The magic dozen

[WallowaWanderer]

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If I limit it to 12 interviews, then how many of these should be at uber-competitive places. I mean, would I still have a 99% chance of matching even if I interview at all very competitive programs? I'm having trouble shortening my list and naturally it's much harder to axe a place with a great rep that I know I would be happy at than it is to axe a place that's less well known but I know I would be happy at. I hope this doesn't sound tool-ish - I was very fortunate to get interviews to great places.

 

[Hard24Get]

If I limit it to 12 interviews, then how many of these should be at uber-competitive places. I mean, would I still have a 99% chance of matching even if I interview at all very competitive programs? I'm having trouble shortening my list and naturally it's much harder to axe a place with a great rep that I know I would be happy at than it is to axe a place that's less well known but I know I would be happy at. I hope this doesn't sound tool-ish - I was very fortunate to get interviews to great places.

I dunno - looking through Frieda it looks like most programs interview about 10X their number of slots. I would think that poorer applicants would not be interviewed at more competitive places, and competitive applicants can be potentially lost to other competitive programs, so I doubt the chances of matching are much different at one programs vs another after getting an interview.

Then again, I am not so hot at math. Interested to see what others think 🙂

 

[overthebars]

There is that graph from ERAS that shows the %matched vs # programs on the ROL. Once you get past 9 or 10 it is hovering about the high 90's. If you happen to be a bada$$ (as you seem to be) then I'm sure things will work out well for you.

 

[HokiMD]

If your getting 12 interviews from really competitive programs, chances are you can match at one of those programs. If those are the ones you want, go for them. If your really worried about it, bump your total up to 14 and but the bill on the credit card and pay it off later.

If they are calling, that means they are interested. The match is setup in your favor to do just what your asking it about. Chances are you won't decrease your match chances by cancelling less prestigious programs, I wouldn't sweat it.

Like another person said, look at the stats on the NRMP charting the match. At 7 interviews a US senior matched in 94 out of 105 times, an 89% match rate and it just went up from there (totaling all applicants it is 106 out of 125 times, or 85%). I wouldn't sweat it too much at 12, it just shows when you get that many interviews and don't match, its more of a personality flaw than anything else (hence the one person who had 16 interviews and did not match)