 15% over the next couple decades. one way to tackle high inflation when it arrives

oh and lookeee here. my chinese stocks and casino stocks are up another 5-10% today. made a killing this week
 
Members don't see this ad :)
Momus said:
Real estate rentals with cap rate 4-10% is ok but you don't need to buy hard assets, we all know everything goes up in inflationary period. Business adjust their pricing as their cost of goods sold go up and they make more money. Skip the hard assets that don't do jack sh1t.
Click to expand...

Not always true:

ImageUploadedBySDN1541089676.561013.jpg


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fo...tock-investors-should-root-for-inflation/amp/


Sent from my iPhone using SDN mobile
 
Momus said:
Yes, data mining on the decade for any result you want... Feds keep raising interest rate, what inflation are you taking about?
Click to expand...

Then read the whole article. There are other samples as well.


Sent from my iPhone using SDN mobile
 
The question you need to ask yourself is....if inflation is tame, why does the Fed feel there is a great need to increase interest rate? Their action speaks volume.


Sent from my iPhone using SDN mobile
 
Went from -$3k last week to -$300 today.
 
I'm +5.7% for the week, but -7.8% for the month. It's a shame I've redirected my money for the moment, I would have liked to buy some during the dip.
 
Undefeated Gaul said:
Last time rates were 15% federal debt to GDP was about 30%.

Now the number is much worse. The official figure is actually understated. GDP has been massaged with new metrics the last few years. The deflator is not realistic. Unfunded liabilities are off balance sheet. The DoD will not clear up the matter of 21T in undocumentable adjustments.

And has anybody noticed how the debt quietly goes up a hundred billion in month now?

Two years ago all those Tbills under 12 months were being rolled over again and again at practically zero percent. Now over 2%. Even if the long end stays flat, it's the short end that will kill the government. The average maturity is like 6 years and it will likely drop with the new 2 month tbill.
Every 1% rise will make the interest line item go up about 150B. So if we go to 15%, the current debt would cost us 2.25Trillion per annum. This could only work with some bizarre scenarios such as the Fed buying every auction in full. In effect nullifying the debt as interest expense would be rebated to the Treasury. But what would that do to all that junk debt that fed the buyback frenzy of the last decade? Real estate? Student loans? Auto loans? EM debt denominated in USD?

Nah, there will have to be a restructuring of all sovereign debt. it will get hammered out in a new Bretton Woods or Plaza Accord. Probably during a scripted war just like WWI and WWII. You can see the preparations being made for this change in the East. We're at the stage now where it's being decided who will get the blame for the drastic changes a new system will bring. Each side will blame the enemy in a hot war.
Click to expand...

lord999, is that you?
 
401k limit up 19k in 2019. I got a silly $1 raise ($2080/yr), so $500 more to 401k. I guess that ain't too bad?

Debating to buy a property but idk.. Everything looks fully valued o_O Crash, can I have it?
 
Members don't see this ad :)
Seeing as people shouldn't consider their primary house as an investment, it's a luxury buy, sure go ahead. I don't even add my house value to my net worth. We have no plans on ever selling.
 
Momus said:
401k limit up 19k in 2019. I got a silly $1 raise ($2080/yr), so $500 more to 401k. I guess that ain't too bad?

Debating to buy a property but idk.. Everything looks fully valued o_O;
Click to expand...

I thought the increased standard deduction, rising interest rates and stock market correction would slow down the housing market, but the rich people keep buying up all the inventory and house prices keep going up and up. It would suck to purchase a 600k home and see its value drop by 100k in less than a year.
 
mentos said:
I thought the increased standard deduction, rising interest rates and stock market correction would slow down the housing market, but the rich people keep buying up all the inventory and house prices keep going up and up. It would suck to purchase a 600k home and see its value drop by 100k in less than a year.
Click to expand...

Only if selling
 
wagrxm2000 said:
Only if selling
Click to expand...

It would suck if you bought a house for 600k and a year later its value dropped to 500k. If you waited a year to buy then you would have saved 100k minus the cost of rent for a year.
 
mentos said:
It would suck if you bought a house for 600k and a year later its value dropped to 500k. If you waited a year to buy then you would have saved 100k minus the cost of rent for a year.
Click to expand...

Like I said though it depends on what your goal is, if that home is going to be your primary home for the next 30 years, who cares. It'll be worth more when you retire.

Not everything should be seen as an investment.
 
Undefeated Gaul said:
There's some brinkmanship between Xi and the Trumpster. What better time for a RMB 20-25% devaluation but right before the election to upset Trump's stock bubble?

If the RMB-CNY link is valid then the paper price of gold could get wacked as collateral damage.
aliens-stay-frosty-300x162.jpeg
Click to expand...

I see Carol is back again
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 users
BMBiology said:
because the stock market makes bets on what the economy will be like 12-18 months from now.
Click to expand...
Nothing continues to change though.

People keep bringing up the same points but at what point does it actually matter?
 
the nasdaq enters or nearly reaches bear market territory in 2019 after a failed attempt at reaching a new high in the next few months
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
74777 said:
the nasdaq enters or nearly reaches bear market territory in 2019 after a failed attempt at reaching a new high in the next few months
Click to expand...

Earnings so far are propping the market-- but the earnings weren't really that great so far. Both AAPL and AMZN aren't looking great. I think we make get the annual Santa Claus rally. However, I don't even know if we even get to retest the prior highs before the market starts dropping again. There just aren't a lot of catalysts I can see and a the interest rate issue is still a major signal for funds to continue reallocating money outside of stocks.

There was a lot of money to made this week on the bounce up. However, I think we have entered choppy market territory and steady rise up may be gone for a long time until a new catalyst enters the market.

I closed most of my trades from last week, however I'm still in 2 stocks. I bought IQ at 20.65, which is a Chinese streaming video company. It has taken an extreme 50% plus decline, and I'm betting it will stabilize and head back up if tariff agreements are made. I'm betting that most of the downside is baked in, but I'm willing to hold it down to a $1/share loss at 19.65.
My other trade I'm holding on is Disney (DIS) which reports earnings this week. If the market doesn't see too much red, I see DIS heading up into earnings and will probably close most of my position before the earnings call.
 
I'm up 2% for the year now. Wish I bought more during the dip.
 
Just got back even on my Amazon stock. Time to start making some money!
 
I'm glad I sold NEOS at $8.50 because it has been tanking lately. That was a pending FDA approval gamble that paid off.
 
That's awesome, a stupid commercialized fake holiday like Black Friday in the U.S.
 
pezdispenser said:
401k: 1.7% (yesterday)
Roth IRA: 10%
Taxable: 12%

But I'm on a spending spree this month. Bought 80k of stocks and index funds so far and still have cash to buy more if they dip further.
Click to expand...

Still buying?


Sent from my iPhone using SDN mobile
 
Please drop more so I can TLH back :-0

I don't like having multiple funds -__-;
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Next unread thread

Similar threads

P
Real estate investment/speculation
Replies
35
Views
3K
mentos
mentos
CetiAlphaFive
What's with the obsession with crypto and stocks that a certain personality type of pharmacists have?
Replies
17
Views
2K
RxPreceptor
RxPreceptor
A
Is this real? 300k income as a pharmacist?
2
Replies
50
Views
6K
pharm B
pharm B
Lexington2012
Rite Aid just filed for bankruptcy
Replies
9
Views
1K
RxPreceptor
RxPreceptor
sunnyandseventytwo
Easy job where you don’t do anything or real job with real responsibilities?
Replies
17
Views
1K
Dred Pirate
Dred Pirate
Top