Updated Post II Acceptance Rates 2023

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UMiami actually has in-house exams! They’re “in NBME style” but made by the profs and they only have a few true NBME exams throughout PC. I found this out from a current UM student who corrected me lol!
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I just released the new application manager feature, where applicants can keep track of their cycle results (applications, interviews, acceptances, etc) all in one place. You can find it here.

Early next week, after a few thousand applications worth of data are filled in by applicants, I'll then release the corresponding live Cycle Results feature which anonymously aggregates the application statuses of users who opt-in and makes the results publicly visible. For example, you will be able to see that X anonymous applicant received a Y school interview on a certain date, then received an acceptance on a later date, etc.

I'm hoping that these features do a few things:

1) Helps applicants see when schools start sending out interviews, finish sending out interviews, pull from waitlists, make acceptances, etc in a very structured and organized way. The forums are great for finding this info but it requires users to look over dozens of pages to see individual thread replies to get this data. I figured having it all in one consolidated place on Admit would make it much easier to get this info.

2) Allows me to improve the school list builder by having access to thousands of data points on the individual admissions rubrics, weights, and point systems that schools use, especially when it comes to giving out interviews. The admissions process for giving out interviews is largely rubric-based, where screeners score applicants in several categories, then apply further modifiers to the applicant's overall score based on certain unique applicant metrics (undergrad ranking, SES and disadvantaged status, legacy, etc). If we ignore screener inconsistency and control for essay quality, identical applicants should consistently receive interviews to the same schools based on their primary application (this was also proven in the NYU ML admissions paper, where a scoring algorithm had the same predictive power as screeners in the admissions office for recommending applicants for interview, further review, or rejection.

It'll also be interesting to see how the points threshold needed to receive an interview at each school decreases over the course of the cycle, as well as learn about different screening tendencies. For example, 518 is a commonly shared MCAT soft screen for non-X factor applicants applying to Penn/Hopkins/NYU/WashU based on their admissions rubrics. We can also learn about other nuances, like the impact of low MCAT subsection scores, thresholds for minimum service hours at service-heavy schools, the influence of state residency (largely CA and TX) on OOS school admissions, etc.

My hope is that with enough data, the school list builder can become extremely accurate and help applicants reduce the size of their school lists and apply more efficiently to let's say 20 schools, rather than inefficiently to 30 or 40 schools. It also gives applicants the chance to focus on and submit higher-quality secondary essays rather than writing low-quality ones. With smaller applicant pools, schools can also spend more time holistically evaluating individual applicants with demonstrated mission fits, rather than waste hundreds of hours screening thousands of applicants. I think it would also be cool to one day be able to automatically suggest specific improvements to applicants' primaries, such as what activities or hours are missing from the primary that would increase the probability of receiving an interview at specific schools if incorporated. This is something for the future though that I'll probably work on closer to the start of the next cycle.

That's all for now and thanks for reading; I'm excited to see how this works out and will leave updates as I begin working on the updated version of the school list builder as well as other features :)

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I just released the new application manager feature, where applicants can keep track of their cycle results (applications, interviews, acceptances, etc) all in one place. You can find it here.

Early next week, after a few thousand applications worth of data are filled in by applicants, I'll then release the corresponding live Cycle Results feature which anonymously aggregates the application statuses of users who opt-in and makes the results publicly visible. For example, you will be able to see that X anonymous applicant received a Y school interview on a certain date, then received an acceptance on a later date, etc.

I'm hoping that these features do a few things:

1) Helps applicants see when schools start sending out interviews, finish sending out interviews, pull from waitlists, make acceptances, etc in a very structured and organized way. The forums are great for finding this info but it requires users to look over dozens of pages to see individual thread replies to get this data. I figured having it all in one consolidated place on Admit would make it much easier to get this info.

2) Allows me to improve the school list builder by having access to thousands of data points on the individual admissions rubrics, weights, and point systems that schools use, especially when it comes to giving out interviews. The admissions process for giving out interviews is largely rubric-based, where screeners score applicants in several categories, then apply further modifiers to the applicant's overall score based on certain unique applicant metrics (undergrad ranking, SES and disadvantaged status, legacy, etc). If we ignore screener inconsistency and control for essay quality, identical applicants should consistently receive interviews to the same schools based on their primary application (this was also proven in the NYU ML admissions paper, where a scoring algorithm had the same predictive power as screeners in the admissions office for recommending applicants for interview, further review, or rejection.

It'll also be interesting to see how the points threshold needed to receive an interview at each school decreases over the course of the cycle, as well as learn about different screening tendencies. For example, 518 is a commonly shared MCAT soft screen for non-X factor applicants applying to Penn/Hopkins/NYU/WashU based on their admissions rubrics. We can also learn about other nuances, like the impact of low MCAT subsection scores, thresholds for minimum service hours at service-heavy schools, the influence of state residency (largely CA and TX) on OOS school admissions, etc.

My hope is that with enough data, the school list builder can become extremely accurate and help applicants reduce the size of their school lists and apply more efficiently to let's say 20 schools, rather than inefficiently to 30 or 40 schools. It also gives applicants the chance to focus on and submit higher-quality secondary essays rather than writing low-quality ones. With smaller applicant pools, schools can also spend more time holistically evaluating individual applicants with demonstrated mission fits, rather than waste hundreds of hours screening thousands of applicants. I think it would also be cool to one day be able to automatically suggest specific improvements to applicants' primaries, such as what activities or hours are missing from the primary that would increase the probability of receiving an interview at specific schools if incorporated. This is something for the future though that I'll probably work on closer to the start of the next cycle.

That's all for now and thanks for reading; I'm excited to see how this works out and will leave updates as I begin working on the updated version of the school list builder as well as other features :)

View attachment 388504
As usual, an invaluable service to applicants. One suggestion, though: when promoting the application manager, consider using an example applicant whose Admit Score is less than 750, so that it isn't quite so intimidating to those who aren't in the top 0.1%. :)
 
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Sorry will see if I can do it today haha - been a bit busy on the new feature and getting ready for school
Hey, just thought I would let you know that the dates are a little messed up in the Application Manager. On my end it looks like the Saturdays have no dates associated with them, compressing the week down to 6 days.
 

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In the last week, about 1,000 applicants have started using the Application Manager to manage the progress of their cycle, which is all used to crowd-source data for the cycle results feature I just released. Applicants can also click on other users' names in the live feed or within each school's data tables to see the progress of each other's cycles. For applicants who don't want their information visible in the cycle results, it can be disabled on the settings page.

You can find a link to the new feature here :)
 
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Questions for you and @RunningMSN . You can carry this conversation as a group convo with me.

1) How do your programs compare regarding cycle behavior?

2) what is the average number of applications pet user? I also wanted to see if there is a sweet spot range for applications yielding IIs and offers, though more variables need to be considered? (Inspired by a conversation with advisors, and I realize you both may have insights...)

3) would you both be interested in a joint article about managing your anxiety while applying?
 
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Questions for you and @RunningMSN . You can carry this conversation as a group convo with me.

1) How do your programs compare regarding cycle behavior?

2) what is the average number of applications pet user? I also wanted to see if there is a sweet spot range for applications yielding IIs and offers, though more variables need to be considered? (Inspired by a conversation with advisors, and I realize you both may have insights...)

3) would you both be interested in a joint article about managing your anxiety while applying?
1) I don't have enough data yet on my side to give too much insight on this but I imagine it'll be very similar across both platforms. In terms of the feature itself, I spent a lot of time focusing on making the user experience as seamless as possible to make it easy for applicants to both track their own cycle as well as see aggregated data from other users. I think the idea of tracking cycles and learning more about how individual schools practice admissions is important to making the process more accessible. Making these free tools (Admit, CycleTrack, etc) is ridiculously difficult - it takes a lot of time, costs a ton of money, and there is usually no incentive for anyone to help applicants who can't afford to help the service cover costs. It makes sense that most of the resources that have been made so far are built in a Google doc/sheet by students, which is incredibly limited in reach (usually just gets passed around the forums). Instead of charging applicants to help keep the platform running and continue making more free tools available, one idea I've come up with is building software to help premed advisors in colleges provide feedback to and track the progress of students' profiles/applications, from freshman year to applying. I think that there's a huge disconnect between applicants who find the forums (or even just Reddit) and have the opportunity to learn about applying competitively, versus those whose only source of info is their school's premed advising office and some friends. Bridging that gap seems really important but I'll have to think more about how to do this exactly.

2) The average applicant is applying to 28.57 schools - it's important to note that the users on Admit (and I guess also on SDN) don't represent the average applicant pool. I was taking a look yesterday and the average Admit score is ~700 which is in the 95th+ percentile (something like 520/3.8 or so). One interesting thing I found is that there is a positive correlation between an applicant's score and the number of schools they apply to (applicants with higher scores are applying to more schools, whereas those with lower scores are applying to less). I thought it would be the complete opposite but there could be a few reasonable explanations for this trend.

3) Sounds awesome let's do it.
 
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In the last week, about 1,000 applicants have started using the Application Manager to manage the progress of their cycle, which is all used to crowd-source data for the cycle results feature I just released. Applicants can also click on other users' names in the live feed or within each school's data tables to see the progress of each other's cycles. For applicants who don't want their information visible in the cycle results, it can be disabled on the settings page.

You can find a link to the new feature here :)
Hi, HR. Will Dartmouth be added to the Cycle Results school list? It comes up on the Live Results column when I search for it, but that only lists the most recent user activity.
 
All of the schools should be there - is it not showing up for you?
Seems like there's quite a few schools missing (as it hops around from 9 -> 13 -> 15 etc.) For me, it begins at the 9th ranked school.

Seems like the further you go, the less skipping there is, but there's significant skipping for the top schools

Update: #3 UPenn now showing up
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Also, I'd be very interested in adding 'secondary submitted' to the key statistics. I think it would help give context to schools that have a lot of applicants up front but don't follow through with secondaries (ex. Duke). I think seeing the results of how that correlates to the rate of interviews given would be really interesting.

Thank you so much for this tool @HappyRabbit It's such an amazing resource!!

(This is assuming secondary received means that the applicant has received a secondary, not that the school has received the secondary back)

1720838629391.png
 
Seems like there's quite a few schools missing (as it hops around from 9 -> 13 -> 15 etc.) For me, it begins at the 9th ranked school.

Seems like the further you go, the less skipping there is, but there's significant skipping for the top schools

Update: #3 UPenn now showing up
View attachment 389199
Yeah seems like there's a bug where schools randomly disappear - will fix thanks!
 
Also, I'd be very interested in adding 'secondary submitted' to the key statistics. I think it would help give context to schools that have a lot of applicants up front but don't follow through with secondaries (ex. Duke). I think seeing the results of how that correlates to the rate of interviews given would be really interesting.

Thank you so much for this tool @HappyRabbit It's such an amazing resource!!

(This is assuming secondary received means that the applicant has received a secondary, not that the school has received the secondary back)

View attachment 389200
Will add!
 
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