What percentage of applicants never make it?

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I think most MD schools have a 5-10% accept rate? Not sure about DO.

If you buy MSAR you can look at the stats per year of the schools that you're interested in.

Also, quite a few people apply more than once to strengthen their apps.
 
I think for MD 40% get accepted to at least 1 school. this is for 1 cycle though. i doubt you can find %s of 2 and 3 time applicants and you can't know how many never end up matriculating
 
Never make it you mean never getting accepted to a MD/DO school after x cycle of application?
 
I've finished my freshman year
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Your question is hard to answer since you're combining MD and DO, and seems to include those who will apply multiple cycles. How are we supposed to figure the possibility of people who may quit applying after a couple of failed cycles, but then 10 years later come back and apply? I don't think there are stats for your question.

You've just finished freshman year. A bigger concern for you is how many rising sophomore premeds end up getting into med school. I'd roughly guess maybe 25%.
 
The low end of DO (like brand new schools) is a pretty low bar to set, can't really guess at that. For MD though, I think the vast majority of people never even make it to applying. SDN will make it sound easy to get good grades in science classes and score in the upper quarter on the MCAT, but really "weed out" is real and percentiles are percentiles.
 
38% of people are accepted to MD schools with the average person applying to 14 schools if I recall the MSAR correctly.
 
I can share the PCOM - Philadelphia campus 2016 data with you as an example. 6,676 students applied - and only 413 students were accepted - so the statistics are daunting so slightly over 6% of applicants get in. So obviously applying to any one school is a bad idea. just like with college you can use MSAR - a service akin to Collegeboard to look at the stats and see where you might have a shot to get in based on your grades and scores. Apply based on that with some reaches and safeties. I think 10 is a good number of schools. Don't stress to much yet - do well in your classes but remember to have fun - medicine is a long road but you can do this. But if you don't want to thats okay too.
 
^ So there's no way to know how many of those people made it do DO schools and still became doctors?


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mwsapphire said:
^ So there's no way to know how many of those people made it do DO schools and still became doctors?


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Let's do some rough math:
50,000 applicants.
21,000 admitted (42%) and matriculate to MD schools
29,000 are not admitted to MD school.

How many seats do all the DO schools combined have? Well, the AACOM tells us that there are 27,000 DO students in the US and assuming that DO school takes 4 years, there are 6750 DO students starting each year. Let's also assume that almost all DO applicants also apply to at least one MD school meaning that the pool of total applicants to MD and DO schools combined might be in the neighborhood of 55,000 (making an assumption that for every 10 MD or MD+DO applicants there is 1 DO only applicant).
21,000 MD students plus 6750 DO students = 27,750 total admitted.

27,750/55000 = ~50% of applicants get in somewhere, approximately three-quarters of that group go to MD schools and one-quarter to DO schools
 
gonnif said:
However most schools report that reapplicants have a lower acceptance rate than first time applicants. Some evidence suggests reapplicants have half the acceptance of first time applicants. Taking this all into account, it likely that a total of 45% of those who apply to MD school ultimately succeed.
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Do you think this is due to stigma against reapplicants or because a lot of reapplicants don't take enough time to go improve their application and end up applying with nearly the same application they had before?
 
hebrewBAMmer said:
Do you think this is due to stigma against reapplicants or because a lot of reapplicants don't take enough time to go improve their application and end up applying with nearly the same application they had before?
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The person who reapplies was either a bad applicant the first time around (poor grades/scores and/or poor written application and/or poor interviews) or was a good applicant who made bad choices (applied to too few schools and/or applied too late and/or applied too high or too low). So, when we see this person the second time around, we might see what was bad the first time (grades and scores, or perhaps, lack of experiences) and how the application has been improved since the previous time. Or we might see someone who looks good on paper and who looks like someone who should have been admitted in an earlier cycle. Then the question becomes, why wasn't this applicant scooped up last season? Is there any hope that whatever hurt them previously has been rectified? If you have to choose between someone who looks good on paper and is a reapplicant and someone with a nearly identical application who is a first time applicant, which do you endorse for interview? There can be a bit of bias against the person who is a reapplicant.
 
hebrewBAMmer said:
Do you think this is due to stigma against reapplicants or because a lot of reapplicants don't take enough time to go improve their application and end up applying with nearly the same application they had before?
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Leaving aside the reapplicants that just weren't qualified the first go-round, the problem that I've seen are bad app lists. Most recently, the failed app that I know about, had virtually all high reaches (Harvard, Yale, UChicago, etc) and OOS publics. NO interview invites. The applicant had been given some misguided advice that a 507 MCAT was somehow strong because it was much better than a 500...which they somehow thought was the average successful applicant. Correcting that app list during another cycle can make a diffference, and then the student isn't considered to be a reapplicant at the "better list" during the following app year. I think that now that this applicant has applied to her instate publics (and her state has several), she'll have better luck. She has a 4.0 GPA.
 
PreMedMissteps said:
Leaving aside the reapplicants that just weren't qualified the first go-round, the problem that I've seen are bad app lists. Most recently, the failed app that I know about, had virtually all high reaches (Harvard, Yale, UChicago, etc) and OOS publics. NO interview invites. The applicant had been given some misguided advice that a 507 MCAT was somehow strong because it was much better than a 500...which they somehow thought was the average successful applicant. Correcting that app list during another cycle can make a diffference, and then the student isn't considered to be a reapplicant at the "better list" during the following app year. I think that now that this applicant has applied to her instate publics (and her state has several), she'll have better luck. She has a 4.0 GPA.
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But even if the applicant isn't a reapplicant at her instate publics, it is clear that she had her ducks in a row a year earlier (MCAT taken, etc) and is now taking a gap year. The question still remains, why wasn't this person admitted last year? Did they not apply anywhere last year? Why not? It becomes a bit of a puzzlement.
 
bbbcccppp said:
It's 50-50. Either you get in or you don't.


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It's not a random 50/50. The applicant with a 3.9 GPA, MCAT 517, and otherwise good application has a much higher chance of an acceptance than the applicant with a 3.5 GPA, MCAT 507, and similarly strong app. And an applicant from, say, West Virginia applying instate, has a higher chance than the Californian applying instate (both with similar stats/app).
 
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PreMedMissteps said:
It's not a random 50/50. The applicant with a 3.9 GPA, MCAT 217, and otherwise good application has a much higher chance of an acceptance than the applicant with a 3.5 GPA, MCAT 207, and similarly strong app. And an applicant from, say, West Virginia applying instate, has a higher chance than the Californian applying instate (both with similar stats/app).
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It was a joke.
 
PreMedMissteps said:
It's not a random 50/50. The applicant with a 3.9 GPA, MCAT 217, and otherwise good application has a much higher chance of an acceptance than the applicant with a 3.5 GPA, MCAT 207, and similarly strong app. And an applicant from, say, West Virginia applying instate, has a higher chance than the Californian applying instate (both with similar stats/app).
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I think he was joking 🙂
 
PreMedMissteps said:
Leaving aside the reapplicants that just weren't qualified the first go-round, the problem that I've seen are bad app lists. Most recently, the failed app that I know about, had virtually all high reaches (Harvard, Yale, UChicago, etc) and OOS publics. NO interview invites. The applicant had been given some misguided advice that a 507 MCAT was somehow strong because it was much better than a 500...which they somehow thought was the average successful applicant. Correcting that app list during another cycle can make a diffference, and then the student isn't considered to be a reapplicant at the "better list" during the following app year. I think that now that this applicant has applied to her instate publics (and her state has several), she'll have better luck. She has a 4.0 GPA.
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LizzyM said:
But even if the applicant isn't a reapplicant at her instate publics, it is clear that she had her ducks in a row a year earlier (MCAT taken, etc) and is now taking a gap year. The question still remains, why wasn't this person admitted last year? Did they not apply anywhere last year? Why not? It becomes a bit of a puzzlement.
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If you're asking about the unhooked trad reapplicant in my scenario, her failed cycle (IMHO) was because she applied to high reaches and OOS publics without having the stats that an OOS public or top med would want. Her app was a non-starter from the get-go. If she had included her instate publics last cycle, she'd likely be gearing up for her white coat ceremony in a couple of weeks.

Some applicants just have a wild-hair about their app lists. Dreamy eyes about ivy meds or near-the-beach meds. Some of it may be family influence (applying to the top meds), and some just want to get out of Dodge.

I believe it was on JHU's website that I saw a mention that their premed success rate has been hurt by family pressure (students applying before ready, applying w/o the right stats, applying to the wrong SOMs.)
 
PreMedMissteps said:
It's not a random 50/50. The applicant with a 3.9 GPA, MCAT 217, and otherwise good application has a much higher chance of an acceptance than the applicant with a 3.5 GPA, MCAT 207, and similarly strong app. And an applicant from, say, West Virginia applying instate, has a higher chance than the Californian applying instate (both with similar stats/app).
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I don't see good chances with a 217 or a 207...
 
PreMedMissteps said:
If you're asking about the unhooked trad reapplicant in my scenario, her failed cycle (IMHO) was because she applied to high reaches and OOS publics without having the stats that an OOS public or top med would want. Her app was a non-starter from the get-go. If she had included her instate publics last cycle, she'd likely be gearing up for her white coat ceremony in a couple of weeks.

Some applicants just have a wild-hair about their app lists. Dreamy eyes about ivy meds or near-the-beach meds. Some of it may be family influence (applying to the top meds), and some just want to get out of Dodge.

I believe it was on JHU's website that I saw a mention that their premed success rate has been hurt by family pressure (students applying before ready, applying w/o the right stats, applying to the wrong SOMs.)
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I wholeheartedly agree. I saw this 10 years ago which is why I came up with the LizzyM score to help applicants target their applications in a rational way. If it is done right the first time, an applicant with a reasonable application and a well matched list should have a good chance of being admitted. However, once the applicant has failed once, their application is tarnished. Do it right, do it once.
 
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PreMedMissteps said:
I believe it was on JHU's website that I saw a mention that their premed success rate has been hurt by family pressure (students applying before ready, applying w/o the right stats, applying to the wrong SOMs.)
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Translation: We keep GPAs very low here but our grads often apply anyways because they don't want to do a postbacc repair year
 
PreMedMissteps said:
It's not a random 50/50. The applicant with a 3.9 GPA, MCAT 517, and otherwise good application has a much higher chance of an acceptance than the applicant with a 3.5 GPA, MCAT 507, and similarly strong app. And an applicant from, say, West Virginia applying instate, has a higher chance than the Californian applying instate (both with similar stats/app).
Click to expand...

Dcm is correct on this one. A joke that's not really very punny. Oops there I go again.


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bbbcccppp said:
Dcm is correct on this one. A joke that's not really very punny. Oops there I go again.


Sent from my iPhone using SDN mobile
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😉

But seriously, you'd be surprised how many premeds will say, "but I have less than a 50% chance of getting accepted to a med school," without taking into account their worthy stats.
 
PreMedMissteps said:
😉

But seriously, you'd be surprised how many premeds will say, "but I have less than a 50% chance of getting accepted to a med school," without taking into account their worthy stats.
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Desperately points to AAMC Tables A-23 and A-24, cries out: "But for applicants with your GPA and MCAT..." before finally giving up
 
efle said:
Translation: We keep GPAs very low here but our grads often apply anyways because they don't want to do a postbacc repair year
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How many parents really stop their kids from doing post bacc/gap years though? I think it's more the kid thinking " Nah I'm from Hopkins I'll get in somewhere". I think a lot of pre meds just don't want to wait, and want to jump the gun as soon as possible. Parents tend to do the opposite ( " A year is nothing, it's better for you in the long run , you're young and you don't know how the world works"). That thought stresses me out ( parents pushing kids to apply before ready).
My parents, at least, seem surprisingly okay with my potential choice to take a gap year ( and they're Pakistani so really everything is an upward climb with them, if it's something that people do in the US and not in Pakistan, but that's along and boring explanation).


Nor do many applicants look past their single GPA number
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I wouldn't either if it weren't for SDN letting me know how Adcom's minds work.
 
mwsapphire said:
How many parents really stop their kids from doing post bacc/gap years though? I think it's more the kid thinking " Nah I'm from Hopkins I'll get in somewhere". I think a lot of pre meds just don't want to wait, and want to jump the gun as soon as possible. Parents tend to do the opposite ( " A year is nothing, it's better for you in the long run , you're young and you don't know how the world works"). That thought stresses me out ( parents pushing kids to apply before ready).
My parents, at least, seem surprisingly okay with my potential choice to take a gap year ( and they're Pakistani so really everything is an upward climb with them, if it's something that people do in the US and not in Pakistan, but that's along and boring explanation).
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A lot of parents don't have the laid back mindset about it - I mentioned I would probably have one with my pre med advisor and he said it's usually parents who have an issue with that. Plus, that Hopkins students are perfectly capable of looking at their school's acceptance rate into med school but parents might be more likely to wave it off and assume their student is at the top of the pool.
 
cactusman said:
A lot of parents don't have the laid back mindset about it - I mentioned I would probably have one with my pre med advisor and he said it's usually parents who have an issue with that. Plus, that Hopkins students are perfectly capable of looking at their school's acceptance rate into med school but parents might be more likely to wave it off and assume their student is at the top of the pool.
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That's...really stressful. I was actually thinking that's what my parents would think but they actually didn't, thank god ( b/c I may need one, not sure yet it's too early).
 
mwsapphire said:
How many parents really stop their kids from doing post bacc/gap years though? I think it's more the kid thinking " Nah I'm from Hopkins I'll get in somewhere"
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To me, the words from the JHU website implied that they had some premeds with below-borderline stats whose families wouldn't allow their students to deviate from the premed path, and therefore those students applied due to family pressure (and maybe to finally silence their parents so that they could move onto an appropriate career path.)

Haven't we seen some families that seem to only allow their children to be doctors or engineers?
 
mwsapphire said:
How many parents really stop their kids from doing post bacc/gap years though? I think it's more the kid thinking " Nah I'm from Hopkins I'll get in somewhere". I think a lot of pre meds just don't want to wait, and want to jump the gun as soon as possible. Parents tend to do the opposite ( " A year is nothing, it's better for you in the long run , you're young and you don't know how the world works"). That thought stresses me out ( parents pushing kids to apply before ready).
My parents, at least, seem surprisingly okay with my potential choice to take a gap year ( and they're Pakistani so really everything is an upward climb with them, if it's something that people do in the US and not in Pakistan, but that's along and boring explanation).



I wouldn't either if it weren't for SDN letting me know how Adcom's minds work.
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I knew someone whose parents made them retake MCAT in the top 15% because they wanted their kid to attend a prestigious school. It would not surprise me at all to hear that JHU parents often tell their kids no gap year allowed. To people unfamiliar with how common that is these days it would be like admitting their kid hadn't done well enough. What do they tell their other tiger parent friends about why Johnny is a lab tech right now instead of a medical student? Disgraceful!
 
efle said:
I knew someone whose parents made them retake MCAT in the top 15% because they wanted their kid to attend a prestigious school. It would not surprise me at all to hear that JHU parents often tell their kids no gap year allowed. To people unfamiliar with how common that is these days it would be like admitting their kid hadn't done well enough. What do they tell their other tiger parent friends about why Johnny is a lab tech right now instead of a medical student? Disgraceful!
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Yes, the idea of having a gap year, to some parents, is like having a kid loafing on the couch.

As for retaking a top 15% MCAT, it's even worse when these students are in high school and their parents are pressuring them to retake an ACT 35 or a SAT 1570 (new).

The obsession with top school names must be exhausting.
 
mwsapphire said:
How many parents really stop their kids from doing post bacc/gap years though? I think it's more the kid thinking " Nah I'm from Hopkins I'll get in somewhere". I think a lot of pre meds just don't want to wait, and want to jump the gun as soon as possible. Parents tend to do the opposite ( " A year is nothing, it's better for you in the long run , you're young and you don't know how the world works"). That thought stresses me out ( parents pushing kids to apply before ready).
My parents, at least, seem surprisingly okay with my potential choice to take a gap year ( and they're Pakistani so really everything is an upward climb with them, if it's something that people do in the US and not in Pakistan, but that's along and boring explanation).



I wouldn't either if it weren't for SDN letting me know how Adcom's minds work.
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I'd estimate that 50-60% of pre meds at competitive schools had demanding parents, many of whom are from a cultural or economic background where medicine is especially well regarded. I've also had friends complain about the pressure to apply now. So it's reasonable for me to think that many of those demanding parents are also pretty impatient lol
 
One would not believe the amount of damage well-meaning, but foolish, ignorant and/or impatient parents have done to kid's medical careers.

Tiger parents come in all sizes, shapes colors and cultures.

mwsapphire said:
How many parents really stop their kids from doing post bacc/gap years though? I think it's more the kid thinking " Nah I'm from Hopkins I'll get in somewhere". I think a lot of pre meds just don't want to wait, and want to jump the gun as soon as possible. Parents tend to do the opposite ( " A year is nothing, it's better for you in the long run , you're young and you don't know how the world works"). That thought stresses me out ( parents pushing kids to apply before ready).
My parents, at least, seem surprisingly okay with my potential choice to take a gap year ( and they're Pakistani so really everything is an upward climb with them, if it's something that people do in the US and not in Pakistan, but that's along and boring explanation).

I wouldn't either if it weren't for SDN letting me know how Adcom's minds work.
Click to expand...
 
Goro said:
One would not believe the amount of damage well-meaning, but foolish, ignorant and/or impatient parents have done to kid's medical careers.

Tiger parents come in all sizes, shapes colors and cultures.
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Yes. We have an Italian and an Irish version in our family. 😀

One of the bigger mistakes that I've seen is family members pressuring their premed to go to a high reach school for undergrad, thinking that an impressive name is a free pass to med school (of course, only a top one)

There's also the assumption that going to a private undergrad with a med school means you get to "transfer into" their med school. 😱
 
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altblue said:
I'd estimate that 50-60% of pre meds at competitive schools had demanding parents, many of whom are from a cultural or economic background where medicine is especially well regarded. I've also had friends complain about the pressure to apply now. So it's reasonable for me to think that many of those demanding parents are also pretty impatient lol
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I'm Pakistani. Medicine is very well regarded in the homeland , especially for a young woman. My parents want me to become a doctor and go to the best possible school with the strongest possible app. Ofc some "tiger parents" may be impatient but most of them are about getting the best possible acceptance for their kid and maximizing the chance of them getting into med school , and not necessarily be impatient.
My parents actually both, on two separate occasions, said that I know this process more than them.( I almost cried from relief) They're more concerned with if a gap year looks good on resume, if it's a legitimate thing pre med kids do, it's worth adding an extra year to this already long and ardous process. They know I'm dying to go to med school, so if I'm delaying it it's for a real reason.
edit: It doesn't help that in Pakistan you don't need as many EC's for med school, and people only take gap years if they have an emergency ( like a LOA is here), or if they failed a year. So there, it's kind of a sign of failure but here it's something a responsible kid does.
 
efle said:
I knew someone whose parents made them retake MCAT in the top 15% because they wanted their kid to attend a prestigious school. It would not surprise me at all to hear that JHU parents often tell their kids no gap year allowed. To people unfamiliar with how common that is these days it would be like admitting their kid hadn't done well enough. What do they tell their other tiger parent friends about why Johnny is a lab tech right now instead of a medical student? Disgraceful!
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Actually, I thought my parents would bring this up, in a " what will people say with wasting a year' but surprisingly, they said " we'll just say you're getting work experience ( not that I wanna get to med school)". And trust me, West Asian people gossip constantly and never mind their business or close their big mouths about other parents kids. ( Like something like " Did you know * my mom's name* daughter is sitting at home doing some lame lab tech job! She probably couldn't make it to med school * scoffs* * meanwhile, their own kid is getting a comp sci degree and making a 2.5 GPA and is only in school b/c their being forced by their parents*")
 
mwsapphire said:
I'm Pakistani. Medicine is very well regarded in the homeland , especially for a young woman. My parents want me to become a doctor and go to the best possible school with the strongest possible app. Ofc some "tiger parents" may be impatient but most of them are about getting the best possible acceptance for their kid and maximizing the chance of them getting into med school , and not necessarily be impatient.
My parents actually both, on two separate occasions, said that I know this process more than them.( I almost cried from relief) They're more concerned with if a gap year looks good on resume, if it's a legitimate thing pre med kids do, it's worth adding an extra year to this already long and ardous process. They know I'm dying to go to med school, so if I'm delaying it it's for a real reason.
edit: It doesn't help that in Pakistan you don't need as many EC's for med school, and people only take gap years if they have an emergency ( like a LOA is here), or if they failed a year. So there, it's kind of a sign of failure but here it's something a responsible kid does.
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Lol these discussions, and talking to some of my friends, are always rather surreal for me because my parents don't care if I pursue medicine or not. Like I can't imagine my dad asking about my application.
 
altblue said:
Lol these discussions, and talking to some of my friends, are always rather surreal for me because my parents don't care if I pursue medicine or not. Like I can't imagine my dad asking about my application.
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Are you Asian/Muslim?
Also, @efle , you're in a gap year, right? Did you have to convince your parents it was worth it ( trying to figure out if this sentiment is typical with the usual American family).
 
altblue said:
Lol these discussions, and talking to some of my friends, are always rather surreal for me because my parents don't care if I pursue medicine or not. Like I can't imagine my dad asking about my application.
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QFT, I was shocked when they told me their parents were forcing them to retake a competitive score, my own parents didn't know what the MCAT was when I told them I was studying for it. Makes sense why you hear about some medical students being miserable because it wasn't really their own choice of career.

mwsapphire said:
Are you Asian/Muslim?
Also, @efle , you're in a gap year, right? Did you have to convince your parents it was worth it ( trying to figure out if this sentiment is typical with the usual American family).
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They were surprised because they knew I had good grades and thought that was all that really mattered for admissions, but they didn't express any disapproval or anything like that.
 
efle said:
QFT, I was shocked when they told me their parents were forcing them to retake a competitive score, my own parents didn't know what the MCAT was when I told them I was studying for it. Makes sense why you hear about some medical students being miserable because it wasn't really their own choice of career.


They were surprised because they knew I had good grades and thought that was all that really mattered for admissions, but they didn't express any disapproval or anything like that.
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My mom thinks that, too! ( the bolded) She keeps saying " but what if you get perfect grades/MCAT prep is going well would you still need the gap year"
YES I WOULD OMG YOUR RESUME AND YOUR GRADES ARE TWO SEPERATE THINGS aaaaaaaAAAAAAHHHHHHHhhhhhhh :flame::boom:
And lol your parents didn't know what the MCAT was that's cute hahaa

" You have good numbers that's all you need for a good app"
* A few months ago* " What's the MCAT"
 
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Donna Moss said:
I've also found that south Asian parents/tiger parents are fascinated by Caribbean and its scary.
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Really? As in Caribbean Meds? Why? I find that somewhat surprising since they're not ranked.

I did know a south Asian doctor who was trying to talk his kid into going to med school abroad right out of high school. Thankfully, his kid went the traditional route.
 
Donna Moss said:
As a south Asian, I laughed so hard when I read this because it's so true. Thankfully my parents finally came around to realize I need TWO gap years. I've basically hid the fact that I want to be a doctor from my entire extended family/parents friend circle because the judgement is too much to bare.
I've also found that south Asian parents/tiger parents are fascinated by Caribbean and its scary.
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upload_2017-7-8_17-5-10.png
I really hate being Pakistani sometimes.
 
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