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Do you expect a new ATH in 2025 ? If so, under or over 100k?

Assuming this next 4-year cycle behaves like the previous ones, we should see the next ATH sometime in Q4 of 2024 (approximately 6 months after the halving).

The cycle then typically *peaks* a year after that, so Q4 of 2025.

I definitely think the peak will (finally) exceed that 100k threshold.
 
BTC is here to stay despite the naysayers. I think the US dollar has more to worry about (losing its status as a world reserve currency thanks to the BRICS nations) than BTC. US gov't is one of the largest BTC holders there is owning about 1%of the total supply. I appreciate your informative posts.
Where does the US hold Bitcoin? Asking because I don't understand
 
Where does the US hold Bitcoin? Asking because I don't understand
Generally when they confiscate it from criminal use, they hold it long enough to attempt to get maximum value for the treasury. It's not like the USG is investing in BTC.
 
Am I understanding correctly that this year's bank failures occured because the banks did not have enough reserves to cover the withdrawals? Isn't that why regulators were trying to shut down crypto, because it's not safe like a bank? Oh the irony.
 
Am I understanding correctly that this year's bank failures occured because the banks did not have enough reserves to cover the withdrawals? Isn't that why regulators were trying to shut down crypto, because it's not safe like a bank? Oh the irony.

I don’t think any bank has enough reserves if a panic ensues for withdrawals. Those specific banks leveraged their assets and lost the bet. You win some, you lose some.

I think 99.99% of crypto projects are scams or ponzis. Proper regulation (not banning) may allow the 0.01% to prosper, but it’s pretty wishful thinking. I’ve grown suspicious of even some of the well-backed projects based on their tokenomics and various other reasons.

As much as I support legitimate crypto stuff, given the recent sociopolitical environment over the past few years, I think about 98% of the public are too dumb to do their own research (as we have seen) to not get screwed by crypto scams. People are still participating in and losing all of their money on MLMs. This is not even addressing how complicated navigating through some of the crypto stuff can be (e.g., cold wallets, hot wallets, gas fees, running nodes, smart contracts, seed phrase management, etc.) speaking as a decently technical guy.

IMO, the only way crypto gets “mass adoption” is if it flies under the radar and works underneath the surface for things we already use. This will take a decade or more to mature, I think, if it ever does.
 
Am I understanding correctly that this year's bank failures occured because the banks did not have enough reserves to cover the withdrawals? Isn't that why regulators were trying to shut down crypto, because it's not safe like a bank? Oh the irony.
The deposits are all good. Bank stockholders are completely screwed. Bondholders screwed to an uncertain level at this point.

It is a question of relative safety. All is finite. I suspect that current versions of cryptocurrency are more finite than current US Bank deposits. Time will tell. Not sure what you would consider "safer" than US Bank deposits or US Treasury instruments.
 
Am I understanding correctly that this year's bank failures occured because the banks did not have enough reserves to cover the withdrawals? Isn't that why regulators were trying to shut down crypto, because it's not safe like a bank? Oh the irony.

You believe there is a corollary with the bank failures and crypto? The FDIC that insures bank deposits up to 250K has less than 1% to cover deposits currently. This banking crisis is just starting. As more people move their deposits from the big banks which give 0.02% to money market funds and treasury notes yielding 4+%, I anticipate this crisis will get more, interesting to say the least.
 
You believe there is a corollary with the bank failures and crypto? The FDIC that insures bank deposits up to 250K has less than 1% to cover deposits currently. This banking crisis is just starting. As more people move their deposits from the big banks which give 0.02% to money market funds and treasury notes yielding 4+%, I anticipate this crisis will get more, interesting to say the least.

No idea, I just thought it was funny how BTC of all things was in a safer place than the nation's 14th largest bank.

The Ethereum Shapella upgrade came and went. Everyone can withdraw their previously locked ETH now. Many feared everyone would sell their previously locked ETH and the price would dump. Turns out it was a non event, a nothing burger.
 
No idea, I just thought it was funny how BTC of all things was in a safer place than the nation's 14th largest bank.

The Ethereum Shapella upgrade came and went. Everyone can withdraw their previously locked ETH now. Many feared everyone would sell their previously locked ETH and the price would dump. Turns out it was a non event, a nothing burger.

There could be another drop in BTC priced in USD (especially if the Federal Reserve decides to raise rates today). But I see the uncoupling of BTC (crypto less so currently) is starting to happen in real time.

The only choices the Fed has at this point is more pain via continued interest rate increase (contraction in money available) or decrease in interest rates (increase in money supply, cheaper debt) with inflation at a 40 year high. eventually the money printer will turn back on because thats the way the current system is designed. And when it does, I anticipate hard assets (Gold/Silver/BTC/Crypto/Commodities/Land) will increase in price with BTC leading the way in terms of % priced in the freshly new printed USD
 
There could be another drop in BTC priced in USD (especially if the Federal Reserve decides to raise rates today). But I see the uncoupling of BTC (crypto less so currently) is starting to happen in real time.

The only choices the Fed has at this point is more pain via continued interest rate increase (contraction in money available) or decrease in interest rates (increase in money supply, cheaper debt) with inflation at a 40 year high. eventually the money printer will turn back on because thats the way the current system is designed. And when it does, I anticipate hard assets (Gold/Silver/BTC/Crypto/Commodities/Land) will increase in price with BTC leading the way in terms of % priced in the freshly new printed USD
The Money Printer will always get turned back on. The finances are upside-down and that's the only way to keep the Ponzi going. All other options have been exhausted.
 
I’m not sure the economy is that bad. Feels like we’ll have a recession but things actually have been either holding steady or slightly improving. I think the stock market and some of the major cryptocurrencies have rebounded.
 
Think about it, the gov and Fed are bailing out the western alliance through all these facilities and bailing out banks that are failing with money printing and the global economy is still slowing down. All the debt that the sovereigns and bank holds and it can’t go any higher so if it can’t go up, it goes down. Something we haven’t seen in almost 100 years. We’re in historical times I’m taking notes.
 
Right and we did ok over the past 100 years. Not saying there won’t be hard times in the future but not seeing the catastrophic economic collapse being predicted.
 
I mean historically there have always been countries with weak and strong economies. Somehow, we’ve made it through ok. I’m not a psychic but I like those odds!
 
Ohh I feel very confident that we’ll get through it. But I believe because the money and economy is so broken, there’s a chance we have tough times ahead of us. History says humans get through it. I just believe they historical times we’re experiencing is not done yet.
the world only ends once though, so why bet it
 
Ahh ok. Well not sure how they’ll react to a possible overhaul in monetary policy, the way the western world looks at value and money and the slow introduction to internet based money, many which will be non sovereign.
 
Ahh ok. Well not sure how they’ll react to a possible overhaul in monetary policy, the way the western world looks at value and money and the slow introduction to internet based money, many which will be non sovereign.
Same way I'll react to the next Star Wars movie.

Except FTL space travel and light sabers are a slightly more believable fantasy ...
 
With the debt ceiling shenanigans behind us (pending a vote), the money printer (via uncontrolled spending), is about to turn back on. I’m still regularly buying BTC dips. This bipartisan deal is horrible and I think we see it play out before the next presidential election. Caveat emptor
I haven't even looked at the"deal" because if you've been around long enough to understand this nonsense, the deal will have zero impact on anything. Window dressing. The debt will keep running up and math illiterates will continue to think not raising the ceiling is the problem and not the debt itself.

Each party will claim themselves the savior and the lemming supporters will fall in line with excellent obedience. Carry on.
 
The deal as presently constituted allows for no cap on debt till January 2025 (after the elections). The national debt would increase by close to $2,000,000,000,000.00 almost instantly as the Treasury would need to raise capital. But who’s going to buy the debt? And who’s paying for it? And if the federal reserve is going to buy it, where is the money coming from? What a a cluster. This is moving faster than I thought it would.

I would suggest people learn about counterparty risk.
 

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Binance.US banned from fiat deposits and withdrawals by the SEC. BNB dead.

Robinhood to delist MATIC, ADA, and SOL. They're dying now.

This is why you should only buy BTC and ETH.
 
With this recent drop being attributed to funds no longer providing liquidity to crypto markets, I anticipate a drop in the coming months in the traditional markets. Crypto typically sells off first since it’s easiest to sell (24/7) and way out the risk curve. If more liquidity is needed, then we’ll probably see more selling in the traditional market. If the top 9 companies (by market cap) are holding up the S&P as a whole for the year, what will happen if funds are forced to sell?

I think we see more pain in all markets (moreso in equities than BTC and crypto) moving forward. Once the pain is felt and enough grumbling is heard from the boomers (I think Q3 or 4) we’ll see the money printer turned on and markets move accordingly.
 
With this recent drop being attributed to funds no longer providing liquidity to crypto markets, I anticipate a drop in the coming months in the traditional markets. Crypto typically sells off first since it’s easiest to sell (24/7) and way out the risk curve. If more liquidity is needed, then we’ll probably see more selling in the traditional market. If the top 9 companies (by market cap) are holding up the S&P as a whole for the year, what will happen if funds are forced to sell?

I think we see more pain in all markets (moreso in equities than BTC and crypto) moving forward. Once the pain is felt and enough grumbling is heard from the boomers (I think Q3 or 4) we’ll see the money printer turned on and markets move accordingly.

Doesn't look like the main cryptos will have a new ATH in 2025 but the main ones aren't going anywhere since big players are in them. I highly anticipate a run up in election year in equities and a correction late this year as things break with the higher rates. Commercial real estate is going to be hit hard and then trickle down into everything. Fun times ahead. Sitting on the sidelines with 5% ain't all that bad.
 
Doesn't look like the main cryptos will have a new ATH in 2025 but the main ones aren't going anywhere since big players are in them. I highly anticipate a run up in election year in equities and a correction late this year as things break with the higher rates. Commercial real estate is going to be hit hard and then trickle down into everything. Fun times ahead. Sitting on the sidelines with 5% ain't all that bad.

I think the current administration is trying hard not to see a run up in crypto as the economy falters with an election on the horizon. They obviously don’t like the technology and are trying their hardest regulate it to oblivion, make obtaining it difficult, litigate to oblivion, and chase American crypto entrepreneurs out of the US. If they succeed, it’ll be one of the biggest missteps in American history. I just hodl and buy dips, because my thesis is adoption is coming whether they like it or not.
 
I think the current administration is trying hard not to see a run up in crypto as the economy falters with an election on the horizon. They obviously don’t like the technology and are trying their hardest regulate it to oblivion, make obtaining it difficult, litigate to oblivion, and chase American crypto entrepreneurs out of the US. If they succeed, it’ll be one of the biggest missteps in American history. I just hodl and buy dips, because my thesis is adoption is coming whether they like it or not.

Yes, the narrative would not look great for fiat if btc for example was 35k and eth over 2k while banks were going under.. They want you to keep your money in the banks. Had they not done this to crypto people would be buying crytpo and watching it run and thinking why the heck was i earning .0001 percent all these years. But yes there is no stopping this technology. Delayed at best. Isn't the timing of all this funny?? With blackrock on board it's just a question of when imo not IF.
 
What does "adoption" mean to you? If you have a thesis about this, surely you can lay it out in a paragraph or two?

How do you respond to this part from this video? Watch for 2 minutes.



Adoption is increase in the number of digital wallets, increase in velocity of money (very few claim to be money, currency or digital cash), people using the rails without even knowing it. Price imo is the hype/mania/panic that is seen in parabolic price action. There are engineers working on the rails. I’ve spoken about a lot of things in this thread (I know it’s a long thread). I could give examples of things that are coming but I won’t feed the naysayers today.

As far as NFTs I believe there here to stay for a number of reasons. NFTs like crypto punks, bored ape yacht clubs, etc is a digital flex (not sure how old you are but I’m a GenX). As our children are dragged more into the digital world (for better or worse) their opinion of what holds value their will evolve over time. One of kids is into Roblox and to get ‘skins’ (like an NFT) requires trading USD for robux to purchase these skins. NFTs (especially the valuable ones like the one mentioned above) could be their digital profile or a celebrity like Jay-Z or Steph curry will use it for social media profile (like they do today).

The other use i see it for is document verification and decentralized ID (medical license, drivers license, insurance etc). I spoke about this in the past. Using a well secured chain that’s immutable (like BTC) you could have verified information that can’t be altered.

I don’t own any NFTs but I see a potential usecase.

I’m personally interested in monetary policy, cybersecurity, lending/borrowing and markets.

I look at this not for today but as our children who grow up with iPads and phones in their hands and understand value in the digital sphere. That also goes with my long term investment thesis. I sometimes Day trade the S&P but that’s a totally different topic.
 
Adoption is increase in the number of digital wallets, increase in velocity of money (very few claim to be money, currency or digital cash), people using the rails without even knowing it. Price imo is the hype/mania/panic that is seen in parabolic price action. There are engineers working on the rails. I’ve spoken about a lot of things in this thread (I know it’s a long thread). I could give examples of things that are coming but I won’t feed the naysayers today.

As far as NFTs I believe there here to stay for a number of reasons. NFTs like crypto punks, bored ape yacht clubs, etc is a digital flex (not sure how old you are but I’m a GenX). As our children are dragged more into the digital world (for better or worse) their opinion of what holds value their will evolve over time. One of kids is into Roblox and to get ‘skins’ (like an NFT) requires trading USD for robux to purchase these skins. NFTs (especially the valuable ones like the one mentioned above) could be their digital profile or a celebrity like Jay-Z or Steph curry will use it for social media profile (like they do today).

The other use i see it for is document verification and decentralized ID (medical license, drivers license, insurance etc). I spoke about this in the past. Using a well secured chain that’s immutable (like BTC) you could have verified information that can’t be altered.

I don’t own any NFTs but I see a potential usecase.

I’m personally interested in monetary policy, cybersecurity, lending/borrowing and markets.

I look at this not for today but as our children who grow up with iPads and phones in their hands and understand value in the digital sphere. That also goes with my long term investment thesis. I sometimes Day trade the S&P but that’s a totally different topic.
I'll take a break from my usual snide mockery of the crypto world 🙂 and pivot to more serious mockery. Before that, I'll say that I agree with some of these aspirations and ideals. I just don't believe they'll work, or provide the promised utility/value.

For one thing, these use cases don't really offer significant advantages over the existing system we have.

NFTs? Contract laws as they exist work just fine, and have for literally centuries, if not millenia. Gaming?!? That's the killer app?!? There's no real need for them. There's no problem to solve.

Digital wallets? There's no practical advantage over a Visa card, ACH transfer, wire transfer, digital check ... and plenty of drawbacks. Irreversible transactions carry a host of real problems related to fraud.

Velocity of money? There's no need for large transfers at 2 AM on holidays or when banks are closed. Wire transfers are instant and escrow services exist. What possible advantage is there to buying a house with BTC over dollars?

Crypto enthusiasts talk about the platformless/distributed model as a feature, but it's just as much a bug. We see how completely unregulated markets and poorly regulated markets breed fraud and scams. Crime, of course, is one area that crypto certainly excels at.


It all sort of reminds me of the vote-over-the-internet advocates. A dubious solution to a nonexistent problem, that creates risk and security problems for no real benefit, the only appeal of which is some vague notion of convenience and Hey It's Digital And Modern so it must be an improvement. Because kids with iPads will be comfortable with it, it must be progress?


The only real compelling (to me) argument for cryptocurrency is the anti-inflation one, in which maybe they could be a store of value vs the dollar or Euro or other "printable" currencies. And obviously that hasn't worked at all. The volatility of the "premier" crypto (just BTC and Ethereum at this point?) make it nothing more than a high risk speculative gamble. To say nothing of all the other ****coins, and the exchange scams, and massive fraud surrounding the industry. Store of wealth? BTC price manipulation and pump/dump cycles coordinated by whales are obvious to even casual observers.

But workable inflation hedges exist without crypto. Lots of investments denominated in government currencies hedge or beat inflation. Everything from commodities to real estate to partial ownership in companies that sell goods and services for profit.

Tax avoidance or evasion by holding crypto as an asset? LOL, good luck with that.


I note you're not touting El Salvador's "adoption" of BTC as some great bellwether of the future any more. Which is sort of funny, because that particular ****show vortex of chaos is a perfect encapsulation of everything that's wrong with this fantasy of crypto adoption.

The libertarian in me wanted crypto to work as a real, decentralized, free-of-government, usable, secure, efficient currency - but it doesn't, and won't.

And then there's the whole ecoterrorism angle, with massive energy resources wasted to "mine" crypto and maintain this absurdity. Wasteful and destructive.
 
This stuff is falling out of favor because it does literally everything an average consumer would want from it worse than systems we already have, and makes average consumers extremely vulnerable to identity theft and fraud. In no world except that of techno-fetishist narcissists are these ideas taken seriously, and that's for the good of everyone in the developed world.
There it is.

Perfectly and concisely summarized.
 
I'll address each of these, as I have some time today.

Digital wallets have never been, and have no plans to be secure in any fashion. This is addressed in the linked documentary, but all digital wallets are currently vulnerable to attack if someone knows your digital wallet address, which is all publicly available on the blockchain, and can never be hidden or deleted since it's publicly available and immutable, as you say.

Literally, you can drop a token into someone's wallet and wait for them to activate it and steal someone's money. This is a common scam. Adoption of digital wallets will never happen by anyone who values their property and privacy. It's pure fantasy. We already have digital wallets. They're called banks. Those banks have a huge incentive to keep your money secure from attacks, and employ billions of dollars to create the security systems to do that. If someone opens a digital wallet and puts assets in it, they forgo all the protection that give banks (digital wallets) their entire value to consumers.

NFTs do function as a digital flex, but only in the sense that they act as a marketing tool for cryptocurrency itself. It's easy for a few crypto whales to run up the value of an NFT by hyping it and subsequently rug pulling any normal person who wants to buy one. There is basically no use case for any of the digital art NFTs, as they are simply a pointer on a web address that indicates that at some point, you bought something, and everyone knows you bought it (except no one of any substance cares about it at all. It's basically showing someone a receipt for a Rolex instead of the watch itself, pretty unimpressive to say the least.)

What you're describing in Roblox are not NFTs. They're just run of the mill DLC that every game designed today uses to take advantage of people who want to add some sort of "unique" flair to their digital avatars or pay to win in their respective game universes. It's been the main business model of most video games, but functionally revolves only around USDs. These people aren't charging you in crypto because transactions this small make that medium of exchange all but useless and more expensive than its worth in processing time and/or gas fees.

Using this for medical records, licenses, or personal documents on a publicly available and easily accessible document like the blockchain is a horrible, horrible idea for so many reasons I don't know where to begin. Anyone who would trust their personal info to the blockchain in the form of a digital wallet or rolodex that is vulnerable to so many means of attack is a complete idiot, and this will never see widespread adoption except by people who have a hankering for the worst cases of identity theft you'll ever see.

Not to mention that the blockchain is not immutable in the sense that there's only one, and never has been. It's been forked and rolled back a number of times in the past. There's zero reason it couldn't happen again. In fact, the blockchain has been hardforked more than a handful of times in just under a decade.

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This stuff is falling out of favor because it does literally everything an average consumer would want from it worse than systems we already have, and makes average consumers extremely vulnerable to identity theft and fraud. In no world except that of techno-fetishist narcissists are these ideas taken seriously, and that's for the good of everyone in the developed world.

I see crypto people's obsession with this as a psychological confabulation to convince themselves of the value of something that is ultimately a speculative asset. They have to convince themselves of all the use cases in a religious like fashion to negotiate the mental block they have about pouring money into a useless internet token. Everything that springs from it is driven by wealthy people who have vested interests to advertise this product to foolish average consumers who see this as their way to get rich because "It's the future."

The great thing about this state of mind is you can act like rapturists who constantly preach that the end of the world is coming in year 20xx. It's an inherently unfalsifiable thesis because you can always just point to the future and say "It'll happen soon, just you wait!" It's similar to the religious tendencies that certain meme stock followers or collector communities or doomsday preppers have.

I'm not saying that you're a fool, but I am saying that anyone with real sense and knowledge of this stuff is just observing the "use cases" that people put forth and laughing at them. You're just like anyone else in the community, blinded by promises of a utopian future from people who have a vested interest in convincing you that it's coming. Anyone can fall prey to this stuff, so I have more sympathy than anything else for people who look at this as a real future. You're obviously free to spend your money on what you want, and I hope it does pay off for you someday and you can retire and say "I was right." My guess is none of that fancy future will happen, even if you do get rich from speculating on internet tokens.

We'll easily be able to revisit this thread in 10 or 20 years and see how it went.

Just give me the date BTC is going to $0 USD so I can get out in time
 
With CPI numbers falling slower than expected month over month, I think we’re getting closer to a pause in rising cost of money (interest rates) and more money printing. If the Fed doesn’t stop deflation (the antithesis of Central Banking) could potentially accelerate and reek havoc on the economy. The Fed and treasury are really in a tough spot. Cheap money and increased inflation or increased rates, deflation and continued failures or banks and business.
 
I said I hope you get rich from it. That doesn’t mean that the tech isn’t worthless for what people say it is supposed to be able to do.

That’s really the biggest problem I have with people like you and the crypto industry. You plug your ears and yammer on about “the future bro” when facing actual criticism instead of admitting how useless the Ether or Bitcoin is for anything but speculation.

I have absolutely no problem with you
 
Crypto.com is dead.

The SEC is going after Binance.US, Coinbase and Kraken. If those get banned, then how is anyone supposed to cash out?
 
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