Options and real estate wedlock - a beginner level trade on a real estate backed asset

[cyanide12345678]

I fully expect this to break through to the downside once it crosses 4000, with maybe a new local bottom around the pre-COVID highs (3200-3300).

How do I know? Because I've been aggressively investing in broad market ETFs that are overweight big tech (VOO etc.) over the last 3 years, and the best way to make money in the stock market (based on my entire history of investing) is it do the exact opposite of what I do.

If we get to pre-covid high then I’m going all in with every penny of liquidity i have.

Probably will be a once in a decade buying opportunity if we get there.

I’m personally hoping/expecting a double bottom around 3600. The economy is just too damn strong for things to go completely crazy to pre pandemic levels, but who knows, crashes aren’t rational.

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[HemorrhagicShock]

For the reasons above I've been stacking cash and highly liquid cash equivalents and it's become a greater part of my portfolio allocation (almost 20% now)

 

[cyanide12345678]

For the reasons above I've been stacking cash and highly liquid cash equivalents and it's become a greater part of my portfolio allocation (almost 20% now)

And the best part is that even cash is giving a decent return that it’s not the worst choice now

 

[HemorrhagicShock]

Absolutely

VMFXX, T-bills and ladders, various sweep/depository accounts. Where are you parking your cash stuff? The aforementioned are what I'm currently doing.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Absolutely

VMFXX, T-bills and ladders, various sweep/depository accounts. Where are you parking your cash stuff? The aforementioned are what I'm currently doing.

Vusxx. And some in savings account. Sitting on an extra 40k in cash on top of my usual 15-20k of usual cash.

I think my current portfolio is pretty safe though, but im ready for Spx to go to 3600. There should definitely be some support at that level.

I’m also mostly not in US markets since my largest holding is ewz which is very cheaply valued compared to sp500

 

[cyanide12345678]

Great 7 days of November.

Clawing back my lost gains.

Ewz all the way.

 

[SeekerOfTheTree]

Hey I hope they don't move this tread because it is about investing. I know we talk about starting OF on here to make some extra cash too. Has anyone gotten into farmland or realestate for investing? I am thinking of dabbling in this a litte. Already have enough with the markets going on and want to get into this a little bit. Not sure if it is a good investment (40 acre farmland) or a hastle (renters). Appreciate any input from those wiser than me.

 

[thegenius]

There was just a very long thread about investing...probably several posts, in the past few months on this topic.

 

[cyanide12345678]

I’m in 20 syndications and get about 13-15 rental checks.

Im probably going to start buying my own real estate as well rather than passive syndications in 2024 because my short term capital gains are killing me and the BRRRR strategy might get me a way to offset my short term capital gains - i have 194k of short term cap gains this year from my options translating into 70k ish of taxes that i haven’t paid a penny of.

 

[cyanide12345678]

I also have my eye on my 21st syndication which is a 100m dollar portfolio of 25+ industrial properties, 94 percent of those are currently leased to large credit tenants (think home depot etc). The portfolio has a going in cap rate of 7.5 and fixed debt at 3.25 percent for another 2.5 yrs. The sponsor is solid - hempel

Probably throwing in some 50k in that.

Waiting for more details though.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Fyi - acretrader.com lets you invest in farmland passively as well. Syndications are great if you’re lazy and want massive diversification.

My portfolio is probably across 50+ assets now, many states, many cities. It’s something i personally could never have created

 

[suckstobeme]

I’m in 20 syndications and get about 13-15 rental checks.

Im probably going to start buying my own real estate as well rather than passive syndications in 2024 because my short term capital gains are killing me and the BRRRR strategy might get me a way to offset my short term capital gains - i have 194k of short term cap gains this year from my options translating into 70k ish of taxes that i haven’t paid a penny of.

Who do you use for syndications? Is it like a Crowd funding thing or something else? I've wanted to get into it but I've heard of some turbulence at CrowdStreet. I've browsed some other non crowd sites but they seem a little opaque.

Also any advice regarding your process for vetting deals/companies/sponsors?

 

[BoardingDoc]

Who do you use for syndications? Is it like a Crowd funding thing or something else? I've wanted to get into it but I've heard of some turbulence at CrowdStreet. I've browsed some other non crowd sites but they seem a little opaque.

Also any advice regarding your process for vetting deals/companies/sponsors?

This question (and the original one for that matter) has already been discussed in great detail very recently. Merging this with the other relevant thread as it would behoove all these new question askers to read through what's already been written first.

 

[thegenius]

Given the dovish JPOW FOMC yesterday, and the ~100bps rate cuts estimated by the fed (note NOT THE MARKET), this might be a better time to go long, or short put, MPW. Their ability to refinance their debt in the future should get easier. Any new news on MPW?

I'd be more willing to write $5 puts now than I was 4 months ago. Or just flat out buy the stock. What do you think @cyanide12345678 ?

 

[cyanide12345678]

Given the dovish JPOW FOMC yesterday, and the ~100bps rate cuts estimated by the fed (note NOT THE MARKET), this might be a better time to go long, or short put, MPW. Their ability to refinance their debt in the future should get easier. Any new news on MPW?

I'd be more willing to write $5 puts now than I was 4 months ago. Or just flat out buy the stock. What do you think @cyanide12345678 ?

I actually went back into mpw today given the change in momentum and sold $5 strike puts.

Keeping very small size with 50 contracts this time with real intention of actually taking shares if price goes below $5.

So yeah….i already made the play today that you suggest.

My other large single stock holding is $5 strike puts for SAVE. They have a merger decision in court that will be announced end of December or early January. I got $50 premium for $5 strike which is 70 percent below todays closing cost. 11 ish percent for 2 months (feb expiration) - expect a violent move depending on court decision

 

[cyanide12345678]

I’m just glad my post eventually aged well 😂

 

[thegenius]

I actually went back into mpw today given the change in momentum and sold $5 strike puts.

Keeping very small size with 50 contracts this time with real intention of actually taking shares if price goes below $5.

So yeah….i already made the play today that you suggest.

My other large single stock holding is $5 strike puts for SAVE. They have a merger decision in court that will be announced end of December or early January. I got $50 premium for $5 strike which is 70 percent below todays closing cost. 11 ish percent for 2 months (feb expiration) - expect a violent move depending on court decision

Jan expiration for the MPW short puts?

 

[cyanide12345678]

Jan expiration for the MPW short puts?

Feb. 60-something days to expiration.

 

[thegenius]

Feb. 60-something days to expiration.

I put a limit order today to sell same strike at 0.55

 

[thegenius]

I’m just glad my post eventually aged well 😂

Yea selling puts on MPW wasn't a "bad" idea..just I felt your timing was off. But I think now MPW probably bottomed near 4-5. Their ability to refi debt will only get better, at least, for the next year maybe more.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Yea selling puts on MPW wasn't a "bad" idea..just I felt your timing was off. But I think now MPW probably bottomed near 4-5. Their ability to refi debt will only get better, at least, for the next year maybe more.

Yeah I’m not that great of a chart guy. I often catch falling knives and charts look terrible, but I’ve lived through a few bottoms now.

I increased my position size today.

 

[thegenius]

Yeah I’m not that great of a chart guy. I often catch falling knives and charts look terrible, but I’ve lived through a few bottoms now.

I increased my position size today.

Yea good times. Looks like my limit price hit today on the pullback on MPW. I'm in for 50 puts, @0.55 expiring Feb.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Yea good times. Looks like my limit price hit today on the pullback on MPW. I'm in for 50 puts, @0.55 expiring Feb.

I chickened out of $5 strike and went bigger on $4 strike for feb.

Ended up with 180 contracts for $4 feb strike. Averaged $22 premium per contract. Got about 4k premium. I don’t think it’s hitting 4.

I’m trying to be less greedy. Naked puts still mean $22/238 = 9.6 percent cash on cash return in 63 days.

I’m trying to decrease position size for SAVE to 300 contracts but the bid ask spreads have been killing me. Given the price action it has had over the last 1 week, since I’ve held the position for about a week, the premium should have been so much lower, but any time im closing out the position, I’m literally moving the market because of lower liquidity.

Current holdings are attached: 40k premium in 2 months. About 5.5 percent return in 2 months which isn’t terrible.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Yea good times. Looks like my limit price hit today on the pullback on MPW. I'm in for 50 puts, @0.55 expiring Feb.

The balance sheet for SAVE looks terrible but jblu is buying it for 3.8B and a 33/share price.

The market basically thinks the deal is falling through hence share price is at $15.3 rather than somewhere near high 20s.

It’s a freedom loving 83 year old Ronald Reagan appointed judge making the decision. Jblu argument is that it will still be smaller than the big 4, it will increase competition for the long term by becoming a viable challenger to the big 4, even though price will increase, but jblu will offer a higher value product. And the fact that spirit has struggled post pandemic financially and has several quarters of losses adds to the need for a merger - its harder for the DOJ to argue that consumer prices will increase and competition will decrease if spirit was taken over if there’s a real possibility that spirit could go under without a merger (or likely has to increase prices anyway).

So yeah…. Breakeven is $4.5. Current price $15.3. 70 percent downside protection in case merger falls through. I’ve received $50 premium per contract on average. 11 percent cash on cash return with no leverage and 70 percent downside protection…

Thoughts?

 

[thegenius]

The balance sheet for SAVE looks terrible but jblu is buying it for 3.8B and a 33/share price.

The market basically thinks the deal is falling through hence share price is at $15.3 rather than somewhere near high 20s.

It’s a freedom loving 83 year old Ronald Reagan appointed judge making the decision. Jblu argument is that it will still be smaller than the big 4, it will increase competition for the long term by becoming a viable challenger to the big 4, even though price will increase, but jblu will offer a higher value product. And the fact that spirit has struggled post pandemic financially and has several quarters of losses adds to the need for a merger - its harder for the DOJ to argue that consumer prices will increase and competition will decrease if spirit was taken over if there’s a real possibility that spirit could go under without a merger (or likely has to increase prices anyway).

So yeah…. Breakeven is $4.5. Current price $15.3. 70 percent downside protection in case merger falls through. I’ve received $50 premium per contract on average. 11 percent cash on cash return with no leverage and 70 percent downside protection…

Thoughts?

I'll indicate to you how I feel as I sold a few of the Feb 7.5p for 1.26. SAVE is at an all time low. This one is more of a gamble. I wish I knew when the announcement is coming. Any idea when it will?

 

[thegenius]

I'll indicate to you how I feel as I sold a few of the Feb 7.5p for 1.26. SAVE is at an all time low. This one is more of a gamble. I wish I knew when the announcement is coming. Any idea when it will?

I would much rather own MPW than SAVE. Although my friend who invests who I respect said he would buy SAVE hand over fist if it got to 5. You would think that the low cost carriers will excel in a high inflationary environment, no?

 

[thegenius]

If you feel that the decision will come after Jan 19, perhaps the better trade is to just buy some calls and not risk holding onto a company losing a lot of money. You can do this trade:

Diagonal Call Spread | OptionStrat Options Profit Calculator

Calculate potential profit, max loss, chance of profit, and more for diagonal call spread options and over 50 more strategies.

optionstrat.com

Provided the announcement comes after Jan 19, you end up getting a Jun 20C for 0.29, instead of it's ASK of 3.45. Moreover the IV on the Jan short call is 200%, and the long call is 100%. So you get leverage/advantage with that. And...if SAVE runs up to 20-25 which by Jan 19 which would be 60% increase in SPOT, you still make money on the trade (can just close it then). It would have to explode to 30 prior to Jan 19 for you to lose money...and that's not going to happen unless news is leaked that the merger will go through. And can do other fun stuff like sell an even shorter dated call, to pay for that long. And lastly if both options are OTM at Jan 19, you lose 0.29 per spread. Lastly, obviously..if you hit this and SAVE goes to $33 after announcement, you'll make 13 on the call that you paid 0.29. That's a 4,382% gain.

I think there is nothing wrong with selling a 5 put. You are probably on margin, so you are putting aside how much? like 10-15% of the notional $500? SO "more or less" a guaranteed 11% profit vs a little bit of a gamble.

Could also buy the 20C expiring in Mar and the spread can be sold for a credit of 0.01! It is a credit spread so you'll have to put aside margin or cash of $250 per contract.

So it's really when it's going to announce.

 

[cyanide12345678]

If you feel that the decision will come after Jan 19, perhaps the better trade is to just buy some calls and not risk holding onto a company losing a lot of money. You can do this trade:

Diagonal Call Spread | OptionStrat Options Profit Calculator

Calculate potential profit, max loss, chance of profit, and more for diagonal call spread options and over 50 more strategies.

optionstrat.com

Provided the announcement comes after Jan 19, you end up getting a Jun 20C for 0.29, instead of it's ASK of 3.45. Moreover the IV on the Jan short call is 200%, and the long call is 100%. So you get leverage/advantage with that. And...if SAVE runs up to 20-25 which by Jan 19 which would be 60% increase in SPOT, you still make money on the trade (can just close it then). It would have to explode to 30 prior to Jan 19 for you to lose money...and that's not going to happen unless news is leaked that the merger will go through. And can do other fun stuff like sell an even shorter dated call, to pay for that long. And lastly if both options are OTM at Jan 19, you lose 0.29 per spread. Lastly, obviously..if you hit this and SAVE goes to $33 after announcement, you'll make 13 on the call that you paid 0.29. That's a 4,382% gain.

I think there is nothing wrong with selling a 5 put. You are probably on margin, so you are putting aside how much? like 10-15% of the notional $500? SO "more or less" a guaranteed 11% profit vs a little bit of a gamble.

Could also buy the 20C expiring in Mar and the spread can be sold for a credit of 0.01! It is a credit spread so you'll have to put aside margin or cash of $250 per contract.

So it's really when it's going to announce.

Beginning of January vs right around the end of the year.

The judge himself had once stated that he was going to announce by year end, but the entire trial got delayed by 2 weeks - so probably within the first 2 weeks of January.

 

[thegenius]

Beginning of January vs right around the end of the year.

The judge himself had once stated that he was going to announce by year end, but the entire trial got delayed by 2 weeks - so probably within the first 2 weeks of January.

Yea so Jan 19 ain't good. I was noticing that IV doubles in early Jan. Option traders are stupid! LOL

 

[cyanide12345678]

If you feel that the decision will come after Jan 19, perhaps the better trade is to just buy some calls and not risk holding onto a company losing a lot of money. You can do this trade:

Diagonal Call Spread | OptionStrat Options Profit Calculator

Calculate potential profit, max loss, chance of profit, and more for diagonal call spread options and over 50 more strategies.

optionstrat.com

Provided the announcement comes after Jan 19, you end up getting a Jun 20C for 0.29, instead of it's ASK of 3.45. Moreover the IV on the Jan short call is 200%, and the long call is 100%. So you get leverage/advantage with that. And...if SAVE runs up to 20-25 which by Jan 19 which would be 60% increase in SPOT, you still make money on the trade (can just close it then). It would have to explode to 30 prior to Jan 19 for you to lose money...and that's not going to happen unless news is leaked that the merger will go through. And can do other fun stuff like sell an even shorter dated call, to pay for that long. And lastly if both options are OTM at Jan 19, you lose 0.29 per spread. Lastly, obviously..if you hit this and SAVE goes to $33 after announcement, you'll make 13 on the call that you paid 0.29. That's a 4,382% gain.

I think there is nothing wrong with selling a 5 put. You are probably on margin, so you are putting aside how much? like 10-15% of the notional $500? SO "more or less" a guaranteed 11% profit vs a little bit of a gamble.

Could also buy the 20C expiring in Mar and the spread can be sold for a credit of 0.01! It is a credit spread so you'll have to put aside margin or cash of $250 per contract.

So it's really when it's going to announce.

I know a call can make some big money. The problem is, it truly is all or nothing. A $5 put is salvageable - like your friend said, they would be buying hand over first at $5. It’s eventually something that can be saved granted company doesn’t go bankrupt - given the company had 2 offers , one from jetblue and the other from frontier, i think there’s still intrinsic value in the business, it’s assets, and all the gates they have in airports. Jetblue executives probably aren’t idiots when they offered 3.8B last year. A $5 price is a market cap of 550M….

And here’s the deal, even if the judge approved, it’s not going to $33, the shareholders have gotten $2.5 per share already and have been getting $0.1 per month from jet blue, that amount will be subtracted from the final acquisition price. So you’re looking at 30 final price. And since even with the judgement, there’s going to be some lingering doubt that jblue might walk away or renegotiate given material decline in q3 earnings and 2024 guidance. So…. Maybe 25-28 is what you’re looking at if judge approves.

My biggest problem with buying calls is i hate the possibility of losing 100%. It makes it really really hard to have a very large trade. And if you don’t do a very large trade, usually you’re not going to get a huge meaningful return. Plus i hate the idea of going against theta.

 

[cyanide12345678]

I would much rather own MPW than SAVE. Although my friend who invests who I respect said he would buy SAVE hand over fist if it got to 5. You would think that the low cost carriers will excel in a high inflationary environment, no?

A lot of travel dollars have gone to international destinations this year, as the world opened up completely. The bigger airlines with international routes benefited. But domestic travel actually lagged and spirit found itself discounting fares more than usual because of low domestic travel demand. Happened industry wide - see domestic airlines stocks, especially the discount ones - jblue, frontier, they are down some 60 70 percent.

Plus spirit has a lot of jets with a specific pratt and Whitney engine that is being recalled - a large part of their fleet is being grounded until pratt and Whitney does fixes - they are going to have to do a cash settlement with spirit though, not just them, all airlines actually lol. They’ve already done one. The amount of recovery for losses and when that happens is an unknown

 

[Groove]

MPW chart still looks like poo. Lots of resistance at 5.50, managed to break through with lots of volume on Thursday and then got rammed back down Fri with heavy volume. On daily, it does have a green kumo twist and the fact that it broke a quadruple top on Thursday, might be bullish. It's still in a downtrend on daily and weekly. It's trading within a very defined channel on the weekly and seems to be nearish the bottom of the channel which makes me believe it will trend up slightly over the next few weeks to the top of the channel before it heads down some more. Interestingly, the top of the channel is around 6.10 in early Feb '24 so it might actually trend up unless the trend changes. Def still very much in an overall downtrend looking at chart. I'd hate to be long on that one past Feb. That being said, I know nothing about the stock/business. As for sector... XLRE bullish on daily, SMA 50 about to cross 200. Just broke both cloud and channel on weekly which is bullish. Not quite out of the woods yet on weekly.

ARKK looks bullish on daily/weekly. Golden cross on Weekly. Bullish cloud structure. I might buy some of this one if I can find a good entry.

SAVE is bearish on weekly, not a convincing change of trend on daily though it has broken the cloud and has a green kumo twist which is momentarily bullish and could signify a trend change. Trading within weekly channel and near the top of that channel making me feel like it will pull back some more in the next few weeks. SMA still bearish. XTN sector bullish on weekly/daily. You guys have big "cahoonas" trading this during all this merger mess. I'd get a stress ulcer.

 

[thegenius]

And here’s the deal, even if the judge approved, it’s not going to $33, the shareholders have gotten $2.5 per share already and have been getting $0.1 per month from jet blue, that amount will be subtracted from the final acquisition price. So you’re looking at 30 final price. And since even with the judgement, there’s going to be some lingering doubt that jblue might walk away or renegotiate given material decline in q3 earnings and 2024 guidance. So…. Maybe 25-28 is what you’re looking at if judge approves.

Yes the crediting the dividends already paid changes the math of this trade.

 

[thegenius]

SAVE is bearish on weekly, not a convincing change of trend on daily though it has broken the cloud and has a green kumo twist which is momentarily bullish and could signify a trend change. Trading within weekly channel and near the top of that channel making me feel like it will pull back some more in the next few weeks. SMA still bearish. XTN sector bullish on weekly/daily. You guys have big "cahoonas" trading this during all this merger mess. I'd get a stress ulcer.

Not sure the technicals matter right now for SAVE because it's either going to 8 or to 25 depending on the merger results in the next few weeks. In that sense...it's more like a biotech stock. The IV in those ranges is 150-200%

 

[cyanide12345678]

Not sure the technicals matter right now for SAVE because it's either going to 8 or to 25 depending on the merger results in the next few weeks. In that sense...it's more like a biotech stock. The IV in those ranges is 150-200%

Exactly. And that’s what I’m betting- if it drops 50 percent, it hopefully won’t go as low as $5 and I’ll walk away with 10 percent return in 2 months.

 

[Splenda88]

@cyanide12345678

What do you think of PLTR?

 

[cyanide12345678]

@cyanide12345678

What do you think of PLTR?

No real idea about palantir. All i know is that it’s more or less a defense stock that used to be the big hype 1 year ago and people were going crazy after it. I like companies like pypl that have been beaten down over hyped up companies with little cash flow.

Just googled ptlr - man…. Barely 50M in earnings in the last 4 quarters and barely 2B in revenue and still a 34B market cap. Yup still hyped up 😂

I guess it’s for the growth investor mindset, i don’t know how to value these barely profitable growth companies, i have a preference for value and cash flow companies personally.

 

[Groove]

PLTR looks good on weekly but is clearly ranging on the daily. I think it's a solid company and all the DOD contracts are good optics and I traded it more near the end of 2022 when it had more momentum. It's clearly overvalued with a PE 78 and sector median of 21. Definitely has lost momentum. It's oversold at the moment according to RSI but I wouldn't personally touch it because I can't find any reliable stop loss points. On weekly, you'd have to lose almost 17% to reach a stop and well over 10% on the daily. That's just too much risk for me.

What you guys doing on MPW? It looks like it tanked last Fri on heavy volume. SAVE looks good though on Daily. Has tested support on Sept 19th and yesterday with recovery. It bounced and reversed off the top of the channel on Weekly though. When will they be announcing more merger info?

Meanwhile, I've been waiting months (ok maybe weeks) for an entry for some ANF and finally got an alert other day and bought some. Up over 6% already. Reading Stocktwits makes it seem that everyone and their grandmother is shorting it and short interest is def up over last 3 months. I hope it doesn't reverse. Morningstar has a FVE of 103.75.

 

[cyanide12345678]

PLTR looks good on weekly but is clearly ranging on the daily. I think it's a solid company and all the DOD contracts are good optics and I traded it more near the end of 2022 when it had more momentum. It's clearly overvalued with a PE 78 and sector median of 21. Definitely has lost momentum. It's oversold at the moment according to RSI but I wouldn't personally touch it because I can't find any reliable stop loss points. On weekly, you'd have to lose almost 17% to reach a stop and well over 10% on the daily. That's just too much risk for me.

What you guys doing on MPW? It looks like it tanked last Fri on heavy volume. SAVE looks good though on Daily. Has tested support on Sept 19th and yesterday with recovery. It bounced and reversed off the top of the channel on Weekly though. When will they be announcing more merger info?

It really is up to whenever the judge has made a decision regarding save. I’ve cashed out a lot of my SAVE profits - started with 600 $5 contracts with average $50 premium. Closed a majority of the position, holding ‘only’ 175 contracts. Closed around $31/contract. Not bad for a 3 week hold.

In fact, a lot of my SAVE positions were closed to open buying power this Friday when MPW dropped 30 percent.

Had a small mpw position prior to Friday. Sold 650 contracts $3 strike, received $41 per contract in premium. Received 27k premium. Break even point is $2.59 per share essentially. March expiration.

Naked position, which required 135k of buying power. So $27k/135k = 20% return in 70 ish days if things go well.

Break even point is below the mother of all support levels - 2009 bottom.

I’ve looked at their 400+ buildings portfolio multiple times - my break even price point values their real estate around 12B. Yeah…their real estate is worth far more than that.

Edit: Adding current holdings screenshot. If things go well - account should go up $46600 in 65 days. YTD 5K negative though due to arkk and the loss from my ‘small’ mpw position when it dropped 30 percent. So hopefully I’m net ytd positive 41k by March 16. Just playing the waiting game now and letting theta decay.

 

[thegenius]

PLTR looks good on weekly but is clearly ranging on the daily. I think it's a solid company and all the DOD contracts are good optics and I traded it more near the end of 2022 when it had more momentum. It's clearly overvalued with a PE 78 and sector median of 21. Definitely has lost momentum. It's oversold at the moment according to RSI but I wouldn't personally touch it because I can't find any reliable stop loss points. On weekly, you'd have to lose almost 17% to reach a stop and well over 10% on the daily. That's just too much risk for me.

What you guys doing on MPW? It looks like it tanked last Fri on heavy volume. SAVE looks good though on Daily. Has tested support on Sept 19th and yesterday with recovery. It bounced and reversed off the top of the channel on Weekly though. When will they be announcing more merger info?

Meanwhile, I've been waiting months (ok maybe weeks) for an entry for some ANF and finally got an alert other day and bought some. Up over 6% already. Reading Stocktwits makes it seem that everyone and their grandmother is shorting it and short interest is def up over last 3 months. I hope it doesn't reverse. Morningstar has a FVE of 103.75.

I got out of MPW for a loss. It tanked huge from 5 to 3.5. I held onto it in my kids IRA though where they own like 100 shares each. but as a trade I got out of it. I had written a Feb 5P for 0.5...and who knows maybe by then it would go back up on better news. but the article I wrote said "MPW taking a writedown and there might be more bad news on the horizon" lol

I'm in SAVE, I wrote a Feb 7.5p

 

[cyanide12345678]

I got out of MPW for a loss. It tanked huge from 5 to 3.5. I held onto it in my kids IRA though where they own like 100 shares each. but as a trade I got out of it. I had written a Feb 5P for 0.5...and who knows maybe by then it would go back up on better news. but the article I wrote said "MPW taking a writedown and there might be more bad news on the horizon" lol

I'm in SAVE, I wrote a Feb 7.5p

Every part of me wanted to fold. But the really big drop days are when the spike in premium happens are when volatility spike and gamma spikes so premiums shoot up. On paper the big hit days are the worst days to fold so i slowly mustered the courage to double down - Rolled from 185 $4 feb contracts to 650 $3 strike contracts. I love naked puts and their flexibility.

I mean…. Even if you assume steward pays $0 and that 20 percent of their real estate portfolio which steward occupies is worth $0 and mpw gets $0 if steward goes bankrupt (which is historically untrue in all previous tenant bankruptcies they’ve faced in their 20+ year history) AND they are completely unable to find alternative hospital operators - even then their portfolio should be around 14-15B in worth - minus 10.5B debt = 4 ish B enterprise book value. Trading at a 2.1B book value.

So there’s a floor somewhere…. Maybe 2009 low? It’s very very nearby. Stocktwits has people going in a frenzy and calling it a lifetime opportunity.

 

[RustedFox]

Every part of me wanted to fold. But the really big drop days are when the spike in premium happens are when volatility spike and gamma spikes so premiums shoot up. On paper the big hit days are the worst days to fold so i slowly mustered the courage to double down - Rolled from 185 $4 feb contracts to 650 $3 strike contracts. I love naked puts and their flexibility.

I mean…. Even if you assume steward pays $0 and that 20 percent of their real estate portfolio which steward occupies is worth $0 and mpw gets $0 if steward goes bankrupt (which is historically untrue in all previous tenant bankruptcies they’ve faced in their 20+ year history) AND they are completely unable to find alternative hospital operators - even then their portfolio should be around 14-15B in worth - minus 10.5B debt = 4 ish B enterprise book value. Trading at a 2.1B book value.

So there’s a floor somewhere…. Maybe 2009 low? It’s very very nearby. Stocktwits has people going in a frenzy and calling it a lifetime opportunity.

hospital ... op-er-aaa-tors?

wat dis mean?

 

[cyanide12345678]

hospital ... op-er-aaa-tors?

wat dis mean?

Lol the building is owned by someone else, in this example, MPW reit owns 440 ish hospital buildings. While the building is tented out to ‘hospitals’ - mercy health, spirit health, steward health etc.

The license to have a open hospital is actually associated with the building and owned by the landlord, the tenant just runs the hospital operation, maintains the building (NNN lease), and pays the rent.

So it’s very interesting - a health care company like prospect health or whatever hospital is operating in the building, literally cant even pack up and move to another building because the building owns the right to be the healthcare facility and not the company that actually runs the hospital.

 

[Groove]

 

[cyanide12345678]

View attachment 381132

It was actually great. $5 held on.

And i had 140 contracts before the decision, i was asleep after night shift. Randomly wake up at the perfect time within 5 minutes of the decision and spirit trading being halted. Sold a few more $5 strike contracts around $62 premium. Then sold a 100 more contracts at $52 premium for $5 strike. And as the stock stabilized, premiums started dropping very very fast - within 30 minutes, sold another 20-30 more contracts for $40 premium for the $5 strike.

Ended the day with 275 contracts of $5 SAVE. And 4k profit on the position for the day just purely from volatility crush and perfect timing.

Current premium for the position is $25. So almost 50 percent premium profit within a day on most of the positions i sold today. It was amazing.

Edit: actually it was such a glorious volatility crush that even the positions that i started with ended in the green by the end of the day - premium was around $30 before the decision, went as high as mid 60s, but eventually despite a 50 percent drop, ended up around $25. So…. This was my only green position today despite a 50 percent drop

 

[thegenius]

View attachment 381132

Yea I saw that. I sold a few 7.5P when it was at 16 and got out of it for no net debit, much to my surprise. Vega really crushed it. I ended up actually buying a call diagonal spread with short expiring Feb, long expiring July.

I considered just holding onto the 7.5P, but when these things drop that much at once, they often don’t stay there. They move up and down usually fairly significantly over the next week as they are re-rated by the street.

MPW still going down, now 3.25. I think that stock is entirely hinged to long term refi rates, which is connected to the FFR.

 

[thegenius]

It was actually great. $5 held on.

And i had 140 contracts before the decision, i was asleep after night shift. Randomly wake up at the perfect time within 5 minutes of the decision and spirit trading being halted. Sold a few more $5 strike contracts around $62 premium. Then sold a 100 more contracts at $52 premium for $5 strike. And as the stock stabilized, premiums started dropping very very fast - within 30 minutes, sold another 20-30 more contracts for $40 premium for the $5 strike.

Ended the day with 275 contracts of $5 SAVE. And 4k profit on the position for the day just purely from volatility crush and perfect timing.

Current premium for the position is $25. So almost 50 percent premium profit within a day on most of the positions i sold today. It was amazing.

Edit: actually it was such a glorious volatility crush that even the positions that i started with ended in the green by the end of the day - premium was around $30 before the decision, went as high as mid 60s, but eventually despite a 50 percent drop, ended up around $25. So…. This was my only green position today despite a 50 percent drop

Well done man. You also benefited from delta as it got as low as 5.8…then it went to 7.8. So a combo of vega and delta. We will see what happens over the next week or two.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Well done man. You also benefited from delta as it got as low as 5.8…then it went to 7.8. So a combo of vega and delta. We will see what happens over the next week or two.

I woke up when it was low to mid 6s. Sold puts all the way to low 7s and then went back to sleep. So yeah…definitely got a lot of delta movement my way as well.

I’m just holding for another 5-6 days. Probably walking away soon. Definitely not holding up till the earnings, probably folding 1-2 weeks before earnings because volatility starts climbing and premiums start climbing near earnings.


So maybe 1 more week, let volumes settle down, volatility settle down, and then fold and move on.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Yea I saw that. I sold a few 7.5P when it was at 16 and got out of it for no net debit, much to my surprise. Vega really crushed it. I ended up actually buying a call diagonal spread with short expiring Feb, long expiring July.

I considered just holding onto the 7.5P, but when these things drop that much at once, they often don’t stay there. They move up and down usually fairly significantly over the next week as they are re-rated by the street.

MPW still going down, now 3.25. I think that stock is entirely hinged to long term refi rates, which is connected to the FFR.

I’m planning on going back and going over all financials for mpw again.

The number of shorted shares keeps increasing. The first rate drop and this thing will pop. Another rate hike and we’re looking at new lows.

I opened 125 more contracts today and now hold 775 $3 contracts - $31k in premium.

I’m trying to decide what to do if it drops below $3. They all seem like very reasonable choices as long as mpw does not go bankrupt.

3 options

1) take the shares - cost basis of $2.6 - not bad at all. Take dividends, and sell either 45 day $3 strike calls every 21 days until mpw closes above $3 or a 1 year call with $5 strike. The 1 year call would be a long term capital gains play.

2) extend time to April, drop strike to $2.5, while increase position size to 1000 contracts for a more or less break even trade.

3) continue to hold $3 strike even in the money and roll over every 21 days to continue getting theta decay. Won’t get dividends, but this will use slightly less buying power than buying all those shares.

Im okay doing all the above. Thoughts on what’s the best choice? I hate owning shares now of anything, haven’t owned anything for 3 years. But on paper, the current valuation of the real estate and cash flow is better than almost every private syndication out there with the added benefit of liquidity and ability to milk options premiums.

 

[valianteffort]

I’m planning on going back and going over all financials for mpw again.

The number of shorted shares keeps increasing. The first rate drop and this thing will pop. Another rate hike and we’re looking at new lows.

I opened 125 more contracts today and now hold 775 $3 contracts - $31k in premium.

I’m trying to decide what to do if it drops below $3. They all seem like very reasonable choices as long as mpw does not go bankrupt.

3 options

1) take the shares - cost basis of $2.6 - not bad at all. Take dividends, and sell either 45 day $3 strike calls every 21 days until mpw closes above $3 or a 1 year call with $5 strike. The 1 year call would be a long term capital gains play.

2) extend time to April, drop strike to $2.5, while increase position size to 1000 contracts for a more or less break even trade.

3) continue to hold $3 strike even in the money and roll over every 21 days to continue getting theta decay. Won’t get dividends, but this will use slightly less buying power than buying all those shares.

Im okay doing all the above. Thoughts on what’s the best choice? I hate owning shares now of anything, haven’t owned anything for 3 years. But on paper, the current valuation of the real estate and cash flow is better than almost every private syndication out there with the added benefit of liquidity and ability to milk options premiums.

From a chartist standpoint should be near resistance around $3 dollar mark from the 2009 lows. Anything that slices through that and its in uncharted territory and freefall risk. Once again, I'm a chartist not a overall picture kind of guy. I'd play the bounce with calls with a stop loss at share price 2.95 but taking shares at $2.60 is still risky in my opinion. If it hits 2s , could easily be looking at 1s very soon.