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Has anyone had experience with putting some money in direct stocks bypassing brokers, fees etc.? Im thinking about putting some money around 1k into a company. Totally new to this game
Sure, my thoughts are: don't. A solid financial plan should never have stock in a single company. The best way to win in the long term is to invest in low cost broad index funds from a company like Vanguard.
There is not one best way to "win". There are a multitude of ways that have ended up in the same result. That said, unless that single company is Berkshire Hathaway A shares (obviously it cannot be) than its not a prudent investment, doubly so if less than five years horizon. Thats not investing its speculating.
An investment in a single company can be a great investment (and not speculation). It just shouldn't be your only investment. You need diversification to offset the risks. Benjamin Graham himself suggested a diversified "basket" of 20 or 30 companies could provide a great protection against any 1 or 2 purchases being drastically incorrect.
That said you shouldn't even begin to think about buying a stock unless you know a lot about the company. Read their annual report. Read their last several annual reports. Learn how to analyze their income statements and balance sheets over time. Compare them to others in their industry, etc. Make sure the purchase price is with an adequate margin of safety.
Or just buy a total market index fund and own them all without the risks of one company turning into Enron.
You can do that. It's also possible to do better than that. Should the average investor just buy a low cost index fund? Of course. Does that mean everybody should? Of course not. It's possible to be educated about financials and make educated decisions and actually do better than the market. It isn't easy, but that doesn't mean it can't be done in a profitable fashion over the long haul. Only a fool would've been buying Enron prior to it's collapse. Their debt load was overwhelming compared to their cash flow and they got around it by issuing even more debt.
Any 1 company can go in the tank tomorrow. But prudent investors can pretty easily determine companies that are quite unlikely to do that. I'm pretty sure Berkshire Hathaway will still be cranking out cash 40 years from now. Same thing for Disney. Same thing for Microsoft. Same thing for Exxon or Altria or Diageo or Nestle. The key is to find companies likely to be profitable long term and buy them when their price is temporarily depressed.
What makes you think that you can beat the professionals it there who do this for a living? Their funds don't beat the index funds in the long term. It's your money, do what you want, but my strategy will win the long term game.
Ah, the perennial value investing versus index investing debate.![]()
How do you know it will win the game? Professionals managing mutual funds can't beat their index because of their size. They have to own the same stocks as everybody else. They can't load up on cheap ones and ignore expensive ones. By the very nature of what they do, the experts can't beat the market because they are the market.
Do you think it's a coincidence that Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger and Walter Schloss all made great returns following the same ideas? How did Warren Buffett grow Berkshire Hathaway's market value by 1.8 million percent over 50 years when the overall market only increased by 11,000%?
Is it luck? Or does the market occasionally misprice a security that an intelligent person can take advantage of?
I'm completely agreeing that the average investor should just take a mutual fund with low expense ratio and run. But it's naive to think that is the optimal strategy for everybody. I choose to individually invest approximately 20% of my savings on an annual basis. So far, so good. I'm up on the S&P since I started in 2007 and I look forward to another downturn to bring me even more great chances to buy deeply discounted companies. I've picked some losers, but I've also picked massive winners. Will it continue? I can't be certain. But history suggests a similar approach in the future is likely to be profitable as well. The downside of such an endeavor is that it does require a few things that not everybody has: patience to invest for the long term, time to research things thoroughly, and the knowledge on how to interpret financial information. The average investor gets happy when the stock market goes up, but for anybody that will be a net purchaser of stocks (or mutual funds) in the future, it's a bad thing since they will have to pay higher prices for their purchases. Buy low, sell high, is easy for people to say but very difficult for the vast majority to adhere to.
When the market crashes down, all kinds of people panic and sell when in reality they should be loading up and buying even more. Not easy to do, but that's when the best investments are made.
except for every warren buffet there are MILLIONS of people where their investments performed below average.
I especially don't get this from physicians. So most physicians work a good amount of hours and work hard at what they do. They've also trained for a long time in that field to get to that point. Would you play someone 1 on 1 in basketball for any significant stakes that practiced 60 hours a week and had been doing so for a living since they got out of high school? I sure wouldn't, and I have no idea why people do the equivalent in the financial sector. You're in the office all day, meanwhile the guy you're competing with has 100 analysts giving him a trillion different metrics and you think you're going to beat him? That's the definition of naive in my opinion. I don't think I'd beat Steph Curry 1 on 1, just like I don't think I'd beat his equivalent in a manager.
Research things thoroughly? I don't know if you understand how real-time stats work, but no single person has the time or resources to " research things thoroughly" compared to what the managers have. Any data you're looking at in real time, has been factored into their decisions 10 minutes ago, but somehow you think you're going to get a leg up on them?
The difference between me and the high powered analyst is that I have less turnover, and lower fees (through vanguard index funds). Those are the two things that will sink the return of any professional money manager, every time.
I'm sure the professional money managers and their teams of analysts make tons of money for themselves. I'd rather spend my investment income on something else.
I do both. 🙂No offense, but there isn't really a debate. It's really only an internal debate you should have with yourself over how much time and work you would like to put into your investments and an acknowledgement of what kind of temperament you have. The reality is that a good diversified portfolio is what everyone should aim for, it's just a question of how you go about structuring it.
The vast majority of people should just dollar cost average into low cost index funds at an appropriate split between stocks and bonds and call it a day. That doesn't mean it's the best possible thing you can do, just that's it's the easiest and least likely to allow mistakes that can cripple your portfolio.
that will never happen because people will always be greedy thinking they have the magic formula. only like 10 % of the market has to be actively trading for indexing to remain viable.
trying to beat the market is like a random hobo walking in off the street and thinking they can beat you clinically.
that will never happen because people will always be greedy thinking they have the magic formula. only like 10 % of the market has to be actively trading for indexing to remain viable.
trying to beat the market is like a random hobo walking in off the street and thinking they can beat you clinically.
No. Because the market isn't an expert. The market is an average. The problem is that to beat it you just have to be an investor, not a speculator or trader. You have to be willing to see beyond a stock price as a measure of value. It isn't. If your house was a stock and somebody came up to you and offered to buy it for a different price every day, would you feel your house was more valuable on the day somebody offered more than the day before when they offered less? Of course not. It's just an offer. Stock prices are offers. You can take or leave them at your leisure and when they give you a big advantage, you can take it.
yeah so you know some magic secret that every active investor doesn't know. you're a doctor, not some MIT kid who can come up with some stupidly complex algorithm to determine value that no one else can see. if seeing when you're at a big advantage was so easy, then the active guys would destroy you because they have 1000000000x the resources to commit to finding the same things you're looking for.
I feel like physicians are especially vulnerable to this kind of thinking because they get overconfident about their knowledge in other areas due to their immense clinical knowledge.
ps your comment about the active manager requiring turnover is completely wrong. I know some people that work for active management companies and they average between 2-5 trades a year for last 10+ years.
you literally have no idea what you are talking about. Not in a hyperbolic way, but you actually have no idea.
Magic secrets? Are you nuts? It's not magic. It's not "stupidly complex algorithms". It's simple. Is there something complicated about buying a stock when it's value is less than the cash on hand (minus all debts owed) by the company? It's like buying a wallet with $100 in it for $50. Things like that happen in the stock market. It isn't common, but it doesn't have to be. I'm not trying to be correct on 5000 different companies, just picking and choosing the drastically mispriced ones.
You also seem to have no idea what a mutual fund is and how it functions and what active management means. It means fees. It means the investor spends something like 1% or 2% of their cash per year for the honor of having someone else invest it for them. Sounds great.
You really need to read some good books. I recommend starting with The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham. It will blow your mind. He likes to use the analogy of buying a dollar for 50 cents. If you keep doing it, over time you will have a lot of dollars. But he also points out that many people just don't understand and you can tell them over and over and over and they will just never get it.
Is it a coincidence that all of Ben Graham's closest pupils have made a killing in investments the last 50 years? Was it all luck? They all had slightly different variations, but the same basics. They worked in different areas and sectors, yet consistently outperformed the market. It still works today. Why? Because it's against human nature. People are stupid animals and make dumb decisions like buying lottery tickets.
By the very definition, "active" guys can't destroy value investing long term. It's too slow and boring and they can't do it because nobody would be willing to pay for it. Active managers are in the market of generating business, not generating superior 50 year returns.
yeah so you know some magic secret that every active investor doesn't know. you're a doctor, not some MIT kid who can come up with some stupidly complex algorithm to determine value that no one else can see. if seeing when you're at a big advantage was so easy, then the active guys would destroy you because they have 1000000000x the resources to commit to finding the same things you're looking for.
I feel like physicians are especially vulnerable to this kind of thinking because they get overconfident about their knowledge in other areas due to their immense clinical knowledge.
ps your comment about the active manager requiring turnover is completely wrong. I know some people that work for active management companies and they average between 2-5 trades a year for last 10+ years.
this sounds so much like a snake oil ad its scary.
You also seem to have no idea what a mutual fund is and how it functions and what active management means. It means fees. It means the investor spends something like 1% or 2% of their cash per year for the honor of having someone else invest it for them. Sounds great.
I trust that you realize there are some great, low-cost, passively managed mutual funds out there that have fees of less than 0.1%. Except in my 403b where I'm limited to my employer picked choices, I don't have any funds less than 0.3% and most are less than that.
I trust you realize I was responding to a post in praise of actively managed funds. I'm well aware of what low-cost passively managed funds are. My entire 401k is in a combination of funds with fees averaging about 0.14%. As I've stated before, most investors would do well to place all their retirement assets in low cost mutual funds. Actively managed funds are TERRIBLE ideas, though.
nothing in my post was praising active funds.
I trust you realize I was responding to a post in praise of actively managed funds. I'm well aware of what low-cost passively managed funds are. My entire 401k plus Roth IRA is in a combination of funds with fees averaging about 0.14%. As I've stated before, most investors would do well to place all their retirement assets in low cost mutual funds. Actively managed funds are TERRIBLE ideas, though.
Man its good to see docs having this debate. 5 years ago doctors couldn't have this intelligent of a financial conversation. I hope I'm part of that.
Is it possible to beat the market? Sure. But I'm not going to bet on my ability to do so. Market returns are all I need to meet my goals, and the only financial statement I have to read is my own.
huh? I can talk about them without praising them?
And that is a great way for most physicians to invest because they are busy with jobs and lives. I just like to call BS when people suggest it is necessarily the best option and only good way to do it. I max out 401K, roth IRA, and defined benefit plan and use funds that have bare minimum expense. But that still leaves me with another 100K a year to save and I academically enjoy beating the market long term with value based investing principles. It takes time, effort, and patience, but I believe it's a fundamentally better option and for me that is rewarding and the risk is minimal if I'm properly diversified.
I run into lots of people who like doing this sort of thing. My advice is to carefully calculate your returns, including the value of your time doing it, your expenses, your taxes etc and then decide after a few years if it is really a good idea. If so, great. If not, you can always go back to index funds. What I usually find is that stock pickers don't even know how to calculate their returns accurately, which tells me a lot. I'd be more than willing to spend time picking stocks if I was convinced it was a good use of my time and effort. But I'm not. Your mileage may vary, but at least look and see what your mileage is the next time you fill up!
I run into lots of people who like doing this sort of thing. My advice is to carefully calculate your returns, including the value of your time doing it, your expenses, your taxes etc and then decide after a few years if it is really a good idea. If so, great. If not, you can always go back to index funds. What I usually find is that stock pickers don't even know how to calculate their returns accurately, which tells me a lot. I'd be more than willing to spend time picking stocks if I was convinced it was a good use of my time and effort. But I'm not. Your mileage may vary, but at least look and see what your mileage is the next time you fill up!
I have yet to find, or create (working on a couple), an excellent spreadsheet for my personal portfolio. There are a couple of ok ones, but its a real pain to make a slick one that incorporates reinvested dividends, fractional shares, dca, etc...and so forth.
This. For 90+% of my portfolio, I index. For a small amount, I tilt because it's fun to do the research and try to beat the market. If I ever manage to pick a big winner, that will just be icing on the cake.Sadly, I really enjoy the effort side of things, its fascinating and intellectually stimulating. Were this not the case, that would make more sense for sure. I think its the typical self selection bias we usually argue with each other about, and it really turns out to be personality differences (like how lots of RE types view the market very negatively). I dont recall the exact quote, but Benjamin Graham says something along the lines of, show me a portfolio and it will give him a picture of the owner...something along those lines.