Trends

[sinfin]

Does anyone know what the trend has been with the number of applicants applying per year? I know its been going down since '96 until I think 2 yrs ago.

---

Members don't see this ad.

 

[Medikit]

http://www.aamc.org/data/facts/2003/2003summary.htm

Looks like it may have stabalized or is on the rise. Still pretty low though.

 

[SaltySqueegee]

Using the data on that website I put together this graph that shows the cyclical nature of the application process. We are now coming out of a down cycle. So, those applying in the future, probably all the way out to ~2010, will be experiencing increasing difficulty with admissions.

Goood Luck! You'll need it for the future.

 

[Medikit]

Using the data on that website I put together this graph that shows the cyclical nature of the application process. We are now coming out of a down cycle. So, those applying in the future, probably all the way out to ~2010, will be experiencing increasing difficulty with admissions.

Goood Luck! You'll need it for the future.

I think that's a little presumptuous

 

[exmike]

AAMC can roughly predict from the number of MCAT takers what the number of applicants will be. Since 2002 the # of applicants has increased about 4-6% each year, and should do the same for 2005. I believe they projected there to be around 38,000 applicants for 2005 entering class - a big increase from the 33,800 in 2002

 

[samurai_lincoln]

I think that's a little presumptuous

I agree... it isn't like the cycle of cottontail rabbit reproduction. Basically, grad & professional school application rates are inversely related to the state of the economy. Lots of jobs = fewer applications, and vice versa. The economy was brutal in the early to mid 90s (most of you younguns are too young to remember), and you notice the spike in apps during that period. However, the economy has been equally crappy since 2001, and is just starting to pick back up. Yet there has not been a correspondingly large jump of med schol apps, as their should be.

I think part of this has to do with medicine being viewed less attractively by young people as a career option... whether this is due to HMO crisis, malpractice, declining salaries, the difficulty of the education, or what have you. But the fact is that med schools have not seen a large spike in apps during the current recession, whereas law schools and MBA programs have. I recently read that law school apps increased 20% between 2002 and 2003 alone, and MBA apps shot up an incredible 65%. Med school applications barely increased at all during this same timeframe.

If the economy continues to improve (setting aside the question of whether it actually has yet improved), the number of med school apps is likely to drop again, perhaps to record lows.

 

[SaltySqueegee]

I agree... it isn't like the cycle of cottontail rabbit reproduction. ...related to the state of the economy. Lots of jobs = fewer applications, and vice versa. The economy... ...If the economy continues to improve (setting aside the question of whether it actually has yet improved), the number of med school apps is likely to drop again, perhaps to record lows.

Well, this is true to a degree. I've been under the assumption that the preparatory path to applying to medical school was a limiting factor, and thus kept the medical school admission cycle numbers more or less steadily cyclical, and to a degree somewhat predictable.

Thank you for the input, but I'll stick to my 10 year wave form.

 

[SaltySqueegee]

In the very least, it does however demonstrate the basic cyclical nature of the applicant pool profile.

 

[SaltySqueegee]

One of us should remember this Trends thread a few years down the line to see if it was true.

Any bets or wagers?

 

[Mr. Obsessive]

This is a scary trend. If this keeps up, you'll need a killer GPA to be an average matriculant.

Matriculants

GPA total Mean 3.45 3.47 3.48 3.52 3.54 3.56 3.57 3.59 3.60 3.60 3.61 3.62

Source: http://www.aamc.org/data/facts/2003/2003mcatgpa.htm

Alot of literature talks about a 3.5 for average matriculant. It obviously has not been updated.

 

[VFrank]

This is a scary trend. If this keeps up, you'll need a killer GPA to be an average matriculant.

Matriculants

GPA total Mean 3.45 3.47 3.48 3.52 3.54 3.56 3.57 3.59 3.60 3.60 3.61 3.62

Source: http://www.aamc.org/data/facts/2003/2003mcatgpa.htm

Alot of literature talks about a 3.5 for average matriculant. It obviously has not been updated.

Do schools pay any attention to your undergraduate institution when looking at your GPA? For instance, I go to maybe the only top 15 school that doesn't employ grade inflation and it's REALLY HARD to get a decent grade. Do Adcoms know this?

 

[jpro]

Do schools pay any attention to your undergraduate institution when looking at your GPA? For instance, I go to maybe the only top 15 school that doesn't employ grade inflation and it's REALLY HARD to get a decent grade. Do Adcoms know this?

didn't you get like a 42 or something on your MCAT. I think that would trump a slightly lower GPA. With that MCAT you are sure to get interviews and be able to discuss your school to death if they want.

 

[exmike]

Do schools pay any attention to your undergraduate institution when looking at your GPA? For instance, I go to maybe the only top 15 school that doesn't employ grade inflation and it's REALLY HARD to get a decent grade. Do Adcoms know this?

amost everyone thinks THEIR school doesnt employ grade inflation. The fact is there are people from your school with stellar grades too. However, the reputation of your school will help regardless of whether or not grade inflation exists.

 

[sinfin]

Thanks for all the responses - I found them all insightful. I actually heard law school applications went up 50% in the 200-03 application cycle.