application numbers this year

[Xerxes1729]

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I've noticed that most of the rejections I've received have mentioned an "unprecedented" number of applicants this year. Do you think there's any truth to this, or is it just something they say to ease the pain of rejection? Maryland, for example, said they received over 1000 applications. Last year, there were 2055 applicants in total for all EM positions. So unless the number of applicants is way up, half of all the people applying in EM applied to Maryland. That seems crazy to me. That would be similar for some of the other programs that quoted numbers.

 

[Tiger26]

I think it's true--heard between 20-25% increase this year

 

[EMRocksmyworld]

I think it's true--heard between 20-25% increase this year

I heard that applications are up 25-30%, and that the applicants are much stronger (in terms of Board Scores, AOA, etc). The PD I spoke with said there's been a general upward trend but she thinks this is a "spike year..". Apparently students have applied to more programs per person than ever before too.

 

[pseudoknot]

This sort of thing has been claimed for pretty much every specialty, every year, since I've been on SDN, and usually isn't verified when the real numbers come out. So I'm very skeptical. But, it does seem like a pretty harsh year in EM...

 

[The White Coat Investor]

I've noticed that most of the rejections I've received have mentioned an "unprecedented" number of applicants this year. Do you think there's any truth to this, or is it just something they say to ease the pain of rejection? Maryland, for example, said they received over 1000 applications. Last year, there were 2055 applicants in total for all EM positions. So unless the number of applicants is way up, half of all the people applying in EM applied to Maryland. That seems crazy to me. That would be similar for some of the other programs that quoted numbers.

2055!? That seems a lot higher than when I applied 8 years ago. How many spots are there? 1500 or so? That's like a 75% match rate. That's like what ortho and ophtho have (but not as bad as derm.) It was 93% back when I applied, at least for US grads.

 

[alwaysaangel]

http://www.nrmp.org/data/chartingoutcomes2009v3.pdf
http://www.nrmp.org/data/resultsanddata2010.pdf

Its not that bad.

In 2010 there were 1556 positions.
1340 US Seniors
2055 Total applicants
Only 76% of spots were filled with US applicants.
99% were filled overall

So, as of last year there were still more spots than applicants.

Not only that but the number of EM positions has been rising about 6% per year since 2006 (from 1251 in 2006 to 1556 in 2010). Given the number of growing and new programs I have heard of I expect that number to rise similarly this year.

The number of applicants has been rising similarly (doesn't give applicant numbers but gives filled numbers from 944 US grads in 2006 to 1051 US grads in 2009)

And Charting Outcomes 2009 still shows that US graduates applying to EM who ranked 10 or more programs to be greater than 98%.

Yes, its becoming a larger more popular specialty and is getting more competitive.

And yes, I get that this thread was just to discuss the numbers this year and allow for speculation. I'm just putting some hard number from last year out there because I don't want people reading these threads to freak out that they're not going to match or something. There is no evidence that this year is going to be absurdly competitive.

If we do the math under the assumptions in this thread:
1340 US applicants last year with a 20% increase = 1600 US applicants this year.
1556 programs last year with the consistent 6% increase in spots = 1650

Getting very close but still more spots than US applicants.

 

[gutonc]

Here's a question...how long before EM starts to look like Pathology?

5-10 years ago, everybody and their dog was going into Path because the hours were sweet, no clinic (hell...if you work it right, no patients at all), your ability to make money was limited only by how fast you could push glass and as long as you could still see (more or less) you could work. So now there are lots of path grads and no jobs to be had. New grads are doing 2 or 3 one year fellowships just so they can compete to get a job.

Granted, EM does have a more limited practice lifetime than pathology, but that's only going be an issue in 20 years or so when the first crop of EM trained attendings starts to realize how much their backs hurt at the end of a shift and call it a day. How long before the # of residency grads outstrips the available jobs?

 

[Antibodies]

Here's a question...how long before EM starts to look like Pathology?

5-10 years ago, everybody and their dog was going into Path because the hours were sweet, no clinic (hell...if you work it right, no patients at all), your ability to make money was limited only by how fast you could push glass and as long as you could still see (more or less) you could work. So now there are lots of path grads and no jobs to be had. New grads are doing 2 or 3 one year fellowships just so they can compete to get a job.

Granted, EM does have a more limited practice lifetime than pathology, but that's only going be an issue in 20 years or so when the first crop of EM trained attendings starts to realize how much their backs hurt at the end of a shift and call it a day. How long before the # of residency grads outstrips the available jobs?

Doesn't this question apply to all specialties that are having an increase in applicants?
Plus there is a continues increase in ER utilization which will only get worse (likely).

 

[drsaahill]

I personally do not believe that there has been a drastic increase in the number of applicants. I am an IMG applying for the second time, I am receiving the same rejection emails from the programs that they send me last year (Even the numbers are same, .... this year we have received 850... 1000 applicants which is much higher.... blah blah). As the thread starter says, I believe it is just to "ease the pain of rejection."

This year the number of positions going in for match is 1610
This is 56 more positions than last year. (Source: NRMP)

 

[gutonc]

Doesn't this question apply to all specialties that are having an increase in applicants?
Plus there is a continues increase in ER utilization which will only get worse (likely).

To a degree, yes. But if the numbers quoted above are correct (~25% increase in applicants this year), the increase in EM is much greater than other specialties. Also, it seems like more new EM residency programs are coming online at a faster rate than other specialties. This may very well not be the case and it may be that the job market will keep ahead of the number of new grads. But when I see how hard it is for my friends to find EM jobs after graduation in this particular market (Portland, OR), I wonder how long before other places catch up.

 

[doctorFred]

To a degree, yes. But if the numbers quoted above are correct (~25% increase in applicants this year), the increase in EM is much greater than other specialties. Also, it seems like more new EM residency programs are coming online at a faster rate than other specialties. This may very well not be the case and it may be that the job market will keep ahead of the number of new grads. But when I see how hard it is for my friends to find EM jobs after graduation in this particular market (Portland, OR), I wonder how long before other places catch up.

EM is still a growing specialty, with growing popularity, but the notion that it is significantly more competitive this year stinks of match paranoia. and portland happens to be a very desirable area. supply and demand makes all of those markets tougher - nyc, seattle, la, etc.

 

[Disinence2]

One of the Program Directors was speaking about this at a recent interview. He said that although there was a slight increase this year, he and his program director friends have concluded this is more due to students applying to significantly more programs this year, instead of there being significantly more applicants.

Apparently the average person applied to 30 programs this year! I thought I was applying to a lot with my 20!