Re: trends, I keep a large collection of data that examine things like NIH funding and US news stuff over time, in addition to other indicators.
The long-term trends are really interesting if you take the time to examine them. Looking at the data, you can often pinpoint exactly when a school decided to adopt a more academic philosophy, often due to a change in leadership. Typically, the schools that successfully manage to climb up the academic ladder either: A) have monopolies in large markets, B) are clearly distinguished over their peers in very large markets, or C) benefit from outside industrial influences.
The typical school that consistently trends downward is the one that suffers at the hands of a more reputed neighbor in a saturated market. The down-trending schools usually don't have much room to expand and are typically located in the northeast.
The most notable shooting star that continues to be on the upswing, however, is Pittsburgh. It went from merely an above-average academic institution to elite class in a period of about 20 years, thanks in part to sound economic management, a lack of real local competition, and a seismic shift in philosophy. This is a school that will continue to rise -- you can bank on that. Other prominent med schools that are steadily rising and have yet to hit their peaks include Emory and OHSU.
The most under-the-radar rankings-climber this year inhabits the OC. In terms of research dollars, UC Irvine has taken off in an extremely short period of time. Expect a sizeable jump in next year's issue of US news, which will rely heavily on FY 06 and FY 07 awards from the NIH.
Of the schools trending downward, the most prominent is NYU. It went from top 10 in research funding to top 40 (and soon to be top ~45) in a period of about 30 years, and it continues to nosedive in this category at an alarming rate. This is likely a consequence of its location in a saturated market and its inability to expand much more. Other schools that have also fallen hard include Einstein, SUNY Downstate, SUNY Buffalo, Upstate, Albany Med, NYMC, Temple, and UMiss (don't ask me how that one got in there). Pritzker had also been gradually falling until about 10 years ago, when it reversed course and picked up again. It is still, however, a far cry from its previous top ten status.
Finally, despite what's going on in NY, MSSM has steadily risen back to prominence over the past ~10-15 years, and it's climbing even faster today. I don't know much about their location or how they're pulling it off, but it definitely looks like a strong trend.
