What do I need to know about coronavirus?

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Your example has a mortality rate of 0.03%. The WHO data shows a mortality rate of 3%, one hundred times greater. There was a paper in Lancet published electronically this morning which says that the 3% number may be significantly under-
Since we can’t test asymptomatic & subclinical cases we don’t know the denominator of the equation (death rate = infection deaths/infection deaths + infection survivors). If the denominator is falsely low, the death rate is falsely high. I’ve already posted this numerous times on this thread and it’s obvious, it should be common sense to anyone paying attention or with a background in healthcare and statistics, like all physicians should have. It’s the last time I’m typing it out.

Since we don’t have tearing fully online, US Covid-19 death rates are currently unreliable and will change, since they are false until testing is widely available.

Regardless, I’ll take your bait. If a virus with a lower “death rate” kills 18,000 and the one with the higher death rate kills 40, I sure as hell wouldn’t want the one that kills 18,000 in my population regardless of how much you like the “death rate.” Even if the US Covid-19 problem gets 10 times worse (400 deaths) or 100 times worse (4,000) deaths, it’s still less severe than past outbreaks that didn’t “collapse our health system,” “turn us into Italy,” of fulfill any of the other preposterous predictions or hysteria you and others are so irresponsibly spreading to your patients, families, general public and yourself.
 
Since we can’t test asymptomatic & subclinical cases we don’t know the denominator of the equation (death rate = infection deaths/infection deaths + infection survivors). If the denominator is falsely low, the death rate is falsely high. I’ve already posted this numerous times on this thread and it’s obvious, it should be common sense to anyone paying attention or with a background in healthcare and statistics, like all physicians should have. It’s the last time I’m typing it out.

Since we don’t have tearing fully online, US Covid-19 death rates are worthless, since they are false until testing is widely available. Regardless, I’ll take your bait. If a virus with a lower “death rate” kills 18,000 and the one with the higher death rate kills 40, I sure as hell wouldn’t want the one that kills 18,000 in my population regardless of how much you like the “death rate.” Even if the US Covid-19 problem gets 10 times worse (400 deaths) or 100 times worse (4,000) deaths, it’s still less severe than past outbreaks that didn’t “collapse our health system,” “turn us into Italy,” of fulfill any of the other preposterous predictions or hysteria you and others are so irresponsibly spreading to your patients, families, general public and yourself.

Why are the Italian and Spanish health systems collapsing?
 
Why are the Italian and Spanish health systems collapsing?
I don’t frickin’ know! How the fro would I know? Ask them!

Because they can’t handle what we can handle and have handled in the past?!

Why were we, you and l, able to handle 60 million swine flu patients in 2009, 300,000 admissions and 18,000 deaths and they can’t handle 1/10th of that right now? I don’t know! Let me know when you find out, because I have no clue.
 
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Why are the Italian and Spanish health systems collapsing?

Because in Heaven: the police are British, the lovers Italian, the cooks French, the engineers German, and it’s all run by the Swiss.

In Hell: the cooks are British, the cops German, the engineers French, the lovers Swiss, and it’s all run by the Italians...😉
 
Because in Heaven: the police are British, the lovers Italian, the cooks French, the engineers German, and it’s all run by the Swiss.

In Hell: the cooks are British, the cops German, the engineers French, the lovers Swiss, and it’s all run by the Italians...😉

Northern Italy has a pretty functional health system.
 
Dear Fellow Physicians,

During the 2009 swine flu outbreak no one even talked about it until 1,000 American deaths when the President finally declared a national emergency. It then progressed to 5,000, 10,000 then 18,000 dead with nowhere near the hysterical, panicked overreaction we’re seeing right now. We worked through this, we took care of these patients, we lived through this. We didn’t panic or predict doom and gloom. 2 months and a countless doomsday predictions into the current outbreak, we’re at 40 COVID-19 deaths. You know what we as doctors did do back then?

We went to work, gloved up and took care of the patients. No one canceled schools, canceled the Masters, canceled leagues, mass gatherings or predicted the end of the world. Certainly no ER doctors did that I can remember. No one said, “But what about Italy?! What about China?!” No one said, “We can’t handle this.” No one made outlandish histrionic predictions like 1.5 million deaths or even 150,000 deaths and all kinds of unhelpful predictions that everyone knows are exceedingly unlikely to actually come true. No one that I know, no self respecting ER Doctor panicked like I’m seeing now. It’s pathetic. We’re supposed to be above this, calmer under pressure than the rest, not fighting people in the aisles of Costco for TP and plungers.

I don’t know what more to say, other than some people need to get themselves together. At some point, as grown men and women, we need to gather ourselves, put out heads down and go on with life, despite and through Coronavirus, which is our neighbor now, here to stay, forever, like every other virus we’ve learned to live with. We can’t go into panic-fueled hibernation forever and it’s not fair to expect those outside of Medicine that look to us for leadership to, either.

We don’t only need to move forward, we need to lead. Hearing some of you tell your families, coworkers and the public that the world is going to end is just plain unhelpful. And it’s wrong. Because as physicians and leaders (whether we like it or not) in our communities, we should know better. It’s unbecoming of people who should have the confidence that we can get through situations like this, because we’ve gone through similar things before. And if you haven’t, because you’re new to this, stop. Just stop, get out of the way, and let others lead.

If you’re a doctor and you’re still panicking about this, you need to snap out of it real quick and get it together, because your patients, families and communities need you, to. Right now, stop the doom-and-gloom Armageddon predictions and repeat this mantra to your families, your patients and yourselves, ”We’ve been through this before. We have a plan in place. We’ll get through this.” Say it, because it’s not the first nasty viral outbreak we’ve faced, and it won’t be the last. Say it, because it’s the right thing to do, and because it’s true.
 
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Right. And Italy's health system didn't collapse during swine flu. Nor did Iran's or Spain's.
You do realize Italy’s internal issues with healthcare already??? What happens when 25 percent of hospitals shut down and 25 percent of beds are no longer available over a 10 year period??? Italy is what happens lol!!! #facts
 
There's simply no way we could have manufactured 1 billion test kits in a few months. That would require resource allocation and a ramp of manufacturing capabilities not seen since WWII. We would need 1 billion test kits to test every person who comes in with a febrile illness, as well as their contacts.

I don't see how that is possible with our societal structure, and the logistics of our country.

The simplest thing we should do....and which we should be doing all the time anyway is quarantining every person with fever and respiratory symptoms until symptoms abate (doesn't necessarily have to be 14 days). If we did this every year for the flu we could certainly reduce the impact of the seasonal flu.

Of course, self-centered Americans aren't going to do this and we don't get appropriate sick leave.
 
During the 2009 swine flu outbreak no one even talked about it until 1,000 American deaths when the President finally declared a national emergency. It then progressed to 5,000, 10,000 then 18,000 dead with nowhere near the hysterical, panicked overreaction we’re seeing right now. We worked through this, we took care of these patients, we lived through this. Two months and a million doomsday predictions into this, we’re at 40 deaths. You know what we as doctors did do back then?

We went to work, gloved up and took care of the patients. No one canceled schools, canceled the Masters, canceled leagues and mass gatherings and predicted the end of the world. Certainly no ER doctors did that I can remember.

No one said, “But what about Italy?! What about China?!”

No one said, “We can’t handle this.” No one made outlandish histrionic predictions like 1.5 million deaths or even 150,000 deaths and all kinds of BS numbers that everyone knows aren’t going to come true.

No one that I know, no self respecting ER Doctor panicked like I’m seeing now. It’s pathetic. We’re supposed to be above this, calmer under pressure than the rest, not fighting people in the aisles of Costco for TP and plungers.

I don’t know what more to say, other than some people need to get themselves together. At some point, as grown men and women, we need to gather ourselves, put out heads down and go on with life, despite Coronavirus, which is our neighbor now, here to stay, forever, like every virus we’ve learned to live with. We can’t go into panic-fueled hibernation forever.

And we don’t just need to move forward, we need to lead. Hearing you all tell everyone, your families, the public that the world is going to end is just plain weak. It’s pathetic. It’s wrong. Because you all should know better. It’s unbecoming of people who should have the confidence that we can get through situations like this, because you’ve gone through similar things before. And if you haven’t, because you’re new to this, stop. Just stop, get out of the way, and let others lead.

If you’re a doctor and you’re still panicking about this, you need to snap out of it real quick and get it together, because your communities need you, too.

Right now, stop the doom and gloom Armageddon predictions and repeat this mantrato your families, your patients and yourselves,

”We’ve been through this before. We have a plan in place. We’ll get through this.”

Because it’s not the first nasty viral outbreak we’ve faced, and it won’t be the last. Because it’s the right thing to do, and because it’s true.

H1N1pdm2009 had an R0 of roughly 1.5 at its peak and a CFR almost identical to other seasonal flu in developed countries. Preliminary data out of China, S. Korea, and Europe suggests SARS-CoV-2 has an R0 of 2-3.2 and CFR that is 6-10X higher than H1N1pdm2009.

With that math in mind, I’d argue that our in-patient capacity is weaker today than it was in 2009. The number of in-patient beds in America has gradually declined and hospitals are generally operating on smaller margins.

Having said that, I’ve not seen much hysteria in this thread. I see people responding to simple math and trying to plan for its implications. On the other hand, telling people that “we’ve been through this before” is complete bull**** unless you are talking to someone who is 98 years old.
 
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There's simply no way we could have manufactured 1 billion test kits in a few months. That would require resource allocation and a ramp of manufacturing capabilities not seen since WWII. We would need 1 billion test kits to test every person who comes in with a febrile illness, as well as their contacts.

I don't see how that is possible with our societal structure, and the logistics of our country.

The simplest thing we should do....and which we should be doing all the time anyway is quarantining every person with fever and respiratory symptoms until symptoms abate (doesn't necessarily have to be 14 days). If we did this every year for the flu we could certainly reduce the impact of the seasonal flu.

Of course, self-centered Americans aren't going to do this and we don't get appropriate sick leave.

Maybe. But you have to quarantine people away from family since most transmission was via household contacts (like they did in China), which requires a huge infrastructure for childcare etc. You also have to set up dedicated fever clinics and test people's temps everywhere (home, school, work etc); we just aren't as advanced as China in our ability to set this up on short notice.

Also, as I'm sure you've read, most patients are most infectious during the asymptomatic incubation period.

I don't see people panicking. No bottled water here. I see some people minimizing, and others trying to prepare, understand, and research.
 
Maybe. But you have to quarantine people away from family (like they did in China), which requires a huge infrastructure for childcare etc. You also have to set up dedicated fever clinics and test people's temps everywhere (home, school, work etc); we just aren't as advanced as China in our ability to set this up on short notice.

Not possible in this country without the use of force because........laws. Best you could hope for is a quarantine with no physical contact and a surgical mask

Also, as I'm sure you've read, most patients are most infectious during the asymptomatic incubation period.

True, but I don't see a way around this problem. The asymptomatic are going to be out spreading it around, and it would be impossible to forcibly quarantine people.

I don't see people panicking. No bottled water here. I see some people minimizing, and others trying to prepare, understand, and research.

I see panic. I live in a serviced building and we are irrationally cancelling services that don't involve mass gatherings or close human contact. No toilet paper anywhere (for some reason). Irrational behaviors like hording toilet paper are definitely evidence of panic behavior.
 
Not possible in this country without the use of force because........laws. Best you could hope for is a quarantine with no physical contact and a surgical mask



True, but I don't see a way around this problem. The asymptomatic are going to be out spreading it around, and it would be impossible to forcibly quarantine people.



I see panic. I live in a serviced building and we are irrationally cancelling services that don't involve mass gatherings or close human contact. No toilet paper anywhere (for some reason). Irrational behaviors like hording toilet paper are definitely evidence of panic behavior.

So then why would quarantine, not social distancing, but preferred? Social distancing is much more effective than quarantine with a disease with a prolonged asymptomatic carrier phase in a country with laws. Why do you think quarantine would be more effective?

I meant no panic on this forum. Agreed on the toilet paper and bottled water madness. But people haven't been given clear guidance at the local, state, or national level, and this is what happens when there are so many voids in leadership.
 
I meant no panic on this forum. Agreed on the toilet paper and bottled water madness. But people haven't been given clear guidance at the local, state, or national level, and this is what happens when there are so many voids in leadership.
lol ok
 
So then why would quarantine, not social distancing, but preferred? Social distancing is much more effective than quarantine with a disease with a prolonged asymptomatic carrier phase in a country with laws. Why do you think quarantine would be more effective?

I think millenials already do this. Just live your life through FB and IG. Send regular TikToks on your viral progression.
 
I think leadership has been "not bad"

restricting travel from china and EU, (which by the way was somehow racist)

mobilizing funds via national emergency in this things infancy compared to H1N1

Why aren't we testing people aggressively? Why is the CDC limiting tests, against the advice of every public health expert? How and why did the CC insist on their own defective test, instead of WHO's? And since the disease is endemic here, public health experts recommended AGAINST the Europe ban. Seems like ignoring, you know, science, is an ongoing problem.
 
Cancelation of sporting events, which are entertainment-only non-essential activities is fine. If leagues that had tournaments through WWII, Vietnam, 9/11, Hong Kong flu, swine flu, H1N1 and all the other crises we went through that's fine. It will reduce spread of COVID-19 (40 USA deaths) and influenza (20,000 deaths currently). So, good. Cancel away, leagues, schools, Broadway, large gatherings. That's great. But, what do we do in May when COVID-19 is still here and the case count and death count are even higher? Do we keep all the sports leagues, schools, Broadway canceled all summer? Though next winter virus season when COVID-19 is STILL here?

Did influenza go away after it killed 400,000 worldwide (COVID-19 is 1/100th of that right now) in 2009?

In 2009, H1n1 had killed 1,000 Americans before a national emergency was even declared. How come?
Why were't all the leagues, Broadway, school and canceled then, even after the death count went over 10,000?

Again, I'm not saying don't cancel. Cancel. That's fine. But why haven't we always done this, and are we always going to do this?


I agree large scale testing is a must. S Korea had the test kits. We're slow to ramp up. That needs to be fixed. But massive, large scale testing, like we swab strep and flu patients is important. Mainly to prove that for every known case there's probably ten or a hundred out there who aren't dying and that the death rate 1/100th of what people think. That will be the most reassuring thing to everyone. And when they see Tom Hanks turns out fine. And Justin Trudeau and his wife turn out fine. And Ted Cruz turns out just fine. And the basketball and soccer players turn out just. And your neighbor had it and he's fine. And you had it and you're fine. Then America will be back to it's no-hand washing, non-vaccine taking apathy.
So what happens if Tom hanks is not fine?
 
I have inflammatory bowel disease, and I'm not hoarding TP.

If you need more than 2 twelve-packs of TP to last you a 2 week quarantine, you have other problems to discuss with your physician, and more likely, your psychiatrist/therapist.

Thats what I was saying....wtf are these people planning on eating during their quarantine, miralax?
 
So what happens if Tom hanks is not fine?
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What I have seen in this thread is senior attending physicians dismiss COVID 19 because at this current, extremely early phase along its geometric growth curve it has only caused a relatively small amount of deaths. I have seen these senior attendings insist that this current pandemic is comparable or even actually less serious than things like SARS and the Swine Flu and when confronted by irrefutable facts such as the collapse of healthcare systems during this current crisis dismiss these facts with literal "I don't know brah but who cares lol". It's eye opening.
 
Reposted from Reddit:

WA EDs with COVID19 Experience
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By Gregg Miller MD of WA ACEP March 12, 2020
We believe we currently are where many of you will be in the next couple weeks. Inside the hospital, we encourage you to save your PPE and start inpatient surge planning now. Outside the hospital, ensure your SNFs have aggressive control measures in place and work with your health systems to prepare outpatient telemedicine alternatives to the ED.
On Feb 29, we had our first reported COVID19 death in a SNF patient, though it was later recognized that two individuals died of coronavirus on Feb 26. Now, about 2 weeks later, we have had 30 deaths (many associated with a single SNF) and 373 cases as of yesterday March 11.
Every ED in the Puget Sound region has experienced an increase in respiratory cases, with multiple COVID19 positive cases each week if not daily in the ED. We have seen a concomitant decline in other issues. Some sites report up to a 20% decline in overall ED volume, thanks to aggressive messaging from organizations such as the Washington State Hospital Association and public media to stay out of the ED and likely the fear potential patients have of catching the disease in the ED. Offerings for telehealth visits from multiple health systems are also helping. While our inpatient capacity is stretched, we have not yet run out of vents or ICUs at about 2-3 weeks into the epidemic. However things are very tight. One major hospital system just announced today that starting tomorrow, all elective OR cases are canceled due to dwindling beds, blood supply, and hospital staff. We are concerned this is the "calm before the storm" and anticipate this could rapidly worsen as the epidemic evolves.
TRIAGE
Triage processes vary from ED to ED, but all have set up separate waiting areas for potential respiratory isolation. Patients are typically greeted by a staff member in PPE (which varies by institution, some in mask and gloves, some adding full gown and goggles) and triaged based on the presence of respiratory complaints. At least one ED has set up a tent for RTI surge capacity, and most EDs are creatively isolating using lobby space or evaluating stable patients in their cars. Some are advancing screening for EMS patients outside as well. In some cases, only a limited in-person exam is performed and much of the history is via telephone. To our knowledge no one has implemented a 100% telemedicine process for patients who present on hospital grounds, and everyone gets at least a focused in-person assessment as part of their EMTALA medical screening exam.
PPE
Our PPE usage follows WHO guidelines, using contact and droplet but not airborne precautions. We wear surgical masks (not N95) for standard H&Ps, in addition to face shields, gowns, and gloves. If aerosolizing procedures are being performed then staff wears an N95 instead of a surgical mask. During nasal swab collection, some hospitals are requiring N95s, others are requiring surgical masks. Most patients are treated in closed rooms, but not AIIR/negative pressure rooms. We are experiencing shortages of PPE, for example, rationing N95 masks and reusing disposable face shields after cleaning. Staff burnout on PPE remains an issue. Confusion about when to discontinue droplet and contact precautions for non-COVID rule out patients exists (i.e. dialysis patient who comes in with SOB).
TESTING
Testing is determined at the site and no longer involves calling the Department of Health prior to ordering. Workflows resemble that of STD tests – we send out labs with delayed results, and we are responsible for calling back positive cases and notifying the Department of Health. Turn-around times now are a day or two, using a combination of University of Washington (UW) laboratories and commercial laboratories. Because of the concern and potential lost work time around this illness, some of our EDs are also calling back negatives, some are not. The workflow around this differs in the hospitals, with some utilizing the ED for callbacks and others for example using Infection Control or nursing supervisors.
UW reports that about 5-10% of specimens are testing positive for COVID19, one ED reports numbers closer to 15%. We still don't understand the epidemiology and actual community prevalence. Anecdotally, when calling back the discharged 'positive patients,' all seem to be doing better and some with reported near resolution of symptoms. Unfortunately this is not the case for many admitted patients.
TREATMENT
While the vast majority of these patients are managed in the outpatient setting, we have admitted many sick individuals. We limit non-invasive ventilation given the risk of aerosolization. Intubations are done typically using PAPR/CAPR and ideally in a negative pressure room. 30 people have died, typically older with comorbidities. However there have been individuals in their 30-40s who have been intubated and who don't have significant underlying illness other than mild obesity. In some cases we are using remdesivir on a compassionate use protocol, though it's rumored this protocol will be canceled in favor of clinical trials. Some facilities are participating in the trial, enrolling all qualified, consenting admissions into a 5-day and 10-day arm trial of remdesivir (no placebo.) We are not starting patients in the ED on chloroquine or antiretrovirals.
WORK RESTRICTIONS
At least one ED physician has been infected (unclear if work or community acquired), but is recovering and several more have been placed on work restrictions after exposure. Once these clinicians tested negative, they were allowed to come back to work while wearing a mask and did not need to take the full 14 days off work.
WHAT'S NEXT
Based on the experience in Italy, we are concerned about what might happen in the next week or two. Our inpatient capacity is tight and elective surgical cases are being canceled, some chemotherapy treatments requiring hospitalization are postponed. One hospital has done a quick construction job to install fans in windows and convert a unit to negative pressure. While we are not to the point of rationing ventilators yet, we are having conversations around such protocols. A regional coalition is working on scarce resource utilization and crisis standards of care algorithms. Many sites actively are engaging their palliative care teams.
The community is beginning to finally realize the seriousness of the situation, with school closures and cancellations of large gatherings. Our workforce has consequently been impacted by childcare challenges. Some hospitals are implementing or expanding their own childcare service programs for staff. We hope that this more aggressive response helps blunt the spread locally, but our concern is that enough patients have been recently infected that when they decompensate in a few days to weeks, our capacity will be overwhelmed.
We do know we will get through this. The collaboration amongst medical staff and across disciplines is encouraging and should be noted. While we have certainly seen fear in our staff and patients, we have also seen tremendous resolve and courage. We are proud to call each other colleagues and to represent you in the front lines of medical care.
 
That doesn't sound so bad to me, but its still early on in the epidemic (here). We're not in China and I highly doubt le peste gets contained here. We have a president who's more concerned with the stock market than the health of the public, and a populace more concerned with hoarding TP and GETTING TESTED BECAUSE I JUST WANT TO BE SAFE!! than with sensible measures to prevent spread. In my opinon, it's a virtual certainty that we end up having widespread community spread.

This thing isn't Ebola and it's not a major private health concern for (most of) us. However, it seems to me an order of magnitude (not exponentially! that word is so over-and-misused) worse than the 2009 influenza. This is a major public health concern. We have a baseline mortality rate of 1.2%. My guess is we go to 1.4-1.5% this year. That's an excess million deaths.

I'm not worried about getting sick this weekend at work. But I am worried about how my wife is going to handle her grandparents' deaths in the next few months.
 
I'm sure glad a Resident[Any Field] knows more about a viral pandemic than ED physicians. Based on the current evidence, I don't anticipate collapse like Italy because of reasons already stated. Will we have millions of infections? Almost certainly. Millions of deaths? Doubtful.

Right now we know the numerator (deaths) but we have no idea what the denominator is in ANY country.

We've actually ramped up testing exponentially this week. Every patient with respiratory symptoms and negative flu is getting a COVID-19 test sent to lab and instructed to quarantine for 1-4 days until results come back. Nursing homes have stopped allowing visitors, and pretty much every large public gathering has stopped. In Vegas the Buffets are closed as are most shows. I'm not sure what additional reasonable action people on this forum think we should be taking.
 
Not here. Ski resorts open due to complete greed, no one can get tested unless ID says so. Disaster.
 
I don't anticipate collapse like Italy because of reasons already stated.
We're Not Going To Follow The Path Of Italy And Here's Why

Italy has one of the most aged populations on Earth, with the median age almost 10 years older. That's a huge skew towards the elderly, which is devastating considering how sharp the increase in COVID-19 mortality is over age 65-70. It's also customary for many extended families to live 3 generations in the same house. It's an aged population, not at all isolated, living in close quarters with younger carriers. The younger family members contract COVID-19, develop nothing more than a cold, they bring it home to grandma and grandpa who think nothing of it, but are 10-100 times more likely (15% mortality in the elderly vs. as low as <0.1-0.2% in children) to get severely ill and die. It's a perfect storm for COVID-19 which is most virulent in dense populations and the elderly, two things Italy has a lot of compared to us.

U.S.A has a much younger population that's less susceptible to severe manifestations of coronavirus and extended families living together is much less common. The elderly are more likely to be isolated, living alone or with only another elderly spouse. This makes COVID-19's work much harder in USA with one exception: Nursing homes, where you have an incredibly high concentration of elderly & comorbid extremes, plus younger nurses and staff coming and going all day long, in very close physical contact due to the patient care duties involved in nursing home care, i.e. bathing, changing catheters, cleaning up bodily fluids and so on. The COVID-19 comes in on a subclinical young person, it spreads to the elderly and does its damage. Fortunately, the majority of Americans and majority of elderly in USA don't live in nursing homes.

These are the reasons you're not seeing, and will not see, COVID-19 spreading and killing as fast or widely as in Italy, except in nursing homes like we saw in Seattle, which to date, comprises 2/3 of the 40+ COVID-19 deaths in the entire U.S.A. It might have been nice if some people had thought some of these things through before they reflexively parroted social media anecdotes from Italy, quotes from so called "experts" & media outlets with ulterior motives, before they proceeded to panic their families, friends and selves.

We're not Italy and we're not going to become Italy.
 
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We're Not Italy And We're Not Going To Become Italy. Here's Why.

Italy has one of the most aged populations on Earth, with the median age almost 10 years older. It's also customary for many extended families to live in the same house. It's an aged population, not at all isolated, living in close quarters with younger carriers. The younger family members contract COVID-19, develop nothing more than a cold, they bring it home to grandma and grandpa who think nothing of it, but are 10-100 times more likely to get severely ill and die. It's a perfect storm for COVID-19 which is most virulent in dense populations and the elderly.

U.S.A has a much younger population that's less susceptible to severe manifestations of coronavirus and extended families living together is much less common. The elderly are more likely to be isolated, living alone or with only another elderly spouse. This makes COVID-19's work much harder in USA with one exception: Nursing homes, where you have an incredibly high concentration of elderly & comorbid extremes, plus younger nurses and staff coming and going all day long, in very close physical contact due to the patient care duties involved in nursing home care, i.e. bathing, changing cathers, cleaning up bodily fluids and so on. The COVID-19 comes in a subclinical young person and it spreads to the elderly and rears it's head. Fortunately, the majority of Americans and majority of elderly in USA don't live in nursing homes.

These are the reasons you're not seeing, and will not see, COVID-19 spreading and killing as fast or widely as in Italy, except in nursing homes like we saw in Seattle, which to date, comprises 2/3 of the COVID-19 deaths in U.S.A. We're not Italy and we're not going to become Italy.

Then why are they seeing so many seriously ill young people (thirties and forties) in Italy? They aren't really treating the elders, for better or for worse; all those vents have been used up for young people. The Italian physicians have emphasized this is affecting younger people severely and terribly, and have tried hard to disabuse the rest of the world of the notion that this is only hitting the elderly and ill hard. It's unclear to me why so many here can't heed their warning.

While many in the US do live a life of privilege, we also have a large, poor urban population with minimal access to healthcare and crowded living conditions. Seems like that is an ideal situation for spread. We also have a large, deprived rural population living clustered in trailers and substandard housing with little to no access to care. What will happen to those people, and what makes you think they aren't at risk?

I agree with all the measures we are taking and our more spread-out population, this will most likely be fine, but only because we have done those things.
 
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Dear Fellow Physicians,

During the 2009 swine flu outbreak no one even talked about it until 1,000 American deaths when the President finally declared a national emergency. It then progressed to 5,000, 10,000 then 18,000 dead with nowhere near the hysterical, panicked overreaction we’re seeing right now. We worked through this, we took care of these patients, we lived through this. We didn’t panic or predict doom and gloom. 2 months and a countless doomsday predictions into the current outbreak, we’re at 40 COVID-19 deaths. You know what we as doctors did do back then?

We went to work, gloved up and took care of the patients. No one canceled schools, canceled the Masters, canceled leagues, mass gatherings or predicted the end of the world. Certainly no ER doctors did that I can remember. No one said, “But what about Italy?! What about China?!” No one said, “We can’t handle this.” No one made outlandish histrionic predictions like 1.5 million deaths or even 150,000 deaths and all kinds of unhelpful predictions that everyone knows are exceedingly unlikely to actually come true. No one that I know, no self respecting ER Doctor panicked like I’m seeing now. It’s pathetic. We’re supposed to be above this, calmer under pressure than the rest, not fighting people in the aisles of Costco for TP and plungers.

I don’t know what more to say, other than some people need to get themselves together. At some point, as grown men and women, we need to gather ourselves, put out heads down and go on with life, despite and through Coronavirus, which is our neighbor now, here to stay, forever, like every other virus we’ve learned to live with. We can’t go into panic-fueled hibernation forever and it’s not fair to expect those outside of Medicine that look to us for leadership to, either.

We don’t only need to move forward, we need to lead. Hearing some of you tell your families, coworkers and the public that the world is going to end is just plain unhelpful. And it’s wrong. Because as physicians and leaders (whether we like it or not) in our communities, we should know better. It’s unbecoming of people who should have the confidence that we can get through situations like this, because we’ve gone through similar things before. And if you haven’t, because you’re new to this, stop. Just stop, get out of the way, and let others lead.

If you’re a doctor and you’re still panicking about this, you need to snap out of it real quick and get it together, because your patients, families and communities need you, to. Right now, stop the doom-and-gloom Armageddon predictions and repeat this mantra to your families, your patients and yourselves, ”We’ve been through this before. We have a plan in place. We’ll get through this.” Say it, because it’s not the first nasty viral outbreak we’ve faced, and it won’t be the last. Say it, because it’s the right thing to do, and because it’s true.

I don’t think anyone is advocating panic and hysteria. I do hope you are right and this is way overblown (and we find the “denominator” makes the mortality of this similar to regular flu about 0.1%).

However, I will point out:

1. I believe the true mortality is similar to what the Koreans have measured - probably 0.7-1% as they have extensive free testing for absolutely anyone so likely have a good “denominator”

2. This is still 7-10x deadlier than typical influenza

3. It’s not “impossible” to have a virus with mass casualties on a scale of the 1918 pandemic that overwhelms the system. Just because we haven’t seen it in our lifetime doesn’t mean it can’t happen.

4. just because the casualty figures are low now doesn’t mean they won’t rise exponentially soon

5. All we have is epidemiology to guess where those numbers will go. Just saying this is going to be similar or less bad than seasonal flu doesn’t make it true.

6. If you believe the story that mass testing/isolation early OR draconian quarantine reversed the trend in China and S Korea (vs story in Italy) -then we bungled it badly and are heading for pain.

Guess only time will tell. I hope it’s all hype.
 
I don’t think anyone is advocating panic and hysteria.
Predicting 1.5 million deaths in USA and 500 million worldwide like during the Spanish flu of 1918, which happened before ventilators, sure as hell sounds like advocating panic and hysteria to me.

2. This is still 7-10x deadlier than typical influenza
We're at 40 COVID deaths and 18,000 flu deaths ongoing. You've got a helluva long way to go, to get from 40 COVID deaths to 126,000-400,000, which would be 7-10x more than flu. So until then, you're advocating panic and hysteria with unqualified comments like that.

4. just because the casualty figures are low now doesn’t mean they won’t rise exponentially soon
And just because you have a fear in the future of deaths rising exponentially, means it will happen? An asteroid could hit Earth in the future and kill 100 million Americans, and you can't prove that wrong today either, but claiming so would sure as hell be advocating panic and hysteria.

6. If you believe the story that mass testing/isolation early OR draconian quarantine reversed the trend in China and S Korea (vs story in Italy) -then we bungled it badly and are heading for pain.
I think we're doing what will work for us in what is a very different country, with different demographics, culture and living arrangements. We're all less than 24 hours of airplane time from China, with flights coming from there daily, yet somehow those other countries have 10-100 times more cases and deaths, across much smaller swaths of land in the same time period.
 
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Why aren't we testing people aggressively? Why is the CDC limiting tests, against the advice of every public health expert? How and why did the CC insist on their own defective test, instead of WHO's? And since the disease is endemic here, public health experts recommended AGAINST the Europe ban. Seems like ignoring, you know, science, is an ongoing problem.

I’ll try and tackle your questions in chronological order. For background, the WHO identified a SARS-like illness on December 30 attributed to a novel coronavirus termed COVID-19. By January 7th the virus was identified as SARS-CoV-2 and the genome published on January 10th. On January 17, a group in Germany developed the first PCR-based nasopharyngeal detection protocol based on genomic similarities with other SARS-like coronaviruses. This would form the basis of the WHO protocol that would later be refined to focus on the virus’ envelope protein gene (E gene) and RNA-polymerase gene. The WHO sent out primers to major labs in Europe and Australia in the last week of January.

Around this time, the CDC decided to pursue its own testing protocol based on PCR for sequences in the nucleocapsid (N gene) and the same RNA-dependent RNA polymerase gene. This decision will likely be scrutinized and second guessed over the next decade or more. The current story is that the decision was based on certain desires at the CDC to develop a single PCR assay that could detect all SARS-CoV strains. Nobody in this thread was behind those closed doors, but to say that the people at CDC making that decision were ignoring science or responding to political pressure is asinine. Trust me, neither Trump nor Pence were telling scientists at the CDC which primers to use for their RT-PCT.

Over the next 6 weeks, the FDA fast-tracked the CDC protocol and by Feb 7 assays were being sent out to state health department labs. Unfortunately, issues likely related to a faulty reagent were causing false positives in the related strain categories in many state labs. This resulted in 2-3 weeks of trouble shooting that put us to Feb 25-26 when the FDA cleared state health departments in key surveillance zones of NY, LA, Chicago, Seattle, and San Fran to use the corrected assays. These states were chosen to provide an early warning. Unfortunately, certain state labs continued to have false positives with new assay, and the CDC was reluctant to open more cities to testing outside of the surveillance zones for fear of creating more false positives.

Over the past 2 weeks, we’ve seen a bunch of commercial and academic tests for SARS-CoV-2 come to fruition. Most are based on RT-PCR technology or CRISPR. Those are also in the FDA pipeline for hospitals to use and will likely improve the turn-around in coming weeks. Regardless, most of us would struggle to find an instance where we went from genome to a mass-produced and accurate test in roughly 2 months with absolutely zero hiccups.

As for the decision to ban travel from Europe - that was very smart...just like banning travel from China was. Just today the WHO labeled Europe as the new epicenter of the disease.
 
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The simplest thing we should do....and which we should be doing all the time anyway is quarantining every person with fever and respiratory symptoms until symptoms abate (doesn't necessarily have to be 14 days). If we did this every year for the flu we could certainly reduce the impact of the seasonal flu.

Seriously if we viewed the flu the same way we view SARS-COV-2 / COVID-19, there would be so many less flu problems in the US.

As it stands, every winter I, you, and all of us take care of hundreds of confirmed flu + patients and hundreds more who probably have it, and all I do is wash my hands / Purell before going into the room and after coming out. I'm not wearing a mask. I go to work sniffling sometimes. I'm not wearing full PPE. I'm never donning gloves or a mask. I bet if we did full PPE for influenza we would see 1/10 the numbers we see now.
 
Around this time, the CDC decided to pursue its own testing protocol based on PCR for sequences in the nucleocapsid (N gene) and the same RNA-dependent RNA polymerase gene. This decision will likely be scrutinized and second guessed over the next decade or more. The current story is that the decision was based on certain desires at the CDC to develop a single PCR assay that could detect all SARS-CoV strains. Nobody in this thread was behind those closed doors, but to say that the people at CDC making that decision were ignoring science or responding to political pressure is asinine. Trust me, neither Trump nor Pence were telling scientists at the CDC which primers to use for their RT-PCT.

No one claims Trump or Pence knows what a primer is.

However, it would have helped if at that time of this CDC decision - Trump wasn’t telling everyone publicly that this was a hoax, that we have the situation under great control and that he’s already done a great job at containment.

Are you saying that if a president called the head of the CDC in the first week of Feb and said
“The Koreans had 2 weeks - and now they have successfully deployed a kit that is producing 10,000 accurate tests per DAY with answers in drive-through clinics within 10 minutes. WTH are you doing and why? You have 2 weeks to make the same thing happen here or it’s your job!” it would not have modified their approach or the outcome?

For sure bad decisions were made at levels below the executive— but taking responsibility and guiding things when they are horribly off-course is, you know, his job?

It’s still mind boggling to me that a country 1/6 our size and power how now ramped up today to producing several million accurate tests per day (supplying many other countries) for the cost of 20 dollars a kit; We are still dicking around trying to get a thousand tests a day run without errors at 250 a kit. Incompetent at all levels.
 
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No one claims Trump or Pence knows what a primer is.

However, it would have helped if at that time of this CDC decision - Trump wasn’t telling everyone publicly that this was a hoax, that we have the situation under great control and that he’s already done a great job at containment.

Are you saying that if a president called the head of the CDC in the first week of Feb and said
“The Koreans had 2 weeks - and now have successfully deployed a kit that produces 10,000 accurate tests per DAY with answers in drive through clinics in 10 minutes. You have 2 weeks to make the same thing happen here.” it would not have changed their approach?

For sure bad decisions were made at levels below the executive— but taking responsibility and guiding things when they are horribly off-course is, you know, his job?

It’s still mind boggling to me that a country 1/6 our size and power is now producing several million accurate tests per day for the cost of 20 dollars a kit; We are still dicking around trying to get a thousand tests a day at 250 a kit. Incompetent at all levels.

Little late, but very promising
 
Are you saying that if a president called the head of the CDC in the first week of Feb and said
“The Koreans had 2 weeks - and now have successfully deployed a kit that produces 10,000 accurate tests per DAY with answers in drive through clinics in 10 minutes. You have 2 weeks to make the same thing happen here.” it would not have changed their approach?
so based on no knowledge you are willing to just throw this shyt at the wall and see if it sticks...right
 
I’ll try and tackle your questions in chronological order. For background, the WHO identified a SARS-like illness on December 30 attributed to a novel coronavirus termed COVID-19. By January 7th the virus was identified as SARS-CoV-2 and the genome published on January 10th. On January 17, a group in Germany developed the first PCR-based nasopharyngeal detection protocol based on genomic similarities with other SARS-like coronaviruses. This would form the basis of the WHO protocol that would later be refined to focus on the virus’ envelope protein gene (E gene) and RNA-polymerase gene. The WHO sent out primers to major labs in Europe and Australia in the last week of January.

Around this time, the CDC decided to pursue its own testing protocol based on PCR for sequences in the nucleocapsid (N gene) and the same RNA-dependent RNA polymerase gene. This decision will likely be scrutinized and second guessed over the next decade or more. The current story is that the decision was based on certain desires at the CDC to develop a single PCR assay that could detect all SARS-CoV strains. Nobody in this thread was behind those closed doors, but to say that the people at CDC making that decision were ignoring science or responding to political pressure is asinine. Trust me, neither Trump nor Pence were telling scientists at the CDC which primers to use for their RT-PCT.

Over the next 6 weeks, the FDA fast-tracked the CDC protocol and by Feb 7 assays were being sent out to state health department labs. Unfortunately, issues likely related to a faulty reagent were causing false positives in the related strain categories in many state labs. This resulted in 2-3 weeks of trouble shooting that put us to Feb 25-26 when the FDA cleared state health departments in key surveillance zones of NY, LA, Chicago, Seattle, and San Fran to use the corrected assays. These states were chosen to provide an early warning. Unfortunately, certain state labs continued to have false positives with new assay, and the CDC was reluctant to open more cities to testing outside of the surveillance zones for fear of creating more false positives.

Over the past 2 weeks, we’ve seen a bunch of commercial and academic tests for SARS-CoV-2 come to fruition. Most are based on RT-PCR technology or CRISPR. Those are also in the FDA pipeline for hospitals to use and will likely improve the turn-around in coming weeks. Regardless, most of us would struggle to find an instance where we went from genome to a mass-produced and accurate test in roughly 2 months with absolutely zero hiccups.

As for the decision to ban travel from Europe - that was very smart...just like banning travel from China was. Just today the WHO labeled Europe as the new epicenter of the disease.
Thanks @ShockIndex, I love to read a well-informed post
 
Confession: I'm not immune.

I had a patient in the ED once who was a health 20-year-old guy. He came home from work and told his roommate he had a slight headache and kicked his feet up in his recliner, but said, "I'm fine, just gonna take a nap." An hour later the roommate came back around and the guy was unresponsive, with vomiting, spit, blood and sputum out of his mouth, on his shirt, in his hair and everywhere. He came by ambulance to see Dr. Birdstrike trying harder to die than anyone I've ever seen. The only clues were "headache" and then "unresponsive, near death." Unresponsive, only guppy breathing, I intubated him first of course, through the spit, sputum, vomit, blood and boogers, and we started IV's, drew blood, put in orders yadda, yadda, yadda. His chest x-ray showed bilateral interstitial pneumonia, his WBC was very high and his head CT looked so frickin' bad, after only 60 minutes of symptoms, that the radiologist was calling, on a non-contrast scan, brain edema consistent with brain parenchymal infection with enlarged ventricles, likely increased ICP. The guy was presumed septic, meningitic, crashing, near death, needed ICU care (which we had) but also neurosurgery for a likely shunt (which we didn't have at that particular facility) if he lived. I transferred him.

A few days later we go the call that although he died quickly, all of his cultures ended up growing out meningococcus. Now, I tend not to be a panicker. And after taking care of countless patients with bad, communicable diseases and getting through it just fine, my senses have become probably excessively dulled to the prospect of getting seriously ill from any of them. But the sheer rapidity and brutality with which which this perfectly healthy kid died, struck me. Meningioucoccus is farking brutal and you can catch it, especially if you're the guy that intubated through the spit, sputum, vomit and blood. And it doesn't have a 98 or 99% survival rate. You did from it and you die badly. Or you live, maybe with no arms and legs. So, I took prophylaxis, sweated for a few days and then forgot about it for 15 years until right now.
Great story, @Birdstrike, and beyond that I appreciate you keeping this thread going with information and keeping it on track
 
How many 40 yo have more than flu symptoms? Dr Li died, but the CCP could have hastened his departure.
 
Governor of New York is reporting a large surge in cases.

Currently at 524 including 117 hospitalized with serious illness.
 
I suppose all those of us nearer to the heartland can do is prepare and look to the coasts to see what might happen where we live and work. Might be nice to have a thread that focuses on pure medicine, operational strategies, and what people are actually seeing, with less discussion on politics/media etc.
 
I'm sure glad a Resident[Any Field] knows more about a viral pandemic than ED physicians.

As a Board Certified Emergency Physician, I'll say that I don't think being a BCEP makes me more expert than a resident [any field] on the epidemiology of a viral pandemic or on what the public policy response should be - with the possible exception of the application of that policy to my particular ED.
 
H1N1pdm2009 had an R0 of roughly 1.5 at its peak and a CFR almost identical to other seasonal flu in developed countries. Preliminary data out of China, S. Korea, and Europe suggests SARS-CoV-2 has an R0 of 2-3.2 and CFR that is 6-10X higher than H1N1pdm2009.

My memory of biostatistics is a bit hazy. Forgive me for asking, but R0 is the asymptomatic period? Does a higher R0 mean a disease is deadlier?
 
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