AVMA workforce projections (2024)

[Mr.Smile12]

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Newly released data suggest that the growing number of veterinarians in the United States may eventually outpace future demand for veterinary services.

Chart of the Month: No dire shortage of veterinarians ahead

Newly released data suggest that the growing number of veterinarians in the United States may eventually outpace future demand for veterinary services.

www.avma.org

 

[supershorty]

Entirely unsurprising. And exactly why opening all these new programs is a terrible idea.

 

[battie]

#calledit

 

[Kirb]

Could this mean a higher proportion of veterinarians will be pushed to careers/specialties outside of small animal clinical work (e.g. large animal, lab animal, public health, etc.)?

 

[VeggieTrex]

Could this mean a higher proportion of veterinarians will be pushed to careers/specialties outside of small animal clinical work (e.g. large animal, lab animal, public health, etc.)?

In an ideal world, yes probably. In actual reality, I wouldn't hold my breath on that. People will potentially get more creative out of necessity, but it wont be pretty at all. It's not like the pay is going to get better, that's for sure.

 

[JaynaAli]

Could this mean a higher proportion of veterinarians will be pushed to careers/specialties outside of small animal clinical work (e.g. large animal, lab animal, public health, etc.)?

Maybe a little bit, but those fields also have a capacity limit and only so much room for growth…and actually I’d wager that there’s less room for those to expand than small animal med. There’s only so much need in those smaller niche fields. They could absorb a few but not the kinds of numbers that are being talked about when you’re talking about a 30% increase in grads year after year for eternity. Or with large animal, the need may be there but the wages aren’t sustainable for many people…especially not to support new grads who went to these crazy expensive programs and owe 350-500k in student loans. In regards to specialty training, even that doesn’t guarantee them a position in the end. My field of pathology has been at equilibrium for quite a while…people don’t struggle to find jobs after boards but you may not necessarily get your ideal position. But if we had an influx of people wanting to pursue pathology because they couldn’t get a job in small animal medicine, we can only grow so much and then you’re faced with people who have spent even more years training and going further into debt with nothing/no job to show for it. I imagine lab animal would be very similar. Plus for specialties specifically, the number of residency positions is the gatekeeper of how many specialists you put out. Most places aren’t going to add more training positions if the field can’t sustain it (and ethically I think we shouldn’t), and if they do add training positions it takes a couple years to budget and implement, plus 3-4 years for those trainees to finish the program and enter the workforce, so it’d be 5-6 years before there’s even be a slight increase in available specialists. And who knows what the market would be like 6 years later. It would just make it more competitive for the residency positions that are out there.

More likely what’ll happen is new grads will struggle to find jobs and existing veterinarians would likely see wages, benefits, and overall quality of work life stagnate, because corporate won’t give you as much of a raise or address your complaints because they know there’s a pool of desperate unemployed new grads willing to take your job for less pay. Things like signing bonuses would almost certainly go away or at least get drastically reduced if we switch to an “employers market” where they have multiple applicants for a single job.

 

[battie]

Look up concerns in 2008 and 2009. That's probably what's going to happen.

Ideally the new schools will be put on hold and current schools will stop expanding classes.

 

[pp9]

Could this mean a higher proportion of veterinarians will be pushed to careers/specialties outside of small animal clinical work (e.g. large animal, lab animal, public health, etc.)?

Echoing what Jayna said, vet med as a whole isn't endlessly growing like human medicine (as a whole) is. I think we will run out of jobs, across all specialties, rather than 'find a place for everyone.'

Unfortunately, I worry that the timing of this bottleneck will happen alongside an economic downturn. I'm not a political/economic whiz by any means, but I think we all feel something coming. There may be a need for vets in certain fields now, but if animal owners don't have money to spend, it won't matter.

 

[battie]

I'm not a political/economic whiz by any means, but I think we all feel something coming.

I love politics and there's a place in the multiverse where there's a Battie, JD who is probably trying to work her way through politics.

With that being said, no one is making any solid predictions right now until after the election is done. To be fair, most of the economic plans people are promising are false hopes without Congress. But we'll see.

 

[VeggieTrex]

I may or may not have checked where my husband's company has locations globally against AVMA international vet schools. It's weird out rn and I won't breathe easy until after November.

 

[DVM882029]

I may or may not have checked where my husband's company has locations globally against AVMA international vet schools. It's weird out rn and I won't breathe easy until after November.

I've scouted some international backup plans too, looking at UK and Aus schools.

 

[Mr.Smile12]

Random question: is the current political landscape -- especially at the state level -- influencing decisions to apply outside the US for vet school (or picking where you want to go post-graduation)? This is "easier" for you than those who aspire to human medicine, but we are seeing a shift in interest in certain opportunities based on state regulation of health access, such as...

Nowhere to Go: Maternity Care Deserts Across the US

Over 35% of US counties are maternity care deserts, affecting over 2.3 million women. Learn how limited access to maternal care leads to poorer health outcomes for moms and babies.

www.marchofdimes.org

as reported in

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/10/health/maternity-care-crisis-march-of-dimes/index.html

 

[VeggieTrex]

Random question: is the current political landscape -- especially at the state level -- influencing decisions to apply outside the US for vet school (or picking where you want to go post-graduation)? This is "easier" for you than those who aspire to human medicine, but we are seeing a shift in interest in certain opportunities based on state regulation of health access, such as...

Nowhere to Go: Maternity Care Deserts Across the US

Over 35% of US counties are maternity care deserts, affecting over 2.3 million women. Learn how limited access to maternal care leads to poorer health outcomes for moms and babies.

www.marchofdimes.org

as reported in

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/10/health/maternity-care-crisis-march-of-dimes/index.html

Yes. I live in IL and could reasonably look at surrounding schools, but seeing the current political landscape those are not even in consideration. Granted I'm very non traditional (Husband with a job he has to stay in for a few years (they paid for his Masters), own my own house) which makes it hard to look elsewhere anyway. I think we'd probably move internationally before considering me going to Perdue or Mizzou. Of course, we've been passively been talking about that for almost 9 years but still.

Also laws passed about human med can and do affect vet med. From clients having to chose between their care and their pets to veterinary drugs caught in the persistent 'war on drugs'. If FDA approval for a med on the human side goes away, it may on the vet side too. It's a good thing for me, maybe, that I have to big pause on vet med goals for the next year or so to let the dust settle. We'll see in just over a week if I'm going to start running the math on getting the house sell-able.

 

[VeggieTrex]

Coming back to add on climate change will also be a massive factor within the next 5 years. Florida, specifically, will just keep getting more intense back to back hurricanes, Louisiana and Mississippi will probably see those affects too. It is not something to take lightly, especially once the insurance market collapses. Droughts out west will get worse, meaning more intense fires. I'll be honest haven't kept up with what's happen in the northeast, but I'm sure things will. Midwest will also see stronger storms, more flooding, but at least the Great Lakes exist!

 

[Cowsrcool]

Random question: is the current political landscape -- especially at the state level -- influencing decisions to apply outside the US for vet school (or picking where you want to go post-graduation)? This is "easier" for you than those who aspire to human medicine, but we are seeing a shift in interest in certain opportunities based on state regulation of health access, such as...

Nowhere to Go: Maternity Care Deserts Across the US

Over 35% of US counties are maternity care deserts, affecting over 2.3 million women. Learn how limited access to maternal care leads to poorer health outcomes for moms and babies.

www.marchofdimes.org

as reported in

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/10/health/maternity-care-crisis-march-of-dimes/index.html

I’d say 75% of the people I know who applied and got into vet school last cycle went to an international school (and they were accepted to US and international so they deliberately chose international) many citing the political sphere as a strong reason to WANT to leave the US

 

[deleted1197566]

I think this is sadly what happened with pharmacy schools about 10 years ago. They opened too many too fast and there were not enough jobs to keep up. Then, new grads started making $20k less than the previous new grads 10 years earlier were making. I believe the pharmacy world is leveling out again (new grad to job ratio) but, it caused people to accept horrible conditions in the fear of not being able to find a new job if they quit.
I am terrified of this happening to vet medicine but is there anything we can actually do? I am all ears if so

 

[battie]

I think this is sadly what happened with pharmacy schools about 10 years ago. They opened too many too fast and there were not enough jobs to keep up. Then, new grads started making $20k less than the previous new grads 10 years earlier were making. I believe the pharmacy world is leveling out again (new grad to job ratio) but, it caused people to accept horrible conditions in the fear of not being able to find a new job if they quit.
I am terrified of this happening to vet medicine but is there anything we can actually do? I am all ears if so

Involvement with the legislature is important! CO fought this proposition originally in the legislature. These groups tried to get a bill passed through our state Congress, but was blocked because congressional leadership saw how horribly unpopular it was with the profession. The only reason the proposition got through is due to a citizen initiative. Some states don't have that, so in some states, this MLP would have failed.

For vet schools, can still contact legislatures as they provide the funding for state schools. Likewise, contacting the state VMA and AVMA state representative to express that opening schools in your state (if your state has a proposed inappropriate school) is a poor decision. Preventing private schools from opening is hard though ever since the AVMA lost the Western University law suit