dang, I am going to have to say something here..... lol
Your chart is no good. What the heck is High Demand / Moderate Demand / Demand in Balance ?? My point is that, if we want to read and evaluate a chart, analysis, projection or research, etc., we need to understand what the thesis, methodology, calculation, analysis, and results are to understand what and where the flaws, faults, and biases are . I do not know how familiar you are with the scientific method, but your chart is meaningless without those I've just mentioned.
If we really want to look at the saturation problem objectively, we need to look at raw and hard data. We need to know
how many new grads are (or going to be), i.e. supply side, and
how many jobs are (or going to be), i.e. demand side. Demand vs. Supply. Simple economics.
Sooo, let's talk numbers:
*SUPPLY: how many grads are going to graduate this year ?? in 20018 - 2022 ??
-as of right now, there are about 140 pharmacy schools in the U.S. (go ahead and count them if you would like
http://www.aacp.org/about/membership/institutionalmembership/Pages/usinstitutionalmember.aspx )
-assuming an avg of 100-150 students per class, that is
14,000 - 21,000 new grads per year. That is about 56,000 - 84,000 new grads in 2018, 84,000 - 126,000 new grads in 2020,
112,000 - 168,000 new grads in 2022 assumed NO new pharmacy school opens.
*DEMAND: how many jobs are available there now ?? in 2018 - 2022 ??
-Per 2013 data: according to the BLS, there were 287,420 employed pharmacists in the US
http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes291051.htm
View attachment 188060
-Based on 2013 data, the BLS estimate for pharmacist job outlook / growth
for 2012 - 2022 is
14% or
41,400 jobs.
(If you used the 287,420 figure of currently employed pharmacist, 14% x 287,420 = 40, 238.80 new jobs available between 2012 - 2022, which is very close to the BLS figure of 41,400). http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes291051.htm
View attachment 188059
*********
So, let's look at the numbers again:
*SUPPLY = about 56,000 - 84,000 new grads in 2018, 84,000 - 126,000 new grads in 2020,
112,000 - 168,000 new grads in 2022 assumed NO new pharmacy school opens.
*DEMAND = based on 2013 data, the BLS estimate for pharmacist job outlook / growth is 14% or
41,400 jobs for 2012 - 2022.
OK, so:
In 2022, there are 41.4K jobs : 112 - 168K new grads. Or ~ 30% chance of being employed or ~60% chance of being unemployed.
That means, approximately only 1 out of 3 new grads will be able to find a pharmacist job in 2022.
The other 2 of the 3 is going to have do something else. What are they going to have to do after 6 - 8 yrs of school (+ residency) to survive and pay back 150K+ in student loans with interests ??
NO saturation ?? lol
In fact, saturation is already happening right now in 2014.
NOT GRIM ENOUGH ????
Those above numbers might not scare some of you, but they are scaring the h@ll out of me...
I dont know if it is clear enough for many like you yet
but LOL
************
Now let's discuss a little....
IMHO, this whole saturation/oversupply mess started by schools' greed. They started out by inflating the credentials from BSPharm to PharmD to capture more money in tuition. Ask those working pharmacists out there, and the majority would tell you that there is no need for PharmD in the real practice of pharmacy. Who benefits from this inflation ?? pharmacists ?? NO. Patients ?? NO. Schools ?? YES (in the extra tuition).
The transition from BSPharm to PharmD created 1 - 4 year gap which artificially created the "shortage", i.e. if there had been no mandate of the PharmD degree, no "shortage" would have happened. Because there was / is no "shortage", the 80ish pharmacy schools would eventually catch up and produce enough pharmacists to fill up that gap.
Unfortunately, schools have used and continued using this "shortage" excuse to expand and open more and more new pharmacy schools to capitalize on expensive tuition and easy student loans. There were only ~ 80 schools in the late 1990's. There were 133 pharmacy schools in the early 2014. As of December 2014, there are 140 ACCP member pharmacy schools. More are still in the process of opening. The expansion rate is exponential !! At this rate, in 2022, how many schools of pharmacy schools in the US ??????? How many new PharmDs that are there in 2022 ?????????
Indeed, if there were still 80 schools in 2014 to produce ~ 8 - 12K grads per year (assuming avg class size of 100-150), they would produce around 64 - 96K of new grads between 2014 - 2022. This number is already more than the BLS's estimated number of 41,400 new pharmacist jobs for 2022 (based on 2013 data). Yes, according to this calculation, we would already have an oversupply of new grads even if there were still 80 schools, let alone 140 or 200 schools...
sadly, nothing any single individual can do about this problem. No one or pharmacy group/organization wants to do anything either.... ACPE ?? ACCP ?? Schools ?? Why stop ?? they always got paid FIRST. This saturation problem is anyone's but theirs. Why should they care ?? Their incentive is collecting money in tuition / accreditation + membership fees, thus it is no wonder why they continue pushing the "shortage" illusion...
Too many pharmacy schools = dropping admission standards. Browsing around this forum and the pre-pharmacy forum, you will see... 2.0's GPA, low PCAT, no PCAT, no nothing, no problem... anyone and everyone can get in, get good grades, do networking and job experience and be a pharmacist....
The future trend in healthcare is to do more with less. With no role expansion for the pharmacy profession and threats of pharmacist jobs being replaced by technology, the numbers of new jobs would be contracting. In addition, people are living longer and staying with their jobs longer. Where are the jobs for all those new grads that schools and more schools keep pumping out ??
There are already enough signs from new grads looking for jobs now in 2014 warning us about saturation / oversupply.... just google and see for yourself....
I don't know about you but personally, I would not want to go to school and pay ~ 150K in tuition alone + 6-8 yrs of my life (plus residency) to do a job where everyone can do and take my job. Look at laws and nursing.... Who in his / her right mind wanna pay / invest that much and has to struggle ??
But yeah, if you wanna go anywhere and take any kind of salary no matter how low and compromise to whatever employers' demand, you might still always have a job...
I want to say more but it looks like I am gonna have to write a book so I am gonna stop for now... But let me quote you here,
"A poor job outlook is when supply actually exceeds demand, and that has yet to happen in pharmacy".
To that, let me say: if you wanna talk about outlook, you have to look beyond what is now to see and prepare for things that have not yet happened. Because when things have already happened so obviously that you can see with your eyes,
it is already too late bro !!
Who wanna spend 150K+ in tuition + 6-8 yrs of your life (+ residency) and take the risks of future unemployment/underemployment and/or wait to see 20-30 buck an hour wage or news headlines of unemployed pharmacists who cannot repay their loans to be 100% certain that there is saturation in pharmacy ??
You sure can bet it is not me.
GL
