- Joined
- May 3, 2005
- Messages
- 4,238
- Reaction score
- 2,293
Ok, lets debunk this nonsense once and for all:
1. The Dunn paper demonstrates the authors haven't a clue about the fundamentals of statistical analysis, and neither did the peer reviewers of the paper. Very wide confidence intervals in the results that were nowhere near the mean, demonstrate a complete lack of confidence in the results, since they could be possible due to statistical variation. Basic statistics textbooks tell us that one cannot draw meaningful conclusions when there are extremely wide confidence intervals. This paper should have never been accepted or published. The numbers of both overdoses (the only conclusions drawn were on overdoses, not deaths) and deaths were so small so as to render the findings meaningless. Statistically the study lacked validity.
2. The Bohnert study is a VA study. The VA was tacitly presumed to be a closed system but clearly it was not since some patients receiving ZERO opioids from the VA had overdose deaths associated with opioids. The Veterans are just as much drug abusers as is any class of patient, and may be even more so since the VA refused to place their prescribing data in any of the state prescription monitoring program databases. Therefore the vets were double dipping or triple dipping, and it is not possible to quantify how much the vets were actually taking from multiple prescribers. The amount prescribed by the VA may have been a small fraction of what was actually being taken. The numbers derived from this incomplete data are inherently flawed.
3. The Gomes paper demonstrated a death rate from opioids at 0.009% per year, essentially the same as in the US. But they found virtually the same death rate for 50-99mg MED as 100-200mg MED. The only conclusion that could be drawn is that there is some value of increase in death rate, but the confidence intervals place the possible increase in death rate at 28% for up to 200mg MED morphine and slightly higher at 30% for those taking 50-99 mg MED. The study failed to consider any other common cofactors that are known to be associated with death and overdose. This is like saying the suicide rate from narcotics is very high, then quoting the overall death rate from narcotics without determining what percent committed suicide. It is necessary to DRILL DEEPER.
4. The Paulozzi study found the highest risk of death by far is those taking buprenorphine- 2-3 times higher than all other opioids. Of course the only logical conclusion is that they failed to drill deep enough to make sense of this absurd data. How many were taking heroin? How many were using alcohol? Same for all the other drugs. On face value, the medical community should immediately stop prescribing buprenorphine since it is a deadly killer according to Paulozzi et al. The problem is, just as with the other studies, non-sensical conclusions are reached when the factors leading to death and cause of death and manner of death remain hidden from either the researchers (inadequate data, using peripheral blood samples for tox studies, lack of autopsy, etc) or from the medical community (failure of the authors to analyze and/or report the cofactors in death).
What we really need is a well conducted detailed analysis of overdose deaths. None of these were randomized control trials....they were cohort studies. The same criticisms that PROP made about the lack of evidence for effectiveness of long term opioid therapy are also in play with these studies. It is patently academic and ethical dishonesty to accept the proposition that there is no valid evidence of effectiveness while attempting to torpedo the long term pain management of millions based on equally flawed studies. Fortunately the FDA saw through the charade of proposed tacit and de facto elimination of pain management for millions since no other viable solutions were offered other than to think happy thoughts. PROP was slapped down decisively for their posturing. They failed to dig deeper, just as the above studies failed to dig deeply enough to derive logical conclusions. So rather than rehashing the same old tired and debunked flawed opioid studies, perhaps it is time to do our own research and determine cause of death (can only be determined by autopsy PLUS toxicology drawn from central blood) and look into all the cofactors that are associated with patient deaths. PROP itself could commission such a study and it would be welcomed by the medical community. But our patients deserve better than to be tortured by any organization with a pre-defined agenda to eliminate the availability of opioids for the treatment of chronic pain without valid, statistical evidence to do so.
1. The Dunn paper demonstrates the authors haven't a clue about the fundamentals of statistical analysis, and neither did the peer reviewers of the paper. Very wide confidence intervals in the results that were nowhere near the mean, demonstrate a complete lack of confidence in the results, since they could be possible due to statistical variation. Basic statistics textbooks tell us that one cannot draw meaningful conclusions when there are extremely wide confidence intervals. This paper should have never been accepted or published. The numbers of both overdoses (the only conclusions drawn were on overdoses, not deaths) and deaths were so small so as to render the findings meaningless. Statistically the study lacked validity.
2. The Bohnert study is a VA study. The VA was tacitly presumed to be a closed system but clearly it was not since some patients receiving ZERO opioids from the VA had overdose deaths associated with opioids. The Veterans are just as much drug abusers as is any class of patient, and may be even more so since the VA refused to place their prescribing data in any of the state prescription monitoring program databases. Therefore the vets were double dipping or triple dipping, and it is not possible to quantify how much the vets were actually taking from multiple prescribers. The amount prescribed by the VA may have been a small fraction of what was actually being taken. The numbers derived from this incomplete data are inherently flawed.
3. The Gomes paper demonstrated a death rate from opioids at 0.009% per year, essentially the same as in the US. But they found virtually the same death rate for 50-99mg MED as 100-200mg MED. The only conclusion that could be drawn is that there is some value of increase in death rate, but the confidence intervals place the possible increase in death rate at 28% for up to 200mg MED morphine and slightly higher at 30% for those taking 50-99 mg MED. The study failed to consider any other common cofactors that are known to be associated with death and overdose. This is like saying the suicide rate from narcotics is very high, then quoting the overall death rate from narcotics without determining what percent committed suicide. It is necessary to DRILL DEEPER.
4. The Paulozzi study found the highest risk of death by far is those taking buprenorphine- 2-3 times higher than all other opioids. Of course the only logical conclusion is that they failed to drill deep enough to make sense of this absurd data. How many were taking heroin? How many were using alcohol? Same for all the other drugs. On face value, the medical community should immediately stop prescribing buprenorphine since it is a deadly killer according to Paulozzi et al. The problem is, just as with the other studies, non-sensical conclusions are reached when the factors leading to death and cause of death and manner of death remain hidden from either the researchers (inadequate data, using peripheral blood samples for tox studies, lack of autopsy, etc) or from the medical community (failure of the authors to analyze and/or report the cofactors in death).
What we really need is a well conducted detailed analysis of overdose deaths. None of these were randomized control trials....they were cohort studies. The same criticisms that PROP made about the lack of evidence for effectiveness of long term opioid therapy are also in play with these studies. It is patently academic and ethical dishonesty to accept the proposition that there is no valid evidence of effectiveness while attempting to torpedo the long term pain management of millions based on equally flawed studies. Fortunately the FDA saw through the charade of proposed tacit and de facto elimination of pain management for millions since no other viable solutions were offered other than to think happy thoughts. PROP was slapped down decisively for their posturing. They failed to dig deeper, just as the above studies failed to dig deeply enough to derive logical conclusions. So rather than rehashing the same old tired and debunked flawed opioid studies, perhaps it is time to do our own research and determine cause of death (can only be determined by autopsy PLUS toxicology drawn from central blood) and look into all the cofactors that are associated with patient deaths. PROP itself could commission such a study and it would be welcomed by the medical community. But our patients deserve better than to be tortured by any organization with a pre-defined agenda to eliminate the availability of opioids for the treatment of chronic pain without valid, statistical evidence to do so.