What is your asset allocation for 2008?

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With speculation on a "possible" recession, slashed dividends (for example, Citigroup will slash their quarterly dividend by 41% this year), higher oil prices, higher gold prices, the subprime mortgage deal, other credit problems in America, the risk of higher inflation due to the Fed constantly cutting rates, election year, etc., how will you change your asset allocation this year?

Feel free to be as detailed or vague as you like:

* domestic/international allocation
* stock/bond allocation
* small/mid/large allocation
* sector allocation
* passive/active management fund allocation
* stock/mutual fund/ETF/CD/savings/liquid cash allocation

Right now the bulk of my retirement is in "safe" cash, and I need to be more aggressive this year, but I'd almost transfer most of it to international index or emerging markets funds rather than domestic stock index funds, but I really have no idea at this point.
 
intermittently long gold and black gold and all commodities for that matter

short the dollar

short commercial retail

short tech

some CD positioning

somewhat long healthcare, selective pharma

long utilities


saying stocks are on sale here are like saying stocks were on sale in 2000-1
 
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Disclaimer: I don't have that much cash and I admit that I am speculating because I don't mind if I lose it all.

I have anticipated significant inflation, weakening of the dollar, and continued correction in the stock market. I'm also think the risk of a once-in-a-generation recession is nontrivial.

Most of my retirement funds (also have some cash in online savings) have been in these for the past year or so:

BEARX -- sort of insurance against economic collapse
DBC (Deutsche Bank Commodity Index Tracking Fund)

I also have a small Fidelity 401(k) from an old job that I've been too lazy to roll into my IRA; most of that is in risky international Fidelity funds like FLATX.
 
My asset allocation has stayed the same and will not change because of the economy. Since I'm DCA into these funds, I'm taking advantage of the lower cost of the investments now.

AA- 95% Equities, 5% Fixed Income (23 years old)

40% Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTSMX)
30% Vanguard FTSE All-World ex. US (VFWIX)
15% Vanguard Small Cap Value (VISVX)
10% Vangaurd REIT (VGSIX)
5% Vanguard Inflation-Protection Securities (VIPSX)

I also have a mysmart cash account with Fido which holds Fidelity's Select Money Market Portfolio (FSLXX). I don't really count this in my asset allocation because this is treated as a checking account.

By the way, thanks ETF for suggesting this mysmart account at Fidelity. I opened one, and since it doubles as a brokerage account, I have all the money in the account invested in a MMF and keeps a $0 balance on the checking account. Any withdrawal from the checking automatically over-drafts from the MMF and sells enough shares to cover the transaction. Greatest advice I ever got from this board.
 
By the way, thanks ETF for suggesting this mysmart account at Fidelity. I opened one, and since it doubles as a brokerage account, I have all the money in the account invested in a MMF and keeps a $0 balance on the checking account. Any withdrawal from the checking automatically over-drafts from the MMF and sells enough shares to cover the transaction. Greatest advice I ever got from this board.

beautiful, isn't it? i just hope they don't decide that it's too good to be true and take the feature away from us!
 
beautiful, isn't it? i just hope they don't decide that it's too good to be true and take the feature away from us!
must get one of these in the upcoming months ...

Well I have my 401K with ML from a previous company so my allocation is mostly international and I have some real estate holdings (yes I did dump most of it from last year but I have a gut feeling). I have aggressive investments because I'm going long term. So far its worked for me ... international, small cap, is the way to go. Other than that I haven't had much money to play with so I haven't really paid attention to the markets ... trust me that will be changing soon.

Funds I have that did me good in the past but I've taken a hit this past month for about $1500 (which is a decent portion of my gains) ...

OPPENHEIMER DEV MKTS FD CL A Core 30%
PIONEER MID CAP VALUE FD CL Y Core 16%
HARBOR:SM CAP VAL;INST Core 15%
OPPENHEIMER OFITC INTERNATIONA Core 7%
AGGRESSIVE GoalManager 5%
ING INTERNATIONAL VALUE CL I Core 5%
MFS VALUE FD CL R5 Core 5%
PIMCO TOTAL RETURN FUND Core 5%
THE OAKMARK EQUITY & INCOME FD Core 5%
VANGUARD EXPLORER ADMIRAL Core 5%
ML RET PRESERVATION TRUST Core 2%

Interesting and diverse group of investors we have here, keep them coming.
 
i'm starting to shift to vanguard etfs. my 2008 roth contribution was in the REIT index etf (VNQ).

Already contributed to your 2008 Roth huh. Let me guess, you did it on January 2nd as soon as it became available.
 
Vanguard TRD 2045 which is 90% equities, 10% bonds. You can't time the market (at least I can't) so I'll continue to DCA and accumulate shares. Once I have enough assets I plan to buy separate funds based on my needed asset allocation at the time.

The economy doesn't worry me much either b/c I have a long investment horizon and am comfortable with my AA (and its volatility). I'm definitely a converted Boglehead, so the big thing to do is "stay the course."
 
Is anyone moving more money into international funds and away from domestic? I don't want to be reactionary, as my horizon is 30-40 years, but I'm new to the market for the most part.

When you start reacting to the market and shifting your desired asset allocation, you have already lost.

Choose a AA that makes sense for you based on your age, and your need for income or appreciation of equity and only shift from your allocation if those reasons that first led you to those AA change.

As I have said before, I keep buying the funds that I have listed above. Whether the market is up, down, or flatline does not matter much to me, except that I have something to talk to my colleagues about (You'd be surprised how much conversation you can have over a 75 basis point cut).
 
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When you start reacting to the market and shifting your desired asset allocation, you have already lost.
I've read this a million times; I was just curious. My [traditional] IRA is currently 100% cash due to rolling over a 401(a) and another pre-tax retirement plan into it, and this Friday, I'll make the final contribution to max it out for 2007 (FINALLY!!! YES! 😀 ), but the plan is to transfer the traditional IRA to Vanguard (or possibly Fidelity) and then convert to a Roth. So so far I haven't "reacted" to anything, nor do I think it's wise to freak out and let short-term bumps dictate my long-term AA. So you're absolutely right, and thanks for the reminder.

IceMan0824 said:
Choose a AA that makes sense for you based on your age, and your need for income or appreciation of equity and only shift from your allocation if those reasons that first led you to those AA change.
I plan on doing 100% no-load stock index funds with low expense ratios. No bonds until I'm 40. Since Vanguard funds require $3000 minimums, I'm limited to choosing one fund to begin with, so I might go with the Total Stock Market Index... but for 2008 would like to go with Total International Stock or something. Not sure...

IceMan0824 said:
As I have said before, I keep buying the funds that I have listed above. Whether the market is up, down, or flatline does not matter much to me, except that I have something to talk to my colleagues about (You'd be surprised how much conversation you can have over a 75 basis point cut).
Good idea. I'm not a trader at this point, and it's dumb to play with retirement money. Once I start having some more disposable cash, I'll have more dough to play with. But yeah, it's amusing how some people are obsessed with trying to time or predict the market.

My only fear is once I transfer (in one lump-sum) over to Vanguard, that between next week and Q4 2008, I'll see my entire 2007 IRA contributions get cut in half or something. Just curious if I should keep it in 100% cash to preserve capital until later on this year, or if I should go ahead and rollover to Vanguard.
 
Same here. Same fund. Same results YTD 🙁

i bet you're not sad anymore! haha, i picked a perfect time to become a boglehead, because reits and tips have totally kept me from jumping off a cliff. it's going to take a little bit more time for me to give up individual stock selection (which is >50% of my portfolio), but i figure if i keep adding to the index funds it should all work out in the end.
 
I plan on doing 100% no-load stock index funds with low expense ratios. No bonds until I'm 40. Since Vanguard funds require $3000 minimums, I'm limited to choosing one fund to begin with, so I might go with the Total Stock Market Index... but for 2008 would like to go with Total International Stock or something. Not sure...

i'm 23 and am glad that 10% of my portfolio is in bonds, and i'm hoping to bring that up to 20% within the next year or so.

also, from what i understand, vanguards ftse ex-us is a better international fund, especially in a taxable acct, since you get exposure to canada and also get to receive the "foreign tax credit", whatever that is...
 
Why so high on the bonds in your 20's?

Everybody has to choose the asset allocation that they are comfortable with, no matter their age. While I am comfortable with only 10% bonds for the foreseeable future no matter how the market is, there will be others my age who want 20-50% bonds in their portfolio. You have to individually decide what your risk tolerance is for your situation.
 
i'm 23 and am glad that 10% of my portfolio is in bonds, and i'm hoping to bring that up to 20% within the next year or so.

also, from what i understand, vanguards ftse ex-us is a better international fund, especially in a taxable acct, since you get exposure to canada and also get to receive the "foreign tax credit", whatever that is...

Foreign tax credit stops the double taxation. If you've (the fund that is) already paid taxes to the foreign goverment, you can deduct those taxes from your US income tax so as to prevent double taxation. Of course, this only matters if you were slated to pay taxes on the appreciation or dividend due to the fund in a taxable account. The other International Fund (not FTSE all world ex Us) is a fund of funds, and fund of funds doesn't qualify for the tax credit. If you're holding international fund in a Roth, buy the International Fund for the lower expense ratio.

By the way, you're 23. Wow, I took you to be much, much older. Maybe it's the gray hair.

I've read this a million times; I was just curious. My [traditional] IRA is currently 100% cash due to rolling over a 401(a) and another pre-tax retirement plan into it, and this Friday, I'll make the final contribution to max it out for 2007 (FINALLY!!! YES! 😀 ), but the plan is to transfer the traditional IRA to Vanguard (or possibly Fidelity) and then convert to a Roth. So so far I haven't "reacted" to anything, nor do I think it's wise to freak out and let short-term bumps dictate my long-term AA. So you're absolutely right, and thanks for the reminder.
You know the amount you roll over does not count towards your maximum for the year. I somewhat got the impression that you think it is.



I plan on doing 100% no-load stock index funds with low expense ratios. No bonds until I'm 40. Since Vanguard funds require $3000 minimums, I'm limited to choosing one fund to begin with, so I might go with the Total Stock Market Index... but for 2008 would like to go with Total International Stock or something. Not sure...
Nothing wrong with a 100% equity allocation if you're sure you can handle the daily/monthly fluctuation (noise) of such an account. I know I keep 5% in bonds (TIPS actually) just to have a different asset class that is not highly correlated to stocks.

If you're concerned about hitting the minimum on the funds you want, hold the money in a Target Retirement (20XX) until you have enough money to exchange the funds for the ones you desire. The Target funds can come close to your asset allocation, and not have you overweight one class until you have sufficient money. (On second thought, Target might be too conservative for you. The 2050, I believe, is 10% bonds.)

Good idea. I'm not a trader at this point, and it's dumb to play with retirement money. Once I start having some more disposable cash, I'll have more dough to play with. But yeah, it's amusing how some people are obsessed with trying to time or predict the market.
My dad day trades, and even trades penny stock. I do sit in the background and chuckle to myself.


Everybody has to choose the asset allocation that they are comfortable with, no matter their age. While I am comfortable with only 10% bonds for the foreseeable future no matter how the market is, there will be others my age who want 20-50% bonds in their portfolio. You have to individually decide what your risk tolerance is for your situation.
Agreed. If ETF is comfortable with his asset allocation, then kudos to him.

I took a class in undergrad that dealt with efficient frontier, and I'm convinced that 100% stock is not the most efficient risk/reward allocation. The math did not include reinvestment and only tracked different allocations over a long period. If my memory serves me correct, a 80/20 actually came out on top.
Maybe in a few years when I analyze my portfolio performance, I'll decide to change my allocation.
 
I took a class in undergrad that dealt with efficient frontier, and I'm convinced that 100% stock is not the most efficient risk/reward allocation. The math did not include reinvestment and only tracked different allocations over a long period. If my memory serves me correct, a 80/20 actually came out on top.
Maybe in a few years when I analyze my portfolio performance, I'll decide to change my allocation.

I believe no one knows exactly what their asset allocation mix and risk tolerance is until they've ridden a few down years. It's much easier to be 100% domestic equity when everything is going up but if you're on a slow descent, such as where I believe we're headed to, that's when you become a true believer. And I'm not just talking about what happened earlier this week but rather if we end 2008 with none of the domestic indices up and the same continues in 2009 and 2010.

I've done my part speculating in 2000 and I'm more than happy with a 80/20 mix given a 30+ year horizon. I'd actually go even further and divide that into:
60-70% domestic equity
10-20% international equity
20% domestic bond

After all, if you're in the health professions you won't hit your peak earnings until your 30s at the earliest so the best thing you can do with your assets before then is give them time in the market to compound. And I'm going to assume that some of the people who are 100% in domestic equity have no idea what their real risk tolerance is.
 
You know the amount you roll over does not count towards your maximum for the year. I somewhat got the impression that you think it is.

I edited the amounts out of the post you quoted, but I'm aware of it. I'll have the $4000 IRA contribution plus the 401(a) rollover and the other rollover, so the balance is more than $4000. Paperwork nightmare... but at least it's all in one account now.

My question remains if I should transfer the IRA to Vanguard/Fidelity as soon as possible (February) or wait a few months to see if the market bottoms out some more...

If you're concerned about hitting the minimum on the funds you want, hold the money in a Target Retirement (20XX) until you have enough money to exchange the funds for the ones you desire. The Target funds can come close to your asset allocation, and not have you overweight one class until you have sufficient money. (On second thought, Target might be too conservative for you. The 2050, I believe, is 10% bonds.)

Good idea. I was gungho about the Target Retirement Funds when I first learned about all this stuff but decided to venture away from the Target Retirement (fund of funds) and just buy the individual funds themselves. I might rethink that until I can get my balances up.
 
Why so high on the bonds in your 20's?

a lot of reasons - for one, the math (as far as i've seen on diehards, etc) is that there isn't much increased reward for the increased risk of 100% equities. plus, the majority of my equity holdings are individual stocks i selected myself (and a majority of that in financial stocks that have taken a beating), so although most new money is going into index funds, my portfolio is probably going to be highly volatile until index funds make up the majority of my holdings - bonds are a nice way to dampen that volatility. i used to think - hey, i'm young, i can afford to take a lot of risk because i have a long time horizon to make up for my mistakes. now i'm more like - i'm young and have a long time horizon so i don't NEED to take as much risk to get great returns. i think 80% equity is pretty aggressive as it is, and should serve me well. i still sell the occasional covered call to get my "trading fix", but i'm hoping that my core portfolio won't be something i have to really think about.
 
i bet you're not sad anymore! haha, i picked a perfect time to become a boglehead, because reits and tips have totally kept me from jumping off a cliff. it's going to take a little bit more time for me to give up individual stock selection (which is >50% of my portfolio), but i figure if i keep adding to the index funds it should all work out in the end.

That was quite a day for REITs wasn't it? +8.5% in a single day! BTW, l think lots of Bogleheads still hold individual stocks, either because they've had them a long time or they like to allocate 5-10% to a "mad money" account.
 
Why so high on the bonds in your 20's?

If you're 28 and want to retire at 50 you're the same as the average Joe who is 43 and wants to retire at 65. Do you think 43 year olds should hold bonds? Also, there is a reasonable (although admittedly fairly low) chance that bonds will outperform stocks for a long time, 10-30 years, aside from the obvious decreased volatility.
 
I put a lot of my retirement accounts into mutual funds that invest in the asian economy. Even if there is a global recession, I still think that the asian markets are going beat the western markets because their economies have more room to grow. That being said, historically, you won't go wrong by sticking to the US economy even if we are headed towards a recession because historically, even investing during a depression is profitable in the long-term.
 
Is anyone moving more money into international funds and away from domestic? I don't want to be reactionary, as my horizon is 30-40 years, but I'm new to the market for the most part.

I would stay from any international funds. Our economy is 30% of the world economy, anything that happens here will ricochet to the rest of the world like japan and china.

I would wait 6 months. I personally think tech is at a steal, but I would wait couple of more months before investing it.
 
All the respected BRIC economy ETFs.

Proshares ETFs.

Individual stocks change every few days, or weeks.
 
I find the blog World Beta very interesting. The author talks quite a bit about the "endowment style" of investing and some tactical approaches. .
 
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^ Welcome to SDN. Is that your blog? I don't want to sound accusatory, but seeing as how this is your first post, you're coming across as a spammer, especially since you registered 1/30/08 and your first post is 1/30/08 posting a link to a blog, rather than your first post being in the podiatry forums or something more rational...
 
Thanks for the welcome. Nah, not my blogg. I had to start posting somewhere, and this thread is more interesting than the "too much coffee" discussion going on over there.

Back to my cave to lurk.
 
If you're 28 and want to retire at 50 you're the same as the average Joe who is 43 and wants to retire at 65.

Well, not exactly... you'll have a longer time frame during retirement the earlier you retire. Unless, of course, you plan to retire at 50 and off yourself at 70.
 
Fair enough. Keep in mind that US bonds have outperformed US stocks for the last ten years plus.

Negative (compare total stock market vs total bond market):

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/bestfunds/2008/indexfunds.html


Bonds have their role in investment, especially amongst investors nearing retirement. But they are essentially vehicles for limiting the pain of a bear market. Over the long-run, you are better off in stocks unless the psychological torture of a bear market is too much for you-- then bonds are more than worth it.
 
But they are essentially vehicles for limiting the pain of a bear market. Over the long-run, you are better off in stocks unless the psychological torture of a bear market is too much for you-- then bonds are more than worth it.

the psychological torture of a bear market is too much for 99% of people investing money out there, including me. luckily i've never lived through a bear market per se, but i've taken huge hits to individual positions that have changed my thinking on the subject - i can't imagine my entire portfolio (which is essentially my net worth at this point) taking similar hits.
 
the psychological torture of a bear market is too much for 99% of people investing money out there, including me. luckily i've never lived through a bear market per se, but i've taken huge hits to individual positions that have changed my thinking on the subject - i can't imagine my entire portfolio (which is essentially my net worth at this point) taking similar hits.

I agree wholeheartedly, Im just pointing out that investing in bonds is in many ways an emotional vehicle for those who have a 10 year plus horizon. And that the difference in earnings between equities and bonds is what that feeling of short-term loss is worth.
 
For the most part, I'm keeping my asset allocation the same. Personally, I don't think it's a good idea to change the portfolio across the various instruments in retirement funds and non-retirement a whole lot, unless it was really lopsided to begin with. I do tweak it here and there, but don't really want to change anything for now. I'll probably buy some more equity stocks if the market goes down further. The big move this year for me is the recharacterization of my IRA -> Roth IRA. As a full time med student, I'm currently in a pretty low tax bracket. So I think it makes sense to retain my asset class and it's allocation, but go ahead and move the retirement instruments around to something more beneficial and take the small tax hit now at my lower tax bracket.
 
the psychological torture of a bear market is too much for 99% of people investing money out there, including me. luckily i've never lived through a bear market per se, but i've taken huge hits to individual positions that have changed my thinking on the subject - i can't imagine my entire portfolio (which is essentially my net worth at this point) taking similar hits.

Watching portions of the portfolio go down is tough to see. Here is my solution that seems to work for me:

1) Allocate funds for living expenses and other things I need
2) Allocate for savings + retirement
3) Anything left over is money I'd probably spend on things I don't need - aka is essentially - play money. It's this money that doesn't hurt (as much) to see it take a hit if the market goes down. Besides, the sweet almost nothing cap gains tax rate for my current tax bracket is too good to pass over.
 
Age 24
AA = 83% stocks, 17% bonds

75% Vanguard Target Retirement 2045
25% Vanguard STAR fund

I'm must say i'm pretty impressed with the target retirement funds that vanguard offers. I thought about doing my own AA, but this just makes it even easier and its pretty close to how i would have invested anyway. I would like to add some REITS in the near future.

Also, isn't it best to contribute to your account throughout the course of the year instead of at one time in a large lump sum? Dollar cost averaging i think is the correct term.
 
All Vanguard Index Funds:

40% Domestic Equity
40% International Equity
10% REITs
10% Short-Term Bonds (no mortgage exposure)

Im investing on a 10+ year horizon, and I think most of the growth in the market is going to take place internationally (Brazil, India, China, Eastern Europe, Asian Tigers) over the next 50 years, which is why I have such high intl exposure.
 
Also, isn't it best to contribute to your account throughout the course of the year instead of at one time in a large lump sum? Dollar cost averaging i think is the correct term.

from what i understand (from reading diehards.org mostly), you come out slightly ahead if you are able to do a lump sump. also makes record keeping a lot easier. also, if you lump sum, you can buy an ETF instead of the open-ended mutual fund, which saves you some on the expense ratio - although you've got to pay a commission to buy etfs (usually).
 
I like fidelity for index funds over vanguard. They do not charge you a fee for ira's under a certain amount and the fees are about the same.

Current allocation:
10% fidelity four in one fund (15 international, 15% bonds 50% S&P 20% DJEMI)
50% Cash
40% individual stocks including approx 5% oil tankers, 15% oil companies and master limited partnerships, 10% REITs, 30% ETFs, 10%banks, 10% consumer staples 10% consumer discret. 10% utilities

I don't think I have an ideal mix right now but I like the companies I own for the long run. I am pretty worried about the next 12 months in the market, so I will probably stay in cash for a while. I think there is some oversold sent. right now and that is driving the volatility, but the fundamentals are not sound and I think the market has to fall further in the next 12 months. I am expecting real estate to fall 15-20% over the next 18-24 months and then stabilize at the historical growth level. If Bear Stearns fails and some of the insolvent banks like WM fail, I think the market will recover sooner than if the fed keeps trying to keep bad banks in business with bad loans and paper.
 
from what i understand (from reading diehards.org mostly), you come out slightly ahead if you are able to do a lump sump. also makes record keeping a lot easier. also, if you lump sum, you can buy an ETF instead of the open-ended mutual fund, which saves you some on the expense ratio - although you've got to pay a commission to buy etfs (usually).
I'm interested in the calculations here. Everything I've read so far has pointed toward DCA since more shares are bought when the market is low than when it is high (for the same contribution amount). The only way I can see lump summing to come out ahead is if it's a LARGE lump sum and the IRA is maxed out as early as possible in the fiscal/calendear/tax/whatever year.
 
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I agree wholeheartedly, Im just pointing out that investing in bonds is in many ways an emotional vehicle for those who have a 10 year plus horizon. And that the difference in earnings between equities and bonds is what that feeling of short-term loss is worth.

That's not true. It isn't called the equity PATIENCE premium. It is called the equity RISK premium. You are paid more for holding stocks over the long term not just because they are more volatile, but because there is a risk they will NOT outperform bonds over the long term. Don't confuse the unlikely and the impossible.
 
Negative (compare total stock market vs total bond market):

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/bestfunds/2008/indexfunds.html


Bonds have their role in investment, especially amongst investors nearing retirement. But they are essentially vehicles for limiting the pain of a bear market. Over the long-run, you are better off in stocks unless the psychological torture of a bear market is too much for you-- then bonds are more than worth it.

Don't get your investment info from money magazine. If you want to know how TSM vs TBM have done, go to Vanguard.com directly. According to this:

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/vanguard/bytype

TSM has a 10 year return of 4.46% and TBM has a 10 year return of 5.78%. Who knows... it is possible this could be similar after 20 years or even 30. That's the risk you're being paid for by holding equities.
 
I'm interested in the calculations here. Everything I've read so far has pointed toward DCA since more shares are bought when the market is low than when it is high (for the same contribution amount). The only way I can see lump summing to come out ahead is if it's a LARGE lump sum and the IRA is maxed out as early as possible in the fiscal/calendear/tax/whatever year.

Lump sum comes out ahead statistically only because the market generally goes up. So if you're holding back your cash when the market is going up, you're not doing as well when the market does go up. DCA is better when the market goes down (1/3 of the time), lump sum is better when the market goes up (2/3 of the time.)
 
Absolutely. I'm a huge fan of DCA and plan on doing it after I've transferred from my CU to Vanguard.

Keep in mind the difference between DCA and periodic investing. Most of us periodically invest because we periodically have money. If I put $4K into my IRA every Jan 1 for 30 years, you might call that DCA, but it isn't. DCA is when I have $100K now and I have to decide whether to invest it all at once or invest it $10K a year for 10 years. If you don't have a lump sum to invest, you can't DCA. You simply get the same advantages by periodically investing. Obviously if you had the $2 Million you're going to make over the next 15 years, you'd be better off investing it now than in 10 years, right?
 
Just an interesting observation, I'm surprised by the lack of commodity exposure for most of those that have replied to this thread.