The Investment Thread (stocks, bonds, real estate, retirement, just not gold)

[BMBiology]

Problem with $1k a month is all it's going to do is cause inflation. He says it'll be paid by VAT tax but do you really think companies are just going to accept it without increasing the costs of goods? Well or they would just leave the country.

I don’t buy into the argument that if you increase tax on business, then they will pass on the cost to consumers. If that is true, then why do businesses fight so hard? If consumers would need to eat it then what is the problem?

The truth is...that is not how it works. It is more complex than that. Trump decreased tax on businesses so based on the same principle, prices would have gone down right?

I also don’t buy into the argument that companies would leave our country. Where would Amazon, Facebook go? To Europe where the VAT is already at 20%? We are their biggest market! They are not going anywhere.

I think it is clear that IA/automation will cause deflation. It would be cheaper to make things and businesses would compete on price.

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[BMBiology]

That **** was composed by an AI. This is AI composer 1.0. They feed it examples of songs from the past that elicit emotion. Imagine what AI music will sound like in 10 years.

Amazing but yet, freakish.

 

[wagrxm2000]

I don’t buy into the argument that if you increase tax on business, then they will pass on the cost to consumers. If that is true, then why do businesses fight so hard? If consumers would need to eat it then what is the problem?

The truth is...that is not how it works. It is more complex than that. Trump decreased tax on businesses so based on the same principle, prices would have gone down right?

I also don’t buy into the argument that companies would leave our country. Where would Amazon, Facebook go? To Europe where the VAT is already at 20%? We are their biggest market! They are not going anywhere.

I think it is clear that IA/automation will cause deflation. It would be cheaper to make things and businesses would compete on price.

All I can say is do your own research, most would agree a VAT tax hurts the poor more then the wealthy.

 

[BMBiology]

All I can say is do your own research, most would agree a VAT tax hurts the poor more then the wealthy.

Getting $12,000 a year would hurt the poor?

 

[wagrxm2000]

Getting $12,000 a year would hurt the poor?

Didn't he state they don't get their other free stuff like food stamps?

If it's a straight $1k plus everything else, sure it would help but if I was getting medicaid, food stamps, etc plus another $1k a month, who would work?

 

[BMBiology]

Didn't he state they don't get their other free stuff like food stamps?

If it's a straight $1k plus everything else, sure it would help but if I was getting medicaid, food stamps, etc plus another $1k a month, who would work?

$1 k a month in addition in what they make. Obviously everyone needs to work to live a meaningful life.

Food stamps, welfare would count in $1 k but not healthcare. So, yes the poor and most middle class would benefit.

 

[BMBiology]

Xi is just stringing Trump along and buying time.

China is just buying time. The closer it is to the 2020 election, the more desperate Trump will get.

 

[wagrxm2000]

$1 k a month in addition in what they make. Obviously everyone needs to work to live a meaningful life.

Food stamps, welfare would count in $1 k but not healthcare. So, yes the poor and most middle class would benefit.

So Americans are going to leach off everyone else even more?

It's already well known it's better to not work at all then make say $50k a year in some states. Now that salary will increase even more.

 

[BMBiology]

So Americans are going to leach off everyone else even more?

It's already well known it's better to not work at all then make say $50k a year in some states. Now that salary will increase even more.

Why shouldn’t every American from the poor to the ultra rich benefit from Facebook, Google, Amazon?

Why should Amazon pay zero federal tax? It is not Amazon fault. It is our fault from not updating our tax codes. Meanwhile, Amazon is using their billions to destroy industry like pharmacy and therefore, destroying millions of jobs. How is this good for Americans?

 

[wagrxm2000]

Why shouldn’t every American from the poor to the ultra rich benefit from Facebook, Google, Amazon?

Why should Amazon pay zero federal tax? It is not Amazon fault. It is our fault from not updating our tax codes. Meanwhile, Amazon is using their billions to destroy industry like pharmacy and therefore, destroying millions of jobs. How is this good for Americans?

So you don't think the poor should work?

The poor live better then the middle class today. They live better then the rich in counties like Russia.

 

[BMBiology]

So you don't think the poor should work?

I would argue that the current government policies discourage someone from working. If you are receiving food stamps, welfare, why would you work? If you make “too much” then those subsidies would be cut. There is no incentive to work.

That is not how it works with the $1 k freedom dividend. You still get $1 k a month in addition to what you make from work. I would get it. You would get it. Every adults would get it.

 

[wagrxm2000]

I would argue that the current government policies discourage someone from working. If you are receiving food stamps, welfare, why would you work? If you make “too much” then those subsidies would be cut. There is no incentive to work.

That is not how it works with the $1 k freedom dividend. You still get $1 k a month in addition to what you make from work. I would get it. You would get it. Everyone would get it.

That's what I'm saying though, the "poor" and lazy class would only expand. No one would want to be in the middle class, lower to middle range.

If your family is making $50k, you should not be working unless you love your job.

Everything but Medicaid would have to be eliminated.

 

[grizzlesgrizzlies]

Problem with $1k a month is all it's going to do is cause inflation. He says it'll be paid by VAT tax but do you really think companies are just going to accept it without increasing the costs of goods? Well or they would just leave the country.

Oh and China is actually lowering some VAT tax to help it's economy. Go ahead and put a VAT tax in place and really watch us go into a recession.

QE did much more damage in terms of inflating the housing market. Giving everyone 1k per month will help the poor/middle class as they will spend it on necessities. Yang calls his plan "capitalism where income doesn't start at zero"

 

[BMBiology]

That's what I'm saying though, the "poor" and lazy class would only expand. No one would want to be in the middle class, lower to middle range.

If your family is making $50k, you should not be working unless you love your job.

Everything but Medicaid would have to be eliminated.

I don’t get your points.

I hate to repeat myself...$1 k a month is not enough to live a meaningful life.

Let’s say someone who is currently getting $1.2 k a month in government subsidies like food stamps, etc then this person would not get the $1 k freedom dividend. However, if this person works and makes $2.5 k a month in salary then this person would no longer get the government subsidies but instead he would get the $1 k freedom dividend.

$2.5 k salary + $1 k freedom dividend > $1.2 k government subsidies

 

[wagrxm2000]

I don’t get your points.

I hate to repeat myself...$1 k a month is not enough to live a meaningful life.

Let’s say someone who is currently getting $1,200 a month in government subsidies like food stamps, etc then this person would not get the $1 k freedom dividend. However, if this person works and makes $1.5 a month in salary then this person would no longer get the government subsidies but instead he would get the $1 k freedom dividend.

$1.5 k salary + $1 k freedom dividend > $1.2 k government subsidies

What is he saying is being eliminated?

A family can make $6k alone in food stamps is that gone? They can get thousands from EITC is that gone? I could go on.

So do the poor lose as much as they gain? If so then yes they will be paying more with a VAT tax. If not then they won't work.

 

[grizzlesgrizzlies]

So you don't think the poor should work?

The poor live better then the middle class today. They live better then the rich in counties like Russia.

The 4th industrial revolution means that AI and automation will make our skills obsolete. Instead of having technology ONLY benefiting capital, a wealth redistribution scheme helps everyone.

If the poor as well as the majority of the middle class are unable to find work due to technological employment, how are they able to be consumers and purchase goods? Our capitalistic system will collapse without consumers.

 

[grizzlesgrizzlies]

What is he saying is being eliminated?

A family can make $6k alone in food stamps is that gone? They can get thousands from EITC is that gone? I could go on.

So do the poor lose as much as they gain? If so then yes they will be paying more with a VAT tax. If not then they won't work.

Under Yang's proposal they have a choice of keeping their benefits OR receiving the 1k per month. If someone only gets $400 worth of govt benefits they will get a $600 check as the dividend to total 1k a month, but if their current benefits exceed 1k/month, they can elect to forego collecting the freedom dividend and keep their existing benefits.

 

[wagrxm2000]

Under Yang's proposal they have a choice of keeping their benefits OR receiving the 1k per month. If someone only gets $400 worth of govt benefits they will get a $600 check as the dividend to total 1k a month, but if their current benefits exceed 1k/month, they can elect to forego collecting the freedom dividend and keep their existing benefits.

So if their benefits exceeds $1k a month, they will experience higher taxes?

How does that help them?

 

[grizzlesgrizzlies]

So if their benefits exceeds $1k a month, they will experience higher taxes?

How does that help them?

What taxes are you referring to? I'm not sure if or how government benefits are taxed but the 1k freedom dividend would be tax free.

 

[wagrxm2000]

What taxes are you referring to? I'm not sure if or how government benefits are taxed but the 1k freedom dividend would be tax free.

In order to pay for it he is proposing a 10% VAT tax.

Nothing is free but I suppose we can go into more debt, it doesn't matter anyways right?

 

[BMBiology]

In order to pay for it he is proposing a 10% VAT tax.

Nothing is free but I suppose we can go into more debt, it doesn't matter anyways right?

How is taxing Facebook when someone click on an Facebook ad cause the government to incur more debt? I don't follow your logic.

 

[wagrxm2000]

How is taxing Facebook when someone click on an Facebook ad cause the government to incur more debt?

Huh?

The VAT tax is to cover the $1k per month.

Which goes back to my original point. If the poor don't gain anything since they qualify already for more per month, the VAT tax would only hurt them.

I'm not going to read his plan though since he has no chance of beating bernie or biden

 

[BMBiology]

Huh?

The VAT tax is to cover the $1k per month.

Which goes back to my original point. If the poor don't gain anything since they qualify already for more per month, the VAT tax would only hurt them.

I'm not going to read his plan though since he has no chance of beating bernie or biden

You are all over the place. I don't think you get how it works.

If you are poor or don't want to work and collect your $1.2 k in government subsidies then you can continue to collect it. No one is taking that away from you.

 

[wagrxm2000]

You are all over the place. I don't think you get how it works.

If you are poor or don't want to work and collect your $1.2 k in government subsidies then you can continue to collect it. No one is taking that away from you.

Let's try this again. If you get $1.2k then you continue to collect however you don't get to benefit on the extra $1k per month.

So what happens to those people? Well the VAT tax is going to cause them to pay more without seeing the benefits.

How hard is that to see? A VAT tax hurts the poor.

 

[grizzlesgrizzlies]

A VAT is more than fair for businesses when they no longer have to factor in expenses for paying employees

 

[BMBiology]

Let's try this again. If you get $1.2k then you continue to collect however you don't get to benefit on the extra $1k per month.

So what happens to those people? Well the VAT tax is going to cause them to pay more without seeing the benefits.

How hard is that to see? A VAT tax hurts the poor.

And letting Amazon not pay federal taxes and using those billions to destroy industries help the poor?

IA/automation is coming whether you like it or not. Having some basic income would help society as a whole. It gives people a peace of mind and increase their overall health and well being.

 

[wagrxm2000]

And letting Amazon not pay federal taxes and using those billions to destroy industries help the poor?

So we should hurt the poor even more by making Amazon pay more taxes?

The cost will always end up being paid by the consumer.

 

[BMBiology]

So we should hurt the poor even more by making Amazon pay more taxes?

The cost will always end up being paid by the consumer.

If Amazon can increase their price then why hasn’t Amazon done so already? If they can easily pass on the cost to consumers, then why would they care about it?

You make it simple when it is complex. Since amazon got a tax cut from Trump tax plan, by your logic...Amazon should have lower their price right?

Companies like Facebook, Amazon will only get bigger and bigger. Since the cost to goods will be less due to AI/automation and they will have more consumers with spending power (thanks to the $1 k freedom dividend), their profit would actually go up even with the 10% VAT.

 

[wagrxm2000]

If Amazon can increase their price then why hasn’t Amazon done so already? If they can easily pass on the cost to consumers, then why would they care about it?

You make it simple when it is complex. Since amazon got a tax cut from Trump tax plan, by your logic...Amazon should have lower their price right?

Companies like Facebook, Amazon will only get bigger and bigger. Since the cost to goods will be less due to AI/automation and they will have more consumers with spending power (thanks to the $1 k freedom dividend), their profit would actually go up even with the 10% VAT.

No that's not my point. The tax cut was to help everyone (yes I know some didn't).

You can't possibly think Amazon wouldnt increase prices if they got taxed more.

Couldn't these companies just lower their prices after automation lowers their cost so much? (I can do the same thing you are trying to say)

 

[BMBiology]

Couldn't these companies just lower their prices after automation lowers their cost so much? (I can do the same thing you are trying to say)

Yes, they will lower their price. That is why AI/automation will cause deflation. Things will be cheaper.

 

[wagrxm2000]

Yes, they will lower their price. That is why AI/automation will cause deflation. Things will be cheaper.

So we won't need a VAT tax that only hurts the consumer.

 

[BMBiology]

So we won't need a VAT tax that only hurts the consumer.

Giving everyone $1 k a month will hurt us?

 

[grizzlesgrizzlies]

The freedom dividend will benefit society by decreasing homelessness, crime, incarceration, as well as alleviating the opioid and suicide epidemic we are currently suffering from. These hidden benefits pays itself many times over. Also it will alleviate the housing shortage in cities as income is no longer tied to employment which is often geographically concentrated in cities on the coasts. We will see revitalization in the rust belt/flyover states as people will now have enough of a safety net to start their own business as well as participate in the local economy.

 

[wagrxm2000]

Giving everyone $1 k a month will hurt us?

I already answered that

But to summarize it hurts the poor...I know shocking.

 

[grizzlesgrizzlies]

I already answered that

But to summarize it hurts the poor...I know shocking.

What would be a better proposal for you in terms of wealth redistribution?

 

[wagrxm2000]

What would be a better proposal for you in terms of wealth redistribution?

What part of my post history thinks I believe wealth should be distributed better?

Sorry but I think a person should have to work not be given handouts.

 

[owlegrad]

What part of my post history thinks I believe wealth should be distributed better?

Sorry but I think a person should have to work not be given handouts.

What should 100 million people do when there are only 50 million jobs?

 

[wagrxm2000]

What should 100 million people do when there are only 50 million jobs?

Watch idiocracy every day?

 

[BMBiology]

What part of my post history thinks I believe wealth should be distributed better?

Sorry but I think a person should have to work not be given handouts.

The problem with your thinking is that it is too dogma. Things change. Your thinking should too.

And yes, you have greatly benefited from government subsidies too. Who do you think is paying for Medicare/Medicaid?

 

[grizzlesgrizzlies]

What part of my post history thinks I believe wealth should be distributed better?

Sorry but I think a person should have to work not be given handouts.

I see you've missed the whole memo on technological unemployment and the death of labor...

Bootstraps are obsolete my friend

 

[wagrxm2000]

I see you've missed the whole memo on technological unemployment and the death of labor...

Bootstraps are obsolete my friend

Don't believe everything you hear.

 

[BMBiology]

Don't believe everything you hear.

Yes, sticking your head in the sand works.

 

[wagrxm2000]

Yes, sticking your head in the sand works.

Continue to live in fear.

Manufacturing, transportation, etc will be automated but with technology comes new jobs. People need to either learn new skills or fall behind.

 

[BMBiology]

Continue to live in fear.

Manufacturing, transportation, etc will be automated but with technology comes new jobs. People need to either learn new skills or fall behind.

Yes, there will be enough STEM jobs for everyone.

If Walgreens fired you today, what are you going to do? Learn how to code? You are already in your 50s!

 

[wagrxm2000]

Yes, there will be enough STEM jobs for everyone.

If Walgreens fired you today, what are you going to do? Learn how to code? You are already in your 50s!

Hey!!! I'm still in my 40s.

No I'd retire, I'm under 10 years left until I'm done and can live beyond comfortably. Kids will be gone soon too. However, you don't think people in their 40s and 50s can learn a new skill? Someone in their 40s might still have over 20 years left of working.

So what is your plan? Give enough handouts to support the 45% that are without jobs? How do you decide who has to work and who gets to lay around all day?

 

[Thoughtfulsinner]

Hey!!! I'm still in my 40s.

No I'd retire, I'm under 10 years left until I'm done and can live beyond comfortably. Kids will be gone soon too. However, you don't think people in their 40s and 50s can learn a new skill? Someone in their 40s might still have over 20 years left of working.

So what is your plan? Give enough handouts to support the 45% that are without jobs? How do you decide who has to work and who gets to lay around all day?

A good number of medical students in my class are in their late 30's/40's.

 

[grizzlesgrizzlies]

However, you don't think people in their 40s and 50s can learn a new skill? Someone in their 40s might still have over 20 years left of working.

So what is your plan? Give enough handouts to support the 45% that are without jobs? How do you decide who has to work and who gets to lay around all day?

The most common professions in the US (truck driver, retail worker, cashier, call center worker, etc) are likely to be automated within the next 10 years. Technology does create new jobs but in this case it will destroy much more jobs than it will create. It is said that one-third of US workforce could be jobless by 2030 due to automation. The elephant in the room is what do we do with the excess population who are technologically unemployed? The problem isn't that people don't want to work, is that in the future the majority of us are no longer needed to work.

 

[321931]

Oh this is a good thread. Dentist here.

I'm going to be seriously surprised if there is no additional rate hike this cycle. We are literally at all time highs on the SP500. Powells 180 turn in December and going Dovish has helped the market bounce...but at the same time we need to combat inflation. Now we have chitter chatter of ending QT and possibly starting QE again?

Anyways, should be interesting to see the Fed meeting today. I have alot of cash on sidelines waiting for this everything bubble to pop...but for some reason I think we see more dovish words and a push for SPY 300.

 

[wagrxm2000]

Oh this is a good thread. Dentist here.

I'm going to be seriously surprised if there is no additional rate hike this cycle. We are literally at all time highs on the SP500. Powells 180 turn in December and going Dovish has helped the market bounce...but at the same time we need to combat inflation. Now we have chitter chatter of ending QT and possibly starting QE again?

Anyways, should be interesting to see the Fed meeting today. I have alot of cash on sidelines waiting for this everything bubble to pop...but for some reason I think we see more dovish words and a push for SPY 300.

How long have you been holding cash? At what point do you plan on buying, 30% crash? 50%?

Inflation has been down this year, I don't see any interest rate hikes for awhile.

 

[321931]

How long have you been holding cash? At what point do you plan on buying, 30% crash? 50%?

Inflation has been down this year, I don't see any interest rate hikes for awhile.

I am 50/50%. 50% in Equities, and 50% in Cash. I just put the same amount into the market every paycheck, but I have about 150k on the sidelines just waiting. I regret not deploying that huge chunk of capital in December 2018...but I honestly thought we were going to see SPY 200-220 where I would of averaged in.

Alas, you can't time the market. Just have to be more aggressive next time.