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anbuitachi said:
the biggest concern is we are all betting that market will keep going up and up over long run.. because of our history in the past <100 years, which isnt even THAT long. my question is how do we know we arent just at teh upslope of something like japan's market?

View attachment 322676

it looked great for FOURTY years, it just kept going up. from 100 to 39000!! A 390x difference in 40 years. Since then, in the 30 years to follow, they have never reached that peak.

How do we know we arent simply on the upslope, with a flat/downward slope to come?
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are you aware of what Japan did in the decade immediately preceding? Also in what way does the US resemble 1980s Japan demographically or in terms of corporate culture?

Wake me up if the S&P quadruples in the next couple years while our population drops and our workforce contracts. Then I will back off a bit.
 
anbuitachi said:
the biggest concern is we are all betting that market will keep going up and up over long run.. because of our history in the past <100 years, which isnt even THAT long. my question is how do we know we arent just at teh upslope of something like japan's market?

View attachment 322676

it looked great for FOURTY years, it just kept going up. from 100 to 39000!! A 390x difference in 40 years. Since then, in the 30 years to follow, they have never reached that peak.

How do we know we arent simply on the upslope, with a flat/downward slope to come?
Click to expand...
People say there were many unique factors stemming from it being a small island nation and having limited real estate
 
1604929175336.png


Buy Stocks. Market is going to break out to new highs. Divided Government. Effective Vaccine. Stimulus package (ONLY 1 trillion?)
 
U.S. stock futures skyrocketed as investors cheered the news. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,492 points, implying an opening gain of more than 1,470 points. Airline and cruise company stocks jumped in premarket trading — with some stocks rising by 20% and 30%. Both industries have been particularly impacted by the global health crisis as travel restrictions and a resurgence in outbreaks that continue to hurt demand.



A more than 90% effective coronavirus vaccine would be roughly on par with one dose of a measles vaccination, which is about 93% effective, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Comparatively, the CDC says a vaccine for influenza reduces the risk of flu illness by between 40% to 60% among the overall population.
 
We are looking at a HUGE Run up in equities as much as 20% over the next 90 days. Nobody can predict how high stocks can go but this is a BULL MARKET going into 2021.
 
BLADEMDA said:
U.S. stock futures skyrocketed as investors cheered the news. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,492 points, implying an opening gain of more than 1,470 points. Airline and cruise company stocks jumped in premarket trading — with some stocks rising by 20% and 30%. Both industries have been particularly impacted by the global health crisis as travel restrictions and a resurgence in outbreaks that continue to hurt demand.



A more than 90% effective coronavirus vaccine would be roughly on par with one dose of a measles vaccination, which is about 93% effective, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Comparatively, the CDC says a vaccine for influenza reduces the risk of flu illness by between 40% to 60% among the overall population.
Click to expand...

Why do you post this crap blade? If current events could explain stock prices, everyone would know how it should react to any news. There's a reason that there are no funds that can beat the market consistently.
 
pgg said:
Are we waiting on a 30% dip from today's valuation or last week's?
Click to expand...

I am a buyer of stocks at these valuations particularly the LARGE VALUE group, International stocks and small caps. These groups have not experienced the massive valuation expansion of tech and large cap growth. Of course, I like the S and p 500 at these levels as well. I am even thinking of buying some energy stocks (ETF) when things cool down in a week or two. Energy is the most hated sector in the S and P 500. We will be fortunate to see any pullbacks over 3% from these levels in 2020. I guess bad news from the vaccine or the polls showing Dems winning both Senate seats in Georgia would be enough to cause a significant pull back. A new war breaking out would also likely cause a pullback.

As long as the FED remains dovish and the US govt. spends money the outlook for stocks looks favorable.
 
I overall also believe in the buy and hold index for awhile. I'm considering buying on Really Bad Days along the way

maybe that'll have a little more gain but could all be short term.

agree, this thread showed you can miss out huge. the biggest gains in your portfolio happen on these kinds of days, and you can miss them if you are trying to time the market.
 
sethco said:
Kind of the point, isn't it? All the time is a good buying time since market timing is extremely difficult, even for professionals
Click to expand...

the good time to buy stocks is when you have money to do so.
 
GassYous said:
I am still waiting for the market crash so I can put that dry powder into the market!
Click to expand...


Dry powder is fine but that should represent about 10-15% of your total position. This means 85-90% of your desired allocation into equities stays invested at all times. That's my strategy but I fully respect those who choose a 100% allocation each month through dollar cost averaging. Anyone who thinks he/she can time the market well enough over a long period of time (6 months) is being foolish. You need to be IN THE MARKET at all times to make money over the long run. What you can do is keep a small amount to the side for market corrections or recessions like I do. Others simply re-allocate from cash/bonds to stocks during those same periods while some just do it 1-2 times per year.

With interest rates paying the lowest in my lifetime my stock allocation is up over 60% and climbing. I am going with dividend paying stocks selling at reasonable valuations in contrast to high flying growth stocks (which I do own as well) as I increased my equity allocation.

One last point is that international stocks are very cheap right now. I'm continuing to buy international and emerging funds as part of my increase in equity allocation.
 
# of cases keeps going up each day, and tighter restriction seems imminent in most cities. Yet, the market keeps climbing. What do you guys make of it? Vaccines are very promising, and will start getting distributed soon, hopefully within 1-2 months, but that won't help with preventing another mini-shut down, NOW. I also doubt the congress will pass any stimulus package next 2 months.

Most of my IRA is in equity, but wondering if I should sell 20-30% of it to keep as dry powder in case of a dip.
 
JiPo said:
# of cases keeps going up each day, and tighter restriction seems imminent in most cities. Yet, the market keeps climbing. What do you guys make of it? Vaccines are very promising, and will start getting distributed soon, hopefully within 1-2 months, but that won't help with preventing another mini-shut down, NOW. I also doubt the congress will pass any stimulus package next 2 months.

Most of my IRA is in equity, but wondering if I should sell 20-30% of it to keep as dry powder in case of a dip.
Click to expand...

It's because the government pumped trillions into the economy and look poised to pump trillions more. Before they did that, the market was set to collapse. I think nothing productive will happen until trump is gone; it's just taking people time to realize it. Then it will be time to buy.
 
JiPo said:
# of cases keeps going up each day, and tighter restriction seems imminent in most cities. Yet, the market keeps climbing. What do you guys make of it? Vaccines are very promising, and will start getting distributed soon, hopefully within 1-2 months, but that won't help with preventing another mini-shut down, NOW. I also doubt the congress will pass any stimulus package next 2 months.

Most of my IRA is in equity, but wondering if I should sell 20-30% of it to keep as dry powder in case of a dip.
Click to expand...


Slim, ask yourself these questions: In 6 months from now will the economy be much better than it is today? Will most of the population that wants to be vaccinated against Covid 19 be fully vaccinated?

If you answer "yes" then the stock market is a buy today and not a sell. Sure, you can buy the dips but expecting a real correction in the next 90 days is highly unlikely. Now, in 3-4 months from now after the market has run-up from here I can see selling equities because of valuations. We can discuss that time when it happens.

Finally, tech stocks selling at HIGH valuations are seeing small corrections. The rally is likely to occur in VALUE stocks, small caps, emerging markets and international stocks. So, if you have NO EXPOSURE to value then yes, sell some of your tech winners and diversify into a value ETF from Vanguard, Schwab or Fidelity.

If like PGG you are holding an S and P 500 fund or Russell 1000 index fund then no selling is needed.

markets.businessinsider.com

Monday's mammoth shift to value stocks previews the market rotations coming next year, JPMorgan says

Monday's positive vaccine news drove the biggest one-day rotation to value stocks since 2008, but growth stocks are still overcrowded, the bank said.
markets.businessinsider.com markets.businessinsider.com


www.forbes.com

How To Buy Stocks

Stocks play a central role in an investment portfolio, so learning how to buy stocks is your first job as an investor. Between 1926 and 2021, a 100% stock portfolio returned an average 12.3% a year, according to Vanguard—nearly twice the return of an all-bond portfolio over the same period. Here’
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
 
Last edited:
deleted59964 said:
I've been timing the market this year for the first time in my life. So far it's working out in my favor.

I sold a lot as the pandemic hit - I was more pessimistic about it's world wide impact than most.
I then admittedly missed the bottom by a little, as I thought there was little reason for optimism.
But I got FOMO so I reinvested in covid resistant industries not far from the bottom.

I sold again last week, and went mainly into cash as I think the uncertainty of the election, and frankly the fact that the pandemic is going nuts again will cause another down turn.

I'll wait till I see signs of things picking up again and then I'll buy in
Click to expand...

S&P up 13% from this date.
 
dchz said:
I did consider that, hence I will buy in once Biden takes office as a time frame trigger
Click to expand...
So, did you get in at all or still waiting for him to take office?

If the market's up this high when he takes office, are you going to go against the previously anticipated "trigger"?
 
If you wanna time the market you gotta be right twice.. and what’s to say you’ll even be right the first time.. I’m sure we are all guilty of trying here and there but I sure as hell ain’t putting all the eggs in one basket..
 
secretasianman said:
If you wanna time the market you gotta be right twice.. and what’s to say you’ll even be right the first time.. I’m sure we are all guilty of trying here and there but I sure as hell ain’t putting all the eggs in one basket..
Click to expand...
If you buy a stock and hold for a long time, you are timing the market.

what a dumb statement - “time the market”.

we need a more precise term.

precision of thought, economy of words.
 
epidural man said:
If you buy a stock and hold for a long time, you are timing the market.

what a dumb statement - “time the market”.

we need a more precise term.

precision of thought, economy of words.
Click to expand...

This is silly. There's no need for more terms.

"Buy continually during working years" and "sell in retirement" isn't considered to be "timing" by anyone except pedants who are hell bent on making an exceptionally unhelpful literal interpretation of the word "time" as a thing that flows as we age. No ****, everything everyone does has an element of "time" to it.

Everyone understands that "market timing" means making short term buy & sell decisions based on perceived temporary conditions in the hopes of overperforming compared to the market as a whole.

And nearly everyone understands that "market timing" is far more likely to be a losing than a winning strategy, absent insider (illegal) information.

And most of us understand that "market timing" is completely unnecessary. This is the S&P 500 for the last year:

sp500.png

Anyone who did absolutely nothing except buy monthly did great this year. (Their pre-3/2020 buys are up a little, and their post-3/2020 buys are up a lot.)

Anyone who sold at some point and hasn't bought back in, has missed substantial gains.

These are facts.
 
pgg said:
This is silly. There's no need for more terms.

"Buy continually during working years" and "sell in retirement" isn't considered to be "timing" by anyone except pedants who are hell bent on making an exceptionally unhelpful literal interpretation of the word "time" as a thing that flows as we age. No ****, everything everyone does has an element of "time" to it.

Everyone understands that "market timing" means making short term buy & sell decisions based on perceived temporary conditions in the hopes of overperforming compared to the market as a whole.

And nearly everyone understands that "market timing" is far more likely to be a losing than a winning strategy, absent insider (illegal) information.

And most of us understand that "market timing" is completely unnecessary. This is the S&P 500 for the last year:

View attachment 324231
Anyone who did absolutely nothing except buy monthly did great this year. (Their pre-3/2020 buys are up a little, and their post-3/2020 buys are up a lot.)

Anyone who sold at some point and hasn't bought back in, has missed substantial gains.

These are facts.
Click to expand...
Understanding is one thing. Executing is another.
Put another way, almost everyone has the brain power to be a successful investor. Far fewer have the stomach for it.
 
pgg said:
This is silly. There's no need for more terms.

"Buy continually during working years" and "sell in retirement" isn't considered to be "timing" by anyone except pedants who are hell bent on making an exceptionally unhelpful literal interpretation of the word "time" as a thing that flows as we age. No ****, everything everyone does has an element of "time" to it.

Everyone understands that "market timing" means making short term buy & sell decisions based on perceived temporary conditions in the hopes of overperforming compared to the market as a whole.

And nearly everyone understands that "market timing" is far more likely to be a losing than a winning strategy, absent insider (illegal) information.

And most of us understand that "market timing" is completely unnecessary. This is the S&P 500 for the last year:

View attachment 324231
Anyone who did absolutely nothing except buy monthly did great this year. (Their pre-3/2020 buys are up a little, and their post-3/2020 buys are up a lot.)

Anyone who sold at some point and hasn't bought back in, has missed substantial gains.

These are facts.
Click to expand...
If you buy now, in hopes that the market rises - you are predicting that past performance predicts future performance. That is timing the market.

Is it pedantic? Maybe. But my point is to not be so critical of someone who decides that their guess that past performance based on certain events has moved markets in a certain way - so they make a decision to play the market in this way. I see no difference in this then the person who says "the market over time always rises, so just put money in and hope that when you need to take it out, it is higher than when you started."

It seems the same to me.
 
epidural man said:
If you buy now, in hopes that the market rises - you are predicting that past performance predicts future performance. That is timing the market.

Is it pedantic? Maybe. But my point is to not be so critical of someone who decides that their guess that past performance based on certain events has moved markets in a certain way - so they make a decision to play the market in this way. I see no difference in this then the person who says "the market over time always rises, so just put money in and hope that when you need to take it out, it is higher than when you started."

It seems the same to me.
Click to expand...
This is... Just no.
 
epidural man said:
If you buy now, in hopes that the market rises - you are predicting that past performance predicts future performance. That is timing the market.

Is it pedantic? Maybe. But my point is to not be so critical of someone who decides that their guess that past performance based on certain events has moved markets in a certain way - so they make a decision to play the market in this way. I see no difference in this then the person who says "the market over time always rises, so just put money in and hope that when you need to take it out, it is higher than when you started."

It seems the same to me.
Click to expand...

What are you talking about? Everyone knows that there's no guarantee that the market will always rise. But you do put money in hoping it goes up.
 
epidural man said:
If you buy now, in hopes that the market rises - you are predicting that past performance predicts future performance. That is timing the market.

Is it pedantic? Maybe. But my point is to not be so critical of someone who decides that their guess that past performance based on certain events has moved markets in a certain way - so they make a decision to play the market in this way. I see no difference in this then the person who says "the market over time always rises, so just put money in and hope that when you need to take it out, it is higher than when you started."

It seems the same to me.
Click to expand...
It's not 🙂 but I don't know how else to express my disagreement, so I'll just say this:

Either you believe the US and world economy will continue to grow and produce goods and wealth for humanity as a whole over the next few decades, or you don't.

If you do, investing in index funds that track that growth will create wealth for you. It is sensible and doesn't require any timing.

If you don't, then there are larger problems and you should probably be investing in non-perishable food, some ammunition, and a secure compound to live in, because a decades-long contraction in GDP is incompatible with civilization. In that case, how you time or don't time purchases in your IRA is less important than avoiding the attention of roving biker gangs searching for gasoline and the last cans of chili ever made.

Maybe there's a happy medium where you hedge your bets a little and you invest in a 401(k) and a Glock, and plan for a long boring retirement in a world where civilization mostly keeps on ticking. In this scenario, betting that you know more than the market, or to borrow an oft-quoted adage, thinking you can remain solvent longer than the market can remain irrational, is unwise.
 
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