The Investment Thread (stocks, bonds, real estate, retirement, just not gold)

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BYD has overtaken Tesla. I think their price for a regular sized sedan is $25 k. It is currently selling in Europe, South America and Asia, not in US


Anyone who owns an EV knows it is a superior product. Price is the sticking point.
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The Ukraine war and the confiscation of Russia’s $300b fund is pushing other countries to trade with their own currencies. You don’t need a reserve currency for transactional purposes. A new system can be set up between two countries where there is no one country that controls it. Once the dollar is no longer king and we can no longer print money out of thin air, what is the US going to give to other countries for their goods and services? Think about all of these dollars abroad….they will come home.

This is likely the biggest blunder of the Biden administration
 
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libra08 said:
View attachment 380187

The Ukraine war and the confiscation of Russia’s $300b fund is pushing other countries to trade with their own currencies. You don’t need a reserve currency for transactional purposes. A new system can be set up between two countries where there is no one country that controls it. Once the dollar is no longer king and we can no longer print money out of thin air, what is the US going to give to other countries for their goods and services? Think about all of these dollars abroad….they will come home.

This is likely the biggest blunder of the Biden administration
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Amount of oil India has been able to purchase in Rupees: Zero barrels.
markets.businessinsider.com

India wanted to ditch the US dollar and buy oil in rupees. No seller wanted to get involved.

India's trading partners have remained reluctant to receive rupee payments, in a setback to the Asian nation's efforts to widen international acceptance for its currency.
markets.businessinsider.com markets.businessinsider.com

This dedollarization you're so worried about is going about as well as me trying to take my wife to dinner at Spago with the Sunnybucks I printed.
 
sunnyandseventytwo said:
Amount of oil India has been able to purchase in Rupees: Zero barrels.
markets.businessinsider.com

India wanted to ditch the US dollar and buy oil in rupees. No seller wanted to get involved.

India's trading partners have remained reluctant to receive rupee payments, in a setback to the Asian nation's efforts to widen international acceptance for its currency.
markets.businessinsider.com markets.businessinsider.com

This dedollarization you're so worried about is going about as well as me trying to take my wife to dinner at Spago with the Sunnybucks I printed.
Click to expand...

No one uses the rupees. India doesn’t make things the world wants. It doesn’t have natural resources. India just has human capital. India is only buying excess oil because it can refine it and resell it to EU for a premium price.

This is not new. Other countries have started trading in their own currencies without any problem. Why use a currency where the US can confiscate? The dollar is man made, not god made.
 
I spoke too soon. India just traded rupees for crudes. The UAE hires a lot of Indian construction workers. They can then pay their workers with rupees.

India is buying excess Russian oil right now….more than it actually needs. Russia can’t sell oil to EU but EU is willing to buy Russian oil refined in India. India is pocketing the difference.

IMG_3052.jpg
 
libra08 said:
No one uses the rupees. India doesn’t make things the world wants. It doesn’t have natural resources. India just has human capital. India is only buying excess oil because it can refine it and resell it to EU for a premium price.

This is not new. Other countries have started trading in their own currencies without any problem. Why use a currency where the US can confiscate? The dollar is man made, not god made.
Click to expand...
You said India. "Other countries" are not trading their own currencies without any problem. Russia and Iran are selling oil in yuan because they've been sanctioned and can't use dollars. That was the idea behind the sanctions...
 
sunnyandseventytwo said:
You said India. "Other countries" are not trading their own currencies without any problem. Russia and Iran are selling oil in yuan because they've been sanctioned and can't use dollars. That was the idea behind the sanctions...
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They are using their own currencies for trades (China and Brazil). Russia and Iran want the yuan because they can then trade it in for Chinese goods but they are also trading within their own currencies.

India is more of an outlier right now because they are importing way more oil than they actually need. They are profiting from the Ukraine war but Russia wants yuan not Indian rupees. Russia is at war. It needs to spend. India would also have the same problem if it were to use the dollars to buy massive amount of steel. What is India going to give to other countries for their dollars?

The point is countries are already bypassing the dollars for trades. When the dollar is no longer widely used for international trades then what do you think will happen? Even 10-20% drop would have consequences
 
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This could be the biggest blunder for Biden and the dollar dominated system.

Think about the foreign countries and funds that buy US treasury bonds, invest in US stock market and businesses. Do they want US to control their foreign policy? Even allies like France don’t always agree with us.

No reserve currency lasts forever. Before WW1, the dollar was only used in 1% of all global transactions. If the trillions of dollars printed over the last decade come back home, it will cause massive inflation.

Retirees who own US bonds will take a huge loss. Banks too and that could lead to something else.
 
What do countries whose currencies are not the global reserve do? Can we just do that? I am pretty uninformed on monitory policy but not being the reserve can’t possibly be the end of the world can it? Other countries seem to get on just fine anyway.
 
owlegrad said:
What do countries whose currencies are not the global reserve do? Can we just do that? I am pretty uninformed on monitory policy but not being the reserve can’t possibly be the end of the world can it? Other countries seem to get on just fine anyway.
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You'll have to conduct all your transactions with gold bars (which you can buy at Costco) or Bitcoin.
 
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owlegrad said:
What do countries whose currencies are not the global reserve do? Can we just do that? I am pretty uninformed on monitory policy but not being the reserve can’t possibly be the end of the world can it? Other countries seem to get on just fine anyway.
Click to expand...

The dollar has crossed the rubicon. Inflation is a certainty if the dollar collapses. However, inflation is great for debtors…those with student loans, mortgages (like me), auto loans. On the other side it would suck for those who own these debts like retirees, bond holders, banks, feds, etc. A weakened dollar also means manufacturing things in the U.S. will be cheaper but it will come at the expense of the service economy (77% of the economy).

The US capital market will no longer dominate. Companies including foreign companies won’t be going to NYC to raise capital. No more Fed’s cheap money policy means speculative investments like crypto will be affected.

Borrowing cost from mortgages to auto to credit card will go up. Home price appreciation will stagnant or be negatively affected.

The global south including Russia, China, India wants de-dollarization. Every time the dollar is used in a trade, there is a transactional tax. It makes the dollar stronger and allows the US to print money at their expense. More importantly, de-dollarization to them also means US can no longer support $880b/year pentagon budget ($1.5T if you include everything like VA, veteran benefits, CIA, etc). US military will then to have drawback from its international commitment. It can no longer be the world cop.

It is certainly won’t be the end of the world but the world you know today will be very different.
 
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IMG_3059.jpg


Potential hotspot in 2024. Will US intervene?

Ukraine and Africa then Gaza…coincidence? Can US military be everywhere?
 
owlegrad said:
What do countries whose currencies are not the global reserve do? Can we just do that? I am pretty uninformed on monitory policy but not being the reserve can’t possibly be the end of the world can it? Other countries seem to get on just fine anyway.
Click to expand...

Just in case I didn’t directly answer your question…US can’t be like other countries without a reserve currency because:

1) Debt is already $34T (debt to gdp is 120%) while growth has stagnated vs inflation

2) Collects $4T/year in taxes but spends $6T ($2T deficit)…who will lend US money to balance its budget?

3) Huge military budget..how will US pay for its military without printing?

4) Huge trade deficit with other countries..if US can’t print, what will US give to other countries for their goods and services?

5) NYC will no longer be the dominate financial center

6) Losses its international influence
 
libra08 said:
Just in case I didn’t directly answer your question…US can’t be like other countries without a reserve currency because:

1) Debt is already $34T (debt to gdp is 120%) while growth has stagnated vs inflation

2) Collects $4T/year in taxes but spends $6T ($2T deficit)…who will lend US money to balance its budget?

3) Huge military budget..how will US pay for its military without printing?

4) Huge trade deficit with other countries..if US can’t print, what will US give to other countries for their goods and services?

5) NYC will no longer be the dominate financial center

6) Losses its international influence
Click to expand...

What can us peasants do to keep up with the rest of the world?
 
mentos said:
What can us peasants do to keep up with the rest of the world?
Click to expand...
I've seriously been hearing about this since the 80s when the Japanese started buying up Los Angeles. I'd say the moral of the story is buy office buildings, except for the most part, it didn't work out well for the Japanese. Anyway, real estate is probably a good hedge. I, for one, am far more concerned about climate change than the collapse of the dollar. So I'm only buying property above and below the 45th parallel.
 
sunnyandseventytwo said:
I've seriously been hearing about this since the 80s when the Japanese started buying up Los Angeles. I'd say the moral of the story is buy office buildings, except for the most part, it didn't work out well for the Japanese. Anyway, real estate is probably a good hedge. I, for one, am far more concerned about climate change than the collapse of the dollar. So I'm only buying property above and below the 45th parallel.
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Above and below the 45th parallel?
 
mentos said:
Above and below the 45th parallel?
Click to expand...
time.com

Where We'll End Up Living as the Planet Burns

Over the next fifty years, hotter temperatures combined with intense humidity are set to make large swathes of the globe lethal to live in.
time.com time.com

Note: I don't think this article adequately addresses flooding risks. The Upper peninsula of Michigan fits the bill from a latitude perspective, but they've had some serious floods in the last few years.
 
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Will US invade Yemen? Saudi Arabia waged war against Yemen that lasted for a few years but without sending in troops, it failed. Yemen is battle hardened..bombs and missiles won’t stop them.
 
libra08 said:
View attachment 380284

Will US invade Yemen? Saudi Arabia waged war against Yemen that lasted for a few years but without sending in troops, it failed. Yemen is battle hardened..bombs and missiles won’t stop them.
Click to expand...
Yemen is of no consequence in the region. Their only natural resource it, is "Strategic location". It's political system is "Civil War". Yes, battle hardened, due to decades of civil war. And that is amongst several different warring parties. Sort of like, a poor man's Afghanistan (without the Taliban). By far, the least developed, lowest income economy in the Middle East. Their economy based on agriculture (in the middle of a desert) and fishing. NO OIL, not worth a second look by the US. There is no sense in "bombing them into the stone age", they are already there. Their one and only support is Iran. Iran sends them some missiles, directs them to blast any ships going by.

Plus, Saudi Arabia, is viewed as US's lap dog. definitely not a major force in the Middle East. This was proven during Iraq's march into Kuwait, as Saudi's watched, panicked and summoned US / Desert Shield. You really think US was concerned with WMD, helping Iraqis, or Saudi Oil and money?

US foreign policy in the Middle East, runs on a single principal, how cheap can we extract the oil, and how much weapons can they afford to purchase. All US motivations are so clear, yet so subterfuge.
 
RXDOC1986 said:
Yemen is of no consequence in the region. Their only natural resource it, is "Strategic location". It's political system is "Civil War". Yes, battle hardened, due to decades of civil war. And that is amongst several different warring parties. Sort of like, a poor man's Afghanistan (without the Taliban). By far, the least developed, lowest income economy in the Middle East. Their economy based on agriculture (in the middle of a desert) and fishing. NO OIL, not worth a second look by the US. There is no sense in "bombing them into the stone age", they are already there. Their one and only support is Iran. Iran sends them some missiles, directs them to blast any ships going by.

Plus, Saudi Arabia, is viewed as US's lap dog. definitely not a major force in the Middle East. This was proven during Iraq's march into Kuwait, as Saudi's watched, panicked and summoned US / Desert Shield. You really think US was concerned with WMD, helping Iraqis, or Saudi Oil and money?

US foreign policy in the Middle East, runs on a single principal, how cheap can we extract the oil, and how much weapons can they afford to purchase. All US motivations are so clear, yet so subterfuge.
Click to expand...

Yemen is not a powerful country. However, if the Houthis can sink a U.S. destroyer then that would damage US military prestige…imagine what a strong country can do.
 
Just counting pure EV (not hybrid), BYD delivered more cars than Tesla in 4th quarter 2023 (first time ever) but Tesla delivered more cars in 2023. BYD is currently not being sold in North America. It is clear… there is a strong demand for $25 k reliable EV with good range.

Tesla overtaken by China’s BYD as world’s biggest EV maker

Fourth-quarter sales from Elon Musk’s group beat estimates but fall behind Chinese rival for the first time
www.ft.com www.ft.com
 
Elon is too busy with Dogecoin, Twitter and SpaceX. He now owns just 13% of Tesla. Twitter is losing money so he has to keep on selling Tesla stocks to pay for Twitter expenses.

Cybertruck is behind schedule so is the Semi. Where is the Roadster? It was supposed to be delivered in 2020.
 
What do you guys think of Palantir (PLTR)?

I might buy some if it goes below < $16.00
 
Prepharm1214 said:
Curious to see how these were calculated, these calculations are so dependent on how much spending people do on average. I assume it's just a cost of living tilt between states and averaged out
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Yeah it wouldn’t take it as face value.

In California, property tax can only increase 2% per year so we have houses that are worth $1m but they are only paying $5000 a year in property tax since they were purchased them 20 years ago. You can live a fairly decent live for two on $50-60,000 a year (after tax money).
 
Just passed the $34T mark. That is equivalent to every man, woman, child owing $100,000

From 2014 to 2024, debt grew at a rate of 7.2% per year while the economy has only been growing 2%.

IMG_3073.jpg
 
libra08 said:
Just counting pure EV (not hybrid), BYD delivered more cars than Tesla in 4th quarter 2023 (first time ever) but Tesla delivered more cars in 2023. BYD is currently not being sold in North America. It is clear… there is a strong demand for $25 k reliable EV with good range.

Tesla overtaken by China’s BYD as world’s biggest EV maker

Fourth-quarter sales from Elon Musk’s group beat estimates but fall behind Chinese rival for the first time
www.ft.com www.ft.com
Click to expand...

They will never sell in North America with 25% tariffs.

BYD EVs spotted in EV graveyards. This is why there is so much "demand".

auto.hindustantimes.com

Is this how Chinese EV makers are fooling the world? Know more

Chinese car manufacturers have been allegedly using deceptive tactics of registering their EVs and abandoning to balloon their sales numbers.
auto.hindustantimes.com auto.hindustantimes.com
 
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mentos said:
They will never sell in North America with 25% tariffs.

BYD EVs spotted in EV graveyards. This is why there is so much "demand".

auto.hindustantimes.com

Is this how Chinese EV makers are fooling the world? Know more

Chinese car manufacturers have been allegedly using deceptive tactics of registering their EVs and abandoning to balloon their sales numbers.
auto.hindustantimes.com auto.hindustantimes.com
Click to expand...

Actually BYD already manufactures EV buses in California. I see them opening a plant in the U.S. or Mexico to avoid the tariffs. Many don’t know this but Polestar is also Chinese own and they are already selling EVs in the U.S.

Hindu news? Those outdated EVs belong to a taxi company that went bankrupt when covid hit. If you don’t think they are expanding fast then ask Europe, Thailand, Australia, Mexico.

EVs are a superior product and give a better driving experience than a gas car. The only thing is affordability. A reliable and affordable EV will sell like hot pancakes…there is a tremendous demand for a reliable $25 k EV with good range.
 
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Yup, I guessed it right..another potential conflict on the horizon to weaken the U.S. position. Can U.S. military fight in Europe? Middle East? S America? Korea? South China Sea at the same time? Every western country from Europe to Asia depends on U.S. weapons and protections but U.S. manufacturering industry has been gutted after the Cold War and changed to fight people who wear sandals and live in a cave.

Of all the potential conflict, North Korea concerned me the most. Supposedly, in exchange for 1m artillery shells, Russia helped North Korea to develop its ICBM that can nuke U.S. west coast.

I never understood South Korea strategy. Obviously they are playing with a weaker hand. Do they seriously think U.S. will trade LA for Seoul? All of this tough talk from a novice politician who got famous from prosecuting the former Korean PM. No wonder his approval rating is in the 20s.

The grand strategy is simple. Force the U.S. military to fight everywhere.
 
Stocks are kinda boring so far this year.
 
I don't know what to buy anymore in my Roth. More boring index funds.
 
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libra08 said:
I want stocks to go up but how much more can they go up? Where is the catalyst besides dropping interest rates?
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Millennials (at least the ones in my circle, between 30 and 42yo) appear to be much more financially savvy than boomers, and investing heavily. Isn't the younger generations investing heavily a catalyst to further growth?

The new pharm grads that I interact with are the same. They all took an investing/financial literacy elective.
 
PharmDBro2017 said:
Millennials (at least the ones in my circle, between 30 and 42yo) appear to be much more financially savvy than boomers, and investing heavily. Isn't the younger generations investing heavily a catalyst to further growth?

The new pharm grads that I interact with are the same. They all took an investing/financial literacy elective.
Click to expand...

Maybe….it is easier today to invest in stock market but you can also make the argument that the huge baby boomer generation is now retiring and will be sellers not buyers of stocks
 
Can I afford a 70k car? I don't think I can. I have been struggling with that decision for 2-3 months now.

We drive a 2008 Lexus ES and 2009 Acura MDX.

Income was 401.5k last year (and another ~20k net in real estate investment). Net worth is a little over 1 mil.

Mortgage payment is < $1600/month and I will start paying back student loan in April, which might be ~$2900/month. No other bills except groceries/utilities etc...

I am genuinely concerned that a 70k car is too expensive of a car for my financial situation.

I think a 40k car is what I should buy, which I can pay cash for and still have 6-month emergency fund, but my spouse think we can afford a 70k car.

What you guys/gals think?

By the way, I could make an extra 12k/yr in real estate, but I am helping a good friend who wants to save money to buy a house.
 
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Splenda88 said:
Can I afford a 70k car? I don't think I can. I have been struggling with that decision for 2-3 months now.

We drive a 2008 Lexus ES and 2009 Acura MDX.

Income was 401k last year (and another ~20k net in real estate investment). Net worth is a little over 1 mil.

Mortgage payment is &lt; $1600/month and I will start paying back student loan in April, which might be ~$2900/month. No other bills except groceries/utilities etc...

I am genuinely concerned that a 70k car is too expensive of a car for my financial situation.

I think a 40k car is what I should buy, which and I can pay cash and still have 6-month emergency fund, but my spouse think we can afford a 70k care.

What you guys/gals think?

By the way, I could make an extra 12k/yr in real estate, but I am helping a good friend who is going thru a tough time.
Click to expand...

Of course you can afford it. I recently purchased &gt; $70 k with cash. Did I need it? No but it is nice to drive a top of the line car. People do notice it too..I have a couple of homeless guys giving me a thumb up.

But it is a give and take. You can also use that money for a down payment on a rental. I just got tired of saving.

Btw, if you want to buy rentals you need to keep your debt to income ratio low so leasing an expensive car might not be the best option.
 
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libra08 said:
Of course you can afford it. I recently purchased > $70 k with cash. Did I need it? No but it is nice to drive a top of the line car. People do notice it too..I have a couple of homeless guys giving me a thumb up.

But it is a give and take. You can also use that money for a down payment on a rental. I just got tired of saving.
Click to expand...
Your net worth might be a lot higher than mine...
 
Splenda88 said:
Your net worth might be a lot higher than mine...
Click to expand...

Long run you will do well. You have a new but good problem which is how to invest your earnings. You don’t want to be a W2 worker forever. Creating another source of income where you won’t be taxed up the nose should be your mission.
 
libra08 said:
Long run you will do well. You have a new but good problem which is how to invest your earnings. You don’t want to be a W2 worker forever. Creating another source of income where you won’t be taxed up the nose should be your mission.
Click to expand...
I guess I probably will wait for another 6 months to make that purchase.
 
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If you make 400k and can't afford to buy a 70k new car then its not b/c u cant afford it.
 
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