U.S. POPULATION PROJECTIONS
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular][FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular]2010 US population ~310,233,000 *..
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular][FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular]2020 US population ~ 341,387,000*.[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular]2030.[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular]373,504,000.[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular]32%.[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular]2040.[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular]405,655,000. [FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular]44%.[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular]2050.[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular]439,010,000.[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular]55%.0.[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular]10%.[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular]2020.[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular]341,387,000.[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular]21%.[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular]2030.[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular]373,504,000.[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular]32%.[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular]2040.[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular]405,655,000. [FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular]44%.[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular]2050.[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular]439,010,000.[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular]55%.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
The old rule of thumb for optometrist-to-population ratio varies from 1:5,000 to 1:8,000 in urban area to 1:25,000 to 1:40,000 in rural areas. Source: Business Aspect of Optometry, John Classe. 1997
As we can see, based on the projected numbers, there will be roughly 1 OD for every 7,000 patients in the US (IF EVERY SINGLE PERSON GOT AN EYE EXAM). But as I said, this ratio is greatly outdated because it doesn't account for the fact that ODs are much more efficient (thanks to advanced instrumentation and lowering reimbursements) And it doesn't take into account ophthalmologist population. So it's more accurate to simply count ECP (eye care providers) per area and divide by local population.
My area has gone from 30 ODs in 1998 to 50 in 2011. Population has gone from 290,000 to 310 ,000 during this time. We have 20 Ophthalmologists.
Oh yea, for the record (and from the same book I highly recommend), average income for a new grad in 1994 was $47,300. Average school debt was $40,00-$60,000. So it was basically one years salary to pay off your debt.
Nowadays the avg new income is about $75,000 and school debt is $200,000.......so it's 2.5 times as much now. And again, this is still in the 'good ole days'. None of this takes into account 500 additional OD gradutates each year. Which means 10 new additional ODs per state, per year......for ever?? In 5 years, each state will have (at least) 50 additional ODs than they have now (that is plus the roughly 1,100 or 22 per state that currently graduate each year). So now each state will have to absorb 77 newly minted optometrists per every single year! There is, on average, 800 ODs per state currently. So 77 + 77 + 77 + 77 +77 +77 + 77.......see where it's all going. And ODs typically work until they are 95 years old and propped up beside the phoropter with a cane.
Where will they all go? THAT is the question. There simply isn't enough Walmarts currently. But maybe they are planning on building 10 news one in each state every year. That's a possiblity.😛