Will it last?

[busupshot83]

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I was reading the government's online-BLS reports for 2003, and it stated that the demand for dentists are predicted to grow slower than the average (increase 3 to 9 percent):

From the government's 2003 Occupational Outlook

Employment of dentists is expected to grow more slowly than the average for all occupations through 2010. Although employment growth will provide some job opportunities, most jobs will result from the need to replace the large number of dentists projected to retire. Job prospects should be good if the number of dental school graduates does not grow significantly, thus keeping the supply of newly qualified dentists near current levels.

... However, the employment of dentists is not expected to grow as rapidly as the demand for dental services. As their practices expand, dentists are likely to hire more dental hygienists and dental assistants to handle routine services.

My question is: because the prospects for dentists currently look good, were these reports incorrect? Or is there truth in these reports? Will the golden-era of dentistry end in the near future?

I understand that these are just predictions, and they can be totally wrong. For instance, the government predicted a surplus of physicians by 2000, only to realize that we will have a shortage by 2020. Ok, im done.

Pce,

Bus.

 

[busupshot83]

Here's a sample of what members have said about the outlook of dentistry so far (just to start things off):


Jbiter's statement:

Originally posted by jbiter
I would highly recommend you looking into dentistry. It is a good time, there will be a big need for new dentists in the near future.

Poetikfuzion's statement:

Originally posted by poetikfuzion
Yo the job market is better than ever for dentists and will only continue to increase atleast within the next 20 years. The babyboomers are decaying more rapidly than ever...and you know that means...money in our pockets 🙂 While specialization may make you more, general dentistry allows a more broad spectrum to work with, and flexibility at times. All in all, general dentistry is a field expected to continue booming, much faster than many other medical fields, and is in an increasingly high demand.

Supernumerary's statement:

Originally posted by Supernumerary

"I hate to be the pessimist on this board, but the all-knowing feds predict that the demand for dentists is expected to grow more slowly than other fields. The need for physicians, however, is expected to skyrocket.

This doesn't mean that dentistry is a poor choice; dentistry is a field with tons of potential even in a bad economy. I just didn't want to let that misinformation stand there and people take it as fact. I'm guessing that was just Poetikfuzion's surmise. (no offense, big P )

One thing that I think could really affect the demand for dentists in the future is a solidification of the link between periodontal disease and heart disease. If heart disease (one of the major U.S. killers) proves to be preventable in part through increased periodontal maintenace we stand to be busier than we could ever hope for. Perios are gonna be sitting pretty if the research pans out."

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"One thing that I think could affect dentistry negatively is fewer dentists retiriing. Everyone has been banking on the boomers starting to retire in droves, but many have lost a good deal of their retirement plans in the market downturn of the last few years. Some just can't afford to retire the way they had planned.

Add to this the fact that the boomers are expected to live longer and healthier than any generation yet. They may just decide to keep practicing another decade or so beyond the magical boundary of 62. The market could easily become oversaturated for a time.

Just a possibility.

Ehop24's statement:

Originally posted by ehop24
the changing demographics of dentistry

(Click link above)
you may have to register to see the article...fear not, it's free.

this article is from feb 2003 dental economics. not all of it is pertinent to this thread, but:

"The ADA's recent report, "The Future of Dentistry," asserts that the United States population is outdistancing the number of dentists that serve it. The number of dentists per 100,000 persons declined from 60 to 59 between 1995 and 2000, and is expected to decline more dramatically ? from 59 percent to 54 percent between 2000 and 2020. This decline could result in a shortfall of 16,046 dentists by 2020"

math time: year 2000, each dentist theortically has 1695 patients (59 dentists per 100,000). year 2020, after 59% decline in dentists per capita, leaves 4166 patients per dentist.

i didnt make this up, the ADA did. and they spent alot of money doing it.

i too have read that dentistry is only expected to grow at a moderate pace. those occupational outlook ratings were not done by the ADA. I just feel more confident trusting our governing body with a question about the future of the career. who knows dentistry better?

i've heard people say "don't go into dentistry, there are already too many dentists." guess what, too many people are not getting the care they need because there arent enough of us to go around. and it's only getting worse. thats an occupational outlook.

FMLizard's statement:

Originally posted by FMLizard
Yeah...go read what they said about computer programmers and engineers, and look where they are now and where they are headed (India).

Take the BLS with a grain of salt. If you look back at their projections for the 90s, you will see that they were way off.

Dentistry is growing slowly, but this tends to happen when more leave than enter. The ratio of demand to dentist supply is stable or growing, to be sure. Dentistry isn't like IT where anyone can go take a programming class at the community college and flood into the job market. It is a major career choice that the flow into is highly regulated.

I think this is an extremely important and interesting issue that will affect everyone related to the field.

Pce,

Bus.

 

[LestatZinnie]

The thing is no-one can predict the future. Just a mere 2-3 years ago, it was very competitive to get into computer science programs because the industry can't hire enough programmers- yet today a good number of those graduates are now unemployed. How about pharmacy? When I entered university 4 years ago it wasn't a hot field at all, but in just a few years it's become very lucrative. The same thing can be said about law, MBA, etc. Even medicine's golden days are gone with the advent of HMO's, etc. So, how long will dentistry's day in the sun last? No one will know. However I'm confident that even if I don't strike it rich, I can still make a comfortable living doing something I love.

 

[aphistis]

Don't forget to put the BLS information in its proper context. BLS deals with the labor market of the entire United States, meaning it predicts for massive labor fields down to the smallest. When it says "slower than average growth," I think the criterion it uses is "less than 10% job growth." Depending who you ask, dentists hold roughly 150,000 jobs; so long as dentists continue to retire at nearly twice the rate they're being replaced, the job market for new dentists would remain exceptional even if the number of available jobs *shrank* substantially. We should be good to go for quite some time.

 

[busupshot83]

Originally posted by aphistis
Don't forget to put the BLS information in its proper context. BLS deals with the labor market of the entire United States, meaning it predicts for massive labor fields down to the smallest. When it says "slower than average growth," I think the criterion it uses is "less than 10% job growth." Depending who you ask, dentists hold roughly 150,000 jobs; so long as dentists continue to retire at nearly twice the rate they're being replaced, the job market for new dentists would remain exceptional even if the number of available jobs *shrank* substantially. We should be good to go for quite some time.

good points aphi

 

[ItsGavinC]

Bill's post, as usual, was right on the money. "Slower than average growth" must be taken in the appropriate context.

Further, "slower than average growth" does NOT equate to lesser earnings. In fact, many would argue that it equates to GREATER earnings.

Also, with some professions, "slower than average growth" would be a symbolic nail the coffin. Dentistry, however, isn't a profession where we live and die by hiring or job positions, so it doesn't mean a whole lot.

 

[scandalouslj]

Also if you look it says that ned for dental services will increase, due to the baby boomers, and that more Dental assiantants hygenists will be hired, no one knows if that will happen becuase it really depends on the scope of services needed by the baby boomers. Even if hiring might not gorw, open your own practice up and take adavantage of the growing need for servies by hiring your own hygenists!