Back to basics WW again

[Abnerrs]

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It is kinda interesting that everyone who has voted for Abs has been wolf killed (if I read those lynches right). I'm not sure it's compelling, but it's ... notable.

Abs' gameplay has stepped up the last 96 hours, though, and I'm trying to give her the benefit of the doubt.

I think Ally and WZ are both cleared by voting. I didn't look at the actual progression with with that 5/4 vote cdoconn/Jil, that would have been a pretty darn cocky move for either of them to sit on Jil when one move would have swung that to a day 1 wolf lynch.

The D2 voting is hard to interpret. I think the wolves were sitting there knowing that a wolf was going down (Jil or Raf), and which one was more or less out of their control, so I wouldn't read too much into either vote.

Ditto D3.

Unless you think I'm an idiot, you should know better than to think I'd kill someone just because they voted for me.

 

[LetItSnow]

Unless you think I'm an idiot, you should know better than to think I'd kill someone just because they voted for me.

Eh. They weren't killed immediately. And it is odd. I can see a wolf pack trying to get ahead of things and thinking longer-term and trying to take out some of the people more 'prominently' suspicious, especially when Jil/raf/Zen were so quick to go down.

Like I said, you've been swinging villager pretty steadily the last few days. It was just an observation.

And I don't think you're an idiot. But that kind of defense is circular and therefore not useful.

 

[LetItSnow]

I'm gonna placeholder vote:

lynch finnick

 

[Abnerrs]

Eh. They weren't killed immediately. And it is odd. I can see a wolf pack trying to get ahead of things and thinking longer-term and trying to take out some of the people more 'prominently' suspicious, especially when Jil/raf/Zen were so quick to go down.

Like I said, you've been swinging villager pretty steadily the last few days. It was just an observation.

And I don't think you're an idiot. But that kind of defense is circular and therefore not useful.

I don't agree. I would hope people would be smarter than that!

 

[PippyPony]

Unless you think I'm an idiot, you should know better than to think I'd kill someone just because they voted for me.

Eh. They weren't killed immediately. And it is odd. I can see a wolf pack trying to get ahead of things and thinking longer-term and trying to take out some of the people more 'prominently' suspicious, especially when Jil/raf/Zen were so quick to go down.

Like I said, you've been swinging villager pretty steadily the last few days. It was just an observation.

And I don't think you're an idiot. But that kind of defense is circular and therefore not useful.

Overall, I read the pattern in the kills as a more emphatic way of trying to shift suspicion on to Abnerrs, versus her being retaliatory.

The only one that potentially stood out to me as odd was the circling back on to Dr. S., because it felt less "hey! keep being suspicious of Abnerrs!" due to the time lapse.

But I mean, sample size is 2.

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[LetItSnow]

I don't agree. I would hope people would be smarter than that!

You don't agree about you swinging villager?

Or about you not being an idiot?

Which? 🙂

 

[Abnerrs]

You don't agree about you swinging villager?

Or about you not being an idiot?

Which? 🙂

Omg. I don't agree that it isn't helpful!

I'm done with you.

 

[Trilt]

Pretty sure if I was a wolf I would have stayed voting for Jil considering she was very obviously going to be lynched. Easier to hide that way. So I don't think my waffling there is inherently wolfy.

Just in case this lynch starts gaining momentum, I'd like to make a comment to hopefully help future village. Ally's last few posts have been almost exclusively grilling me, which I find quite wolfy. I am apparently a sketchy-seeming villager (under the radar, exceedingly neutral, all of the things you guys have said in the last little while), so it would be very easy to lead a lynch brigade against me to try and draw attention away from lynching fellow wolves. So when I flip village (which I will) I hope you guys take a hard look at Ally as wolfy.

Yes, apparently I had similar analysis as Jilary, and I decided not to lynch her because of it. I was rused, plain and simple. As I mentioned previously, a smart wolf wouldn't have been so openly waffling over voting for another wolf, because it would look sketchy. They would have stayed with the lynch and rode it out. So either I'm a really dumb wolf, or I'm legitimate village who was uncertain about whether I was lynching a fellow villager. If I hadn't unlynched, you would have been calling me out as a wolf hiding in the bandwagon and having similar views to another wolf. Since I did unlynch, now I'm a wolf for waffling and happening to share the same views as a confirmed wolf. There was literally no way for me to win in this situation 😛

So yeah. I'm village, I apparently play sketchy and happened to have similar thoughts as a wolf. Doesn't make me any less of a villager, though 🙁

Honestly, I had that lynch as a ping toward village for you, but now that you've taken the time to point out "hey guys a wolf totally wouldn't have done that!" the ping that way is gone.

A big ole "meh" to your ally statement. If posts grilling people is wolfy, well, lynch me.

You are wayyyyy overthinking me (which is fine lol). I was asking Trilt about the plurality thing because it honestly came off weird to me that her excuse for not voting was that she didn't want to hit plurality. Idk with such long day cycles where we are pretty near the deadline anyway and everyone is pretty much in agreement that a certain person is likely a wolf, that seems like a weird thing to say. Trilt doesn't read wolf to me, but honestly is kind of surprises me that the wolves haven't gone after her. So that whole thing about not wanting to hit plurality just came off weird to me.

SARS vote not for Jil was strange but I kinda forgot she died lol, clearly it meant nothing...

You and I both girlie. I keep being surprised to be alive in the morning, and you have no idea what it's doing to my feelings on my theories ("are they just leaving me alive because I'm totally wrong and going to push villager lynches? are they leaving me alive because they want me to think that? ahhhhhhhhhhh.")

(Sigh).

Like I said, it was on surfacey stuff, but:



I liked the aggression of getting people talking. The majority of wolves in pre-vet games play a quiet game, except for some of us who are pretty loud either way.



Ditto - liked the aggression of pushing cdoconn.



Same as above - still pushing a consistent line. In retrospect, if Ski is village, this would have been an easy line for Zensing to take as a wolf since either way it goes is 'acceptable' to the wolves. But at the time, I liked the tone.



I was not at all thrilled with the cdoconn thing rolled out. Since it was a verifiable role, I would have waited a day to test. That was the thing that really kept me on STL's ass for the next few days since I viewed him as really pushing that cdoconn lynch over the edge. Conversely, I liked that Zensing did basically what I would have done. 🙂

I didn't catch it at the time, but interesting comment on raf buried in there. Zensing is more sly than I realized.



There were a bunch of other quotes Zensing had in between there, but the bottom line was that I liked the post-lynch and post-night analysis. It just read villager to me, especially for a pre-vet game.

Somewhere not too much longer after that is when I finally started posting.

My take on kcoughli was similar to Zen: Was playing hard, pushing on people, trying to dissect people's play - to me that's villager work.

But the last 3-4 (real) days has suddenly gone radio silent except for a few "hey, sorry, school got busy" kinda posts. You know me - that kinda thing ALWAYS makes me nervous. Might be true (sure is for me sometimes), but it can also be a wolf who is starting to feel nervous or backed into a corner and is pulling a deer in the headlights move.

So early on I was pretty confident kcoughli was village. Now I'm starting to have second thoughts.

You have such a poor opinion on pre-vet games.

So apologies for my lack of participation the last couple days/last cycle. I was trying to keep up but essentially just got busy with school and time got away from me. I am planning on rereading Day 1 right now (with our known wolves and villagers in mind) and let you all know what I think. Then hopefully move on to Day 2 and 3 (and 4? what day is it?). Stay tuned.

I'm very curious about your thoughts, especially after being somewhat removed from things for a couple days. Don't forget. 😛

 

[LetItSnow]

I think both of you are making too much of my comments. If you read them correctly, you'll see where I even said "Like I said, you've been swinging villager pretty steadily the last few days. It was just an observation.".....

 

[Abnerrs]

Omg. I don't agree that it isn't helpful!

I'm done with you.

To clarify I didn't really agree with the whole comment. I felt my original was totally warranted.

 

[LetItSnow]

Omg. I don't agree that it isn't helpful!

I'm done with you.

Not my fault you quote something with three separate comments and just say "I don't agree" without being specific. 🙂

 

[Abnerrs]

Not my fault you quote something with three separate comments and just say "I don't agree" without being specific. 🙂

Alright fine. I'll concede this point to you...

Why do you always put smilies on your comments to me???

 

[KCgophervet]

Okay halfway through rereading Day 1 I got suckered into watching John Wick (no one warned me, so of course I cried a lot) but I'm back and done rereading day 1. Here's my feels:

DAY 1:
1. Trilt - first to jump on raf for wishy washy voting (1 post). Obviously she was right, but honestly I didn't see the sketch factor. Not inconceivable to bus another wolf D1, though I'm guessing this was more of knowing raf's usual playstyle and this post not fitting? Anyway, hit my radar, don't really think Trilt is a wolf, but still found that interaction strange.

2. WZ - Lots of posts where I found myself agreeing with her statements. Only off thing I noticed was when she jokingly? chided people for wanting to stop talking about the cdo busy IRL vs checking thread stuff. Leans village.

3. SkiO - aggressively going after cdo for questionable reasons. Thinking back on what happened with the Zen theory, wondering if wolves could have a seer that gained N0 intel on a player?? knowing cdo was a power role, getting her lynched would be a great move for wolves. Also had quite a few distracting fluff posts early game (enough that I wrote a note about it in my freshly created spreadsheet). Leaning more wolfy for me after reread.

4. Coopah - got marks in both categories for me after D1 reread. Her first votes almost exactly followed now known wolf votes (first raf's vote on ally, then switched to cdo after Zen voted that way claiming self pres but at that point it was still the first day of D1 and she only had 3 votes). Has she been a wolf before? She also switched off Jil later to go back on cdo, which I know a few people did following STL but yeah. Mark in the village column are that Zen voted for her. Leaning wolfy to me.

5. Abs - found myself agreeing with a lot of her (non-fluff) posts. Also did note that STL mentioned her playstyle felt different. There was also a strange little conversation right at the beginning when people were discussing the possibility of conversion where she, raf, and Jil all mentioned hating having converts in basics games or hating to find converts, etc. On reread felt a little forced, almost like a bunch of wolves trying to convince villagers there'd be no converts. Made me nervous and kept Abs in wolf-leaning territory.

6. Pippy - got feels all over the place on reread. First she mentioned not being sure she'd hit the post requirement (granted I'm legit guilty of not meeting it and I stated I might miss it one day, but it still rubbed me the wrong way - and I think WZ called her out for it as well). Also called out Finn for deflecting the conversation when she (Finn) wasn't in any way doing so (pippy had just RNG voted for her, and Finn shortly after voted for someone else). Was a really weird interaction. Finally, near the end she was pushing the cdo lynch after knowing cdo had claimed a role, yet didn't actually change her own vote (like she didn't want to get caught?). I don't know but like I said before, it gave me all the feels. Wolf lean.

Okay I have some minor notes on other players but those were my personal biggest takeaways from Day 1. Intending to go through the next couple days as well but man, analysis is exhausting.

 

[Trilt]

Overall, I read the pattern in the kills as a more emphatic way of trying to shift suspicion on to Abnerrs, versus her being retaliatory.

The only one that potentially stood out to me as odd was the circling back on to Dr. S., because it felt less "hey! keep being suspicious of Abnerrs!" due to the time lapse.

But I mean, sample size is 2.

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Think this is somewhat of a leap. And I'm seriously not convinced that the wolves had two kills tbh... I mean, I guess all their kills have been weird, but the Ny kill early on still feels like STL more than wolves. She's the perfect mid-game scapegoat vote, as a wolf I'd never knock her out early.

 

[LetItSnow]

You have such a poor opinion on pre-vet games.

Actually, I've been super super pleased with play for the last ... I dunno ... several games now. I feel like some of the newer players are really playing. But for a long time there was just so much emphasis on "certainty" with so many people unwilling to commit to lynches because of either "vanilla - don't have info - RNG" or "gosh, we haven't really SEERED that person, so it just seems so unfair" etc etc.... That was getting super old.

 

[LetItSnow]

Alright fine. I'll concede this point to you...

Why do you always put smilies on your comments to me???

Because I like you. And I'm smiling when I tease you.

 

[Abnerrs]

Okay halfway through rereading Day 1 I got suckered into watching John Wick (no one warned me, so of course I cried a lot) but I'm back and done rereading day 1. Here's my feels:

DAY 1:
1. Trilt - first to jump on raf for wishy washy voting (1 post). Obviously she was right, but honestly I didn't see the sketch factor. Not inconceivable to bus another wolf D1, though I'm guessing this was more of knowing raf's usual playstyle and this post not fitting? Anyway, hit my radar, don't really think Trilt is a wolf, but still found that interaction strange.

2. WZ - Lots of posts where I found myself agreeing with her statements. Only off thing I noticed was when she jokingly? chided people for wanting to stop talking about the cdo busy IRL vs checking thread stuff. Leans village.

3. SkiO - aggressively going after cdo for questionable reasons. Thinking back on what happened with the Zen theory, wondering if wolves could have a seer that gained N0 intel on a player?? knowing cdo was a power role, getting her lynched would be a great move for wolves. Also had quite a few distracting fluff posts early game (enough that I wrote a note about it in my freshly created spreadsheet). Leaning more wolfy for me after reread.

4. Coopah - got marks in both categories for me after D1 reread. Her first votes almost exactly followed now known wolf votes (first raf's vote on ally, then switched to cdo after Zen voted that way claiming self pres but at that point it was still the first day of D1 and she only had 3 votes). Has she been a wolf before? She also switched off Jil later to go back on cdo, which I know a few people did following STL but yeah. Mark in the village column are that Zen voted for her. Leaning wolfy to me.

5. Abs - found myself agreeing with a lot of her (non-fluff) posts. Also did note that STL mentioned her playstyle felt different. There was also a strange little conversation right at the beginning when people were discussing the possibility of conversion where she, raf, and Jil all mentioned hating having converts in basics games or hating to find converts, etc. On reread felt a little forced, almost like a bunch of wolves trying to convince villagers there'd be no converts. Made me nervous and kept Abs in wolf-leaning territory.

6. Pippy - got feels all over the place on reread. First she mentioned not being sure she'd hit the post requirement (granted I'm legit guilty of not meeting it and I stated I might miss it one day, but it still rubbed me the wrong way - and I think WZ called her out for it as well). Also called out Finn for deflecting the conversation when she (Finn) wasn't in any way doing so (pippy had just RNG voted for her, and Finn shortly after voted for someone else). Was a really weird interaction. Finally, near the end she was pushing the cdo lynch after knowing cdo had claimed a role, yet didn't actually change her own vote (like she didn't want to get caught?). I don't know but like I said before, it gave me all the feels. Wolf lean.

Okay I have some minor notes on other players but those were my personal biggest takeaways from Day 1. Intending to go through the next couple days as well but man, analysis is exhausting.

Coverts ARE a pain in the ass. If that is why you have me as a wolf you seem to be reaching.

Got it.

 

[LetItSnow]

5. Abs - found myself agreeing with a lot of her (non-fluff) posts. Also did note that STL mentioned her playstyle felt different. There was also a strange little conversation right at the beginning when people were discussing the possibility of conversion where she, raf, and Jil all mentioned hating having converts in basics games or hating to find converts, etc. On reread felt a little forced, almost like a bunch of wolves trying to convince villagers there'd be no converts. Made me nervous and kept Abs in wolf-leaning territory.

I felt like it made sense in the context of the most recent game, where the wolves converted me (a crappy choice) and I threw a hissy fit about my usual dislike of being converted.

 

[Abnerrs]

Think this is somewhat of a leap. And I'm seriously not convinced that the wolves had two kills tbh... I mean, I guess all their kills have been weird, but the Ny kill early on still feels like STL more than wolves. She's the perfect mid-game scapegoat vote, as a wolf I'd never knock her out early.

Then what is your theory about the second night with 2 deaths?

 

[Animal Midwife]

I didn't see any converts in the last game. Is there any reason to believe they'll be in this one?

 

[KCgophervet]

Coverts ARE a pain in the ass. If that is why you have me as a wolf you seem to be reaching.

Got it.

Just on reread, knowing Jil and raf were both wolves, it felt forced. You could be a villager who just commented in agreement, but it made my eyebrows raise. That's not why I have you leaning wolf, you were already there, it just didn't move you towards village.

I felt like it made sense in the context of the most recent game, where the wolves converted me (a crappy choice) and I threw a hissy fit about my usual dislike of being converted.

See above.

Also I'm not pushing an Ab vote (or any vote really) right now. I've literally just read through Day 1 and am planning to reread the rest. My lack of participation lately (as many of you picked up on) = most of the recent stuff has been primarily skimmed and I'd like to go back through to get a better idea.

 

[Trilt]

Then what is your theory about the second night with 2 deaths?

Honestly, I was thinking possible night vig gone rogue, but that makes less sense now that I've thought about it. If we truly do have a village vig around and the jerk didn't kill Jilary earlier, I'll be annoyed later. 😛

Could be a wolf with a one or two time extra night kill. I guess my point is just that I really feel like the Ny kill feels STLish and for him to have held off killing entirely with a serial killer role while alive doesn't feel like him at all... I'm not convinced that we have an EON extra kill or something like that. Could definitely be wrong though.

 

[PippyPony]

6. Pippy - got feels all over the place on reread. First she mentioned not being sure she'd hit the post requirement (granted I'm legit guilty of not meeting it and I stated I might miss it one day, but it still rubbed me the wrong way - and I think WZ called her out for it as well). Also called out Finn for deflecting the conversation when she (Finn) wasn't in any way doing so (pippy had just RNG voted for her, and Finn shortly after voted for someone else). Was a really weird interaction. Finally, near the end she was pushing the cdo lynch after knowing cdo had claimed a role, yet didn't actually change her own vote (like she didn't want to get caught?). I don't know but like I said before, it gave me all the feels. Wolf lean.

Fair enough. I can explain:

1. I tend to seriously underestimate how much I dislike homework and how addicted I can get to games like this (see the ~2000 posts I've made in the last 2 days as my midterms get closer)
2. I legit felt torn on the cdo lynch, but was glad I ultimately didn't switch on to her
3.

 

[LetItSnow]

I didn't see any converts in the last game. Is there any reason to believe they'll be in this one?

The last game? Where I was converted?

Or do you mean the last basics game?

 

[LetItSnow]

Honestly, I was thinking possible night vig gone rogue, but that makes less sense now that I've thought about it. If we truly do have a village vig around and the jerk didn't kill Jilary earlier, I'll be annoyed later. 😛

Yeah. I'm trying to think what I would have done. In the end, I would have taken out Jilary because then it frees up a future lynch to break some OTHER egg.

On the other hand, I can see someone saying "Jil is going to get lynched anyway, so I'll take out someone else and see if I can find a currently less-suspected wolf." I don't like that thinking, but I can see someone playing it that way.

 

[Animal Midwife]

The last game? Where I was converted?

Or do you mean the last basics game?

I meant dy's last basics game.

 

[Trilt]

Lynch Animal Midwife

Honestly probably just being her normal sketchy, but I'm not getting a good reason to think she's not a wolf, she fits my suspected voting pattern, and may as well break the egg.

 

[KCgophervet]

Day 2:
1. SkiO - Points in both directions. She was one of the 3 who kept votes on cdo post-power role reveal, and raf specifically vouched for her play. However Jil said she was wolf-leaning, so no change in read for her after Day 2.

2. 3M - another one who I found myself agreeing with a lot of posts on D1 and D2. Leaning village for me.

3. Coop - Another who got points both ways. Early in the day Zen called her out for being sketchy (village point). Later in the day she soft vouched for raf twice and was openly against the Jil lynch. Still leaning sketchville.

4. Finn - came on the radar for "I suck at villaging" comment. Stayed there because she soft vouched raf and then later raf soft vouched her. Could mean nothing, could mean something.

5. Ab - first time I read this I was feeling Ab was pretty wolfy, which I assume colored my reading as I remember thinking she sounded like a mama wolf scolding her pup (raf for calling her out for good analysis). Raf did soft vouch for her and DVMD posted suspicions of her. This time through reading it though she sounded less openly wolfy. Not sure how to feel with the whole raf thing, and do think she's dropped under the radar since, but she also seems to be upping her village play. Conflicted, but keeping her as neutral-wolf.

6. Pippy - Openly asked who was jailed N1. Maybe new player, maybe innocent question, but struck me as power role fishing. Vouched for Jil and "not on board" with the raf vote. Pushed her more wolf for me.

7. Confusing - again left their vote on cdo despite the outed power role. I know others have said this doesn't feel that suspicious, and SAR did the same thing (and we know she was village) but still making me curious.

Otherwise some more people made some good points that gave them village cred in my spreadsheet but these were the things that stuck out to me the most in rereading D2.

Ended up doing some skimming (some of those long posts I just couldn't bring myself to reread) so may have missed some stuff, and probably will do the same with D3. But I am finding this post-analysis helpful with our known villagers and wolves being there.

 

[Abnerrs]

Day 2:
1. SkiO - Points in both directions. She was one of the 3 who kept votes on cdo post-power role reveal, and raf specifically vouched for her play. However Jil said she was wolf-leaning, so no change in read for her after Day 2.

2. 3M - another one who I found myself agreeing with a lot of posts on D1 and D2. Leaning village for me.

3. Coop - Another who got points both ways. Early in the day Zen called her out for being sketchy (village point). Later in the day she soft vouched for raf twice and was openly against the Jil lynch. Still leaning sketchville.

4. Finn - came on the radar for "I suck at villaging" comment. Stayed there because she soft vouched raf and then later raf soft vouched her. Could mean nothing, could mean something.

5. Ab - first time I read this I was feeling Ab was pretty wolfy, which I assume colored my reading as I remember thinking she sounded like a mama wolf scolding her pup (raf for calling her out for good analysis). Raf did soft vouch for her and DVMD posted suspicions of her. This time through reading it though she sounded less openly wolfy. Not sure how to feel with the whole raf thing, and do think she's dropped under the radar since, but she also seems to be upping her village play. Conflicted, but keeping her as neutral-wolf.

6. Pippy - Openly asked who was jailed N1. Maybe new player, maybe innocent question, but struck me as power role fishing. Vouched for Jil and "not on board" with the raf vote. Pushed her more wolf for me.

7. Confusing - again left their vote on cdo despite the outed power role. I know others have said this doesn't feel that suspicious, and SAR did the same thing (and we know she was village) but still making me curious.

Otherwise some more people made some good points that gave them village cred in my spreadsheet but these were the things that stuck out to me the most in rereading D2.

Ended up doing some skimming (some of those long posts I just couldn't bring myself to reread) so may have missed some stuff, and probably will do the same with D3. But I am finding this post-analysis helpful with our known villagers and wolves being there.

How tf have I dropped under the radar???

The more you try to make far fetched claims like that the more you make me squint.

 

[KCgophervet]

How tf have I dropped under the radar???

The more you try to make far fetched claims like that the more you make me squint.

I meant under the radar as in less sketchy. I realize I'm confusing terminology here.

Sent from my Nexus 5X using SDN mobile

 

[Abnerrs]

I meant under the radar as in less sketchy. I realize I'm confusing terminology here.

Sent from my Nexus 5X using SDN mobile

Oh ok. I was like dood. I post all the time!

 

[HowConfusing]

Day 2:
1. SkiO - Points in bthrections. She was one of the 3 who kept votes on cdo post-power role reveal, and raf specifically vouched for her play. However Jil said she was wolf-leaning, so no change in read for her after Day 2.

2. 3M - another one who I found myself agreeing with a lot of posts on D1 and D2. Leaning village for me.

3. Coop - Another who got points both ways. Early in the day Zen called her out for being sketchy (village point). Later in the day she soft vouched for raf twice and was openly against the Jil lynch. Still leaning sketchville.

4. Finn - came on the radar for "I suck at villaging" comment. Stayed there because she soft vouched raf and then later raf soft vouched her. Could mean nothing, could mean something.

5. Ab - first time I read this I was feeling Ab was pretty wolfy, which I assume colored my reading as I remember thinking she sounded like a mama wolf scolding her pup (raf for calling her out for good analysis). Raf did soft vouch for her and DVMD posted suspicions of her. This time through reading it though she sounded less openly wolfy. Not sure how to feel with the whole raf thing, and do think she's dropped under the radar since, but she also seems to be upping her village play. Conflicted, but keeping her as neutral-wolf.

6. Pippy - Openly asked who was jailed N1. Maybe new player, maybe innocent question, but struck me as power role fishing. Vouched for Jil and "not on board" with the raf vote. Pushed her more wolf for me.

7. Confusing - again left their vote on cdo despite the outed power role. I know others have said this doesn't feel that suspicious, and SAR did the same thing (and we know she was village) but still making me curious.

Otherwise some more people made some good points that gave them village cred in my spreadsheet but these were the things that stuck out to me the most in rereading D2.

Ended up doing some skimming (some of those long posts I just couldn't bring myself to reread) so may have missed some stuff, and probably will do the same with D3. But I am finding this post-analysis helpful with our known villagers and wolves being there.

Huh. I didn't remember that about 3 and 4. I haven't done a good re-read yet though.

 

[Trilt]

Day 2:
1. SkiO - Points in both directions. She was one of the 3 who kept votes on cdo post-power role reveal, and raf specifically vouched for her play. However Jil said she was wolf-leaning, so no change in read for her after Day 2.

2. 3M - another one who I found myself agreeing with a lot of posts on D1 and D2. Leaning village for me.

3. Coop - Another who got points both ways. Early in the day Zen called her out for being sketchy (village point). Later in the day she soft vouched for raf twice and was openly against the Jil lynch. Still leaning sketchville.

4. Finn - came on the radar for "I suck at villaging" comment. Stayed there because she soft vouched raf and then later raf soft vouched her. Could mean nothing, could mean something.

5. Ab - first time I read this I was feeling Ab was pretty wolfy, which I assume colored my reading as I remember thinking she sounded like a mama wolf scolding her pup (raf for calling her out for good analysis). Raf did soft vouch for her and DVMD posted suspicions of her. This time through reading it though she sounded less openly wolfy. Not sure how to feel with the whole raf thing, and do think she's dropped under the radar since, but she also seems to be upping her village play. Conflicted, but keeping her as neutral-wolf.

6. Pippy - Openly asked who was jailed N1. Maybe new player, maybe innocent question, but struck me as power role fishing. Vouched for Jil and "not on board" with the raf vote. Pushed her more wolf for me.

7. Confusing - again left their vote on cdo despite the outed power role. I know others have said this doesn't feel that suspicious, and SAR did the same thing (and we know she was village) but still making me curious.

Otherwise some more people made some good points that gave them village cred in my spreadsheet but these were the things that stuck out to me the most in rereading D2.

Ended up doing some skimming (some of those long posts I just couldn't bring myself to reread) so may have missed some stuff, and probably will do the same with D3. But I am finding this post-analysis helpful with our known villagers and wolves being there.

Can you quote this? Hadn't seen, couldn't find.

 

[Trilt]

Yeah. I'm trying to think what I would have done. In the end, I would have taken out Jilary because then it frees up a future lynch to break some OTHER egg.

On the other hand, I can see someone saying "Jil is going to get lynched anyway, so I'll take out someone else and see if I can find a currently less-suspected wolf." I don't like that thinking, but I can see someone playing it that way.

I don't like that (take someone else out, less suspected wolf) at all tbh. The information from a dead Jil would have been much more helpful. Again, I'll be grumpy if that's the case.

 

[PippyPony]

I don't like that (take someone else out, less suspected wolf) at all tbh. The information from a dead Jil would have been much more helpful. Again, I'll be grumpy if that's the case.

Even if there was a mechanism in place for this, I'd find it pretty hard to believe that someone playing for the village would go for one of the people who've been night killed (some of whom were pretty solid village on a lot of lists) over someone who was clearly headed for a lynch. I think the extra wolf kills theory (or even the boosted/every other night theory) makes a lot more sense.

I don't like that (take someone else out, less suspected wolf) at all tbh. The information from a dead Jil would have been much more helpful. Again, I'll be grumpy if that's the case.

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[PippyPony]

Sorry, weird double-quoting action from my phone.

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[LetItSnow]

I don't like that (take someone else out, less suspected wolf) at all tbh. The information from a dead Jil would have been much more helpful. Again, I'll be grumpy if that's the case.

I agree. What I was trying to say was that I can see a (newer?) player arriving at the conclusion that it's the best way to use a limited killing ability. I might not have said it clearly.

 

[mmmdreamerz]

Lynch Animal Midwife

Honestly probably just being her normal sketchy, but I'm not getting a good reason to think she's not a wolf, she fits my suspected voting pattern, and may as well break the egg.

I agree. Also the whole "asking me questions instead of me defending myself even though I'm probably going to get lynched" thing came off super weird...like she didn't want to say too much

 

[Animal Midwife]

I agree. Also the whole "asking me questions instead of me defending myself even though I'm probably going to get lynched" thing came off super weird...like she didn't want to say too much

In every other game I've played, I've tried to defend myself the more common way. It always ended with me saying I didn't understand why I was sketchy and inevitably getting lynched. So, I figured I'd get right to the root of the problem and answer what's concerning people.

 

[dyachei]

Official Lynch Tally
Nessie 1 - pippy
Finn 1 - LIS
AM 1 - trilt

3/17 votes cast

 

[Coopah]

In every other game I've played, I've tried to defend myself the more common way. It always ended with me saying I didn't understand why I was sketchy and inevitably getting lynched. So, I figured I'd get right to the root of the problem and answer what's concerning people.

AM are you a wolf?

 

[Animal Midwife]

AM are you a wolf?

No.

 

[mmmdreamerz]

AM are you a wolf?

Would you say yes to this? Lol

 

[Coopah]

Would you say yes to this? Lol

Just a funny 😉

 

[Coopah]

3. Coop - Another who got points both ways. Early in the day Zen called her out for being sketchy (village point). Later in the day she soft vouched for raf twice and was openly against the Jil lynch. Still leaning sketchville.

Regarding this, I did think raf was village early, but later I mentioned that raf was usually a lot better at discerning wolves and that gave me a . I'll try to find it. Here it is:

I followed STL because otherwise it would've been tied with me in the tie. I didn't want that . As far as AM I can see her being wolfy, she seems to be blending in with not much to say that's helpful. As far as my analysis:
SAR is reading pretty village from what I see.
STL doesn't seem careless enough to direct a lynch on a villager if a wolf to me.
LIS is reading strict villager so far, not much to go on.
Abnerrs seems normal for her so I don't see anything there.
Raf is usually very helpful and logical in her questions, so not leaning one way or another is weird for her I'd say. Maybe not lynch right now, but something to consider with a little more info.

Here's my suspicions about Jil on the day we lynched Zen. So I wouldn't say I was opposed to the Jil lynch.

This theory makes me . It seems awfully extravagant for STL to find a seer which I'm not sure he was aiming for AT ALL. You are definitely on my radar now. I'll stick with Zen for now but you tomorrow.

 

[Animal Midwife]

Would you say yes to this? Lol

Just a funny 😉

I was originally going to put a joke response, but that got me lynched in a different game because people thought I was serious.

If you have any other questions to ask me though, go ahead.

 

[WildZoo]

Jil post analysis incoming!

I think 4-5 wolves is a reasonable guess. I'm not a fan of converts being in basic games though.

With both Jil and raf talking about converts not being a thing in a basics game, I'm thinking maybe they are a thing.

And if anyone wants to know my reads, right now LIS and DrS are reading villager to me, Abs and DVMD, likely villager. STL I have leaning wolf, most others are neutral, but ski is neutral leaning wolf.

Some color coding of her earliest reads. The more important note here is that she also voted ski day 1 in the whole ski/cdo situation, and continued to push for ski on subsequent days. I would have thought it was bussing but it was continued even after they lost one wolf and knew they were likely to lose two more fairly soon. So Ski is solidly village for me.

I'm going to have to disagree with the last part. In any game with a high percentage of vanillagers, wolves want to get rid of pretty much anyone with a role. Sure they would prefer to get rid of a seer, tracker, protector first, but anyone with a role is fairly high priority to eliminate. Also, wolves love it when villagers lynch the person they want to kill, because that leaves them open to kill someone else that they want to get rid of.

This post caught my eye because despite the fact that it doesn't say it outright, it ends up agreeing with the idea that the wolves would have wanted cdo to go down in the d1 lynch. It's subtle shade thrown at the people who stayed on cdo, and with that in mind I'm thinking maybe the wolves did all jump ship to different options. Will have to look at that final tally again.

This is why DrS, DVMD and LIS are reading village to me because they are thinking on their own and not just blindly following STL.

Village reads, obviously two of those are villagers. I'm pretty sure LIS is as well but figured I would quote it anyway.

1. DVMD - Likely village, which is saying something because I usually have a hard time reading her, but she's participating and critically thinking and questioning things in a way that makes me suspect she's village
2. Trilt - village leaning, some posts stick out to me as being very much for the village, and she's encouraged independent thought
3. WZ - Not sure, I've gone between leaning village and leaning wolf. She doesn't talk as much as she used to, but I get that school will do that to anyone and this certainly isn't a "new this game thing" I just find her blind faith in STL weird and somewhat unlike her. I'm used to her questioning people more
4. SkiOtter - wolf leaning based off of what I have said earlier about her bringing suspicion to CDO so quick. If I remember correctly, Dy said wolves can chat only at night, and if we started on a day cycle, the rest of the pack wouldn't have been able to tell her this was a bad idea, and she seems to have been quieter since, or at least her posts this day cycle aren't sticking out to me as much
6. SARdoghandler - Not sure, nothing really sticking out in my mind either way
7. awesomenessity - I honestly should go look back at her posts more, right now I want to say leaning village, but will look and get back
8. mmmdreamerz - Nothing sticking out to me at the moment, no thoughts if wolf or village
9. kcoughli - Don't have a read here either, though I did see her FB post from yesterday, so I was kind of giving her a pass (hope you got everything worked out!)
10. allyphoe - Gut is saying wolf leaning, but just slightly
11. Coopah - I had her leaning village, but her last post struck me as odd, so now I have her as leaning wolf, definitely on my "watch" list
13. STL - like I said, originally thought he was wolf leaning, now I think he's just a stubbornly wrong villager
14. serher - I could go either way here, post seem fluffy for the most part, but noob, so not sure
15. Cyndia - Being Cyndia, (isn't she ALWAYS a wolf? 😉) Can't get a read on someone that doesn't post much
16. Zensing - leaning village to me, has made some good posts, some fluff posts, it's D2, so this is what I would expect from her at this point
17. LIS - leaning village, pushing people hard like he always does, like that he asks people to post about their suspicions, gives us info
18. finn - Another person I could go either way on, would really like to see more posts
19. AM - She's just always sketch and I'd had her leaning wolf, but I also feel bad because she always gets lynched and is always village, which reminds me of me
20. Jilary - Totally village, because I have inside info yo.
21. raf - Possible wolf, thought it was just noob silly misunderstanding stuff, but when she was explaining herself, things got sketchy
22. Abnerrs - I admit my judgement here is clouded because I genuinely like her. I had her middle of the road, but I see what people are saying, I have no desire to turn the lynch towards her though
23. PippyPony - Some posts make me think, yup, village, others, nope wolf, but likely just noob. Another one I would keep on my "watch" list
24. Doctor-S - Likely village. Seems to really be trying to get people talking which is great in these games
25. HowConfusing - Some sketchy posts, also first game, so really hard to tell, very slightly wolf leaning
26. nyanko - Very slightly village leaning, seems slightly more talkative than other games, but there is that post minimum. My gut is saying village as of right now
27. SnowshoeDog143 - Wolf leaning, some posts made me side eye a bit.

This was D2, I think around the time that raf was starting to go down.

Village Reads
Trilt
nessy
LIS
Zen
STL
Doc-S
nyan

Neutral Reads
WZ
SAR
3m
kcough
Cyndia
finn
serher
Abs
Pippy - but on "watch" list

Wolf Reads
Ski
raf
ally
Coop
AM - but with sympathy
Snowy

If I'm remembering correctly, Jilary has been inclined to show some support for her fellow wolves in the past, as long as they weren't under too much scrutiny. I'm not sure though. Seeing nessy up on her village list here (with the note that she would "need to go back and read her posts") combined with the post quoted below just gives me more reason to vote for nessy today.

I could vote for nessy or Am, though I've contemplated just voting for myself just to get it over with.

This was super late on the day of her lynch. Not sure how to interpret it yet because I could see it going either way with her knowing that she was about to go down as a wolf. It's telling that she didn't even really try for self preservation that day. So on the one hand I could be suspicious of others who were discussed, thinking that Jil didn't want to throw them under the bus with the wolves already in a tough spot. Or I could think they were village and she didn't want to clear them by pushing or voting for them when she was about to go down anyway.

 

[awesomenessity]

I don't know when I'll be home tonight since I'm at a horse show (and they always take eons to do anything) so I'm going to

******lynch AM******


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[deleted806434]

I figured I would quote Zen's post about wolf reads so we could see them back to back with Jil's (in WZ's post)

I see that @Jilary hasn't posted yet today. I'd like to hear from her before lynching her. Her individual posts leave me in more of a neutral read (didn't post much defense of play, but did end up providing lots of feels when questioned), but I'm leaning towards the wolves killing STL for feeling threatened. WIFOM, and I'd rather trigger that question than leave it sitting around and distracting me.

If anyone else is interested, my current wolf suspicions are serher (has sounded vague in posts), finnick (as LIS pointed out, has fought against others more than fighting for the wolves) and awesome (her tone's reminding me of Star WWars). Coopah hasn't done anything I've noticed since the weird day 1 post, so I'm calling that behavior differences and leaving it at that. I was suspicious of Dr. S, but I think that was because I wasn't used to their posting style. DVMD did well pushing raf, and I'm interpreting that as leaning villager for now. I think Abnerrs is just joking around.

So she said...

village: DVMD
neutral: Jil
wolf: serher, finn, nessy

She also commented on Coopah, DrS, and Abs but she kind of just brushed off suspicions about them and didn't seem concerned. Could potentially be a soft vouch hidden in there

 

[KCgophervet]

Can you quote this? Hadn't seen, couldn't find.

Trying to find where I got that from was difficult. I'm thinking it came from the bolded part below, but now that I'm re-re-reading it it's less of a vouch and more of a potential deflection.

eh I'm just saying that I haven't had a good game so far, and it's obviously giving people suspicions. When I post my feels, it's making people more suspicious. People are also suspicious of some quiet people. All I could do was post what I was thinking. Maybe I can be most helpful to the village if I'm lynched.
For what it's worth, I still want to hear more from cyndia today and I think what finn posted about ally was really interesting and a good observation. I'm interested in hearing what she has to say about that. I'm also intrigued by the Jil lynch, but not because of feels for Jil, just pure curiosity of if STL is right again.

I also re-re-read this:

I'm not super suspicious of the cdo voters, I think cdo ended up with a weird role that ended up getting her lynched, but I don't blame people for thinking that role was sketchy. I'm also thinking Ski is probably village, I feel like a wolf wouldn't try to start a lynch on someone random so early that might take off and end up lynching a villager. I just feel like that's too risky for a wolf on D1.

Not super surprising but sounds like Jil and raf were disagreeing on thread. Making it difficult to analyze their actual thoughts.