True Inflation Rate

[BLADEMDA]

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[BLADEMDA]

• Prices in goods to skyrocket, particularly at the grocery store.
• Loans will be easier to get with borrowing at low interest rates.
• Your retirement and savings will be devalued by nature of economics and inflation.
• It will take time for you to feel the effects of the hyper printing of money, but just know it will come

There has been nothing of this magnitude in terms of finance and economics in US history. I’m startled this isn’t being talked about more, but then again, we are usually getting delivered media that is to distract us from the more important issues.

 

[BLADEMDA]

40% of US dollars in existence were printed in the last 12 months: Is America repeating the same mistake of 1921 Weimar Germany?​

Who cares? You may ask. It leads to inflation and devaluation. Too much money in circulation chasing the same amount of goods leads to inflation. For example, inflation is at 6.2% on an annual basis, the highest spike since 2008 driven in part by a huge increase in food prices and others. The impact of inflation can also be seen in stocks and cryptocurrencies

Current US Inflation Rates: 2000-2024

The annual inflation rate for the United States was 3.5% for the 12 months ending March, compared to the previous rate of 3.2%, according to U.S. Labor Department data published on April 10, 2024. The next inflation update is scheduled for release on May 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET, providing information...

www.usinflationcalculator.com

 

[<(^_^)>]

• Prices in goods to skyrocket, particularly at the grocery store.
• Loans will be easier to get with borrowing at low interest rates.
• Your retirement and savings will be devalued by nature of economics and inflation.
• It will take time for you to feel the effects of the hyper printing of money, but just know it will come

There has been nothing of this magnitude in terms of finance and economics in US history. I’m startled this isn’t being talked about more, but then again, we are usually getting delivered media that is to distract us from the more important issues.

If you have your money in stocks inflation isn’t a horrible thing necessarily. If you have low interest debt it’s actually a good thing, one of the best hedges against inflation there is.

While I also am pretty financially conservative the 3.3 vs 4% thing is overblown a bit, specifically for physicians. The main reason being the “bad outcome” for physicians retiring with 5M, expecting to retire with 200k (inflation adjusted) and finding they need to dial back to 120k after 10 years isn’t the same thing as someone retiring on 40k that now has to try to make things work on 24k. Every dollar produces less utility, and dialing back your budget is way easier if you are going from 200k to 150k than 40 to 30. You might not vacation to the Italy in 2008/2009, but you’ll be ok.

These calculators also don’t include social security (for most physicians will be ~40k a year in current dollars if claimed at 70) and they don’t include your home (again for most physicians >1M) which could be tapped in a worst case scenario.

If you use the “risky” 4% rate and retire early at 55 with 5M you will have a 20% chance of running out of your main investment account by 85, if you also never claimed social security and burned your house down. You will also have a 60% chance of dying before 85. And not to be even more morbid but that goes for your spouse too.

Being financially conservative is great, I advocate for that a lot, but remember that you don’t get to bring the money with you and the far bigger risk is dying way before you exhaust your funds. All too often the concern over running out of money doesn’t result in tolerating a lower budget, but instead working until 65+…while neglecting that there’s a ~20% chance you or your spouse dies from 55-65. Our time is limited, and in some cases way more limited than we thought.

 

[nimbus]

Is US money printing driving global inflation? Or is it consumerism? Also why isn’t it affecting Japan? They’ve been trying to get their inflation rate up for the past decade without any success. I have a theory that old folks just don’t spend much money except for healthcare which is largely covered in Japan.

 

[BLADEMDA]

If you have your money in stocks inflation isn’t a horrible thing necessarily. If you have low interest debt it’s actually a good thing, one of the best hedges against inflation there is.

While I also am pretty financially conservative the 3.3 vs 4% thing is overblown a bit, specifically for physicians. The main reason being the “bad outcome” for physicians retiring with 5M, expecting to retire with 200k (inflation adjusted) and finding they need to dial back to 120k after 10 years isn’t the same thing as someone retiring on 40k that now has to try to make things work on 24k. Every dollar produces less utility, and dialing back your budget is way easier if you are going from 200k to 150k than 40 to 30. You might not vacation to the Italy in 2008/2009, but you’ll be ok.

These calculators also don’t include social security (for most physicians will be ~40k a year in current dollars if claimed at 70) and they don’t include your home (again for most physicians >1M) which could be tapped in a worst case scenario.

If you use the “risky” 4% rate and retire early at 55 with 5M you will have a 20% chance of running out of your main investment account by 85, if you also never claimed social security and burned your house down. You will also have a 60% chance of dying before 85. And not to be even more morbid but that goes for your spouse too.

Being financially conservative is great, I advocate for that a lot, but remember that you don’t get to bring the money with you and the far bigger risk is dying way before you exhaust your funds. All too often the concern over running out of money doesn’t result in tolerating a lower budget, but instead working until 65+…while neglecting that there’s a ~20% chance you or your spouse dies from 55-65. Our time is limited, and in some cases way more limited than we thought.

I have to disagree with the 20% death rate at age 55-65. Most of my friends and my wife's friends are in that age group. Nobody has died yet. In fact, most are doing quite well but have 1-3 typical medical conditions at that age. Medical Science has greatly improved over the past 50 years especially the past 2 decades. Boomers are hard workers with many working until age 65-70. In fact, that is more the norm than retiring "early" like age 55.

I do agree our time is limited on Earth. If you choose to spend it playing golf, fishing or skiing then by all means do so. However, others see value and purpose in work especially our line of work so they want to continue doing it. A happy middle group is a reduction in work weeks to around 38-40 with reduced hours per week. That leaves plenty of time available for personal leisure.

 

[nimbus]

Buying iPhones as a store of value? Strange times.

"Not currently available": Turks can't buy iPhones after lira plunge

Turks attempting to buy iPhones and other electronics received online error messages on Wednesday, including from Apple Inc's local website, after a historic 15% plunge in the lira the day before caused havoc for prices.

www.reuters.com

 

[Spine MD]

The economy is on opiates. Detoxification is painful, often unsuccessful. Cold Turkey, methadone, or ultimate overdose, pick your poison.

OD -> Narcan -> methadone -> quit

 

[Spine MD]

I have to disagree with the 20% death rate at age 55-65. Most of my friends and my wife's friends are in that age group. Nobody has died yet. In fact, most are doing quite well but have 1-3 typical medical conditions at that age. Medical Science has greatly improved over the past 50 years especially the past 2 decades. Boomers are hard workers with many working until age 65-70. In fact, that is more the norm than retiring "early" like age 55.

I do agree our time is limited on Earth. If you choose to spend it playing golf, fishing or skiing then by all means do so. However, others see value and purpose in work especially our line of work so they want to continue doing it. A happy middle group is a reduction in work weeks to around 38-40 with reduced hours per week. That leaves plenty of time available for personal leisure.

Correct, age at death is not uniformly distributed. Amateur mistake thinking it is.

Improve QOL across the lifespan while young. Foolish to try to run yourself into the ground during your good years and then develop urinary incontinence when you’re trying to travel the world telling stories to those you meet about how much your line of work sucked.