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How much did you bet?
Biden Out of Race
- Thread starter DirtDocMD
- Start date
How much did you bet?
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We should also start a thread to profit from Trump presidency. With high inflation and cheap $, the working class MAGA will be fxcked. Buy gun stocks? Buy their houses when they go broke? lol
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This is what I wrote when I got home from my golf round at 651pm Central. Way before any voting results.
Polymarket betting Trump to 67%, close to peek. DJT after hours up 16%
I have not turned on the news because its a bunch of talking heads who knows very little saying the same. Its close. It could go either way.
Follow the market and it will tell you who is winning.
Splenda - It's gonna be a long night, my friend.
Nimbus - Who are these insiders? Election workers and election officials? Jockey clubbers? If not, how do they get their information?
PGG - Again. What makes you think their internal polling is any better than all of the other polling?
I wrote at 745pm Polymarket Has DJT at 75%. If this stays this high for the next hour when all the East cost/Pa closes, its over
Nimbus - So campaign workers and advisors are betting on polymarket or leaking to bettors? How late can we still place bets? Friday?
804pm I wrote - 2 days ago a republican sweep of POTUS and both houses of congress was 37%. Currently trading at 57% to win it all tonight.
This was the time I went to get my celebratory Whiskey on the rocks. Angels Envy is quite good BTW.
837pm I wrote -
Polymarket
President DJT 80%
Penn DJT 70%
Ga DJT 92%
michigan DJT 57%
Wisconsin DJT 61%
Nevada 71%
Aruizona 91%
Good night KH
910Pm I wrote-
Polymarket
President DJT 81%
Senate Repub 98%
House Rep 64%
Republican sweep 71%
This was when I went downstairs to inform my wife that it was over and she thought I was making it up. CNN/MSNBC had all swing states "Too close to call". I told her that DJT will likely sweep but may lose Michigan. I remember looking at the results and at that time KH was comfortably ahead in Penn. When Polls says one thing and polymarket moves another way, go with the big whales. They know and that is why the regular people have no chance against the whales with $$$.
Polymarket betting Trump to 67%, close to peek. DJT after hours up 16%
I have not turned on the news because its a bunch of talking heads who knows very little saying the same. Its close. It could go either way.
Follow the market and it will tell you who is winning.
Splenda - It's gonna be a long night, my friend.
Nimbus - Who are these insiders? Election workers and election officials? Jockey clubbers? If not, how do they get their information?
PGG - Again. What makes you think their internal polling is any better than all of the other polling?
I wrote at 745pm Polymarket Has DJT at 75%. If this stays this high for the next hour when all the East cost/Pa closes, its over
Nimbus - So campaign workers and advisors are betting on polymarket or leaking to bettors? How late can we still place bets? Friday?
804pm I wrote - 2 days ago a republican sweep of POTUS and both houses of congress was 37%. Currently trading at 57% to win it all tonight.
This was the time I went to get my celebratory Whiskey on the rocks. Angels Envy is quite good BTW.
837pm I wrote -
Polymarket
President DJT 80%
Penn DJT 70%
Ga DJT 92%
michigan DJT 57%
Wisconsin DJT 61%
Nevada 71%
Aruizona 91%
Good night KH
910Pm I wrote-
Polymarket
President DJT 81%
Senate Repub 98%
House Rep 64%
Republican sweep 71%
This was when I went downstairs to inform my wife that it was over and she thought I was making it up. CNN/MSNBC had all swing states "Too close to call". I told her that DJT will likely sweep but may lose Michigan. I remember looking at the results and at that time KH was comfortably ahead in Penn. When Polls says one thing and polymarket moves another way, go with the big whales. They know and that is why the regular people have no chance against the whales with $$$.
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Rogan and Musk right before election. This is what swayed Rogan to endorse DJT. I am sure the left will explain everything away but quite factual.
Remember Musk was Democratic for years. Rogan was Progressive Bernie fan and said he would never Endorse DJT.
When you allow your eyes to be open, its OK to learn. It is OK to be wrong. It is OK to come to the party of the working low/middle class.
Or you can stay with the Democratic party run by elitist who tells you why you are wrong for not thinking their way just like many on here. I almost fell out of my chair when one of the CNN left wing commentators said the democratic party is a party of elitist who do not listen but chastise/tell others why they are wrong.
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After Harris’s Election Loss, Devastated Democrats Play the Blame Game
In interviews, lawmakers and strategists tried to explain Kamala Harris’s defeat, pointing to misinformation, the Gaza war, a toxic Democratic brand and the party’s approach to transgender issues.
Democrats can't get out of their own way.
This is considered a incendiary opinion in the Democratic party:
"Representative Seth Moulton of Massachusetts,..."
"Democrats spend way too much time trying not to offend anyone rather than being brutally honest about the challenges many Americans face,” Mr. Moulton said. “I have two little girls, I don’t want them getting run over on a playing field by a male or formerly male athlete, but as a Democrat I’m supposed to be afraid to say that.”
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Democrats love to scold and shame.
Look at Obama scolding Black men for not voting for Harris.
This is the progressive/liberal MO.
They don't realize that scolding people doesn't work.
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Illegal Immigrants just raped and killed someone. But its OK because crime happens everywhere. Lets give them a hotel near Central Park.
Trans winning in girls sports. But its OK, its only a few competition
Reparation. Its OK, its only $$$$. Who cares if Marcus grew up in the 90210 with a rich dad.
Cancel school loans. Its OK, they were 18 and could not make an adult choice.
While middle/low class worker who is struggling to pay the bills look up and thinking is Dems the party of the people/working class? Getting chastised for not voting KH because they know what is good for you. B. Obama chastising Black men when he is uber rich with his kids in the best schools with all the privileges of the ruling class?
Its quite amazing how elitist this party has become and how many on here don't even know they are elitist supporting all of this.
Trans winning in girls sports. But its OK, its only a few competition
Reparation. Its OK, its only $$$$. Who cares if Marcus grew up in the 90210 with a rich dad.
Cancel school loans. Its OK, they were 18 and could not make an adult choice.
While middle/low class worker who is struggling to pay the bills look up and thinking is Dems the party of the people/working class? Getting chastised for not voting KH because they know what is good for you. B. Obama chastising Black men when he is uber rich with his kids in the best schools with all the privileges of the ruling class?
Its quite amazing how elitist this party has become and how many on here don't even know they are elitist supporting all of this.
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D
deleted1130227
So true. 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue is now in the sex offender data registry.
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They don't realize for the past 150 pages that everything they said was elitist mentality. I know better than you. You are wrong. You are immoral and ignorant. You don't see all the illegal immigrants are good for our country?
Sunny on the View is literally the most racists and sexists black commentator and she just do not see it. Poor me. How can the voters hate black people so much. Hate women so much. My kids are going to live in a more racist/sexist society. My daughter is having her rights taken from her. Black woman are always kept down.
WTF Sunny. You went to ND law school. You live in a 22 room, 10 bedroom/10 bath house in New York. Your son goes to Harvard. Your daughter goes to Cornell. How disingenuous and myopic can you be? How dumb can your cohost be to nod in agreement when you live in a 22 bedroom house.
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Leftists NEVER riot. They ransack stores b/c they hungry or basic clothes or need that latest LV purse or those nike shoe stores. They only burned down those fast food joints because they needed food. They only occupied major streets for weeks because they just needed street lights to read when it got dark. They just take over Universities because they want to be educated.
Nothing to see. I have never seen a leftist riot.
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Hahahahahahahaha 🤣
Dude, here you go with The View again. It’s hilarious. Every other post you are talking about The View. Do you have a job or are you sitting home watching The View?
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DJT Just named the 1st woman ever to be chief of staff. I am sure cnn/MSNBC will tout how great it is for a woman to break the ceiling.
Looks like DJT loves and respects women.
Looks like DJT loves and respects women.
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Hahahahahahahaha 🤣
Dude, here you go with The View again. It’s hilarious. Every other post you are talking about The View. Do you have a job or are you sitting home watching The View?
I know you are projecting now and how depressed you must be that everything you hold dear is wrong. Laughable how you morphed from Left wing nut to Conspiracy theory Nut. Bravo.... great job
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Dude your posts go off the chain late in the evening. You’ve posted basically the same stream of consciousness post about 36 times, and your obsession with The View (which no one here has seemingly watched) is super strange.
We get it. You’re excited. You wanted Trump to win. You love The View. It’s all fine.
Congrats on your win. I’m interested to see what Trump does w the mandate.
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I won a lot of money on a big bet. How can I be depressed?
Keep on watching The View, pal.
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Good pick
Sorry not enough sneaker shops around me.
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Buddy i don't know what any of that stuff is and I don't give a ****... just stop posting the same ****ing thing for 3 days in a row...ahhh, you are quite the fool.
It was not 50/50. If it was, then you could have been rich picking KH who was at 35% for a long time.
Polymatter picked every single swing state. If it was 50/50 then the chance of getting 7 right is less than 1%. Try again and educate yourself.
Let me help you out alittle. The MSM 10 hours ago says its too close to call on who will win the HOUSE. Blah blah blah.
Republicans win the House and cement party trifecta for Trump
Republicans have reached the 218-seat threshold needed to control the US House of Representatives.www.bbc.com
Polymarket has it at 96% Repub control.
House control after 2024 election?
Polymarket | The 2024 United States House elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with all 435 seats in the House being contested. This market will reso...polymarket.com
Here is another. 85% repub will get 220-224. Lets see if polymatter is right.
# of Republican House seats after Election? (brackets)
Polymarket | The 2024 United States House elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with all 435 seats in the House being contested. This market will reso...
If you think its 50/50, I will give you 2:1 odds. Whatever or any amount of $$ under 10K. Now you can go back to your corner and get educated.
Not everyone on here is from the US.
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This thread seems like it is nearing the end of its lifespan.
Anyway, I stand by my central thesis. The rich (elites, powerful, etc.) use the media to move the masses (left, right, doesn’t matter). The old media was the newspapers and nightly news. The new media is the social networks and cable news. This is not a new idea and there are many good books and resources on the topic. The MSM is driven by profit, which is why they sow division and generate outrage, but ultimately the media exists to generate consent of the governed for the wishes of the elite. Again, this is an old idea and nothing revolutionary.
So the question becomes Why? What do the elites want? What am I missing? Well, we are currently on the cusp of a massive technological revolution. Laugh if you want, but artificial intelligence has the potential to completely upend society as we know. There’s lots of information on this topic, so I won’t go into details. (As an aside, ChatGPT was released partially to make the public think AI was some innocent, cute thing to be trusted). The rich who are pushing for rapid development of AI have hubris and don’t want any oversight or regulation. In other words, they think they are smarter than everyone else. They also know that an enormous redistribution of wealth and resources is necessary to develop AI as quickly as they want (the same goes for colonizing space). The rapid pace desired by these elites will necessarily worsen the quality of life for many people. The wealth disparities will be gigantic.
We’ve seen this story time again when we go through technological revolutions. The controllers of the technology amass massive amounts of wealth while the quality of life of the masses suffer. Eventually, technology has improved the quality of life of the masses, but not until after a period of suffering. That may happen with AI, but the technology is different enough that I’m not so sure it will. We have the potential to create something that is more intelligent than ourselves. We’ve also shown how easy we are to be controlled by media. Bad combo.
That’s the nuts and bolts of my “crazy” conspiracy theory. It’s an interesting topic that I wish more politicians had some idea about. Sadly, we waste our time talking about gender. Do I think super intelligent AI will be unleashed during Trump’s presidency? No. But I do think the wheels will be set in motion. I would rather see AI developed with public oversight and regulation. I hope that’s what happens.
In the meantime, I’ll be pestering my Republican congressman to make Trump keep his promise on eliminating the income tax. You should too.
Anyway, I stand by my central thesis. The rich (elites, powerful, etc.) use the media to move the masses (left, right, doesn’t matter). The old media was the newspapers and nightly news. The new media is the social networks and cable news. This is not a new idea and there are many good books and resources on the topic. The MSM is driven by profit, which is why they sow division and generate outrage, but ultimately the media exists to generate consent of the governed for the wishes of the elite. Again, this is an old idea and nothing revolutionary.
So the question becomes Why? What do the elites want? What am I missing? Well, we are currently on the cusp of a massive technological revolution. Laugh if you want, but artificial intelligence has the potential to completely upend society as we know. There’s lots of information on this topic, so I won’t go into details. (As an aside, ChatGPT was released partially to make the public think AI was some innocent, cute thing to be trusted). The rich who are pushing for rapid development of AI have hubris and don’t want any oversight or regulation. In other words, they think they are smarter than everyone else. They also know that an enormous redistribution of wealth and resources is necessary to develop AI as quickly as they want (the same goes for colonizing space). The rapid pace desired by these elites will necessarily worsen the quality of life for many people. The wealth disparities will be gigantic.
We’ve seen this story time again when we go through technological revolutions. The controllers of the technology amass massive amounts of wealth while the quality of life of the masses suffer. Eventually, technology has improved the quality of life of the masses, but not until after a period of suffering. That may happen with AI, but the technology is different enough that I’m not so sure it will. We have the potential to create something that is more intelligent than ourselves. We’ve also shown how easy we are to be controlled by media. Bad combo.
That’s the nuts and bolts of my “crazy” conspiracy theory. It’s an interesting topic that I wish more politicians had some idea about. Sadly, we waste our time talking about gender. Do I think super intelligent AI will be unleashed during Trump’s presidency? No. But I do think the wheels will be set in motion. I would rather see AI developed with public oversight and regulation. I hope that’s what happens.
In the meantime, I’ll be pestering my Republican congressman to make Trump keep his promise on eliminating the income tax. You should too.
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Got it dude. you don't have to log on. Don't read an american political thread. Seems simple.
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Did he grab her by the P or assault her in a dressing room?
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Maybe but doubt he called her garbage.
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I think we finished around the same time, mid 2010s? For our cohort, private practice was a huge disappointment/scam as a lot of practices sold out or were unprofitable before we became partners, and some of us had tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars skimmed off us each year. I don’t know anyone who graduated with me who became a partner and made the money thrown around on here or got any sort of buyout, and everyone today is doing better than before 2020. So I get what you’re saying.
However, on the aggregate trumps policies were awful for doctors. As USCGhost mentioned, SALT caps, NSA, small business carve outs in the tax bill that excluded doctors, all of it left me worse off financially by the end of the four years and put us in a real rough spot as a profession. Also let’s remember that private groups had been able to limp along in the setting of minimal increases in reimbursement…as long as there was no inflation. The covid bailouts helped the tech and other white collar workers way more than us and the ensuing inflation really did private practice in.
All that to say, while anesthesiologists are doing very well right now, I’m not confident anything Trump does this term will help that continue. I hope I’m wrong.
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Elon is doing his part to populate Austin with IVF babies. His trans daughter disowned him and is leaving the country. Family values indeed.
Elon Musk’s Daughter Shares Heartbreaking Message After Trump Win
Vivian Wilson, Elon Musk’s transgender daughter, spoke out after Donald Trump’s victory.
newrepublic.com
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It's no real inside information. It's analyzing what the results are saying and what countries are reporting and extrapolating how the rest of the state will vote based on previous history and voter registration.
In other words, in a fairly balanced state if heavily Democrat areas report first and are usually 70-75% Democrat wins but only come in 53/47 for Kamala, then you know she will lose that lead and lose the state when the Republican counties report.
That's what the NYT needle and bettors take into account. Agree this race was over by 9pm.
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I know, I’m being mildly facetious. I never benefitted from the tax cuts and might have come out slightly worse there. However, it is true that my pay has increased markedly since 2022, with a decrease in workload. I’m not afraid to change jobs or leave bad situations. I have enjoyed watching a few of these fake partnerships become overworked hospital employees…schadenfreude, I know. However, I think there is something to the fact that you no longer have a few fat cat anesthesiologists keeping the money for themselves because the hospitals are forced to pay everyone equally. The super partners did worse and the sucker employees have done better. The irony is many of those anesthesiologists blamed Biden on the NSA because they were uniformed as to when the law was signed and it went into effect in 2022.
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The bettors with brains are using straight math analysis. This is why the IT strike almost cancelled the highly accurate NYT needle. It's all public information they are gathering as they watch the results come in. They're just better at it than Joe Blow.
By the time Trump crossed into the 70's percent Tuesday night it might as well been 100%. The only thing preventing that were people not reading the tea leaves correctly and throwing their money away on Kamala.
By the time Trump crossed into the 70's percent Tuesday night it might as well been 100%. The only thing preventing that were people not reading the tea leaves correctly and throwing their money away on Kamala.
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It means something if you’re a fan of maps of the United States that are mostly red, yet have a faint blue border. It’s tough to find these in mint condition because so many of them have tear stains, which turns the borders a bit purple.
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Oprah, is that you?
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Especially her husband is an Haitian orthopedic surgeon that probably eats cat/dog. Lol
By the way, Cornell and Brown are fake Ivy league schools.
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So was COVID released on purpose to drive the divide and increase the wealth disparities? Because that definitely did happen. Was the vaccine a test of compliance? Because that fits in with your model.
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I want to read an American political thread, I just don't want to read your constant spam about how you were so smart to predict the winner of a 2 horse race down to some random betting app
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No. COVID drove us indoors and online. ZOOM meetings and FaceTime. It provided massive amounts of data in a short period of time to allow for the development of these first large language model AI. The other answers to your questions are largely irrelevant and just political pandering by MSM to create division and outrage. COVID was about data collection. That’s all. Purposefully released? Possibly. Silicon Valley probably played a role in its release with China as an easy scapegoat.
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Compliance is already demonstrated every time you pick up your phone or log onto social media and give your data away. People talk about the dangers of 1984 in front of their Alexa speakers.
Privacy is one of the most important and fundamental human rights and we’ve given it away in the name of easy entertainment and convenience. You can’t challenge the status quo without privacy. You can’t plot a revolution without privacy.
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The point he’s making is that everyone called him and others idiots for thinking that oddsmakers such as polymarket’s predicted outcomes were more reliable than the polls (polymarket was right about nearly 100%)
That I know of, none of those posters have come back to acknowledge how wrong they were. Even the news outlets have come out and said that polymarket was the only ones who accurately predicted the outcome.
If you’re going to call someone stupid and shame them on an Internet forum and act like you know so much more about a topic and you are proven to be 100% wrong, those posters should have the decency to come back and eat some crow and apologize.
Heck, even Rowsdower came back after the Biden was pulled from the ticket and said he was wrong after he said it would never happen.
That is the only reason he’s bringing it up. I assume…
We see the same with the left leaning media. They state all of these crazy things and then come back the next day and act as if they knew something all along and act like they never said what they said. Scarborough comes to mind as the worst example of that. We see it on this forum as well. “Biden is sharp as a tack” when everyone knew he wasn’t. “Trump wants to have Liz Cheney executed” when it’s clear that is not what was said. People just want to see some accountability. I know I would. If you’ve been wrong so blatantly, just own up and say so.
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Lots of narcissism in these forums and lashing out like a child if they don't like what you say. If Trump didn't admit being wrong in 2020, why should they? Similar personalities yet they hate to admit it.
So you voted for a serial fraudster who.attempted to overthrow the government to "own the libs"?
Well true colors finally shine through.
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What you don't say?! Wait say that again please I want to hear more about this.
The more important thing to ask is, are the democrat policies THAT bad to where people would still vote for Trump? Yeah. Yeah, they are. Do you leave the house?
2020 is looking more like a fluke Biden win aided by Covid.
1. Economy/inflation
2. Immigration
3. Foreign wars
Like it, or not, Trump “answered” these questions, when they were asked (both in his previous term, and during this campaign). Lotta folks don’t like those answers, or don’t believe them, but he answered.
Kamala didn’t have an “answer” for these questions. When any attempt WAS made by her to answer them, the response was either “Ditto what Joe did.”, or was SO contradictory to her previous 20 years in politics that NO ONE believed it, not just “a lotta folks”.
Abortion?? Well, we know HER policies. Trump had said he wanted Roe v Wade struck down. He got that with his SC picks. He said he was leaving it alone/leaving it to the states, otherwise. You can believe it, or not, but it was his “answer”, and enough folks were ok enough with it, that it didn’t kneecap his chances.
The GOP and the Dems both have a 45% vote built in, anymore. The 10% “undecided”, figured they’d give Trump 2.0 a try, over Biden 2.0.
10-20 million illegal aliens, 30% inflation, and 2 foreign wars didn’t help the Dems. Feel free to respond with diatribes about whose fault that is, but most folks simply ask “Did that happen between 2016-2020, or 2020-2024??”, and vote accordingly.
2. Immigration
3. Foreign wars
Like it, or not, Trump “answered” these questions, when they were asked (both in his previous term, and during this campaign). Lotta folks don’t like those answers, or don’t believe them, but he answered.
Kamala didn’t have an “answer” for these questions. When any attempt WAS made by her to answer them, the response was either “Ditto what Joe did.”, or was SO contradictory to her previous 20 years in politics that NO ONE believed it, not just “a lotta folks”.
Abortion?? Well, we know HER policies. Trump had said he wanted Roe v Wade struck down. He got that with his SC picks. He said he was leaving it alone/leaving it to the states, otherwise. You can believe it, or not, but it was his “answer”, and enough folks were ok enough with it, that it didn’t kneecap his chances.
The GOP and the Dems both have a 45% vote built in, anymore. The 10% “undecided”, figured they’d give Trump 2.0 a try, over Biden 2.0.
10-20 million illegal aliens, 30% inflation, and 2 foreign wars didn’t help the Dems. Feel free to respond with diatribes about whose fault that is, but most folks simply ask “Did that happen between 2016-2020, or 2020-2024??”, and vote accordingly.
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Myself and the majority of our US citizens voted for the candidate (of the two viable candidates presented on the ballot) that I feel best aligns with my goals for the direction of leadership in our country.
I think most readers could have guessed who I would vote for based on posts from the past year.
I don’t care to “own the libs” but I do think it makes you a better citizen of this forum if you are honorable. If you have a hot take on a topic and turn out to be embarrassingly incorrect on it, you should have the guts to come back and own it and apologize to the person that you called out as an “idiot” or “naive” while portraying yourself as the local expert on the topic.
I do not recall using the term idiot, perhaps naive. I presented my reasons not to vote for Donald trump. I was not wrong. The information I presented was and is factually correct.
That the majority of Americans voted for Trump despite of this information is, to put it mildly, puzzling.
I owe no apology I never hinted or stated my vote was to hurt someone, unlike you with the tears remark.
I cannot help when faced with a mirror it makes you feel badly or lash out.
If you had any "guts" you would apologize for the tears remark and just say, as untrue as it is, that you voted for x reason.
- Joined
- Nov 12, 2018
- Messages
- 92
- Reaction score
- 166
Polymarket needs to set up a prop on “Will there be an election in 2028?” I’d place big bet on Yes. We’d see if the woke would be willing to put their money where their mouth is.
