2020 Market Performance (No active trading)

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Neither of you guys are wrong. It’s such an interesting thing to think about motivational factors and performance in our kids.

My kids will never know the balance of my 529 account and it isn’t a given they will be given an unlimited sum semester after semester if they don’t perform well. I do feel like by the time you make it to medical school or a good law school, you have shown the level of commitment where I can trust that you won’t blow off the work and flunk out (though I’m sure we have anecdotes of a few kids we all know who did).

I like the idea of making them responsible for living expenses, books, something to have some additional buyin. But we all probably know that either you have that innate drive and desire to do well and succeed as an individual or you don’t. It seems hard wired in some way.

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I’m truly impressed with you guys/gals. Do you have a trusted financial advisor that you are in consultation with before any move or it’s totally self-driven? I have had a hard time finding a good one so if you have anyone to recommend, pls send me the info. Thnx :)
 
I’m truly impressed with you guys/gals. Do you have a trusted financial advisor that you are in consultation with before any move or it’s totally self-driven? I have had a hard time finding a good one so if you have anyone to recommend, pls send me the info. Thnx :)


I just read the white coat investor book and listen to every single podcast. When I was in medical school, some financial advisor came to talk to us. Guy said he would actively manage accounts and wanted 1%. Made it seem like it's no big deal, he needs to feed his kids too blah blah but then I stumbled onto white coat investor at the perfect time. I will save likely hundreds of thousands thanks to wci and I don't complain too much about all the affiliates and the sometimes overbearing advertising. He posts here too occasionally although I think he's too busy nowadays.
 
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The Asian markets and emerging markets have underperformed the past few years. If you believe in a return to the norm, as you do, the odds heavily favor international and emerging markets vs the USA. That said, I have 28% of my equity exposure in those categories and I am hoping that next year the % increases to 35% as those equities begin to catch up.

What other funds besides VXUS or VTIAX are you guys using to increase exposure to international and emerging markets?
 
I’m truly impressed with you guys/gals. Do you have a trusted financial advisor that you are in consultation with before any move or it’s totally self-driven? I have had a hard time finding a good one so if you have anyone to recommend, pls send me the info. Thnx :)

DIY. No one cares about your money as much as you do.

I have yet to see a financial advisor justify their expenses. None can really beat the market over 30 years.

I typically follow more of a boglehead philosophy. No huge risks and consistent saving and investing. The ratio of stocks to bonds and domestic to international is personal to be honest and there doesn't appear to be one right answer.

White coat investor is solid although I don't follow everything he says.

As long as a physician is reasonable with expenses (house/car being the big ones) and maximizes tax advantage savings, they should do fine.
 
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I just read the white coat investor book and listen to every single podcast. When I was in medical school, some financial advisor came to talk to us. Guy said he would actively manage accounts and wanted 1%. Made it seem like it's no big deal, he needs to feed his kids too blah blah but then I stumbled onto white coat investor at the perfect time. I will save likely hundreds of thousands thanks to wci and I don't complain too much about all the affiliates and the sometimes overbearing advertising. He posts here too occasionally although I think he's too busy nowadays.
Yep. Don’t do it.
I have a very wealthy family member who at one point took a large sum of money- he invested 1/3 in vanguard total, gave 1/3 to one advisor, and 1/3 to another. After a year, not only did his account outperform theirs- he blew them out of the water after accounting for their 1% fees.
I myself went through 2 advisors in my younger days before I figured this out. Neither one beat the S&P, and charged me to boot. Active trading seems like a good idea on paper but those guys rarely beat the market over time.
 
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I always figured if the financial advisor was really that good, they wouldn’t still be working.
 
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If you do get a financial advisor then use one that charges an hourly or flat-fee (not a percentage of your portfolio which is NOT a good idea).

There are plenty of doctors that would benefit from advice if you admit you aren’t disciplined or willing to DIY. A good one will mainly add value by reinforcing things you could have read yourself on WCI - there are plenty of docs that need to be told that stuff though (and more likely to follow it by being told face-to-face). That being said, I myself do not use one.
 
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I’m 70/10/20 US total stock, small value, and international. No bonds as I have 30yrs to retirement. No plans to try to retire early but would be nice to have the option. Current plan is to max 401ks, back door Roth’s, cash balance plan, and wife has VA pension. 600/month/kid in 529s. Student loans are 2k/month for 5 years at 1.5%, so no rush to pay them off unless interest rates rise. Never have and never will try to pick stocks or time market. Buy happens monthly the day after pay day.

As others have said in the thread, the current situation should teach everyone you can’t predict the market. You will lose your mind betting on an irrational market behaving rationally.

My current question is that I live in a high COL area and am saving for a down payment, which unfortunately out here is in the 500k range for a 2k square foot home. I currently have this accumulating in a taxable account in VTMFX (vanguard tax managed 50/50 bond/stock). It’s worked out well so far (earned an extra 10k), but wonder if I should move more to cash/savings. Obviously I have some downside exposure, though I tell myself it’s fine as if I need to wait another 3-6 months to buy it’s not a huge problem.
 
I’m 70/10/20 US total stock, small value, and international. No bonds as I have 30yrs to retirement. No plans to try to retire early but would be nice to have the option. Current plan is to max 401ks, back door Roth’s, cash balance plan, and wife has VA pension. 600/month/kid in 529s. Student loans are 2k/month for 5 years at 1.5%, so no rush to pay them off unless interest rates rise. Never have and never will try to pick stocks or time market. Buy happens monthly the day after pay day.

As others have said in the thread, the current situation should teach everyone you can’t predict the market. You will lose your mind betting on an irrational market behaving rationally.

My current question is that I live in a high COL area and am saving for a down payment, which unfortunately out here is in the 500k range for a 2k square foot home. I currently have this accumulating in a taxable account in VTMFX (vanguard tax managed 50/50 bond/stock). It’s worked out well so far (earned an extra 10k), but wonder if I should move more to cash/savings. Obviously I have some downside exposure, though I tell myself it’s fine as if I need to wait another 3-6 months to buy it’s not a huge problem.
Is the down payment $500k or the house price $500k?

When do you need the money?

If the market drops 50% would you be okay with losing that much of your saved down payment?

If not, then into a savings account or high yield CD etc.
 
Is the down payment $500k or the house price $500k?

When do you need the money?

If the market drops 50% would you be okay with losing that much of your saved down payment?

If not, then into a savings account or high yield CD etc.
Down payment 500 😯 I know. No set time probably a couple years.

I Don’t expect a 50% drop (it dropped 20% in Great Recession and 12% this year) due to being half bonds, but nothings impossible. Responsible thing probably to put it in high yield savings just feels wrong to keep that much in cash. I’d probably rather be in the market and risk having to rent another few years.
 
Down payment 500 😯 I know. No set time probably a couple years.

I Don’t expect a 50% drop (it dropped 20% in Great Recession and 12% this year) due to being half bonds, but nothings impossible. Responsible thing probably to put it in high yield savings just feels wrong to keep that much in cash. I’d probably rather be in the market and risk having to rent another few years.

Why are you putting $500k down?
 
Why are you putting $500k down?
Because in this area a nice but not extravagant (think 4 BR, 2000 square feet) house costs 2.5 mil.
 
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Because in this area a nice but not extravagant (think 4 BR, 2000 square feet) house costs 2.5 mil.
Wooooof!

My home, 4Bd3bath 2200sq ft in nice neighborhood.... $200,000 3 years ago.

I can't even fathom paying those prices you're talking about.
 
Are doctor loans available in that price range?
Most top out below that price range, and tbh I’d rather put the money down anyways. At that price getting a bit lower interest makes a big difference. The good news is that it is likely to be an appreciating asset and if need be could sell and have geographic arbitrage. It is scary to put so much of ones worth into a single asset though.
 
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Where do you live? The moon?

Maybe Palo Alto/Menlo Park.

FWIW, my dad and his best friend both bought homes for $60-65k in 1976. My dad in a nice Cleveland suburb and his buddy in Orange County, Ca. My dad’s house is now worth about $350k and his friend’s house is somewhere between $1.5-2mil.
 
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Maybe Palo Alto/Menlo Park.

FWIW, my dad and his best friend both bought homes for $60-65k in 1976. My dad in a nice Cleveland suburb and his buddy in Orange County, Ca. My dad’s house is now worth about $350k and his friend’s house is somewhere between $1.5-2mil.

Nearby. In Palo Alto that 4bed 3 bath 2k sq. foot home is more like 3.5 or 3.75
 
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Nearby. In Palo Alto that 4bed 3 bath 2k sq. foot home is more like 3.5 or 3.75

4 million for a 2000 sqft what is this guy smoking??
 
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Wow that’s crazy. Checked other houses in the area and 1000sq ft is close to 2 mil. How does anyone afford to live there? Even for the average physicians these house are out of reach. How much do anesthesiologists get paid there?
 
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Wow that’s crazy. Checked other houses in the area and 1000sq ft is close to 2 mil. How does anyone afford to live there? Even for the average physicians these house are out of reach. How much do anesthesiologists get paid there?

Flip side is that anesthesiologists who moved there 15 years ago are sitting on millions in home equity.
 
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Flip side is that anesthesiologists who moved there 15 years ago are sitting on millions in home equity.
Yup. That’s the flip side of buying there. Everyone in the past 90 years that bought has made a killing. Of course past performance doesn’t predict future results . . .
 
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Yup. That’s the flip side of buying there. Everyone in the past 90 years that bought has made a killing. Of course past performance doesn’t predict future results . . .
The other side of the coin is lower salaries, higher taxes, smaller nest eggs. They are home equity rich compared to most of the anesthesiologists in the country, (plus enjoying the benefits of living in CA-not small). But financially otherwise poor (relative to many other anesthesiologists).
 
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The other side of the coin is lower salaries, higher taxes, smaller nest eggs. They are home equity rich compared to most of the anesthesiologists in the country, (plus enjoying the benefits of living in CA-not small). But financially otherwise poor (relative to many other anesthesiologists).

When the restaurants are open, the sushi is good.
 
Wow that’s crazy. Checked other houses in the area and 1000sq ft is close to 2 mil. How does anyone afford to live there? Even for the average physicians these house are out of reach. How much do anesthesiologists get paid there?

Palo Alto is for techies who made a big quick fortune from start-up IPO. Doordash market cap 45b, snowflake 75b, unity software 38b. None of them makes a profit. Two many millionaires, limited house supply, and low property tax equals red hot real estate market. Not a place for anesthesiologists, for now.
 
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The last time I went to Palo Alto for an interview, I was thrilled to find a motel room with < 150 dollars /night (all around price was > 450 /night). Then I figured I was too boring for their themed room (!!!!!!). Checked off Palo Alto once and forever!
 
As a resident with no debt. Last year I had somewhere around 50% returns (first year I have invested in the stock market). Most of the gains were with gold/silver miners. Some with Shell that I bought when it made the last bottom and some with a uranium miner. Many of my gold miners have not outperformed the market in general last year and I don't think they are as attractive to the new buyer as when I first got in. Not adding, not taking profits either.

People don't have to sell anything since they are getting plenty of unemployment benefits and checks from government, so I do not expect a major nominal general stock market drop in the foreseeable future. But some companies have a much bigger downside potential now (looking at you, tesla, bankrupt companies getting bid up). I am watching those, if a major general stock market crash happens, I'll short those without loosing sleep.

Since at the moment I can't think of other undervalued assets that I am able to buy, I will be adding to my gold/silver physical bullion (which is essentially serving as cash/bonds for me) until I find a better use of my money. Imo, with the new administration there will be a lot of rules changes to favor the democrats friends now, so who knows what companies will perform well this year, I am out of ideas at the moment though.
 
I don’t know what’ll happen. Tesla could just as easily go to 1600 as it could 400 IMO. When we pause for a moment and consider our future it’s in clean energy and technology. But if in two years someone quotes this post after tech and clean energy have dropped 90% I’ll be like ‘meh, okay’.

I’m going to be working for a lot longer so I’ll keep playing the long game.
 
I don’t know what’ll happen. Tesla could just as easily go to 1600 as it could 400 IMO. When we pause for a moment and consider our future it’s in clean energy and technology. But if in two years someone quotes this post after tech and clean energy have dropped 90% I’ll be like ‘meh, okay’.

I’m going to be working for a lot longer so I’ll keep playing the long game.

Lol all I know is that I pulled out way too early. I still think it's a bubble though.
 
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I don’t know what’ll happen. Tesla could just as easily go to 1600 as it could 400 IMO. When we pause for a moment and consider our future it’s in clean energy and technology. But if in two years someone quotes this post after tech and clean energy have dropped 90% I’ll be like ‘meh, okay’.

I’m going to be working for a lot longer so I’ll keep playing the long game.

Is Tesla really clean energy? Where the electricity comes from? What about the environmental impact of the batteries?

The wind, solar energy is very economically inefficient. Unless we have a good energy storage solution, or better, nuclear fusion.
 
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STOCKS
This was the first year I got into stocks. I've put in $5,200 since September, and it's currently sitting at just under $6,500. I own stock in 50 different companies, and overall it was a successful year in all sectors, with very few notable losers. 27 of my 50 stocks gained greater than 10% since my purchase, and of the other 23 I own, none of them are have lost 10%. My biggest loser was Nikola, which I finally got out of later than I should have. Biggest winners by percentage (all of which are up over 100%) have been Tesla (of course), Capri Holdings (Jimmy Choo, other luxury brands), and Chesapeake Energy (never going to reach anywhere near what it once was, but a sentimental pick I put a small amount in). Overall, my only regrets are not jumping on the crash in March and buying low, and not buying more Tesla. Alas, hindsight is 20/20.

MUTUAL FUNDS
I've had an Edward Jones mutual funds account with unused college money brewing for a while. A nice spread amongst CWGIX (American Capital World Growth), AMECX (American Inc Fund of America), and AIVSX (American Investment Funds). Came into the year at just over $44k, walked out with just over $49k.

ROTH IRA
Been contributing to the wife and my Roth IRA through Vanguard the last 2 years (wish we started earlier, but oh well). Got everything in VFIFX (Vanguard Target Retirement 2050). Made a little over $4200 last year. Have contributed the max $24k since starting it and sitting on a bit over $30k.

403B
Got a bunch of different holdings in my Roth 403b through residency. Vanguard Institutional Fund, some more American Funds stuff, and some CREF equities. Had a 23.4% rate of return last year overall on this one. Up to just under $50k.

CRYPTOCURRENCY
I'm cheating a bit and counting the continued surge past New Year's. I bought in $4k to Bitcoin and Ethereum (83% Bitcoin, 17% Ethereum) back before the big surge at the end of 2017. That was at about $6k at the beginning of December (still not a bad ROI!) but is at this moment worth $13.6k. I'm not so bold/crazy/revolutionary/whatever as to think crypto is going to change the face of currency, and that in the future we'll all be using it to make actual purchases. But I do plan to hold on to what I've got until I retire, and I suspect it will be worth a good deal then.


Overall a very good year for my investments in a wide range of vehicles. My gold and silver continued to do well, and I still have some ancient savings bonds that I can't bring myself to cash in early because they're bringing in a guaranteed 4% for another couple years (even though I am well aware I would almost certainly make more than that if I put it into any of my other holdings; I'm a sucker for a little bit of guaranteed income).

Retirement holdings sitting currently at just under $143,000. I've got another 1.5 years of residency and hope to be around $225k by the end (I'll contribute $30k to Roth holdings this year and ~$21k in 2022 before finishing residency), so should hit that target. I'm "only" 30 and, while I should be on target to be able to live comfortably retiring at 50, I'm planning to wait it out until about 55 so we can live a little more high on the hog.
 
STOCKS
This was the first year I got into stocks. I've put in $5,200 since September, and it's currently sitting at just under $6,500. I own stock in 50 different companies, and overall it was a successful year in all sectors, with very few notable losers. 27 of my 50 stocks gained greater than 10% since my purchase, and of the other 23 I own, none of them are have lost 10%. My biggest loser was Nikola, which I finally got out of later than I should have. Biggest winners by percentage (all of which are up over 100%) have been Tesla (of course), Capri Holdings (Jimmy Choo, other luxury brands), and Chesapeake Energy (never going to reach anywhere near what it once was, but a sentimental pick I put a small amount in). Overall, my only regrets are not jumping on the crash in March and buying low, and not buying more Tesla. Alas, hindsight is 20/20.

MUTUAL FUNDS
I've had an Edward Jones mutual funds account with unused college money brewing for a while. A nice spread amongst CWGIX (American Capital World Growth), AMECX (American Inc Fund of America), and AIVSX (American Investment Funds). Came into the year at just over $44k, walked out with just over $49k.

ROTH IRA
Been contributing to the wife and my Roth IRA through Vanguard the last 2 years (wish we started earlier, but oh well). Got everything in VFIFX (Vanguard Target Retirement 2050). Made a little over $4200 last year. Have contributed the max $24k since starting it and sitting on a bit over $30k.

403B
Got a bunch of different holdings in my Roth 403b through residency. Vanguard Institutional Fund, some more American Funds stuff, and some CREF equities. Had a 23.4% rate of return last year overall on this one. Up to just under $50k.

CRYPTOCURRENCY
I'm cheating a bit and counting the continued surge past New Year's. I bought in $4k to Bitcoin and Ethereum (83% Bitcoin, 17% Ethereum) back before the big surge at the end of 2017. That was at about $6k at the beginning of December (still not a bad ROI!) but is at this moment worth $13.6k. I'm not so bold/crazy/revolutionary/whatever as to think crypto is going to change the face of currency, and that in the future we'll all be using it to make actual purchases. But I do plan to hold on to what I've got until I retire, and I suspect it will be worth a good deal then.


Overall a very good year for my investments in a wide range of vehicles. My gold and silver continued to do well, and I still have some ancient savings bonds that I can't bring myself to cash in early because they're bringing in a guaranteed 4% for another couple years (even though I am well aware I would almost certainly make more than that if I put it into any of my other holdings; I'm a sucker for a little bit of guaranteed income).

Retirement holdings sitting currently at just under $143,000. I've got another 1.5 years of residency and hope to be around $225k by the end (I'll contribute $30k to Roth holdings this year and ~$21k in 2022 before finishing residency), so should hit that target. I'm "only" 30 and, while I should be on target to be able to live comfortably retiring at 50, I'm planning to wait it out until about 55 so we can live a little more high on the hog.

Biggest mistake I made was not putting anything into the market when I was in residency. Good job.
 
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Biggest mistake I made was not putting anything into the market when I was in residency. Good job.
The roth 401k contributions (total 40k) I did in residency are worth over 250k now. Turn out getting old during a massive bull market is good for retirement.

In retrospect, I still think I should have blown that money on fun stuff instead though.
 
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The roth 401k contributions (total 40k) I did in residency are worth over 250k now. Turn out getting old during a massive bull market is good for retirement.

In retrospect, I still think I should have blown that money on fun stuff instead though.

You can blow it on fun stuff now.
 
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The roth 401k contributions (total 40k) I did in residency are worth over 250k now. Turn out getting old during a massive bull market is good for retirement.

In retrospect, I still think I should have blown that money on fun stuff instead though.
Think about that all the time. Overall, the "small" amount of money I make during residency is probably not going to mean much later on unless something goes south for me or the economy later on. For me it's not much of a choice though, can't bring myself to blow up money very easily, I'm just happy with my simple lifestyle.
 
As always, I am less than 60-70% in stocks, and that affects my returns (but radically improves my sleep). I am beginning to rebalance into developed non-US markets (maybe with a touch of emergent markets as in VXUS), and risk giving up even more returns, for multiple reasons:
- The US stock market bubble, especially for technology companies. For history buffs, this looks eerily like 1999-2000.
- The more and more worthless dollar. Our moment of reckoning is coming. One can't have a lot of money in circulation without inflation (the latter is one reason why the stock market is so overpriced).
- The coming US socialism. One can't outperform other countries if one makes the same mistakes as other countries. Our unique brand of capitalism is the main reason for our historic success.

There is a reason big and wise money (e.g. the Yale endowment) has diversified away from US stocks, or even foreign stocks. Now it's the time to learn to invest in alternatives (e.g. private REITs, which don't have to distribute 90% of their profits at the end of the year, like public ones).

Remember Japan. Past performance (even of a big developed market) is not a predictor of future performance. Being 100% in stocks may be OK with 30-50 years to go, but it can be a killer for shorter terms (1930s, WW2, Japan etc.). Things have a tendency to revert to the mean; stocks cannot grow faster long-term than the underlying businesses and economies, and losing 50% of the market value in a recession requires a 200% upturn just to get back to zero (if ignoring inflation). Rule #1 should be "never lose money".

Because of "quantitative easing" (i.e. delirious cheap money printing), the 60/40 stocks/bonds engine has been broken. Cash is truly becoming trash, but anything else is also risky. There is almost nothing that can guarantee even preservation of capital long-term (at current buying value). We can just hope we can outpace the coming inflation and economic downturn.
42% of all US Dollars in existence were created by the Fed in 2020. This, more than any other reason, explains the current bull market in assets: stocks, real estate, commodities.

The Federal Reserve balance sheet grew 73% in 2020. This is truly hard to believe.
 
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I always figured if the financial advisor was really that good, they wouldn’t still be working.
Financial advisors have a place.

It isn't to beat the market.

We have blind spots. They can help reveal them.

I suspect they are money psychologists.

I probably am saying this because I need one.
 
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Unless we have a good energy storage solution, or better, nuclear fusion.
Hydrogen is not a bad solution for "clean energy" storage.
Nuclear fusion, if it can be acheived will be the ruin of man kind: i don't think free limitless energy is what we sould strive for.
Imo we should be aiming for a global contraction instead of the never ending cycle of "growth".
 
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Hydrogen is not a bad solution for "clean energy" storage.
Nuclear fusion, if it can be acheived will be the ruin of man kind: i don't think free limitless energy is what we sould strive for.
Imo we should be aiming for a global contraction instead of the never ending cycle of "growth".
Hydrogen isnt as green as hyped up to be. If there is extra electricity lying around, which actually happens in california occasionally, hydrogen fuel cell is a good way to store the excess electricity since it has to be dumped and wasted anyways. But the conversion is something ridiculous like 50%, and a lot of the electricity is lost in the conversion process. There is a reason why Elon Musk called it a stupid technology.

Sure, once you have hydrogen fuel cell, it is zero emission and green energy from there, but the process of creating hydrogen is not green at all. The inefficient conversion also makes hydrogen much more expensive than battery charging system, which is used by Tesla.

IMO, renewable natural gas is the only true green energy that is carbon foot print free throughout the entire production and usage, but it is not getting any hype sadly.
 
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Hydrogen isnt as green as hyped up to be. If there is extra electricity lying around, which actually happens in california occasionally, hydrogen fuel cell is a good way to store the excess electricity since it has to be dumped and wasted anyways. But the conversion is something ridiculous like 50%, and a lot of the electricity is lost in the conversion process. There is a reason why Elon Musk called it a stupid technology.

Sure, once you have hydrogen fuel cell, it is zero emission and green energy from there, but the process of creating hydrogen is not green at all. The inefficient conversion also makes hydrogen much more expensive than battery charging system, which is used by Tesla.

IMO, renewable natural gas is the only true green energy that is carbon foot print free throughout the entire production and usage, but it is not getting any hype sadly.
I know all that, what i mean is if you have an excess production of domestic electricity, producing hydrogen with the surplus is not a bad idea. Producing hydrogen from fossil fuels doesn't make any sense.
 
You can blow it on fun stuff now.
That money won’t make a lick of difference in my life by the time I retire. I will work well beyond my “number” because I enjoy it. Not full time, of course, but still working.
 
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Guess who the RICHEST man in the world is? Unbelievable run up in his stock the past week.
I find these metrics disingenuous. He is only the richest man if he has that amount of cash in a more liquid form. If he tried to sell his entire share of Tesla to actually put that amount of cash in one place the stock price would collapse and wouldnt be worth anywhere near that.
 
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