StardeWW 2: Ginger Island - GAME THREAD

Veterinary School Application Advising Ad
This forum made possible through the generous support of SDN members, donors, and sponsors. Thank you.
JaggedJimmyJay said:
One thing that made me question Stagg/Barky as a pair was that Stagg dedicated more "ISO" attention to Barky than [maybe] anyone:


That's a lot of work for a teammate. Perhaps Stagg is the type though.
Click to expand...
Staggs/barky interactions analyzed here with questions as to whether staggs would put that much effort into a barky ISO if teammates
Members don't see this ad.
 
JaggedJimmyJay said:
This might be the most compelling moment to dissociate miranda based upon the previous day phase's events. I am hesitant to award too much credit during a scenario that would be ripe for distancing, but at least this particular point was genuinely compelling.
Click to expand...
This shifts to mirandas
 
Lawpy said:
I’m not sure if you followed up on this deep dive at the time. Hold pls
Click to expand...
I had been long considering the Dubz take that mafia interactions should be viewed more concretely and less for "hedging", and I had noted that Stagg was highly concrete in his discussion of Barky (with the firmer stances and the big ISO posts). Stagg made Barky a point of consistent focus, and it lent to the possibility that he was doing that on purpose. Stagg strikes me as that kind of dude based upon his treatment of Viscernable. I may not have gotten around to posting a big analysis, as that can be time consuming especially on certain days of the week. In the end I moved my vote for team solidarity more than anything really.
 
Members don't see this ad :)
Lawpy said:
I’m not sure what you mean here
Click to expand...
I spent a moment assessing how plausible the mafia might have felt the lucy elimination was on Day 1. Late when the tally was close-ish, only a few people hadn't voted yet that could sway it that direction (including Nate).
 
Lawpy said:
This shifts to mirandas
Click to expand...
There are a couple of little moments like that which make miranda look unpaired. I think that one is reasonably compelling, though it doesn't hit me as hard as the thing with mighty. Lemme grab it
 
mightyrunner7 said:
Yeah, I've been the subject of Santy's investigations in the past, i can understand feeling this way, especially as a newer player. My best advice is to try not to take it personally, it's just their playstyle.
Click to expand...
This thing
 
JaggedJimmyJay said:
There are a couple of little moments like that which make miranda look unpaired. I think that one is reasonably compelling, though it doesn't hit me as hard as the thing with mighty. Lemme grab it
Click to expand...
I’m trying to understand the evolution in your reasoning that led to your voting barky
 
JaggedJimmyJay said:
One thing I note is that when Stagg mentions PSV in this game, it's nearly always alongside someone else.


There are some others I left out contained within larger posts (e.g., vote analysis or the large Barky ISOs). In this sense PSV is sort of being maneuvered within conversations as a piece of an argument rather than a standalone player that needs resolved. I'll need to determine if there are posts contrary to this trend that don't come up in a name search.
Click to expand...

JaggedJimmyJay said:
PSV seemed to be anti-Stagg early in the game, turned that around later, and then returned to that suspicion yesterday. While that may be uneven, it'd have to represent more concrete bussing than Stagg --> PSV would represent in the reverse direction if they're teammates.
Click to expand...

JaggedJimmyJay said:
SAR's read on Stagg progressed somewhat similarly to PSV's -- early suspicion followed by town credit, with a return to suspicion last day phase. Stagg's read on SAR was pretty consistently in the village direction, which concerns me less than the PSV version in which Stagg tacked her onto other players so frequently.
Click to expand...

JaggedJimmyJay said:
Vote PSV

This is where I’m at right now. Gonna continue thinking about it today amid classes.
Click to expand...
Jays push of PSV/pshelty
 
Lawpy said:
I’m trying to understand the evolution in your reasoning that led to your voting barky
Click to expand...
There was also the bit from PSV about [mis]interpreting SAR as having blocked-and-cleared her. I thought the story lined up decently when I reviewed the progressions of posts, and it helped to push my vote off of PSV (and onto Barky). That might have been a mistake unfortunately.
 
JaggedJimmyJay said:
To be clear, are you saying that your strong town read on SAR early in this phase was driven by a belief that she had blocked you and softed doing so?
Click to expand...

potentialsheltervet said:
Partially. I'd already mostly decided she was village.

Never seen this word before. It's fun.

YOU STILL HAVE A LAB MEETING ON FRIDAY

We discuss "rule of three"s often for a similar concept
Click to expand...

JaggedJimmyJay said:
Could you please just quickly state 1) what you thought you saw to indicate this and 2) why you'd view SAR blocking you as a positive thing?
Click to expand...

potentialsheltervet said:
I'll lump the answers to these questions together because they are directly related. She suddenly declared me her very strongest village read when she'd been lightly sussing me previously. I thought she had blocked me, noticed I couldn't possibly have done the NK, and therefore was village reading me based on that. I thought that was a villagey move because a wolf wouldn't have made hints like that when they're the last one left and that could theoretically clear a villager.
Of course she didn't act on me lol but that was my thought process
Click to expand...

JaggedJimmyJay said:

This progression is at least consistent with PSV's account. @SARdoghandler have you expanded on your confidence about PSV? Forgive me if so and just point the way please.
Click to expand...
Well this explains the shift to barky despite the earlier view why the stagg long iso on barky was what initially unpaired the 2 (with low confidence)
 
Members don't see this ad :)
Stagg737 said:
Current thoughts:

POE: Alley>Lawpy>>>PSV >>>Miranda
Maybe I’m retalia-tunneling Lawpy, so want to look more into post history and interactions outside myself and Barks.

Others:
Genny
Barks/SAR
Dubz/Jay

Genny is a big ? Which makes me uncomfortable. Same with SAR but SAR at least feels village and I think has thrown out some decent logical arguments.

Feel better about Barks, but can’t clear and I still don’t know how to interpret the Lawpy interactions.

Dubz and Jay both feel village. Jay is less active but seems to be trying to analyze and be productive for wolf hunting.

Wild card, I could see a possible Genny/SAR/Barks 3P, but we’ve already had one so idk what that would do to game balance.
Click to expand...
Staggs positive comments on Jays

But PSV/pshelty was barely explained?
 
Lawpy said:
Under what conditions have you bussed/are you willing to bus?
Click to expand...
In my first game ever as mafia I bussed, because I had no idea what I was doing and that seemed like the move. That was ages ago. Otherwise in the rare event that I have bussed, it has been when I felt like it was inevitable and inescapable. I think a more common "distance" type thing for me has been to pretend bus and vote teammates when they're unlikely to actually die.
 
Stagg737 said:
There are some fair thoughts here and the second paragraph actually makes a lot of sense to me, but I disagree with the bolded.

The fact that you're still alive despite being "clear" also applies for SAR and Jay, so I don't buy that argument at all. I also think there are plenty of compatibilities in existing POE and I've pointed them out in my posts. Lawpy is compatible with multiple people, including potentially you. Aside from AM's "god read" I don't see a strong village argument for him. On top of that, AM's read was with less than a day of actual play from Lawpy iirc seeing as he subbed in for Coopah. I'm going to have to go back and iso Lawpy, but right now he's near the top of my POE.
Click to expand...
At least in an earlier post, Staggs considered SAR as possible 3P and here Staggs shaded WZ and tried to pair me with WZ. But seems like Staggs read on Jays is still positive.
 
Stagg737 said:
Update current reads/POE from most wolfy to village based on VCA:

POE: Lawpy/Miranda>>PSV

Barks- neutral to slight village lean
Dubz - village lean
JJJ/SAR- village lean

Genny ????

I think the pack that makes the most sense at this point is Lawpy/Miranda. I'll go back and do some actual analysis of posting later, but I don't see JJJ or SAR in a pack. Same goes with Dubz, just with slightly less confidence. I think Barks is more likely village based on VCA and claimed use of her abilities, but I could also see her in a pack with Lawpy. I also need to go back and actually iso/evaluate Genny, because there's not much to go on with her and I keep forgetting about her until she posts, which imo is not good this late into the game.

If people want me to do a VCA on myself, I can, but imo it's pretty straightforward and arguments against my VCA are basically "but, but, deepwolf!" Which I can't really argue against if that's where people will get stuck.
Click to expand...
PSV/pshelty barely explained

Jays positive read but explained a bit
 
Stagg737 said:
JJJ VCA:

D1: Voted for Alley to make it Vis 2 and a bunch of others 1. Then moved to Nate to make it Vis, Miranda, Mighty 2 and Nate, Zenge, Santy 1. Then moved to Mighty and sat there to make it Mighty 3, Vis 2, Lucy 2.

D2: Voted Santy and sat there to make it Santy 8, PSV 2, Alley 2
D3: Ended the day 5/7 on Nate.

Biggest things I take from this is that D1 he could have jumped on the Lucy wagon as a wolf, but did not and instead voted for Mighty and stayed there. D2 and D3 are meh.

Analysis: Overall is mild village leans, but D1 actions earn more solid village cred. Lean village.
Click to expand...
Staggs favorably reads Jays
 
Stagg737 said:
PSV VCA:

D1: First vote on the Lucy wagon. Votes were spread out but count was Miranda, Vis, Mighty with 2 and Zenge, Santy, Nate, Lucy with 1. Sat on that vote until 9:58 and switched to Vis to make it Vis 6, Mighty 6, Stagg 4.

D2: Was first vote on Alley to make count Santy 3, Alley 1, PSV 1. Switched to Santy to break the tie off of Alley and make count Santy 6, Alley 4, PSV 2.

D3: Voted for Barks (who sat on PSV day 2)

Maybe most notably, per VCA PSV and Alley are a compatible pack. PSV started the Lucy wagon and Alley eventually joined. Alley claimed to not be around for close, but PSV may have moved to Vis to gain credit and separate from Alley. PSV is also potentially compatible with Lawpy per VCA as their votes on Lucy were 1 and 2 and came less than 20 minutes apart. If that's the case though, that would mean PSV avoided my potential counterwagon. However, if she had jumped on me that would mean having Lawpy, Might, and PSV on my counterwagon together with consecutive votes which wolves may have wanted to avoid.

Analysis is that this isn't the worst, but isn't good. Also that PSV appears to be compatible with several other living players to be in a pack. Per VCA, PSV is high in the POE.
Click to expand...
This looks like a safe Staggs read on PSV/pshelty

Like if Staggs is a deepwolf and known to tie packmates with villagers as his proposed pack, PSV/pshelty fits that comfortably
 
I get the impression Stagg kinda decided not to bother with SAR or I beyond obligatory VCA stuff
 
Lawpy said:
@potentialsheltervet from raw behavioral interactions, how are you assessing Jays?
Click to expand...
Raw behavioral interactions as in...?
Stagg put him in village reads and didn't really touch him. That's a pretty safe thing to do with the one packmate that is very comfortably tucked deep in the village core.
 
potentialsheltervet said:
In fact, one of my strong suits as a wolf is looking genuine. It's why people usually avoid trying to tone read me.
Click to expand...
I believe it! I should clarify that by "genuine" I am not referring to things like "seeming pure" or even "tone". I am referring to whether I perceive your motivations to be genuine (i.e, your mindset).
 
JaggedJimmyJay said:
I believe it! I should clarify that by "genuine" I am not referring to things like "seeming pure" or even "tone". I am referring to whether I perceive your motivations to be genuine (i.e, your mindset).
Click to expand...
My mindset is, was, and always will be to find wolves and exterminate them. That motivates my dogged (forgive the pun) pursuit of you currently.
 
potentialsheltervet said:
Raw behavioral interactions as in...?
Stagg put him in village reads and didn't really touch him. That's a pretty safe thing to do with the one packmate that is very comfortably tucked deep in the village core.
Click to expand...
General behavioral assessment of Jays in regards to wolves and in regards to villagers
 
Lawpy said:
General behavioral assessment of Jays in regards to wolves and in regards to villagers
Click to expand...
Ah. I find it slightly odd how comfortable he was camping on mighty. I don't recall him contributing much to discussion, more throwing out that he disliked mighty's phrasing, placing a vote, and then stepping away. We've discussed the Vis sitch extensively and Stagg kept JJJ solidly in village leans whereas JJJ hopped around more on Stagg.
I don't feel as though there have been many villagers that JJJ hasn't sussed or been willing to sus, and I find that starkly different than last game.
 
potentialsheltervet said:
I don't feel as though there have been many villagers that JJJ hasn't sussed or been willing to sus, and I find that starkly different than last game.
Click to expand...
Last game I believe I town read both mafia and exclusively suspected town. I had a terrible game.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Next unread thread

Similar threads

supershorty
StardeWW 2: Ginger Island - Sign Up Thread (CLOSED, Game Start 3/14)
2 3
Replies
143
Views
3K
supershorty
supershorty
Animal Midwife
Matrix - Game Thread
77 78 79 80 81
Replies
4K
Views
32K
samac
samac
kaydubs
Melee WW Game Thread-April 2024
27 28 29 30 31
Replies
2K
Views
10K
samac
samac
kaydubs
Lucky 7777777 WW Game Thread-Non Champs April 2024
9 10 11 12 13
Replies
622
Views
4K
WildZoo
WildZoo
supershorty
StardeWW Valley - GAME THREAD
81 82 83 84 85
Replies
4K
Views
47K
supershorty
supershorty
Top