What do I need to know about coronavirus?

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I run a dedicated COVID19 Screening Clinic, because our hospital's ED and UCC was just getting hammered by masses of 'worried well' people presenting with just a simple cold/flu, who do not even fit the suspected case definition to warrant testing.

I have had no positives for COVID19 at our screening clinic (although, it's just a matter of time), and almost all of them are testing positive for some other virus like Rhinovirus, Adenovirus, Influenza, etc. Vast majority are the worried well, paranoid, and xenophobic.

But hey. I can't complain. Getting paid double-time / over-time. And it's the most mindless job I've had. 10 hours of just swabbing people and telling them to go home and stop panicking.
 
Funny, I had someone with a good story, entire respiratory panel negative, returned from a moderate risk area. Couldn't get testing...
 
I run a dedicated COVID19 Screening Clinic, because our hospital's ED and UCC was just getting hammered by masses of 'worried well' people presenting with just a simple cold/flu, who do not even fit the suspected case definition to warrant testing.

I have had no positives for COVID19 at our screening clinic (although, it's just a matter of time), and almost all of them are testing positive for some other virus like Rhinovirus, Adenovirus, Influenza, etc. Vast majority are the worried well, paranoid, and xenophobic.

But hey. I can't complain. Getting paid double-time / over-time. And it's the most mindless job I've had. 10 hours of just swabbing people and telling them to go home and stop panicking.

Where is this screening clinic?
 
99% of human rabies cases come from bites from rabid dogs. Where are those? India. There are thousands of cases there every year. Here in the US, it's less than 50. We have Rabavert and RIG. We also vaccinate animals; in my town, it's required for dogs (I don't know if that is a town ordinance, or state, but it's required for a town dog license). Rabies and tetanus are the only two things against which you can immunize after infection. That's not transmission here, that's incidence. You get bit by a rabid dog, it's very likely in India, and you are very likely going to die from it, there, unfortunately. That's my end of it.

Out of curiosity, if you had to be confined in a room with a small pox victim or a rabid patient with no ppe which would you choose?

I find the prospect of catching either terrifying, but I know what room I’m taking. The rabid person is going to twitch and gargle a little, and I am going to have an unpleasant time watching someone die.

In the other room I’ve got a roughly 50% chance of death and significantly higher chance of disfigurement.

no one is debating that rabies is an infectious disease or that people contract it. They are debating the likelihood of transmission from person to person. Putting small pox and rabies in the same sentence in that context is ludicrous.
 
Out of curiosity, if you had to be confined in a room with a small pox victim or a rabid patient with no ppe which would you choose?

I find the prospect of catching either terrifying, but I know what room I’m taking. The rabid person is going to twitch and gargle a little, and I am going to have an unpleasant time watching someone die.

In the other room I’ve got a roughly 50% chance of death and significantly higher chance of disfigurement.

no one is debating that rabies is an infectious disease or that people contract it. They are debating the likelihood of transmission from person to person. Putting small pox and rabies in the same sentence in that context is ludicrous.
"Ludicrous" is overstating things. One thing is that person to person of rabies transmission is low. That's in the data. I'm guessing that that is because people that are symptomatically rabid are not, usually at all, totally isolated until the absolute very first second they see another human, and bite them. Were you locked in a room with this rabid other person? I don't know if they would bite you. HOWEVER, from dog bite or raccoon bite, totally reasonable. You are getting lost in the weeds. From an infected host, to you, rabies and smallpox are both easily transmitted. Want to see hijinx? Have your animal handlers breed up infected raccoons, and dump then into a suburban area. Hilarity ensues! That's called "bioterrorism".

I am not worried about the corona virus, because I know the stats and victim types. I still think that this one is Chinese bioterrorism. If they could (I don't have any security clearance, to know if they actually have) weaponize rabies, I would not be surprised if they have tried it out already.
 
Funny, I had someone with a good story, entire respiratory panel negative, returned from a moderate risk area. Couldn't get testing...

What is a "moderate risk area"? I'm under the impression that an area is either "high risk" (China, S Korea, Japan, Italy, Iran) or it isn't. Reputable source please...
 
At the end of the day we shouldn't be worried about a virus that kills 80 + year old patients with co-morbidities. Otherwise we should probably ban Xarelto too....

🤣

Seriously when I worked at a busy community trauma center I wished I could ban DOACs in those over 65.

Also they need to pull your motorcycle drivers license once a DOAC gets started for any reason.
 
What is a "moderate risk area"? I'm under the impression that an area is either "high risk" (China, S Korea, Japan, Italy, Iran) or it isn't. Reputable source please...

West coast city with community spread...
 
In case people don't want to read a subpar article written by a hypochondriac, here's the TL;DR: Journalist was in an airport in the USA where there were Chinese people getting off a plane. Journalist later gets a URI. Journalist assumes she has coronavirus. Gets mixed messages from everyone except the doctors at the ED that she goes to 3 times. The docs repeatedly say she doesn't meet criteria for testing. She then calls a bunch of people at the hospital in admin to get quotes about why they refused to test her. C-suite makes sure she gets a test for PR reasons. Surprising to absolutely no one, her swab comes back negative for COVID-19.
 
Multiple news outlets are reporting that Italy has run out of ICU beds and patients on ventilators are being placed in operating rooms.
 
In case people don't want to read a subpar article written by a hypochondriac, here's the TL;DR: Journalist was in an airport in the USA where there were Chinese people getting off a plane. Journalist later gets a URI. Journalist assumes she has coronavirus. Gets mixed messages from everyone except the doctors at the ED that she goes to 3 times. The docs repeatedly say she doesn't meet criteria for testing. She then calls a bunch of people at the hospital in admin to get quotes about why they refused to test her. C-suite makes sure she gets a test for PR reasons. Surprising to absolutely no one, her swab comes back negative for COVID-19.

“A few days later, I developed a fever, gastrointestinal symptoms, and tremors in my hands.”

Ah yes hand tremors a universal sign of COVID-19.
 
Are the sick getting sicker or are the healthy also getting affected... bc I won’t be too surprised if the same people that would be impacted with the flu are just the only people that are impacted by corona??
 
Are the sick getting sicker or are the healthy also getting affected... bc I won’t be too surprised if the same people that would be impacted with the flu are just the only people that are impacted by corona??

As with most of these respiratory viruses, it’s hitting older people and people with comorbidities hardest. I’ve said this other places but I wouldn’t be surprised if the actual case fatality ratio is more in line with South Korea (0.6ish percent) rather than the 2-3 percent everyone keeps throwing around. There are probably hundreds if not up to thousands more people who simply aren’t testing positive because they aren’t or can’t get tested. It was estimated that around 500 people would have been infected for the virus to pass between those first 2 Seattle cases, none of those people seemingly came to medical attention.

The problem is really going to be that nobody has immunity to this and it spreads fast. So it’s going to be like if 40 percent of your population gets influenza within a few weeks or a month. Even if only a small fraction of those people need ICU care, that’s going to overwhelm your resources quickly, esp if those people are taking 14 days to recover from ICU level (which is in line with what was reported in China).

So it’s very possible that the majority of people are just fine but our system is still overwhelmed just by the sheer number of people who get infected. The purpose of these travel limitations and quarantines is then really not to contain it...much of the population is likely to get infected at some point based on what some prominent epidemiologists have extrapolated. It’s to slow it down enough that our hospitals can handle the flow of really sick people.
 
As with most of these respiratory viruses, it’s hitting older people and people with comorbidities hardest. I’ve said this other places but I wouldn’t be surprised if the actual case fatality ratio is more in line with South Korea (0.6ish percent) rather than the 2-3 percent everyone keeps throwing around. There are probably hundreds if not up to thousands more people who simply aren’t testing positive because they aren’t or can’t get tested. It was estimated that around 500 people would have been infected for the virus to pass between those first 2 Seattle cases, none of those people seemingly came to medical attention.

The problem is really going to be that nobody has immunity to this and it spreads fast. So it’s going to be like if 40 percent of your population gets influenza within a few weeks or a month. Even if only a small fraction of those people need ICU care, that’s going to overwhelm your resources quickly, esp if those people are taking 14 days to recover from ICU level (which is in line with what was reported in China).

So it’s very possible that the majority of people are just fine but our system is still overwhelmed just by the sheer number of people who get infected. The purpose of these travel limitations and quarantines is then really not to contain it...much of the population is likely to get infected at some point based on what some prominent epidemiologists have extrapolated. It’s to slow it down enough that our hospitals can handle the flow of really sick people.

A problem with surge capacity in this country?
The hell, you say?!

Not in these United States.

Lol.
 
Once coronavirus cases level off and drop, the mass hysteria and media attention surrounding it will go away almost instantaneously. A year from now people will look back and barely even remember it was a thing, let alone fear it.
 
A problem with surge capacity in this country?
The hell, you say?!

Not in these United States.

Lol.
Next you’re gonna tell me that “meaningful use” policies and certificate of need rules have downstream consequences..... crazy talk 😉
 
Once coronavirus cases level off and drop, the mass hysteria and media attention surrounding it will go away almost instantaneously. A year from now people will look back and barely even remember it was a thing, let alone fear it.

@Birdstrike
Italy is a country with excellent health care, high quality public health, and a flailing economy. The central government it quite weak and citizens relish their freedoms as much as in the US, maybe more. It's not an election year there.

Yet they locked down their entire country to stop the spread of this disease. Why would they do that if it weren't serious? If it is serious there, why wouldn't it become a serious threat here?
 
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So this was posted on the physician community fb page...not my friend, but thought I would share it here...grain of salt, because I can’t personally vouch for this, but the fb is a vetted site.

Sharing from an ER physician friend:

Ok. This is heavy medical stuff, so mostly for my colleagues like myself who are dealing with things on the front lines, but this is very pertinent information for healthcare workers. It is the most detailed info I have seen so far on what we are dealing with.

This is from an anonymous intensivist in Washington state caring for covid patients. My ED director forwarded this to our group. I'm estimating it is probably a week old, given that our state lab can now process more testing kits than what is mentioned in this doctor's summary.

This is from an intensivist at XXXX and it has some very good clinical info -
_________________________________
“We've been told not to share info, but we are all doing it anyway.
Since COVID is now deemed endemic in the XXXX area, and to quote a reliable source, the rest of the country is just "lagging behind," thought I'd share some relevant details, including from CDC teleconference today for COVID providers.
- as we all assumed, it has been in community spread locally for weeks. We have seen idiopathic ARDS cases since early/mid-Feb. Retrospective testing is being done where possible. - the numbers presented in media do not reflect actual cases, obvs. Testing here only started 2/28. Our first CONFIRMED death was 2/23.
=XXX State Lab can only run 26kits/day, though they are ramping up quickly. Despite strict criteria for testing, there is a 3d backlog at this time.
- Negative Resp Path PCR is required before SARS2 test will be accepted. We have been running out of RP PCRs. This is unheard of, especially as most admitted resp pts get one during flu/cold season (mostly for approp iso, since RSV is contact). Goddess bless the local Children's hospital for sending us 60 the other night. Your hospital should begin stocking up on RP PCRs now. Our Public Health dept does not expect SARS2 tests to be ample enough to d/c the neg RP PCR requirement.
- on a related note, county lab no longer runs tests from pts not sick enough to be admitted, since dz is now endemic. Expect this will be the case elsewhere soon.
- as of today, we have 21 pts and 11 deaths since 2/28. Not including the postmortem retrospective dx of pts who died with idiopathic ARDS the prior week. Of note, Harborview had an idiopath ARDS death 2/26. There will be more retrospective dx. - our mortality rate is skewed up (and in some cases, down) because many of our pts come from the LCCK SNF (Lifecare Care Center of Kirkland) & are elderly and severely chronically medically ill - the sort of pts who die of rhinovirus. Many of these patients' families are opting for comfort care, as many are DNI. We have 3 such on the floor on comfort care now. Of note, those 3 pts have what would be considered mild infxn in a different cohort.
- we are seeing pts who are young (20s), fit, no comorbidities, critically ill. It does happen. - media (including NYT) are mentioning "efforts to contain the outbreak" at the SNF.
I'm sure you are all aware, but the US has been past containment since January, and the SNF cases aren't an "outbreak" they're a cluster. - thus far many pts have contacts there (esp visiting family members), but also at a local HD center and a car dealership. Others have zero identifiable contacts at all, tho I suspect many have Costco-horde connections, heh. - fortunately Evergreen has capability to turn all or half of any ward into a neg pressure zone
Currently, all of ICU is for critically ill COVIDs, all of XXX floor medsurg for stable COVIDs and EOL care, half of PCU, half of ER. New resp-sx pts Pulmonary Clinic offshoot is open.
- in XXXX, CDC is no longer imposing home quarantine on providers who were wearing only droplet iso PPE when intubating, suctioning, bronching, and in one case doing bloody neurosurgery on these pts in the week prior to testing starting. Because that resulted in our Stroke Center hospital no longer being able to admit LVOs or any kind of bleed. And decimated 10% of our Hospitalists, 3 of the 6 Night docs, and a PCCM. Plus it's now endemic. Expect when it comes to your place you may initially have staff home-quarantined. Plan for this NOW. Consider wearing airborne iso PPE for aerosol-generating procedures in ANY pt in whom you suspect COVID, just to prevent the mass quarantines.
- we ran out of N95s (thanks, Costco hoarders) and are bleaching and re-using PAPRs, which is not the manufacturer's recommendation. Not surprised on N95s as we use mostly CAPRs anyway, but still. Supplies are en route, but your facility may wish to stock up now, esp if you expect each staff member and room to have its own PAPR/CAPR.
- terminal cleans (inc UV light) for ER COVID rooms are taking forever, Enviro Services is overwhelmed. Bad as pts are stuck coughing in the waiting room. Rec planning now for Enviro upstaffing, or having a plan for sick pts to wait in their cars (that is not legal here, sadly).

- CLINICAL INFO based on our cases and info from CDC conf call today with other COVID providers in US:
- the Chinese data on 80% mildly ill, 14% hospital-ill, 6-8% critically ill are generally on the mark. Data very skewed by late and very limited testing, and the number of our elderly pts going to comfort care. - being young & healthy (zero medical problems) does not rule out becoming vented or dead - probably the time course to developing significant lower resp sx is about a week or longer (which also fits with timing of sick cases we started seeing here, after we all assumed it was endemic as of late Jan/early Feb). - based on our hospitalized cases (including the not formally diagnosed ones who are obviously COVID - it is quite clinically unique) about 1/3 have mild lower resp sx, need 1-5L NC. 1/3 are sicker, FM or NRB. 1/3 tubed with ARDS. Thus far, everyone is seeing: - nl WBC. Almost always lymphopenic, occasionally poly-predominant but with nl total WBC. Doesn't change, even 10days in. - BAL lymphocytic despite blood lymphopenic (try not to bronch these pts; this data is from pre-testing time when we had several idiopathic ARDS cases) - fevers, often high, may be intermittent; persistently febrile, often for >10d. It isn't the dexmed, it's the SARS2. - low ProCalc; may be useful to check initially for later trending if later concern for VAP etc. - up AST/ALT, sometimes alk phos. Usually in 70-100 range. No fulminant hepatitis. Notably, in our small sample, higher transaminitis at admit (150-200) correlates with clinical deterioration and progression to ARDS. LFTs typically begin to bump in 2nd week of clinical course. - mild AKI (Cr <2). Uncertain if direct viral effect, but notably SARS2 RNA fragments have been identified in liver, kidneys, heart, and blood.
- characteristic CXR always bilateral patchy or reticular infiltrates, sometimes perihilar despite nl EF and volume down at presentation. At time of presentation may be subtle, but always present, even in our pts on chronic high dose steroids. NO effusions. CT is as expected, rarely mild mediastinal LAD, occ small effusions late in course which might be related to volume status/cap leak.
- Note - China is CT'ing everyone, even outpts, as a primarily diagnostic modality. However, in US/Europe, CT is rare, since findings are nonspecific, would not change management, and the ENTIRE scanner and room have to terminal-cleaned, which is just impossible in a busy hospital. Also, transport in PAPRs. Etc. 2 of our pts had CTs for idiopathic ARDS in the pre-test era; they looked like the CTs in the journal articles. Not more helpful than CXR. - when resp failure occurs, it is RAPID (likely 7-10d out from sx onset, but rapid progression from hospital admit). Common scenario for our pts is, admit 1L NC. Next 12hrs -> NPPV. Next 12-24hrs -> vent/proned/Flolan. - interestingly, despite some needing Flolan, the hypoxia is not as refractory as with H1N1. Quite different, and quite unique. Odd enough that you'd notice and say hmmm. - thus far many are dying of cardiac arrest rather than inability to ventilate/oxygenate. - given the inevitable rapid progression to ETT once resp decompensation begins, we and other hosps, including Wuhan, are doing early intubation. Facemask is fine, but if needing HFNC or NPPV just tube them. They definitely will need a tube anyway, & no point risking the aerosols. - no MOSF. There's the mild AST/ALT elevation, maybe a small Cr bump, but no florid failure. except cardiomyopathy. - multiple pts here have had nl EF on formal Echo or POCUS at time of admit (or in a couple of cases EF 40ish, chronically). Also nl Tpn from ED. Then they get the horrible resp failure, sans sepsis or shock. Then they turn the corner, off Flolan, supined, vent weaning, looking good, never any pressor requirement. Then over 12hrs, newly cold, clamped, multiple-pressor shock that looks cardiogenic, EF 10% or less, then either VT->VF-> dead or PEA-> asystole in less than a day. Needless to say this is awful for families who had started to have hope. - We have actually had more asystole than VT, other facilities report more VT/VF, but same time course, a few days or a week after admit, around the time they're turning the corner. This occurs on med-surg pts too; one today who is elderly and chronically ill but baseline EF preserved, newly hypoTN overnight, EF<10. Already no escalation, has since passed, So presumably there is a viral CM aspect, which presents later in the course of dz. - of note, no WMAs on Echo, RV preserved, Tpns don't bump. Could be unrelated, but I've never seen anything like it before, esp in a pt who had been HD stable without sepsis.

Treatment -
- Remdesivir might work, some hosps have seen improvement with it quite rapidly, marked improvement in 1-3 days. ARDS trajectory is impressive with it, pts improve much more rapidly than expected in usual ARDS.
- Recommended course is 10d, but due to scarcity all hosps have stopped it when pt clinically out of the woods - none have continued >5d. It might cause LFT bump, but interestingly seem to bump (200s-ish) for a day or 2 after starting then rapidly back to normal - suggests not a primary toxic hepatitis.
- unfortunately, the Gilead compassionate use and trial programs require AST/ALT <5x normal, which is pretty much almost no actual COVID pts. Also CrCl>30, which is fine. CDC is working with Gilead to get LFT reqs changed now that we know this is a mild viral hepatitis.
-currently the Gilead trial is wrapping up, NIH trial still enrolling, some new trial soon to begin can't remember where.

- steroids are up in the air. In China usual clinical practice for all ARDS is high dose methylpred. Thus, ALL of their pts have had high dose methylpred. Some question whether this practice increases mortality.
- it is likely that it increases seconday VAP/HAP. China has had a high rate of drug resistant GNR HAP/VAP and fungal pna in these pts, with resulting increases mortality. We have seen none, even in the earlier pts who were vented for >10d before being bronched (prior to test availability, again it is not a great idea to bronch these pts now).
- unclear whether VAP-prevention strategies are also different, but wouldn't think so?
- Hong Kong is currently running an uncontrolled trial of HC 100IV Q8.
- general consensus here (in US among docs who have cared for COVID pts) is that steroids will do more harm than good, unless needed for other indications.
- many of our pts have COPD on ICS. Current consensus at Evergreen, after some observation & some clinical judgment, is to stop ICS if able, based on known data with other viral pneumonias and increased susceptibility to HAP. Thus far pts are tolerating that, no major issues with ventilating them that can't be managed with vent changes. We also have quite a few on AE-COPD/asthma doses of methylpred, so will be interesting to see how they do.

That's all I got for now. Will be skipping the next 2 CDC COVID calls as working Nights, but will call in again next week and keep you all posted.

Plz share info but preferably with no direct attribution as I need to remain employed"
 
Next you’re gonna tell me that “meaningful use” policies and certificate of need rules have downstream consequences..... crazy talk 😉

Don't wind me up tonight.
I've had quite the week.

Full disclosure:

Got an e-mail from site medical director about the "awful patient satisfaction scores and perception" about my one job site.
For the record, its a job site that I have not been at since early December. This is by design.

It also happens to be the job site that we have hired two providers (1 physician, 1 MLP) from in the past several months.

HCA just doesn't get it.

Their shop is completely imploding, and all that they can do is send out missives that say: "the beatings will continue until morale improves".

I want to hurt them. Not in real-life, but I want to hurt their cartoon-visages on a well-rendered and pixellated screen with an eight-button controller in my hand.

The old, decrepit MBA types. The vultures, fletched, leched, and grey. Picking whatever face-meat is left out of the corpse of medicine; because that's all they know how to do. After all; they've never done anything else; just picked carrion. All their lives. At least when I cross into the afterlife, I get to stand up and say something (pathetic though it may be) about " I had my hands in the blood of your servants all my professional life." Proud? Maybe that's my sin; but I did it for the right reasons. "Whenever you did it for these, the least of my Bretheren; so you did it for me."

The fat, buttery sycophants that have gone from "MD/DO" to "management"... those that buddy-up next to the vultures... Soon, the vultures will turn to feast on them, once the vultures figure out that they can no longer insulate themselves from scrutiny by surrounding themselves with old-doc ButterBirds to act as a ButterBuffer. I hate these birds the most of all.

For the ButterBirds? Well; they've made their bed. They're going to be killed by the young falcons, and then have their carcasses scavenged by their former "friends" in an ultimate Act of Judas. I feel nothing for them. Eternal Purgatory be unto you. Keep eating, birdies. You'll soon eat each other, you disgusting traitors. Expect No Quarter from me. I will give you neither the Satisfaction of Forgiveness, or the Release of Death.

For those young falcons coming into the field:

Keep your powder dry, and your claws sharp.
 
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- we are seeing pts who are young (20s), fit, no comorbidities, critically ill. It does happen

I'm curious about this part. Mortality in young, healthy patients has not been reported on in the media.
 
@Birdstrike
Italy is a country with excellent health care, high quality public health, and a flailing economy. The central government it quite weak and citizens relish their freedoms as much as in the US, maybe more. It's not an election year there.

Yet they locked down their entire country to stop the spread of this disease. Why would they do that if it weren't serious? If it is serious there, why wouldn't it become a serious threat here?

Agree. The numbers across the board don't make any sense. Italy has a fatality rate of over 5% now, but South Korea is 0.5% (still significantly higher than influenza). Regardless we cannot come to a true conclusion yet. I don't think fear mongering is appropriate, but for some physicians to completely blow it off shows a high degree of ineptitude.
 
I won’t be too surprised if the same people that would be impacted with the flu are just the only people that are impacted by corona??
They're not. If it were just a matter of people depleting their physiologic reserve, like with flu, we would be seeing mortality on both ends of the age spectrum. We would also be seeing a much higher concordance in the mortality rates between younger but chronically ill patients and the elderly. That's not what's happening. Young people just aren't dying of this. Not kid under 10 and very few adolescents. No neonates affected. Commorbidities affect mortality but its nowhere near as strong as the correlation with age. That all suggests some other mechanism of action.
 
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I am not worried about the corona virus, because I know the stats and victim types. I still think that this one is Chinese bioterrorism. If they could (I don't have any security clearance, to know if they actually have) weaponize rabies, I would not be surprised if they have tried it out already.

I know not to argue with you, but I can't tell if you are serious about this. Are you saying you think COVID19 is a domestic and then worldwide terror attack?

If so, please tell me more.

What support can you give for this theory?
Why would they "attack" their own country and economy first and hardest?
Why would they choose such a poor bioterrorism agent/weapon?

If you are not serious, please tell me I am dense dunce with no sense of humor!

HH
 
I know not to argue with you, but I can't tell if you are serious about this. Are you saying you think COVID19 is a domestic and then worldwide terror attack?

If so, please tell me more.

What support can you give for this theory?
Why would they "attack" their own country and economy first and hardest?
Why would they choose such a poor bioterrorism agent/weapon?

If you are not serious, please tell me I am dense dunce with no sense of humor!

HH
Corona virus - along with astro and rhino, one of three that cause coryza. Mildly pathogenic. These cause the URIs we see.

2002, SARS, a corona virus from China. IDSA #1 theory, a broken water pipe in Hong Kong. #2? Bioterrorism.

So, right away - two pathogenic corona viruses, in less than 20 years, from China? Why haven't wild types of astro or rhino reverted to more virulent and pathogenic? Or in Africa, or India?

Then, how many people are there in China? As A. Whitley Brown said on SNL more than 30 years ago, "in China, your can be a one in a million guy, and that means there's still 1000 other guys just like you!" In China, the government can kill 10 million people out in the country, and that doesn't even make a dent.

So, why? Why not? First, is it accidental, or intentional? Maybe a little of each. But, think of it this way - Saudi Arabia had enough in reserve to be "last man standing". They can sell at a loss, because others will be out of business before them. Likewise, I can easily see China just letting it out, and seeing what happens, like a turd in a swimming pool, or releasing squirrels into your local Wal-Mart, with the US stock market dropping like a stone being one example, and another is the nearly inhumane quarantine is people on ships. Where have you not heard of problems? Beijing. The Polit Buro is in no danger. They can tolerate damage to them well enough, as long as there is a war of attrition, leaving others in tatters. Notice the disinformation with how much or little mortality - I still don't know.

So, that is my response.
 
Corona virus - along with astro and rhino, one of three that cause coryza. Mildly pathogenic. These cause the URIs we see.

2002, SARS, a corona virus from China. IDSA #1 theory, a broken water pipe in Hong Kong. #2? Bioterrorism.

So, right away - two pathogenic corona viruses, in less than 20 years, from China? Why haven't wild types of astro or rhino reverted to more virulent and pathogenic? Or in Africa, or India?

Then, how many people are there in China? As A. Whitley Brown said on SNL more than 30 years ago, "in China, your can be a one in a million guy, and that means there's still 1000 other guys just like you!" In China, the government can kill 10 million people out in the country, and that doesn't even make a dent.

So, why? Why not? First, is it accidental, or intentional? Maybe a little of each. But, think of it this way - Saudi Arabia had enough in reserve to be "last man standing". They can sell at a loss, because others will be out of business before them. Likewise, I can easily see China just letting it out, and seeing what happens, like a turd in a swimming pool, or releasing squirrels into your local Wal-Mart, with the US stock market dropping like a stone being one example, and another is the nearly inhumane quarantine is people on ships. Where have you not heard of problems? Beijing. The Polit Buro is in no danger. They can tolerate damage to them well enough, as long as there is a war of attrition, leaving others in tatters. Notice the disinformation with how much or little mortality - I still don't know.

So, that is my response.

So, to summarize:

You were being serious when you said:
I know the stats and victim types. I still think that this one is Chinese bioterrorism. If they could (I don't have any security clearance, to know if they actually h

From this response, I must assume you are being serious.

Tell me otherswise.

HH
 
So, to summarize:

You were being serious when you said:


From this response, I must assume you are being serious.

Tell me otherswise.

HH
Why would I tell you otherwise? If you have a point, get to it - clearly. You asked, I answered. If you think I'm wrong or deluded, just say it. And tell me what I don't know about stats and victims.
 
I run a dedicated COVID19 Screening Clinic, because our hospital's ED and UCC was just getting hammered by masses of 'worried well' people presenting with just a simple cold/flu, who do not even fit the suspected case definition to warrant testing.

I have had no positives for COVID19 at our screening clinic (although, it's just a matter of time), and almost all of them are testing positive for some other virus like Rhinovirus, Adenovirus, Influenza, etc. Vast majority are the worried well, paranoid, and xenophobic.

But hey. I can't complain. Getting paid double-time / over-time. And it's the most mindless job I've had. 10 hours of just swabbing people and telling them to go home and stop panicking.

The clinic my husband and I usually attend have had to start refusing to see patients with cold and flu symptoms, because of the current hysteria that's blown their consult times out to the point where they haven't even got time to get to all of their patients. Someone only has to cough or sneeze in the waiting room, and suddenly everyone there needs extra time so the Doctor can basically tell them to calm the eff down. My husband is sick with a bad cold at the moment, we tried to do the right thing and phone ahead to see if there was anything we could do to not contribute to the panic going on and were basically told, 'We can't see you at this clinic right now'. Ended up just going to smaller, more local clinic, had a bit of a laugh about the hysteria over Covid 19, and just take a few days off work, rest up, get well soon. In the meantime footage outside the Royal Melbourne's covid 19 testing clinic is like a line up of mostly white folks who don't even look like they've even remotely got symptoms of anything (and yeah they set clinics up here as well, because the EDs and UCCs were being deluged with status hystericus cases).
 
@Birdstrike
Italy is a country with excellent health care, high quality public health, and a flailing economy. The central government it quite weak and citizens relish their freedoms as much as in the US, maybe more. It's not an election year there.

Yet they locked down their entire country to stop the spread of this disease. Why would they do that if it weren't serious? If it is serious there, why wouldn't it become a serious threat here?
I didn’t say it wasn’t a serious thing. It is serious. But so are lots of things that people don’t panic about, like overdoses which kill 40,000 per year, cars which kill 35,000 per year and flu which kills 30,000-50,000 per year. Why are people panicking about something that’s killed not even 35 people in USA, compared to what’s already killing 35,000 people and not stopping? It’s a study is group psychology, that’s all I’m saying. Coronavirus is serious, but it’s not 1,000 times more serious than car, flu and OD deaths. They’re all equally as serious. But Coronavirus is causing 1,000 times more panic than the others. Why is that?

We should take Coronavirus seriously. But maybe we shouldn’t become numb to everything else killing tens of thousands in our midst that are just as serious that we’ve decided to treat as passé.
 
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@Birdstrike
Italy is a country with excellent health care, high quality public health, and a flailing economy. The central government it quite weak and citizens relish their freedoms as much as in the US, maybe more. It's not an election year there.

Yet they locked down their entire country to stop the spread of this disease. Why would they do that if it weren't serious? If it is serious there, why wouldn't it become a serious threat here?
The question isn’t really if this is a “serious” disease. Even if I roll with the notion that it’s more serious than the regular flu or any other number of problems in the country, the question is would limiting rights actually stop it? (I’m going to say no and need to be convinced otherwise). And then, and this is a big step....even if you can prove that quarantines enforced by constant threat of violence (which is what it would take here) could stop the disease, you have to convince me the loss of liberty is somehow worth it. I just don’t see anyone being able to make both those steps with what we are seeing here so far

I’m kind of with birdstrike here
 
The question isn’t really if this is a “serious” disease. Even if I roll with the notion that it’s more serious than the regular flu or any other number of problems in the country, the question is would limiting rights actually stop it? (I’m going to say no and need to be convinced otherwise). And then, and this is a big step....even if you can prove that quarantines enforced by constant threat of violence (which is what it would take here) could stop the disease, you have to convince me the loss of liberty is somehow worth it. I just don’t see anyone being able to make both those steps with what we are seeing here so far

I’m kind of with birdstrike here
I'm not worried about the people on this forum. We're all rational medical professionals here and we know that we need to wash hands, stay home when sick, develop a vaccine and make our hospitals formulate a plan for surges of the walking well, while shoring up supplies of ventilators, ED and ICU staff.

The people I'm worried about are the people punching each other in the faces fighting over their doomsday supplies of toilet paper and cigarettes in the isles of Sam's Club over a virus that hasn't killed 30 Americans yet, on the same day they go to their doctor and refuse a vaccination for a virus that is killing 30,000/yr, and throw a tantrum to get opiates that are killing 30,000/yr. They're numb to the stuff that's 1,000 times more likely to harm them, and 1,000 times more panicked over the thing that hasn't even happened yet.

But I know how people are. And I know how they're going to be. And I know they're going to panic over stuff that has a 0.00001% chance of killing them (30 in 300,000,000) and literally ask for, and welcome into their bodies, stuff that's 1,000 times more dangerous. Because that's how people are and that's how they've always been. So none of this surprises me as I sit back and watch it all. And it won't surprise me in 1 year when they no longer care about coronavirus after it's killed 100 times more people than it has now, and they're panicking over something new they read about on the internet that they don't understand, while refusing the newly developed vaccine for the virus they claimed would end their family and the world the year before.
 
@Birdstrike

Yes. But the issue with coronavirus is what happened in Italy- it struck all at once, and the hospitals were overwhelmed. As in ran out of vents and a lotta people are just getting palliative care as an option.

I agree curtailing rights is a big deal and may not be successful and comes at a huge cost. That isn't my question- the question is why aren't we testing and isolating sick people? I object to the idea that people will "forget about this" unless we are simply lucky, and I see no reason we would be; Italy wasn't.

The issue is that this is a new infectious disease that could (as it did in Italy) hit all at once, simply overwhelming the (much more robust) medical system. Without adequate testing (we have done basically none) and preparation, parts of the US will be overwhelmed, as Seattle is.

This country is handling this horribly; we may pay the price, and we may not forget. We have not forgotten HIV, nor the 1918 flu.
 
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@Birdstrike

the question is why aren't we testing and isolating sick people?
We are testing people and quarantining coronavirus patients. That's exactly what we are doing. That's what the positive tests you're hearing about in the news are coming from. Hospitals can test. Labcorp announced they have a test. I don't even take care of these patients and I'm getting e-mails from the hospital I'm on staff at every 4 hours about what they're doing to prepare for this virus they haven't treated a single patient with yet. My group sent out an e-mail last week about LabCorp's having an outpatient test we can send out for if needed. Bill Gate's foundation says they'll soon have a home test. A vaccine is in development. This is all for a virus sub-type that no one knew existed 3 months ago.

All presumed positives are quarantined in some form under the direction of state and local health departments. So, far 27 people have died from it in USA, the majority of which were in a single nursing home in Washington state. There is a massive and widespread response going on across the country and worldwide, and most states in this nation of 300,000,000 people haven't had a single death from it, due to this response. Where are you that they're not testing or quarantining coronavirus patients?
 
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I'm curious about this part. Mortality in young, healthy patients has not been reported on in the media.

But notice that he didn't say mortality, just morbidity. So these guys probably go down at times but get back up eventually after being vent supported for a while.

If we get to true triage mode where people are having to decide who goes on a vent or not due to shortage, this may be something to keep in mind. 30yo otherwise healthy people may need to get preference over tubing 75yo grandma with 2 stents, DM and Stage III CKD since one of them seems to be far more likely to make it out the other end than the other. Also probably has way more physiologic reserve to deal with the viral cardiomyopathy that the post is talking about.
 
well I’m not super worried about it but basically these people aren’t that sick for like 8-9 days. it’s in the community, it looks more like a cold than influenza (not so much fever). we’re not testing everyone who looks like a URI, we can’t even if we want to. if these people self-isolate, cool, but odds are many won’t and it will spread.

We are testing people and quarantining coronavirus patients. That's exactly what we are doing. That's what the positive tests you're hearing about in the news are coming from. Hospitals can test. Labcorp announced they have a test. I don't even take care of these patients and I'm getting e-mails from the hospital I'm on staff at every 4 hours about what they're doing to prepare for this virus they haven't treated a single patient with yet. My group sent out an e-mail last week about LabCorp's having an outpatient test we can send out for if needed. Bill Gate's foundation says they'll soon have a home test. A vaccine is in development. This is all for a virus sub-type that no one knew existed 3 months ago.

All presumed positives are quarantined in some form under the direction of state and local health departments. So, far 27 people have died from it in USA, the majority of which were in a single nursing home in Washington state. There is a massive and widespread response going on across the country and worldwide, and most states in this nation of 300,000,000 people haven't had a single death from it, due to this response. Where are you that they're not testing or quarantining coronavirus patients?
 
Corona virus - along with astro and rhino, one of three that cause coryza. Mildly pathogenic. These cause the URIs we see.

2002, SARS, a corona virus from China. IDSA #1 theory, a broken water pipe in Hong Kong. #2? Bioterrorism.

So, right away - two pathogenic corona viruses, in less than 20 years, from China? Why haven't wild types of astro or rhino reverted to more virulent and pathogenic? Or in Africa, or India?

Then, how many people are there in China? As A. Whitley Brown said on SNL more than 30 years ago, "in China, your can be a one in a million guy, and that means there's still 1000 other guys just like you!" In China, the government can kill 10 million people out in the country, and that doesn't even make a dent.

So, why? Why not? First, is it accidental, or intentional? Maybe a little of each. But, think of it this way - Saudi Arabia had enough in reserve to be "last man standing". They can sell at a loss, because others will be out of business before them. Likewise, I can easily see China just letting it out, and seeing what happens, like a turd in a swimming pool, or releasing squirrels into your local Wal-Mart, with the US stock market dropping like a stone being one example, and another is the nearly inhumane quarantine is people on ships. Where have you not heard of problems? Beijing. The Polit Buro is in no danger. They can tolerate damage to them well enough, as long as there is a war of attrition, leaving others in tatters. Notice the disinformation with how much or little mortality - I still don't know.

So, that is my response.

lol this is so full of conspiracy theory BS

So the huge animal markets where they stuff tons of live mammals together in cages and then put them in the middle of thousands of people who clean their cages, touch them and bring them home live to cook up and eat could never be a breeding ground for inter-species viral transmission? Rightttttt
 
we’re not testing everyone who looks like a URI, we can’t even if we want to.
You shouldn't test "everyone who looks like a URI," with no COVID-19 risk factors, and why would you?
Since there is no treatment for COVID-19 other than supportive care for complications, the only benefit to testing for it is epidemiologic, but why can't you test for COVID-19, "even if you want to," as you say? No kits?
 
We are testing people and quarantining coronavirus patients. That's exactly what we are doing. That's what the positive tests you're hearing about in the news are coming from. Hospitals can test. Labcorp announced they have a test. I don't even take care of these patients and I'm getting e-mails from the hospital I'm on staff at every 4 hours about what they're doing to prepare for this virus they haven't treated a single patient with yet. My group sent out an e-mail last week about LabCorp's having an outpatient test we can send out for if needed. Bill Gate's foundation says they'll soon have a home test. A vaccine is in development. This is all for a virus sub-type that no one knew existed 3 months ago.

All presumed positives are quarantined in some form under the direction of state and local health departments. So, far 27 people have died from it in USA, the majority of which were in a single nursing home in Washington state. There is a massive and widespread response going on across the country and worldwide, and most states in this nation of 300,000,000 people haven't had a single death from it, due to this response. Where are you that they're not testing or quarantining coronavirus patients?

Nationwide, we've tested very few people, and while the disease has been endemic in parts of the country since January, the CDC (for reasons unknown) refused the WHO test and delayed and limited testing due to a self-made shortage of the test, thus allowing it to spread quickly. Due to the shortage of testing, we don't really know how widespread this is.

I'm glad your area/facilities are doing a great job. Here there is a huge shortage of testing kits, and they are only allowing tests on people who have returned from Italy/Korea/China, even though there is community spread in several parts of the US and we have many folks returning from there who are high risk. The tests take 48 hours to come back, so it's really hard to track spread and find and isolate areas of local transmission. They keep saying there are no cases here (we are a major tourist destination), but that's because they haven't tested anyone. Here it's a cover-up. I'm glad your area is doing better and has a robust response. Ours does not. Many places do not.
 
Correct, all our testing goes through the state. They approve any testing. I guess LabCorp is supposed roll out their test this week, so there’s another option I suppose.

There’s community transmission right now, in many places I imagine. Not sure that the risk factors matter so much anymore. The benefit to knowing wouldn’t be treatment it would be being able to isolate cases ASAP.

You shouldn't test "everyone who looks like a URI," with no COVID-19 risk factors, and why would you?
Since there is no treatment for COVID-19 other than supportive care for complications, the only benefit to testing for it is epidemiologic, but why can't you test for COVID-19, "even if you want to," as you say? No kits?
 
You know what that means, right?
If that's true that there's many cases out there that we haven't tested, it means the death rate is much lower than quoted. Because the people dead or dying in the ICU with unexplained viral pneumonia and ARDS are getting tested. The ones who have nothing more than a cold or even asymptomatic carriers are not. Therefore, we don't know the denominator (Cororavirus deaths/Total Coronavirus patients) but what we do know is it's much, much higher than the amount of positive tests. For that reason, it's very possible, in fact likely, the real death rate is much lower, to the extent that community spread has occurred.
 
We couldn't buy our normal household hand sanitizer or baby wipes. Not to horde, just usual replacement supply. Apparently all sold out... everywhere I looked, including internet.
I'm not worried about the people on this forum. We're all rational medical professionals here and we know that we need to wash hands, stay home when sick, develop a vaccine and make our hospitals formulate a plan for surges of the walking well, while shoring up supplies of ventilators, ED and ICU staff.

The people I'm worried about are the people punching each other in the faces fighting over their doomsday supplies of toilet paper and cigarettes in the isles of Sam's Club over a virus that hasn't killed 30 Americans yet, on the same day they go to their doctor and refuse a vaccination for a virus that is killing 30,000/yr, and throw a tantrum to get opiates that are killing 30,000/yr. They're numb to the stuff that's 1,000 times more likely to harm them, and 1,000 times more panicked over the thing that hasn't even happened yet.

But I know how people are. And I know how they're going to be. And I know they're going to panic over stuff that has a 0.00001% chance of killing them (30 in 300,000,000) and literally ask for, and welcome into their bodies, stuff that's 1,000 times more dangerous. Because that's how people are and that's how they've always been. So none of this surprises me as I sit back and watch it all. And it won't surprise me in 1 year when they no longer care about coronavirus after it's killed 100 times more people than it has now, and they're panicking over something new they read about on the internet that they don't understand, while refusing the newly developed vaccine for the virus they claimed would end their family and the world the year before.
 
There’s community transmission right now, in many places I imagine.
If this is true, that undetected community spread is widespread, that means two things, 1) Containment failed and isn't possible, and 2) The death rate is much lower than we think. Once we reach that point, what I predict will happen, is the recommendation will change from "Test and quarantine," to "Don't test at all, because containment isn't possible and there's no treatment," just like it was for the flu, prior to anti-influenza drugs, and only admitted patients with serious illness will be considered for testing. And that's where the media has really effed us on this. It's going to take years to undo the absolute frickin' mass hysteria they've induced on this, with people freaking out and demanding this test.
 
We couldn't buy our normal household hand sanitizer or baby wipes. Not to horde, just usual replacement supply. Apparently all sold out... everywhere I looked, including internet.
See, that's just frickin' ridiculous. We're having trouble finding surgical masks for me to do my fluoro-guided pain procedures, because people who don't need them are hoarding them along with butt wipes, sanitizer and zombie-killing ammo.
 
Who said it could never be a breeding ground?
lol this is so full of conspiracy theory BS

So the huge animal markets where they stuff tons of live mammals together in cages and then put them in the middle of thousands of people who clean their cages, touch them and bring them home live to cook up and eat could never be a breeding ground for inter-species viral transmission? Rightttttt
 
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