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All true. I have been thinking and reading about Bitcoin and crypto a little bit over the past few weeks. My gut is that it is the right innovation at the wrong time. Bitcoin, like the US dollar, gold, financial markets (especially the US) are based on trust.

The above examples have decades to centuries of imbued trust.
I just find it hard to believe that in a world where trust in all of our most established and cherished institutions is declining, that this one will be embraced. In times of increasing uncertainty and fragility people flock to what has a long track record- Treasurys, Gold, the US dollar, and to a lesser extent US equities because of the rule of law (cough), etc.

Still sitting on the sidelines.

I have enjoyed your posts on the subject so far.

Respect. The pushback I receive doesn't bother me at all. If anything, I'd hope people will research and challenge my claims. Might learn something you didn't know about and might push you down a rabbit hole to learn more.

The mechanics of the economy and the banking system isn't taught in schools for a reason.
 
Goldman Sachs offering Crypto. They are starting with their wealthiest clients first. Eventually they'll get to the plebs. It's now safe for the general public to get into the digital asset space.







Goldman Sachs is close to offering its first investment vehicles for bitcoin and other digital assets to clients of its private wealth management group, CNBC has learned exclusively.

The bank aims to begin offering investments in the emerging asset class in the second quarter, according to Mary Rich, who was recently named global head of digital assets for Goldman’s private wealth management division.




Her promotion was scheduled to be announced Wednesday in an internal company memo seen by CNBC.

We are working closely with teams across the firm to explore ways to offer thoughtful and appropriate access to the ecosystem for private wealth clients, and that is something we expect to offer in the near term,” Rich said in an interview this week.

Goldman is looking at ultimately offering a “full spectrum” of investments in bitcoin and digital assets, “whether that’s through the physical bitcoin, derivatives or traditional investment vehicles,” she said.

The move means that soon, clients of two of the world’s preeminent investment banks – Goldman and Morgan Stanley – will have access to a nascent asset class that has intrigued billionaires and digital currency believers alike. Earlier this month, Morgan Stanley told its financial advisors that they could place clients into bitcoin funds starting in April, CNBC was first to report.

It is the latest sign of the staying power of blockchain-related assets including bitcoin, a new kind of money that emerged out of the wreckage of the 2008 financial crisis and whose exact origins are still unknown. Until now, big U.S. banks have mostly shunned bitcoin, deeming it too speculative and volatile for clients.



But the industry capitulated after the latest boom in bitcoin’s price. The surge has drawn in institutional investors, corporations and fintech players, and the infrastructure to hold digital assets is continuing to mature. In the end, it was client demand that won out, according to Rich.

“There’s a contingent of clients who are looking to this asset as a hedge against inflation, and the macro backdrop over the past year has certainly played into that,” Rich said. “There are also a large contingent of clients who feel like we’re sitting at the dawn of a new Internet in some ways and are looking for ways to participate in this space.”

Goldman’s private wealth management business mostly targets individuals, families and endowments with at least $25 million to invest.

The bank may offer bitcoin investment funds, similar to those that Morgan Stanley will have, as well as other ways to invest that are “more akin to the underlying asset class which trades 24-7 globally,” Rich said. Some cryptofunds, such as the Galaxy Bitcoin Fund, can only be sold or bought once per quarter, she said.

“We’re still in the very nascent stages of this ecosystem; no one knows exactly how it will evolve or what shape it will be,” Rich said. “But I think it’s fairly safe to expect it will be part of our future.”
 
Are you saying that equities are valued based on the companies income? That is laughable. Just look at the market. And regardless, youre still just hoping to sell the stock for more than you bought it, unless you only buy dividend stocks. Does that make the whole stock market a ponzi game? Absolutely! And thats ok.
These statements represent a profound misunderstanding of what equities are and how they work.

You seem to be thinking of equities in the context of daytraders.

Daytrading winners are extracting money from daytrading losers, yes - that's a zero sum game. Over time however, the price of a stock is correlated with the value of the company, which produces goods and provides services at profit. Sometimes that time is a long time, and there's potential for inefficiencies in the market and sometimes even outright manipulation. But fundamentally, a stock is partial ownership of a company, and this ownership CAN, HAS, and DOES actually create wealth, as the human beings who work for those companies provide services or turn raw materials into more valuable materials.

Yes, there are some overvalued stocks. Yes, there's some volatility (though that shouldn't scare Bitcoin fans, of all people). In an inflationary environment, one would expect equity prices to inflate also, preserving some purchasing power.

In the entirety of human history, ownership of the means of production has always been a solid footing for preserving and growing wealth.

In the long term, unless you think society and the global economy are going to collapse, the best hedge for inflation is probably ownership of valuable assets - and the mainstays here are always going to be land (preferably land that is productive in some manner), or profitable businesses, or lumps of metal that people have valued for 1000s of years.

Maybe (maybe) cryptocurrency will prove itself to be a store of wealth on par with gold. Time will tell. It certainly won't (can't) create value the way productive land or human labor does. This is the primary knock on gold ownership, and why it's still a somewhat controversial asset to include in a portfolio, despite 1000s of years of history behind it.

If you think the global equity market is a Ponzi game, you don't know what either equities or Ponzi schemes are.
 
These statements represent a profound misunderstanding of what equities are and how they work.

You seem to be thinking of equities in the context of daytraders.

Daytrading winners are extracting money from daytrading losers, yes - that's a zero sum game. Over time however, the price of a stock is correlated with the value of the company, which produces goods and provides services at profit. Sometimes that time is a long time, and there's potential for inefficiencies in the market and sometimes even outright manipulation. But fundamentally, a stock is partial ownership of a company, and this ownership CAN, HAS, and DOES actually create wealth, as the human beings who work for those companies provide services or turn raw materials into more valuable materials.

Yes, there are some overvalued stocks. Yes, there's some volatility (though that shouldn't scare Bitcoin fans, of all people). In an inflationary environment, one would expect equity prices to inflate also, preserving some purchasing power.

In the entirety of human history, ownership of the means of production has always been a solid footing for preserving and growing wealth.

In the long term, unless you think society and the global economy are going to collapse, the best hedge for inflation is probably ownership of valuable assets - and the mainstays here are always going to be land (preferably land that is productive in some manner), or profitable businesses, or lumps of metal that people have valued for 1000s of years.

Maybe (maybe) cryptocurrency will prove itself to be a store of wealth on par with gold. Time will tell. It certainly won't (can't) create value the way productive land or human labor does. This is the primary knock on gold ownership, and why it's still a somewhat controversial asset to include in a portfolio, despite 1000s of years of history behind it.

If you think the global equity market is a Ponzi game, you don't know what either equities or Ponzi schemes are.
Ok one more post here. Right, I'm saying ponzi which they technically aren't, but I'm trying to point out that the goal of almost all investing is ultimately to buy something and sell it for more later, ie early investors profit off of later investors (so to your last point, yes I know the difference, but was being loose with my wording, colloquial, for conversation's sake). This is the case with equities, real estate, gold, crypto, etc. When people say things like, "youre just buying bitcoin to sell to a greater fool later," that may be true (although thats not the entire reason for many people), but that's definitely the reason most people hold equities (who really participates in ownership?). I obviously wouldnt disagree that owning the means of production is the way to preserve wealth, but in the end, we all plan to sell that preserved wealth to someone else for more than we paid. And of course stocks are valued, in part, based on the value the company can create, but there's obviously way more to it than that, especially now with historic highs of P/E ratios, and just meme driven valuations. I disagree that cryptocurrency can't create value-- look into ethereum. Overall I agree with most of what you said here, and I appreciate your input.
 
Ok one more post here. Right, I'm saying ponzi which they technically aren't, but I'm trying to point out that the goal of almost all investing is ultimately to buy something and sell it for more later, ie early investors profit off of later investors (so to your last point, yes I know the difference, but was being loose with my wording, colloquial, for conversation's sake). This is the case with equities, real estate, gold, crypto, etc. When people say things like, "youre just buying bitcoin to sell to a greater fool later," that may be true (although thats not the entire reason for many people), but that's definitely the reason most people hold equities (who really participates in ownership?). I obviously wouldnt disagree that owning the means of production is the way to preserve wealth, but in the end, we all plan to sell that preserved wealth to someone else for more than we paid. And of course stocks are valued, in part, based on the value the company can create, but there's obviously way more to it than that, especially now with historic highs of P/E ratios, and just meme driven valuations. I disagree that cryptocurrency can't create value-- look into ethereum. Overall I agree with most of what you said here, and I appreciate your input.

I think the fundamental difference is that with something like gold or bitcoin or whatever, you are hoping that somebody in the future will pay more to buy it than you did. With equities, you are expecting that they will pay more.

If a company (or corporate America in general if you look at something like the total market) remains successful, it HAS to be remain valuable to own it. Unfortunately for something like a cryptocurrency, even if it has some use to people (now or in the future) that doesn't mean it MUST be worth any given amount of money. I mean even if we assume that cryptocurrency as an idea becomes the most valuable idea in the history of the world it is quite possible that every existing cryptocurrency will be worth nothing as they get replaced by something better. But if a company is putting out millions and billions of dollars of earnings per year, the value of that can't be zero because if it was someone would just take it private for pennies and have billions of dollars of personal profit per year.

Stocks are actual ownership of actual companies and in the history of humanity, that has been the surest way to grow wealth over time. Relative valuations of profits can vary, but as time horizons stretch into decades that smooths out to be almost meaningless compared to any other asset class.
 
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Thoughts on this?

Seems inevitable at some point. I admit I say that more from an educated gut feeling point of view than actually knowing all the intricacies of Bitcoin and blockchain. Bitcoin has that look of something I don't even care to look into too deeply. Looks like a lot of FOMO driving it.
 
Seems inevitable at some point. I admit I say that more from an educated gut feeling point of view than actually knowing all the intricacies of Bitcoin and blockchain. Bitcoin has that look of something I don't even care to look into too deeply. Looks like a lot of FOMO driving it.
We've all heard that an iphone contains more technology than we used to put a man on the moon. Whether or not this is true, today's cryptocurrency that is supposedly "secure and unhackable" will be nothing to hack at some point in the future.
 
I think the fundamental difference is that with something like gold or bitcoin or whatever, you are hoping that somebody in the future will pay more to buy it than you did. With equities, you are expecting that they will pay more.

If a company (or corporate America in general if you look at something like the total market) remains successful, it HAS to be remain valuable to own it. Unfortunately for something like a cryptocurrency, even if it has some use to people (now or in the future) that doesn't mean it MUST be worth any given amount of money. I mean even if we assume that cryptocurrency as an idea becomes the most valuable idea in the history of the world it is quite possible that every existing cryptocurrency will be worth nothing as they get replaced by something better. But if a company is putting out millions and billions of dollars of earnings per year, the value of that can't be zero because if it was someone would just take it private for pennies and have billions of dollars of personal profit per year.

Stocks are actual ownership of actual companies and in the history of humanity, that has been the surest way to grow wealth over time. Relative valuations of profits can vary, but as time horizons stretch into decades that smooths out to be almost meaningless compared to any other asset class.

I’m not sure about the “history of humanity”. Stocks were considered risky and speculative at one time.

 
I’m not sure about the “history of humanity”. Stocks were considered risky and speculative at one time.


Stocks are supposed to have risk, that's why they generate greater returns over time.

Also I was saying that owning companies has always been the best way to make money, even before we had active stock markets in which to trade shares of ownership.
 
Stocks are supposed to have risk, that's why they generate greater returns over time.

Also I was saying that owning companies has always been the best way to make money, even before we had active stock markets in which to trade shares of ownership.

I guess my point is that stocks were a new untested asset class at one time.
 
Sacramento Kings to Offer Bitcoin Salary Option to All Players - CoinDesk

As payment in bitcoin comes to the forefront, more athletes, and professionals (especially the work from home and mobile working industry) will request to be paid in BTC. This is the early beginnings of the financial aspect of the digital revolution. Exciting times ahead

I would not want to be a highly compensated athlete requesting to be paid in bitcoin. Too much risk. You want your paycheck in a stable currency, not something with a rapidly fluctuating value. Then after you get paid in dollars you could buy as much bitcoin as you wanted.

Worst possible outcome would be to negotiate your annual salary in bitcoin and then the price plummets for a few months and you get paid far less than you thought (while probably still owing income taxes at the original dollar amount). No need to concentrate so much risk into one position.
 
I would not want to be a highly compensated athlete requesting to be paid in bitcoin. Too much risk. You want your paycheck in a stable currency, not something with a rapidly fluctuating value. Then after you get paid in dollars you could buy as much bitcoin as you wanted.

Worst possible outcome would be to negotiate your annual salary in bitcoin and then the price plummets for a few months and you get paid far less than you thought (while probably still owing income taxes at the original dollar amount). No need to concentrate so much risk into one position.

I wouldn’t want my whole salary at this point in BTC. But I would gladly accept it a portion of it in BTC and hold it as savings (especially as the US dollar hyperinflates vs BTC).
 
I wouldn’t want my whole salary at this point in BTC. But I would gladly accept it a portion of it in BTC and hold it as savings (especially as the US dollar hyperinflates vs BTC).

even if you loved BTC, it would seem to be wiser to get paid in dollars and then immediately convert to BTC whatever portion you wish
 
https://www.coindesk.com/state-street-aims-to-start-cryptocurrency-trading-in-middle-of-2021

2nd oldest bank in the US is getting into the crypto game. No longer a fad. Once crypto (more specifically Bitcoin) crossed the 1 trillion dollar market cap, it could no longer be ignored by institutions and the high net worth individuals they serve. The flood gates are open and I see more corps and institutions offering “services” at this point I paid myself to learn about the technology and the value proposition and custody it myself. Looks like we are near the bend of the S curve of adoption. Also funny to see banks like Goldman, who less than a year ago published a paper stating basically crypto had no value proposition, but are now offering services and going head first into the industry.

As governments continue to “print” trillions of dollars (of all the money in the history of the US, 35% was printed in just the last year!), more people will have a “wait a minute” moment and look to store their wealth. Hope people are watching what’s going on and not listening to what we’re being told. Interesting times ahead.
 

I guess selling out your neighbor to make.money is as American as it gets but still...
 

I guess selling out your neighbor to make.money is as American as it gets but still...

I suggest you watch the video in it’s entirety.
 
Bitcoin isn’t a stock. It’s a final settlement stateless global digital money.

if so, when should we expect it to reach stable value? Currencies are not investments. If bitcoin reaches stable currency, you would never want to own it in an investment portfolio.
 
Unfortunately COVID and the lockdowns have crippled the economy and the machines of capitalism would have been ground to a halt leading to another Great Delression without the massive injection of free money into the markets. Asset inflation itself has to be near 30%. The stock market, real estate, and yes crypto (although I believe the halvening affects crypto as well) have all catapulted in “value” with the injection of free money while common goods havent changed much in price. The creep is coming and cash is trash.
 
..,.Asset inflation itself has to be near 30%. The stock market, real estate, and yes crypto (although I believe the halvening affects crypto as well) have all catapulted in “value” with the injection of free money while common goods havent changed much in price. The creep is coming and cash is trash.

History suggests that cash will be king (again) at some point. Soon to be retiree docs and those who were over weighted to equities should be kissing the ground for the gift from the fed and taking chips off the table.
 
History suggests that cash will be king (again) at some point. Soon to be retiree docs and those who were over weighted to equities should be kissing the ground for the gift from the fed and taking chips off the table.

At some point cash may be king but for the past 10-15 years, anybody holding cash lost a lot of ground. Basically everything (stocks, real estate, Bitcoin, Pokémon cards, fancy watches, wine, etc) outperformed cash. Taking your chips off the table is timing the market.
 
cash is never a good investment over any length of time
True, but having a store of value that doesn't decline so you can purchase equities when they go on sale has been rewarded. Historically short-intermediate term, high quality fixed income has filled that role and provided some positive real return. Right now given the shape of the yield curve on the short end and minimal credit spreads, cash plays that role-minus the positive real return.
 
True, but having a store of value that doesn't decline so you can purchase equities when they go on sale has been rewarded. Historically short-intermediate term, high quality fixed income has filled that role and provided some positive real return. Right now given the shape of the yield curve on the short end and minimal credit spreads, cash plays that role-minus the positive real return.

I would simply suggest a balanced mix of assets and you can rebalance whenever you so desire, no need to have large amounts of cash or bitcoin or whatever laying around to buy stocks.
 
I would not want to be a highly compensated athlete requesting to be paid in bitcoin. Too much risk. You want your paycheck in a stable currency, not something with a rapidly fluctuating value. Then after you get paid in dollars you could buy as much bitcoin as you wanted.

Worst possible outcome would be to negotiate your annual salary in bitcoin and then the price plummets for a few months and you get paid far less than you thought (while probably still owing income taxes at the original dollar amount). No need to concentrate so much risk into one position.
What do you mean? Highly paid athletes have excellent judgment in all things, especially financial things.
 
What do you mean? Highly paid athletes have excellent judgment in all things, especially financial things.

I sincerely hope you and other doubters go down the rabbit hole and do a deep dive into the value proposition of Bitcoin. If you do, you’ll have a lightbulb moment and will start accumulating. We are gonna see a repricing of just about all asset classes vs a Hard digital money. The money is going digital based and there’s no one are nothing that can stop it.
 
COIN IPO has the crypto market pumping more than the FED pumps dollars. Brrrrrrrr.

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Currently have a few thousand in cryptocurrency. Started throwing some cash in it for the last few months.

A majority in bitcoin and ethereum with a relatively small amount in Uniswap and Aave.

My overall returns are nearly 30%. Best performing asset I have. Of course it is all theoretical since I am not selling.

Seeing the rise in ethereum has especially been impressive.

I had posted elsewhere that I think ethereum getting to the $3000 range is a strong possibility in the next year.

I wouldn't be surprised at bitcoin getting to the $100000 range either.
 
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Currently have a few thousand in cryptocurrency. Started throwing some cash in it for the last few months.

A majority in bitcoin and ethereum with a relatively small amount in Uniswap and Aave.

My overall returns are nearly 30%. Best performing asset I have. Of course it is all theoretical since I am not selling.

Seeing the rise in ethereum has especially been impressive.

I had posted elsewhere that I think ethereum getting to the $3000 range is a strong possibility in the next year.

I wouldn't be surprised at bitcoin getting to the $100000 range either.

2% global adoption........
 
Currently have a few thousand in cryptocurrency. Started throwing some cash in it for the last few months.

A majority in bitcoin and ethereum with a relatively small amount in Uniswap and Aave.

My overall returns are nearly 30%. Best performing asset I have. Of course it is all theoretical since I am not selling.

Seeing the rise in ethereum has especially been impressive.

I had posted elsewhere that I think ethereum getting to the $3000 range is a strong possibility in the next year.

I wouldn't be surprised at bitcoin getting to the $100000 range either.
ETH will cough cough NOT financial advice easily reach 5000--particularly with PoS. DOGE was a pile of hot garbage today, but an appreciating one at that.
 




Dallas branch of the Federal Reserve says Bitcoin is already a store of value.


it can be a store of value with an aggregate value of $1M or $100000000000000M. There is no logic to assign a value at either end of the spectrum as an asset. It will be whatever someone is willing to pay in the future.
 
The Fed’s stance went from ignore to hostile to store of value. You may not see anything there but I sure do.
don't confuse a single regional guy with a governmental point of view. Also there is a direct correlation between an asset's size and the amount of attention that gets paid to it. Only natural that as prices skyrocket more people pay attention. Doesn't mean anything relevant, but it gets attention.
 
don't confuse a single regional guy with a governmental point of view. Also there is a direct correlation between an asset's size and the amount of attention that gets paid to it. Only natural that as prices skyrocket more people pay attention. Doesn't mean anything relevant, but it gets attention.

Honestly I don’t think there’s anything positive that happening in the space that will pique your interest (which is your prerogative). I mean from company balance sheet adoption, Wyoming crypto banking laws, The city of Miami ingratiating crypto to the city (including the option of municipal workers being partially paid in BTC), the new SEC chair who taught blockchain technology at MIT, making purchases of goods and service in bitcoin, 7 new applications for a bitcoin ETF, possible proposals for no taxation on crypto purchases, and now the the FED chair Jerome Powell liking bitcoin to a store of value like gold. And all of this is just in the US and has happened in the last year, in just the US.

Don’t let your lack of knowledge about the space cloud your judgment or make you a skeptic. Do a little research and let’s have a dialogue
 
Honestly I don’t think there’s anything positive that happening in the space that will pique your interest (which is your prerogative). I mean from company balance sheet adoption, Wyoming crypto banking laws, The city of Miami ingratiating crypto to the city (including the option of municipal workers being partially paid in BTC), the new SEC chair who taught blockchain technology at MIT, making purchases of goods and service in bitcoin, 7 new applications for a bitcoin ETF, possible proposals for no taxation on crypto purchases, and now the the FED chair Jerome Powell liking bitcoin to a store of value like gold. And all of this is just in the US and has happened in the last year, in just the US.

Don’t let your lack of knowledge about the space cloud your judgment or make you a skeptic. Do a little research and let’s have a dialogue

I have a PhD in knowledge about the crypto space. I'm agnostic about the inherent value of any currently available variety. Current ones are all replaceable and if replaced will ultimately have no value. That's not the sort of thing I choose to invest in as it is the opposite of having a moat. I own some crypto as a morbid curiosity so I can follow the price, but I do not consider it an investment of any sort.

Understanding the idea of cryptocurrency and blockchain and believing in it is not the same thing as believing that any current cryptocurrency should have any inherent long term value.

(also comparing bitcoin to gold is the opposite of arguing it is an investment of any value)


The funniest part of crypto fanbois to me (not directing this at you) is that they think because this idea is awesome or has whatever merit that it necessitates a certain future value to a coin. That's not really how investing works. I file crypto 100% under what Ben Graham deemed "speculation". There is no margin of safety that is built in. If we want to pretend it is a currency, it is less stable than an Iraqi dinar and at least the dinar is backed by the relative ability of their government to tax residents and local companies. Being increasingly useful as a currency (or way to exchange value) does not require the current price of any coin to increase. As a random citizen of the US I have no problem using USD to buy things. Having a digital wallet of coins would not help me in day to day life in any way. And despite what Blade will rant about, inflation is not yet a thing that is happening or an impending doom to worry about.
 
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I remember back in 2013, a guy held up a sign at a college football game with a QR code and the sign said "Hi Mom, Send Bitcoin."

Redditors subsequently cleaned up the image to make the QR code usable and they sent him >20 bitcoin in only a few days. I wonder if that dude has held onto any of that. The wallet appears to be nearly empty now. Hopefully he just moved it around!

"One college football sign netted over $20,000 in donations for a Bitcoin enthusiast - The Verge" One college football sign netted over $20,000 in donations for a Bitcoin enthusiast
 
Interesting price action and support.


 
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