Updated Post II Acceptance Rates 2023

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Hey all, I've been working on this community project for the last few weeks while I wait for the cycle to end.

You can see individual schools' updated application numbers, interviews, and acceptances that were in the 2021 sheet but now updated for 2023. This lets you see the application -> interview conversion rate and interview -> acceptance conversion rate. It also breaks stats down by in-state and out-of-state which is neat.

Soon I'll add all the school secondaries for the last 5 years and show cool info like the probability the secondary will show up in a future cycle based on the past trend. This should help with prioritizing pre-writing and make the whole admissions process less about Google searching and playing scavenger hunt for info.

Hope this helps a little with applying. I'll keep working on it out of boredom and see how it goes. If you have any feedback please let me know and I'll try to see what I can improve.

Link

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Just released a landing page that should help summarize all of the features on Admit + allow it to support the college resources that I'm releasing soon 🙂

For those curious, I aggregated all of the Common Data Sets from every college and put them on one page similar to MSAR so that high school applicants don't have to look through individual schools' 40 page PDFs to find ACT/SAT medians and metrics for admissions.
 
Thank you for this resource!! A question that I haven’t seen posed:

On the Cycle Results page, the Number of Applications stat and the Number of Interviews stat on the Key Statistics table is significantly higher than the corresponding numbers of Secondaries Received and Interviews Received numbers on the corresponding graph and the Current Applicants table.

So for example for Harvard as of this morning, there are 600 applications and 16 interviews under Key Statistics, but less than 300 Secondaries Received on the graph and only 8 Interview Received on the detailed Current Applicants list.

Why this discrepancy? Is it solely due to people requesting their cycle data not be disclosed?

Thanks!
 
Thank you for this resource!! A question that I haven’t seen posed:

On the Cycle Results page, the Number of Applications stat and the Number of Interviews stat on the Key Statistics table is significantly higher than the corresponding numbers of Secondaries Received and Interviews Received numbers on the corresponding graph and the Current Applicants table.

So for example for Harvard as of this morning, there are 600 applications and 16 interviews under Key Statistics, but less than 300 Secondaries Received on the graph and only 8 Interview Received on the detailed Current Applicants list.

Why this discrepancy? Is it solely due to people requesting their cycle data not be disclosed?

Thanks!
Yeah the difference arises from applicants who turn on the privacy feature.
 
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Good information, but the ranking methodology is horse ****.
 
Good information, but the ranking methodology is horse ****.

Always happy to hear your feedback. I modeled it after the existing USNWR rankings but made several improvements that I described in my original post, so at a minimum it’s an improvement over existing rankings.

I think one of the major issues with ranking in general is that there’s so little publicly available data, which leads to the variables included and overall methodology to be pretty narrow (usually focused around research).

In the future I hope to allow each applicant to define custom weights for each category, so that they can create personalized rankings in line with their priorities.
 
At the end of the day, what should make one school better or higher ranked than others?

Is it match rate into selective specialties? If so, don't the schools with higher MCAT averages have an implicit bias that perhaps reflects their students capabilities rather than the school itself?

What about funding? If you're not planning on getting into research, should that matter at all? It could affect what residencies you proper research opportunities for but will it affect the education you receive?

There are charts showing that Step 2 scores directly correlate with MCAT scores. What impact does the actual school itself have?
 
At the end of the day, what should make one school better or higher ranked than others?

Is it match rate into selective specialties? If so, don't the schools with higher MCAT averages have an implicit bias that perhaps reflects their students capabilities rather than the school itself?

What about funding? If you're not planning on getting into research, should that matter at all? It could affect what residencies you proper research opportunities for but will it affect the education you receive?

There are charts showing that Step 2 scores directly correlate with MCAT scores. What impact does the actual school itself have?
If it were my own personal rankings, probably info that has to do with curriculum (P/F, no mandatory attendance, etc), financial aid, location (student dependent), and match quality.

With regard to matching, what you said is definitely correct but I think of it as "if I got a 90th+ percentile Step 2 score, would the prestige of my school hinder me when applying to match into the target program I want to attend." How this would be measured I'm not really sure - PD rankings and surveys, or some other derivative perhaps?

I think the point above encompasses what most people look for from rankings though - the boost or nerf that a school gives to an otherwise standardized application when it comes to applying to residency, aka if I go to Harvard what is my advantage over an applicant with the same application but coming from St. George's when applying to X residency program. Call this value the "alpha" of a school. And it just so happens that the USNWR rankings seem to be a relatively consistent way of measuring the alpha, or excess boost, that a school provides to an applicant when matching into a competitive program, because physicians on the residency program committee have a bias trained on years of USNWR rankings.

So maybe it's not that research funding is what makes a school "better", but rather because USNWR decided 100 years ago to incorporate it into the ranking formula, which gave certain schools an advantage in the rankings over others, which gave residency PD's a bias for certain schools over others when accepting applicants, which only reinforced the existing rankings, that caused the rankings to be how they are today.

Said another way, how would prestige look like today if USNWR decided that family medicine was the basis of rankings, so your local state school became ranked #1 and Harvard became ranked #100, and everyone treated these rankings as the gold standard (as they do/did today) and chose the state school over HMS? In this case, I would argue that you would match better to top programs from your state school instead of HMS because PD's would take note of your school's prestige, even though nothing about the school itself warrants that.

Summary: Rankings is not really about the school itself. 100 years ago USNWR decided that research was important for rankings, everyone including residency PD's paid attention to said rankings, so now the "better" school is the one with higher research funding because it is correlated with rank and if your rank is higher you get an advantage in residency admissions because its what PD's have a bias for. For all we care, USNWR could have based rankings on the number of vowels in a school's name, and if enough people paid attention to these rankings and gave it credibility, the more the number of vowels in a school's name would be correlated with match success, ranking, and prestige.
 
If it were my own personal rankings, probably info that has to do with curriculum (P/F, no mandatory attendance, etc), financial aid, location (student dependent), and match quality.


Summary: Rankings is not really about the school itself. 100 years ago USNWR decided that research was important for rankings, everyone including residency PD's paid attention to said rankings, so now the "better" school is the one with higher research funding because it is correlated with rank and if your rank is higher you get an advantage in residency admissions because its what PD's have a bias for. For all we care, USNWR could have based rankings on the number of vowels in a school's name, and if enough people paid attention to these rankings and gave it credibility, the more the number of vowels in a school's name would be correlated with match success, ranking, and prestige.

I agree with all of this. The continued validation of the existing ranking keeps perpetuating itself and they end up with the highest MCAT averages which will correlate to step 2 scores, the matches, and PD biases ad infinitum.

What impact do you think the new tier rankings on USN have, especially with most if not all the T20s no longer being ranked at all? Will they just remain frozen in time, indefinitely, from before?
 
I agree with all of this. The continued validation of the existing ranking keeps perpetuating itself and they end up with the highest MCAT averages which will correlate to step 2 scores, the matches, and PD biases ad infinitum.

What impact do you think the new tier rankings on USN have, especially with most if not all the T20s no longer being ranked at all? Will they just remain frozen in time, indefinitely, from before?
I personally think that USNWR will bring back their rankings using publicly available data (no factual basis behind this, just my feelings) to bypass the schools that aren't submitting any info. The new ones are essentially meaningless and until a new ranking system becomes the center of attention for MD admissions which probably takes a while, you can expect the existing ranks to essentially be frozen solid imo.
 
I personally think that USNWR will bring back their rankings using publicly available data (no factual basis behind this, just my feelings) to bypass the schools that aren't submitting any info. The new ones are essentially meaningless and until a new ranking system becomes the center of attention for MD admissions which probably takes a while, you can expect the existing ranks to essentially be frozen solid imo.

That’s an interesting point. Your admit.org rankings have a few shakeups in the top 20s and a lot in the T50. If the PD scores are king, are derived from US News, and are frozen in the time - then aren’t the admit.org rankings inaccurate/irrelevant?
 
That’s an interesting point. Your admit.org rankings have a few shakeups in the top 20s and a lot in the T50. If the PD scores are king, are derived from US News, and are frozen in the time - then aren’t the admit.org rankings inaccurate/irrelevant?
The problem with the USNWR PD scores is that they had really low sampling rates (only 20-30% of PD's submitted responses to the survey I believe). As far as the Admit rankings, they are only as relevant or irrelevant as people decide they are I would say.
 
@HappyRabbit Sorry to bother, but I believe Emory's numbers might need some tweaking if you have the time. The MSAR reported 55 MD in-state matriculants and 3 MD/PhD in-state matriculants, for a total of 58. Admit.org reports 57 total in-state acceptances, so that would be higher than a 100% yield!
 
@HappyRabbit Sorry to bother, but I believe Emory's numbers might need some tweaking if you have the time. The MSAR reported 55 MD in-state matriculants and 3 MD/PhD in-state matriculants, for a total of 58. Admit.org reports 57 total in-state acceptances, so that would be higher than a 100% yield!
Yeah I need to go through and update all of the numbers, will try to do it tomorrow. They're from the cycle before the one that just finished. The correct number is 74 accepted for 55 matriculants in case you were curious.
 
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Yeah I need to go through and update all of the numbers, will try to do it tomorrow. They're from the cycle before the one that just finished. The correct number is 74 accepted for 55 matriculants in case you were curious.
Thanks!
 
I'll try to do it for next cycle - figured it wasn't worth this cycle since there wouldn't be that much data but there's enough users now to justify adding MD/PhD
Would you have any statistics on application submission dates?
1) Admission rate on secondaries submitted within two weeks of receiving secondaries, 4 weeks, 8 weeks, 12 weeks, over 12 weeks, etc.
2) Admission rate for secondaries submitted later in the cycle, early July, late July, early August, late August, etc.
3) Admission rate for beyond two weeks plus later in the cycle (ex. receive 7/15, submit 9/15)

Thank you.
 
Would you have any statistics on application submission dates?
1) Admission rate on secondaries submitted within two weeks of receiving secondaries, 4 weeks, 8 weeks, 12 weeks, over 12 weeks, etc.
2) Admission rate for secondaries submitted later in the cycle, early July, late July, early August, late August, etc.
3) Admission rate for beyond two weeks plus later in the cycle (ex. receive 7/15, submit 9/15)

Thank you.
At the end of the cycle I'll have all of the completed cycle results and can begin coming up with a way to share the trends either here or on the site itself.
 
maybe not the right place to ask this... But what does AOA mean on the admit website when looking at curriculum?
 
maybe not the right place to ask this... But what does AOA mean on the admit website when looking at curriculum?
Alpha Omega Alpha, it's the honor society for the top X% of people in your graduating class at medical school. Some schools allow for induction before graduation, while other schools wait, while some others don't have a chapter or induction at all from what I understand
 
It doesn’t work for some people (who use certain niche internet providers) - if you let me know which it is I can try to contact them. Should be able to find it by running an internet speed test on Google.
The admit link doesn't work for me. ATT fiber.
 
@HappyRabbit according to a current M2 and a current M4, Michigan has dropped their internal ranking as of this year. It was part of some larger changes in how they do clinical grading!
 
@HappyRabbit according to a current M2 and a current M4, Michigan has dropped their internal ranking as of this year. It was part of some larger changes in how they do clinical grading!
Thanks will change! Also been working on more updates again that I hope to get out during winter break - we started anatomy so been busy 🙁
 
I'm back with the first feature in a while - school updates. You can see what types of communication (update, intent, interest) that schools accept both before and after interview, as well as any additional info like whether letters of intent are highly valuable to certain schools (Mayo, etc).

You can find the link here: School Updates – Admit.org

You will also notice that all of the links now start with the med subdomain, because I'll be releasing Admit for college next week with similar features, and hopefully more in the future (dental, law, MBA, etc).

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I'm back with the first feature in a while - school updates. You can see what types of communication (update, intent, interest) that schools accept both before and after interview, as well as any additional info like whether letters of intent are highly valuable to certain schools (Mayo, etc).

You can find the link here: School Updates – Admit.org

You will also notice that all of the links now start with the med subdomain, because I'll be releasing Admit for college next week with similar features, and hopefully more in the future (dental, law, MBA, etc).

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what an awesome feature -- thanks!!

FYI -- KPSOM does not accept letters of intent prior to interview. i just talked with admissions about it.
 
@HappyRabbit I'm sure this question has been answered before but I could not find the answer. How am I to understand the "acceptances" portion of school statistics? For schools that have a relatively small class size (like NYU with 100), do the 219 acceptances represent 100 initial acceptances followed by 119 off of a waitlist as people choose other schools? Or do schools accept a surplus initially (i.e. 150 for a 100 person class) and then the additional 69 seats are for waitlist admissions? These just seem like massive numbers for schools that end up with only around 100 matriculants and I was just confused. Thanks in advance for your help and all you've done!
 
@HappyRabbit... For schools that have a relatively small class size (like NYU with 100), do the 219 acceptances represent 100 initial acceptances followed by 119 off of a waitlist as people choose other schools? Or do schools accept a surplus initially (i.e. 150 for a 100 person class) and then the additional 69 seats are for waitlist admissions? These just seem like massive numbers for schools that end up with only around 100 matriculants and I was just confused. Thanks in advance for your help and all you've done!
Read
 
Thanks for the article. So that would mean that 119 individuals turned acceptances to NYU last year? Isn't that an absurd number/wouldn't that infer that 119 offers were extended off of the waitlist?
Actually if only 119 were taken off the waitlist, that's not a lot, especially touting free tuition. You never know on an individual level.
 
Actually if only 119 were taken off the waitlist, that's not a lot, especially touting free tuition. You never know on an individual level.
Okay, I'm not sure I understand and I may just be being a bit of a dummy. That would mean that the equivalent of 1.2x the class size declined the offer of acceptance? So that those other 119 offers could be made? And for instance the AAMC data on waitlists says that JHU accepts about 25 people off the waitlist each year, but their admit.org stats show that they accepted a total of 288 students for a class of 120. So that would mean that 168 offers of acceptance were made to the waitlist, right? I could be tripping. I read the article but now I'm still not getting my mind wrapped around it.

I think the reason I'm confused is because people always make it seem like an acceptance off the waitlist is super unlikely, but these numbers seem to disagree with that
 
Okay, I'm not sure I understand and I may just be being a bit of a dummy. That would mean that the equivalent of 1.2x the class size declined the offer of acceptance? So that those other 119 offers could be made? And for instance the AAMC data on waitlists says that JHU accepts about 25 people off the waitlist each year, but their admit.org stats show that they accepted a total of 288 students for a class of 120. So that would mean that 168 offers of acceptance were made to the waitlist, right? I could be tripping. I read the article but now I'm still not getting my mind wrapped around it.

I think the reason I'm confused is because people always make it seem like an acceptance off the waitlist is super unlikely, but these numbers seem to disagree with that
heres my understanding:

you are thinking too rigidly about how many people can be accepted post-interview -- i dont believe that it's limited to seat #. schools can send more acceptances than seats available. some schools dont pull off many from their waitlists because their accepted group of students, after subtracting those who do not attend, roughly equal their goal # of students.

sometimes this strategy doesnt work which is when you see schools talk about "over-admittance"
 
Okay, I'm not sure I understand and I may just be being a bit of a dummy. That would mean that the equivalent of 1.2x the class size declined the offer of acceptance? So that those other 119 offers could be made? And for instance the AAMC data on waitlists says that JHU accepts about 25 people off the waitlist each year, but their admit.org stats show that they accepted a total of 288 students for a class of 120. So that would mean that 168 offers of acceptance were made to the waitlist, right? I could be tripping. I read the article but now I'm still not getting my mind wrapped around it.

I think the reason I'm confused is because people always make it seem like an acceptance off the waitlist is super unlikely, but these numbers seem to disagree with that
Not every applicant that receives an acceptance to a school ends up enrolling. If one applicant receives an acceptance to five schools, they are only able to attend one of them, leaving the other schools with an offer that doesn't convert into a class spot.

Depending on the school, the number of accepted applicants can range from 1.5x to 3x the incoming class size.
 
I'm back with the first feature in a while - school updates. You can see what types of communication (update, intent, interest) that schools accept both before and after interview, as well as any additional info like whether letters of intent are highly valuable to certain schools (Mayo, etc).

You can find the link here: School Updates – Admit.org

You will also notice that all of the links now start with the med subdomain, because I'll be releasing Admit for college next week with similar features, and hopefully more in the future (dental, law, MBA, etc).

View attachment 396602
I love this new feature, but FYI--These are some discrepancies based on my research/directly through the app process:

Wright state only accepts letters post-interview invite "Applicants may submit Letters of Intent, Updates, and Notices of Significant Updates or Achievements only through the "Submit Additional Documentation" feature, which becomes available if invited to interview. " Prerequisites and Application

Penn State does not accept updates MD Program - Admission and Interview Process - Penn State College of Medicine "The College of Medicine will not accept updates, including additional letters of recommendation or update letters from applicants, post-submission."

Louisville does not allow any updates, interest, or intent unless explicitly asked by the school for more information (directly emailed admissions to confirm).
 
I love this new feature, but FYI--These are some discrepancies based on my research/directly through the app process:

Wright state only accepts letters post-interview invite "Applicants may submit Letters of Intent, Updates, and Notices of Significant Updates or Achievements only through the "Submit Additional Documentation" feature, which becomes available if invited to interview. " Prerequisites and Application

Penn State does not accept updates MD Program - Admission and Interview Process - Penn State College of Medicine "The College of Medicine will not accept updates, including additional letters of recommendation or update letters from applicants, post-submission."

Louisville does not allow any updates, interest, or intent unless explicitly asked by the school for more information (directly emailed admissions to confirm).
Thanks will correct.
 
Hopkins has data from the 2022 cycle because I wasn't able to find the recent data that breaks it down by state. Would it be better to have the latest data but missing in and out of state, or having slightly older data for some schools but including those breakdowns? Something to consider especially because its largely consistent year over year.

I'll add an icon showing that the data is a year old (or perhaps keep 2022 for the old breakdowns?)
From my interview recently, they claim to be 33%
 
One of the first features for the residency version of the site will be aggregated match lists, where you can click each med school and see what specialties and programs MS4's matched into. I'm also just about finished with the activities manager for med school, which will help applicants keep track of their activities in a really simple interface.

Eventually, I hope to also be able to give automatic suggestions to applicants through the activities manager for how to improve their ECs as well as help applicants become aware of red flags in their application, such as no clinical hours or nonclinical hours. One of the biggest issues I've seen in the current admissions landscape is that qualified applicants are ending cycles as reapplicants because they didn't know schools screened low activity hours in these categories, or mistakenly thought that being a teaching assistant counted as nonclinical volunteering for example.

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One of the first features for the residency version of the site will be aggregated match lists, where you can click each med school and see what specialties and programs MS4's matched into. I'm also just about finished with the activities manager for med school, which will help applicants keep track of their activities in a really simple interface.

Eventually, I hope to also be able to give automatic suggestions to applicants through the activities manager for how to improve their ECs as well as help applicants become aware of red flags in their application, such as no clinical hours or nonclinical hours. One of the biggest issues I've seen in the current admissions landscape is that qualified applicants are ending cycles as reapplicants because they didn't know schools screened low activity hours in these categories, or mistakenly thought that being a teaching assistant counted as nonclinical volunteering for example.

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Breathtaking. You're an absolute legend for all of the work you've put into this. So many people have and will benefit from this guidance on their path to medicine!
 
Wanted to mention a feature on the website that I think is currently bugged/not working as intended. When I click the "show my schools only" button in the school rankings tab, the site shows me the schools from the list it generated for me, and not the schools to which I actually applied.
 
Wanted to mention a feature on the website that I think is currently bugged/not working as intended. When I click the "show my schools only" button in the school rankings tab, the site shows me the schools from the list it generated for me, and not the schools to which I actually applied.
oops, sorry about that! Will fix.
 
The residency version of Admit is now live here - the first three features are:

1. Aggregated match lists from the top ~50 schools - working on manually collecting the rest.
2. Program statistics divided by specialty, including Step 2 averages per program
3. Overall specialty statistics (including things like AOA %, Step 2, research items, etc).

Let me know what you all think of it and if you have any feedback - I'll write a more thorough post tomorrow about what the next features are and how I hope to build a better alternative to the spreadsheets that applicants are currently using for application tracking.
 
of the first features for the residency version of the site will be aggregated match lists, where you can click each med school and see what specialties and programs MS4's matched into. I'm also just about finished with the activities manager for med school, which will help applicants keep track of their activities in a really simple interface.

Eventually, I hope to also be able to give automatic suggestions to applicants through the activities manager for how to improve their ECs as well as help applicants become aware of red flags in their application, such as no clinical hours or nonclinical hours. One of the biggest issues I've seen in the current admissions landscape is that qualified applicants are ending cycles as reapplicants because they didn't know schools screened low activity hours in these categories, or mistakenly thought that being a teaching assistant counted as nonclinical volunteering for example.

In other words...

hey arnold nicksplat GIF


Believe the experts! Seriously people! 🙂 🙂

Just noting though: the problem is the way AMCAS and AACOMAS categorize your hours is NOT the way admissions committees will read them. Having 200 hours of volunteer tutoring is not the same as 200 hours of food bank, environment cleanup, or non-profit leadership.

Some med schools (Rush) have made it clear what their average entering class hours have been (though I can't seem to find it right now). I think I recall they claimed 500 hours as their average once before, but I am one who hates "averages" to describe a non-normal-curved population.

It's still about holistic review and mission fit. Don't think it's just about what you did; it's about how the schools value what you did.
 
Just finished the Sankey generator which will go live tomorrow on the application manager page. Noticed that a lot of the current tools used to make Sankey's are pretty ugly and hard to read so this should be quite the visually appealing alternative that also takes away the hassle of making one.

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I'm now working on the essay manager, which I hope to have done in early May - it'll allow applicants to add essays to their profile and access an on-site editor to edit and save changes to their essays. I think this could be helpful with prewriting secondaries especially.

Eventually, I hope to add automated tools in the essay manager that provide applicants with school-specific guidance and essay suggestions based on their entire application, activities, and general profile.

After this I'll be going back to the residency features and probably working on a program list builder and signaling tool. Not sure yet though 😀

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If you are able to make an announcement with those who registered for 2024-2025, our Spring 2025 applicant survey is out. HPSA/SDN wants to know how applicants did in the application process with results (offer, waitlist at this time, rejections) and what contributed to one's success, including an understanding of mission fit.

Introduction is the link. (Let me know if you want the spelled out link to share.)

The more responses we get, the more we can advise and advocate for future applicants.
 
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