Biden Out of Race

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Can you explain how this isn’t accurate?

Oh no, the government did something bad! It affected no one materially but….dictatorship because it’s bad!
Yes. A dictatorship can occur and you may not be personally impacted because you’re part of a privileged class. The “nobility.” See: every dictatorship that has ever occurred. Particularly early on, the 95%ile+ usually benefit, as they’re the ones with power to be placated.

A more productive thing to consider would be for you to write down what would indicate authoritarianism or a dictatorship to you, to prevent you from justifying whatever it is that happens next that is obviously in line with authoritarianism.

A few things that dictators/authoritarians do that have and are occurring:
-threaten and silence the press (banning AP from White House)
-threaten and silence universities (threaten federal funding in the name of antisemitism where in effect the demands to keep funding enable broad federal control of institutions) (threaten federal funding if transgender care is provided, so this is being curtailed for example at Penn)
-limited political pluralism (republicans getting in line behind Trump on many things they disagree with, to stay in power)
-rhetorical populism while enacting non-populist wealth grabbing policies (“clean air and water and food” while gutting regulations due to corporate interest)
-threatening elections (“ I may not have to run in 2028”, questioning 2020 election)
-civil liberty restrictions (military force against own people for the first time in decades despite local authorities not requesting this)
-strong man persona (stupid military parade)
-personal enrichment (complete flip flop on crypto right after his family made crypto companies/investments)
-identify an enemy from within to curtail dissent (doesn’t really matter who. It’s the immigrants this time)


Those are not necessarily the best or only examples, but there are numerous.
 
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Can you explain how this isn’t accurate?

Oh no, the government did something bad! It affected no one materially but….dictatorship because it’s bad!
You're trying really, really hard to pretend that Trump's systematic dismantling of every government agency that doesn't speak the lies he wants to hear is just business as usual and no big deal.

The BLS doesn't affect you or me a bit - except so far as it provides objective data that is critical to economic planning on big and small levels. Maybe the economy doesn't affect you?

The word "dictatorship" is hyperbole but authoritarianism exists on a scale with shades of gray. Do you really not care that multiple government agencies are being deliberately shifted from being open, transparent, and politically independent toward a more yes-man sycophantic structure?

Trump's too stupid to be an effective dictator, but he can break government enough that someone more intelligent and competent than him might get a foothold in the future.
 
You're trying really, really hard to pretend that Trump's systematic dismantling of every government agency that doesn't speak the lies he wants to hear is just business as usual and no big deal.

The BLS doesn't affect you or me a bit - except so far as it provides objective data that is critical to economic planning on big and small levels. Maybe the economy doesn't affect you?

The word "dictatorship" is hyperbole but authoritarianism exists on a scale with shades of gray. Do you really not care that multiple government agencies are being deliberately shifted from being open, transparent, and politically independent toward a more yes-man sycophantic structure?

Trump's too stupid to be an effective dictator, but he can break government enough that someone more intelligent and competent than him might get a foothold in the future.

The economy most definitely affects everyone in the country. However, the last time it truly affected most people was about 17 years ago.

You think anyone cared about BLS reports in summer of 2008? Transparent, made up, totally accurate, all a bunch of window dressing.

When people feel the squeeze in the American economy it’s extremely obvious. Hemming and hawing about whether this or that job report is accurate is just mental masturbation. The fact that anyone even bothers following them currently means that it’s just a stats project that can be used for political purposes.

When job losses starts affecting people seriously, you won’t need a BLS jobs report to tell you that.

How many BLS jobs reports did you need in October of 2008 to tell you there was a problem? Did you not believe something was happening prior to the reports that proved we were all *%#ed?
 
Yes. A dictatorship can occur and you may not be personally impacted because you’re part of a privileged class. The “nobility.” See: every dictatorship that has ever occurred. Particularly early on, the 95%ile+ usually benefit, as they’re the ones with power to be placated.

A more productive thing to consider would be for you to write down what would indicate authoritarianism or a dictatorship to you, to prevent you from justifying whatever it is that happens next that is obviously in line with authoritarianism.

A few things that dictators/authoritarians do that have and are occurring:
-threaten and silence the press (banning AP from White House)
-threaten and silence universities (threaten federal funding in the name of antisemitism where in effect the demands to keep funding enable broad federal control of institutions) (threaten federal funding if transgender care is provided, so this is being curtailed for example at Penn)
-limited political pluralism (republicans getting in line behind Trump on many things they disagree with, to stay in power)
-rhetorical populism while enacting non-populist wealth grabbing policies (“clean air and water and food” while gutting regulations due to corporate interest)
-threatening elections (“ I may not have to run in 2028”, questioning 2020 election)
-civil liberty restrictions (military force against own people for the first time in decades despite local authorities not requesting this)
-strong man persona (stupid military parade)
-personal enrichment (complete flip flop on crypto right after his family made crypto companies/investments)
-identify an enemy from within to curtail dissent (doesn’t really matter who. It’s the immigrants this time)


Those are not necessarily the best or only examples, but there are numerous.

Oh come on. You are acting like Trump is one step removed from dressing like Gadaffi and declaring himself supreme leader while executing his political opponents in the streets.

Here is a few other things that could be viewed as overly authoritarian:

-Threaten and silence social media (DOJ/FBI jawboning Covid 19 misinformation and election integrity claims)

-associating parental dissent against school boards to domestic terrorism

-limited political pluralism. Dude that’s the result of a two party system. However, dems also fell in line when Kamal was placed (not voted) as the Biden successor.

-threatening elections (lack of Harris participation in state primaries)

-civil liberty restrictions ( the party of extended Covid restrictions and keeping kids out of school, the party of anti 2A policies and red flag laws).

-“Strong man persona” (you literally tried to prop up a corpse for four years in an attempt to convince voters Biden was fit for office)

-personal enrichment (blanket pardoning family members? Six figure paintings?)

-identify an enemy within (deplorables->MAGA->white nationalists ring a bell?)

By your criteria, the Biden administration can be viewed as much an authoritarian threat as Trump.

The fact is even if you are against everything Trump does, the other branches of government are still functioning appropriately, even if they don’t currently align with your political ideology. Executive action only goes so far, the vast majority of which can be undone with the stroke of a pen by the next administration. Far from the makings of the next great totalitarian regime… So, maybe loosen your grip on those pearls a little bit, democracy is alive and well, it’s just not currently working toward your goals. Go out and do something about it if you want I change it.
 
Yes. A dictatorship can occur and you may not be personally impacted because you’re part of a privileged class. The “nobility.” See: every dictatorship that has ever occurred. Particularly early on, the 95%ile+ usually benefit, as they’re the ones with power to be placated.

A more productive thing to consider would be for you to write down what would indicate authoritarianism or a dictatorship to you, to prevent you from justifying whatever it is that happens next that is obviously in line with authoritarianism.

A few things that dictators/authoritarians do that have and are occurring:
-threaten and silence the press (banning AP from White House)
-threaten and silence universities (threaten federal funding in the name of antisemitism where in effect the demands to keep funding enable broad federal control of institutions) (threaten federal funding if transgender care is provided, so this is being curtailed for example at Penn)
-limited political pluralism (republicans getting in line behind Trump on many things they disagree with, to stay in power)
-rhetorical populism while enacting non-populist wealth grabbing policies (“clean air and water and food” while gutting regulations due to corporate interest)
-threatening elections (“ I may not have to run in 2028”, questioning 2020 election)
-civil liberty restrictions (military force against own people for the first time in decades despite local authorities not requesting this)
-strong man persona (stupid military parade)
-personal enrichment (complete flip flop on crypto right after his family made crypto companies/investments)
-identify an enemy from within to curtail dissent (doesn’t really matter who. It’s the immigrants this time)


Those are not necessarily the best or only examples, but there are numerous.

Do you even interact with regular people?

I’ve never heard a single bottom 75% person I’ve run into complain about a “dictatorship”.

If this is really about us being nobility or not, I’d love to know who you’re talking to who feels that this is a dictatorship who’s in the bottom half of earners.

The only people who yap about authoritarianism I see are fart sniffing liberals who have a persecution fantasy. My rural, poor, regular folk patients certainly give less than a second of their time thinking about it.

So if it’s not affecting the nobility, and not affecting the lower half, who’s being dictated to here exactly?

I’ll write down real dictatorship moves here, with appropriate citations of major dictatorships to have done these things. These to me include most of the necessary and sufficient acts to establish dictatorship. They are not overinterpretations of propaganda, simple or complex corruption, threats, or rhetoric. They are hard acts that occur that impact regular people massively and are known immediately:

1. Disbanding the legislature (under state security pretenses)


2. Suspending elections (you’ll know when that happens, doesn't often happen)

3. Banning opposing political parties


4. Purging political opposition leaders (self explanatory, there are names for major purges historically in nearly every dictatorship)


5. Use of citizens against other citizens for hard enforcement against political opposition (citizen informants with reward and punishment structures when crimes against the state are suspected. Again very obvious and not happening currently, and not related to immigration type things like you'll probably say)


"The vigilant civilian simply marks one of various categories of disturbances listed on the card - such as drunkenness or playing hooky from work - and names the offender. The informant need not sign his name.

In Kiev, respondents were instructed to stay anonymous. The cards read: ''We ask you to report, without mentioning your name, all cases known to you of violations of public order and the rules of socialist communal life, of persons leading an antisocial way of life, failing to work, or abusing alcoholic beverages, of problem families, and of adolescents who have given up their studies. . . .''


"This project explores the particular aspects of the Stasi and Gestapo seen in film and works to disentangle fact from fiction. Analysis of Stasi documents reveal an obsession with the use of informants; this obsession has been passed on to film, where informants are frequently the main contact between the Stasi and those they are observing. In the case of the Gestapo, recent research reveals that the apparatus relied heavily on denunciations from the general public, a fact that is often ignored or downplayed by films."

6. Requisitioning of civilian property for military or state use (3rd amendment, the framers knew what actual dictatorship looked like)


7. Disarming the civilian population


So if any of those things happen, I'll be on your side. It will be very obvious when they do happen, and there will probably be mass rioting in response. You are welcome to take a mental note of this and inform me when these things occur, but I'll probably see it before you do.
 
It does affect everyone materially because it makes the government accountable to no one.. when any entity or set of facts that disagree with the narrative is removed by the dear leader. Pretty easy to see that this is not what we want in our government, politics aside…
As far as I can tell, we're going to have a national election in November 2026.

If the people believe someone needs to be held accountable, it will occur at that time.
 
Oh come on. You are acting like Trump is one step removed from dressing like Gadaffi and declaring himself supreme leader while executing his political opponents in the streets.

Here is a few other things that could be viewed as overly authoritarian:

-Threaten and silence social media (DOJ/FBI jawboning Covid 19 misinformation and election integrity claims)
Yeah. Conspiracy theories killed a lot of people. Agree it was too far but federal government should do something when thousands of people are dying due to conspiracy theories. Time limited.

-associating parental dissent against school boards to domestic terrorism
That’s a stretch, Jim Jordans. Really says something that you’re on the book banning side of history.

-limited political pluralism. Dude that’s the result of a two party system. However, dems also fell in line when Kamal was placed (not voted) as the Biden successor.
False equivalency. Kamala wasn’t passing legislation or giving executive orders as candidate. Democrats are more difficult to corral, MAGA has taken over elected GOP.

-threatening elections (lack of Harris participation in state primaries)
Having to reuse examples and pretend they’re remotely close to an insurrection or looking into 2028 is pathetic and ineffective. Democratic Party primaries is not an elected official with govt power.

-civil liberty restrictions ( the party of extended Covid restrictions and keeping kids out of school, the party of anti 2A policies and red flag laws).
Global pandemic is a pretty reasonable explanation, and is no longer occurring. Time limited. Guns have changed a lot in 200 years. No chance the framers had modern equipment in mind. Another example of trying to curtail actual death, not an abstract boogeyman without clear data.

-“Strong man persona” (you literally tried to prop up a corpse for four years in an attempt to convince voters Biden was fit for office)
No I didn’t. But at least he filled govt positions and had people who were qualified instead of regulatory capture.

-personal enrichment (blanket pardoning family members? Six figure paintings?)
Pales in comparison to the likely billions or at least hundreds of millions Trump family has made in just 6 months. Pardoning on the way out is not authoritarianism in the way of pardoning while in office.

-identify an enemy within (deplorables->MAGA->white nationalists ring a bell?)
Oh my bad. Show me the MAGAs that were deported en masse and separated from families

By your criteria, the Biden administration can be viewed as much an authoritarian threat as Trump.
Just a bunch of false equivalence that you’re really squinting at to try to make work.

The fact is even if you are against everything Trump does, the other branches of government are still functioning appropriately, even if they don’t currently align with your political ideology. Executive action only goes so far, the vast majority of which can be undone with the stroke of a pen by the next administration. Far from the makings of the next great totalitarian regime… So, maybe loosen your grip on those pearls a little bit, democracy is alive and well, it’s just not currently working toward your goals. Go out and do something about it if you want I change it.
Citizens United is not democratic. Republican mastery of gerrymandering is not democratic and getting worse. Regulatory capture is not democratic. I guess it is meaningless that Trump publically admires authoritarians. I guess he’s just ineffective at trying to become more like them, in your eyes.
 
Do you even interact with regular people?

I’ve never heard a single bottom 75% person I’ve run into complain about a “dictatorship”.

If this is really about us being nobility or not, I’d love to know who you’re talking to who feels that this is a dictatorship who’s in the bottom half of earners.

The only people who yap about authoritarianism I see are fart sniffing liberals who have a persecution fantasy. My rural, poor, regular folk patients certainly give less than a second of their time thinking about it.

So if it’s not affecting the nobility, and not affecting the lower half, who’s being dictated to here exactly?

I’ll write down real dictatorship moves here, with appropriate citations of major dictatorships to have done these things. These to me include most of the necessary and sufficient acts to establish dictatorship. They are not overinterpretations of propaganda, simple or complex corruption, threats, or rhetoric. They are hard acts that occur that impact regular people massively and are known immediately:

1. Disbanding the legislature (under state security pretenses)


2. Suspending elections (you’ll know when that happens, doesn't often happen)

3. Banning opposing political parties


4. Purging political opposition leaders (self explanatory, there are names for major purges historically in nearly every dictatorship)


5. Use of citizens against other citizens for hard enforcement against political opposition (citizen informants with reward and punishment structures when crimes against the state are suspected. Again very obvious and not happening currently, and not related to immigration type things like you'll probably say)


"The vigilant civilian simply marks one of various categories of disturbances listed on the card - such as drunkenness or playing hooky from work - and names the offender. The informant need not sign his name.

In Kiev, respondents were instructed to stay anonymous. The cards read: ''We ask you to report, without mentioning your name, all cases known to you of violations of public order and the rules of socialist communal life, of persons leading an antisocial way of life, failing to work, or abusing alcoholic beverages, of problem families, and of adolescents who have given up their studies. . . .''


"This project explores the particular aspects of the Stasi and Gestapo seen in film and works to disentangle fact from fiction. Analysis of Stasi documents reveal an obsession with the use of informants; this obsession has been passed on to film, where informants are frequently the main contact between the Stasi and those they are observing. In the case of the Gestapo, recent research reveals that the apparatus relied heavily on denunciations from the general public, a fact that is often ignored or downplayed by films."

6. Requisitioning of civilian property for military or state use (3rd amendment, the framers knew what actual dictatorship looked like)


7. Disarming the civilian population


So if any of those things happen, I'll be on your side. It will be very obvious when they do happen, and there will probably be mass rioting in response. You are welcome to take a mental note of this and inform me when these things occur, but I'll probably see it before you do.
Thanks for the delineation of things. I agree with the point that current state =\= dictatorship, but would argue there have been clear indicators of blooming authoritarianism which reliably occur before all of the actions you described.
 
The economy most definitely affects everyone in the country. However, the last time it truly affected most people was about 17 years ago.

You think anyone cared about BLS reports in summer of 2008? Transparent, made up, totally accurate, all a bunch of window dressing.

When people feel the squeeze in the American economy it’s extremely obvious. Hemming and hawing about whether this or that job report is accurate is just mental masturbation. The fact that anyone even bothers following them currently means that it’s just a stats project that can be used for political purposes.

When job losses starts affecting people seriously, you won’t need a BLS jobs report to tell you that.

How many BLS jobs reports did you need in October of 2008 to tell you there was a problem? Did you not believe something was happening prior to the reports that proved we were all *%#ed?
We should all just stop ordering any labs or tests on patients. After all, if the patient is really "*%#ed," we won't need them to tell us there's a problem. Who needs accurate data to figure out problems before or know more details? Also, it bears repeating again that Trump, his installed sycophants in the EPA, and much of his base now deny that greenhouse gases or climate change are a problem despite the extremely visible signs for decades. Or the belief in Trump's ridiculous claims that gas hit $1.98/gal despite a quick check to the gas station proving that wrong. Or the other thousands of blatant lies. If MAGA can believe all of that, I doubt they'll have any problems believing Trump's boasts about the economy.

But frankly, all of this discussion drags us away from the obvious takeaway if you're not in the MAGA cult - it is insane and unprecedented to fire and slander anyone who tells the truth when the truth doesn't compliment the dear leader. And no matter how much you deny it, replacing neutral leadership with loyalists and turning state outlets into propaganda is a key tenet in the march towards authoritarianism. The fact that your response to all of this is to not even acknowledge a problem but double down on mental gymnastics to act like it's normal and actually justified shows how far gone you are.
 
Thanks for the delineation of things. I agree with the point that current state =\= dictatorship, but would argue there have been clear indicators of blooming authoritarianism which reliably occur before all of the actions you described.
I appreciate this point of view. It's great to be vigilant against blooming authoritarianism, but having known people who lived through quite a few authoritarian events in the US and other countries' histories, it's hard for me to get too worked up about what's occurred in the past decade.

To me the closest things we have are the COVID business closures in 2020-2022, and the tariff situation (though I haven't seen meaningful plans to reverse every tariff being put forth by democratic congress members). Those things meaningfully affect regular people without their input, except indirectly by congress. However, they seem to be less or more severe based on who you're talking to and the perspective you take on authoritarianism.

Historical dictatorships do things that are in hindsight universally reviled. We haven't had many of those things in American history since the internments of world war 2.
 
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We should all just stop ordering any labs or tests on patients. After all, if the patient is really "*%#ed," we won't need them to tell us there's a problem. Who needs accurate data to figure out problems before or know more details? Also, it bears repeating again that Trump, his installed sycophants in the EPA, and much of his base now deny that greenhouse gases or climate change are a problem despite the extremely visible signs for decades. Or the belief in Trump's ridiculous claims that gas hit $1.98/gal despite a quick check to the gas station proving that wrong. Or the other thousands of blatant lies. If MAGA can believe all of that, I doubt they'll have any problems believing Trump's boasts about the economy.

But frankly, all of this discussion drags us away from the obvious takeaway if you're not in the MAGA cult - it is insane and unprecedented to fire and slander anyone who tells the truth when the truth doesn't compliment the dear leader. And no matter how much you deny it, replacing neutral leadership with loyalists and turning state outlets into propaganda is a key tenet in the march towards authoritarianism. The fact that your response to all of this is to not even acknowledge a problem but double down on mental gymnastics to act like it's normal and actually justified shows how far gone you are.
Blah blah blah, "I am MAGA," I am a "cultist," but only voted for Trump once. Anything else?

Go outside chicken little.
 
Trump: Fires BLS chief explicitly because he doesn't like the numbers she's putting out while alleging a government conspiracy about them being "rigged" and "concocted" to harm him politically.

Political Left SDN: This is pretty bad behavior and bodes poorly for the future independent functioning of agencies we typically depend on to remain independent. We might even look at this as an early warning sign of authoritarianism or reminiscent of a dictatorial action.

Political Right SDN: Doesn't engage with the actual actions of the President. Points to the political left as overreacting with even the mention of authoritarianism/dictatorship. You are all against everything Trump does. All of the other branches are still "functioning"... rinse and repeat.
 
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Trump: Fires BLS chief explicitly because he doesn't like the numbers he's putting out while alleging a government conspiracy about them being "rigged" and "concocted" to harm him politically.

Political Left SDN: This is pretty bad behavior and bodes poorly for the future independent functioning of agencies we typically depend on to remain independent. We might even look at this as an early warning sign of authoritarianism or reminiscent of a dictatorial action.

Political Right SDN: Doesn't engage with the actual actions of the President. Points to the political left as overreacting with even the mention of authoritarianism/dictatorship. You are all against everything Trump does. All of the other branches are still "functioning"... rinse and repeat.
Firing that person was bad.

Does a misleading or falsified jobs report change the underlying reality of the job market? If the jobs report didn't exist, would you know if you had been fired or hired?


"Nor are job-seekers likely to be fooled. They can assess the situation for themselves based on their success at finding employment or the experiences of their friends and neighbors. The same holds, perhaps even more so, when it comes to higher prices, which are literally visible any time they go to the grocery store or drive past a gas station.

There is far too much belief among political types that voters’ views of the economy reflect narrative or spin, rather than being cross-checked against the ground truth they’re experiencing in their own lives."
 
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Firing that person was bad.

Does a misleading or falsified jobs report change the underlying reality of the job market? If the jobs report didn't exist, would you know if you had been fired or hired?


"Nor are job-seekers likely to be fooled. They can assess the situation for themselves based on their success at finding employment or the experiences of their friends and neighbors. The same holds, perhaps even more so, when it comes to higher prices, which are literally visible any time they go to the grocery store or drive past a gas station.

There is far too much belief among political types that voters’ views of the economy reflect narrative or spin, rather than being cross-checked against the ground truth they’re experiencing in their own lives."

Yeah man, it was a bad move. Hopefully more ostensibly independent data gathering offices don't start cooking the books for Trump in response to this outburst.
 
Oh come on. You are acting like Trump is one step removed from dressing like Gadaffi and declaring himself supreme leader while executing his political opponents in the streets.

Here is a few other things that could be viewed as overly authoritarian:

-Threaten and silence social media (DOJ/FBI jawboning Covid 19 misinformation and election integrity claims)

-associating parental dissent against school boards to domestic terrorism

-limited political pluralism. Dude that’s the result of a two party system. However, dems also fell in line when Kamal was placed (not voted) as the Biden successor.

-threatening elections (lack of Harris participation in state primaries)


-civil liberty restrictions ( the party of extended Covid restrictions and keeping kids out of school, the party of anti 2A policies and red flag laws).

-“Strong man persona” (you literally tried to prop up a corpse for four years in an attempt to convince voters Biden was fit for office)

-personal enrichment (blanket pardoning family members? Six figure paintings?)

-identify an enemy within (deplorables->MAGA->white nationalists ring a bell?)

By your criteria, the Biden administration can be viewed as much an authoritarian threat as Trump.

The fact is even if you are against everything Trump does, the other branches of government are still functioning appropriately, even if they don’t currently align with your political ideology. Executive action only goes so far, the vast majority of which can be undone with the stroke of a pen by the next administration. Far from the makings of the next great totalitarian regime… So, maybe loosen your grip on those pearls a little bit, democracy is alive and well, it’s just not currently working toward your goals. Go out and do something about it if you want I change it.
Most of your example are not even close to what Trump are doing now. In all honesty, they are lame.

I understand that you are MAGA, but you gotta do better.
 
Yeah man, it was a bad move. Hopefully more ostensibly independent data gathering offices don't start cooking the books for Trump in response to this outburst.

People in medicine always crap on anecdotes, but on the personal level everyone’s situation is their own anecdote and works as the most important data point.

If you have an easy time finding good work, you think the job market is good. If you get laid off and can’t easily find other comparable work you think the job market is bad.

The aggregate of those experiences make up peoples votes on the job market. Same story for inflation. Same for prices of college. Etc

Dylan said: “You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows”
 
People in medicine always crap on anecdotes, but on the personal level everyone’s situation is their own anecdote and works as the most important data point.

If you have an easy time finding good work, you think the job market is good. If you get laid off and can’t easily find other comparable work you think the job market is bad.

The aggregate of those experiences make up peoples votes on the job market. Same story for inflation. Same for prices of college. Etc

Dylan said: “You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows”

Yeah man. It's not like there are good reasons to have reliable data independent of a President's wims.

The presupposition that we should be looking at this at the "personal level" is weird.

Having good reliable data is good for the economy in other ways, its 'soft power' as Nate Silver described it in the article you shared. Good for research. Good for international investment. Probably useful with labor disputes etc...

Even the argument that it can be useful for negative political action has merit. Biden got hammered on inflation and that's in part because he wasn't putting his thumb on the scale to fudge the numbers. Everything the next BLS chief puts out now is going to be viewed through the lens of... "well, did this data get Trump's seal of approval or not?"

This was right above the section you copied from Nate Silver:

"...no longer having any reliable “ground truth” for major American economic data series will create more uncertainty for businesses and investors overall, which will discourage the sort healthy risk-taking that often fuels job growth. More generally, America benefits, particularly in our ability to borrow cheaply, from economic “soft power” in the form of being considered a reliable and transparent actor. Trump has eroded those foundations in his second term in a way he didn’t so much in his first, and I’ve been skeptical of the notion that markets will discipline him as much as others seem to assume."

Like, this is the bad part we're talking about. Pointing to the less bad part (personal level anecdotes) doesn't make this part less bad.
 
Yeah man. It's not like there are good reasons to have reliable data independent of a President's wims.

The presupposition that we should be looking at this at the "personal level" is weird.

Having good reliable data is good for the economy in other ways, its 'soft power' as Nate Silver described it in the article you shared. Good for research. Good for international investment. Probably useful with labor disputes etc...

Even the argument that it can be useful for negative political action has merit. Biden got hammered on inflation and that's in part because he wasn't putting his thumb on the scale to fudge the numbers. Everything the next BLS chief puts out now is going to be viewed through the lens of... "well, did this data get Trump's seal of approval or not?"

This was right above the section you copied from Nate Silver:

"...no longer having any reliable “ground truth” for major American economic data series will create more uncertainty for businesses and investors overall, which will discourage the sort healthy risk-taking that often fuels job growth. More generally, America benefits, particularly in our ability to borrow cheaply, from economic “soft power” in the form of being considered a reliable and transparent actor. Trump has eroded those foundations in his second term in a way he didn’t so much in his first, and I’ve been skeptical of the notion that markets will discipline him as much as others seem to assume."

Like, this is the bad part we're talking about. Pointing to the less bad part (personal level anecdotes) doesn't make this part less bad.
I wont dispute the obfuscation of job numbers being generally negative, but the complaints here seem to be more about the president lying to the American citizenry (referencing authoritarian propagandizing) rather than the business community. I also imagine that business investors are far more concerned about things like the 10 year treasury rate or the fed funds rate when it comes to their decision making. Job numbers can be massaged in a number of ways regardless of who is in charge, but those things reflect true costs to them.
 
I wont dispute the obfuscation of job numbers being generally negative, but the complaints here seem to be more about the president lying to the American citizenry (referencing authoritarian propagandizing) rather than the business community. I also imagine that business investors are far more concerned about things like the 10 year treasury rate or the fed funds rate when it comes to their decision making. Job numbers can be massaged in a number of ways regardless of who is in charge, but those things reflect true costs to them.
Do you have to find a way to justify everything Trump does?

You don't seem to understand how important these job data are despite @rowsdower88 providing a quote of Nate Silver explaining in details... Just say Trump does something that no president should do and move on.
 
Do you have to find a way to justify everything Trump does?

You don't seem to understand how important these job data are despite @rowsdower88 providing a quote of Nate Silver explaining in details... Just say Trump does something that no president should do and move on.
I said it was bad. You say it means we're a dictatorship. I disagree that it means we're a dictatorship, or that it even matters all that much. Check the stock market for reasonable proof that investment isn't collapsing.
 
I said it was bad. You say it means we're a dictatorship. I disagree that it means we're a dictatorship, or that it even matters all that much. Check the stock market for reasonable proof that investment isn't collapsing.
Never said it's dictatorship, but these moves can be seen as authoritarian moves.

Happy with my returns in the stock market so far. But you should not ask me as someone who makes 400k+. Ask the lower middle class families who make 50-70k/yr.
 
Thanks for the delineation of things. I agree with the point that current state =\= dictatorship, but would argue there have been clear indicators of blooming authoritarianism which reliably occur before all of the actions you described.


Glad you are walking that back a little bit. There have history been clear indicators of authoritarian administrations going back to Adams, Jackson, FDR, Bush, Trump, Biden… somehow we have persevered.


Political Left SDN: This is pretty bad behavior and bodes poorly for the future independent functioning of agencies we typically depend on to remain independent. We might even look at this as an early warning sign of authoritarianism or reminiscent of a dictatorial action.


It’s more like Trump farts in public, SDN left claims he is using Sarin gas against his political opponents.


Political Right SDN: Doesn't engage with the actual actions of the President. Points to the political left as overreacting with even the mention of authoritarianism/dictatorship. You are all against everything Trump does. All of the other branches are still "functioning"... rinse and repeat.

Any claims the current administration ends in a dictatorship is clearly overreacting.
 
Glad you are walking that back a little bit. There have history been clear indicators of authoritarian administrations going back to Adams, Jackson, FDR, Bush, Trump, Biden… somehow we have persevered.





It’s more like Trump farts in public, SDN left claims he is using Sarin gas against his political opponents.




Any claims the current administration ends in a dictatorship is clearly overreacting.

Just say Trump firing this lady was bad and move on. I know you don't want to actually defend his actions here right?

You're consistently more upset about an "overreaction" than about some of the indefensible actions themselves. Whether it be your boy Hegseth (yeah, I haven't forgotten the hour video I watched at your request to get a measure of his "character") still in the White House running his own foreign policy or just grifting off access with another meme coin event. Or firing this lady for doing her job...

As much as you say others are overly critical of Trump, you are one of his most ardent defenders on here anymore. Even if that defense amounts to obfuscation of his actions and painting his critics as chicken little.
 
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Just say Trump firing this lady was bad and move on. I know you don't want to actually defend his actions here right?

You're consistently more upset about an "overreaction" than about some of the indefensible actions themselves. Whether it be your boy Hegseth (yeah, I haven't forgotten the hour video I watched at your request to get a measure of his "character") still in the White House running his own foreign policy or just grifting off access with another meme coin event. Or firing this lady for doing her job...

As much as you say others are overly critical of Trump, you are one of his most ardent defenders on here anymore. Even if that defense amounts to obfuscation of his actions and painting his critics as chicken little.

It’s difficult to engage honestly when everyone here speaks about Trump like Noam Chomsky speaks about the United States. There’s a lot of chaff to cut through
 
Trump is a sitting duck president in 15 months. People need to relax

The Dems will comes out by the masses and will retake at least the house almost guaranteed. And maybe the senate

The dems will the try to impeach trump a 3rd time.

The script has already been written folks.
 
Trump is a sitting duck president in 15 months. People need to relax

The Dems will comes out by the masses and will retake at least the house almost guaranteed. And maybe the senate

The dems will the try to impeach trump a 3rd time.

The script has already been written folks.
TX is rigging the system. Other red states might follow suit.
 
Okay but trump didn’t fart. He unilaterally fired someone who presented data the entire world relies on when making financial decisions so he could save face for n his flawed economic agenda. The line of thinking that no one pays attention to these numbers and that it’s better to just stick your finger in their air to see which way the wind blows is flawed. You can say that’s not authoritarianism, but it is the kind of thing authoritarians do.

The thing is, it’s all well and good to say these little violations of norms don’t matter, but trillions of dollars of investment and untold political decisions worldwide depend on the US acting, as it has for centuries, in a predictable, transparent, and democratic manner. I don’t think it’s wise or correct to assume that because these individual acts seem small that they don’t add up, in aggregate, over time, to have enormous negative impacts on our standing and function.

 
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Okay but trump didn’t fart. He unilaterally fired someone who presented data the entire world relies on when making financial decisions so he could save face for n his flawed economic agenda. The line of thinking that no one pays attention to these numbers and that it’s better to just stick your finger in their air to see which way the wind blows is flawed. You can say that’s not authoritarianism, but it is the kind of thing authoritarians do.


Oh, I bet he farted. He also raped minors and is showing leniency for someone who was convicted of grooming minors for sex acts and human trafficking. But hey, I guess he’s not a dictator, so there’s that.
 
Okay but trump didn’t fart. He unilaterally fired someone who presented data the entire world relies on when making financial decisions so he could save face for n his flawed economic agenda. The line of thinking that no one pays attention to these numbers and that it’s better to just stick your finger in their air to see which way the wind blows is flawed. You can say that’s not authoritarianism, but it is the kind of thing authoritarians do.

The thing is, it’s all well and good to say these little violations of norms don’t matter, but trillions of dollars of investment and untold political decisions worldwide depend on the US acting, as it has for centuries, in a predictable, transparent, and democratic manner. I don’t think it’s wise or correct to assume that because these individual acts seem small that they don’t add up, in aggregate, over time, to have enormous negative impacts on our standing and function.


You’re not wrong about all this.

If the tariffs and now this ruin the economy it will be felt in the midterm voting. Although there’s lots of gerrymandering, there are still enough competitive districts to flip the house.

I will be interested to hear any plan from democrats on how they plan to rectify these issues. I haven’t heard the line “we will reverse all tariffs and put things back to 2023” from any of them. This makes me think there’s more bipartisan support for the tariffs than we’re led to believe.

So if the practical effects are felt, the ball will be in the democrats court. They should hope they use it wisely.
 
You’re not wrong about all this.

If the tariffs and now this ruin the economy it will be felt in the midterm voting. Although there’s lots of gerrymandering, there are still enough competitive districts to flip the house.

I will be interested to hear any plan from democrats on how they plan to rectify these issues. I haven’t heard the line “we will reverse all tariffs and put things back to 2023” from any of them. This makes me think there’s more bipartisan support for the tariffs than we’re led to believe.

So if the practical effects are felt, the ball will be in the democrats court. They should hope they use it wisely.
I think dems are ok with tariffs. Biden actually kept Trump's first term tariffs and wanted to increase some. But there is a way to do things.

In my opinion, he should have started negotiating first with the big players (China, Canada, EU, UK, Mexico, Japan, S. Korea etc...), not that blanket BS he did on "liberation day".
 
Based on pundits, that itself will take away 5 seats from the dems, and they have only 9 seats now in congress. That is a big swing.
It really depends on voter tiurnout. It Dems round up the troops. Like I said. Won’t matter what the repubs do.
 
There's an argument that, especially in matters of international trade, maintaining consistency can be more important than other factors.

Weighing the pros and cons of turning tariffs on and off every 4 years runs the risk of potentially worse outcomes than just keeping whatever Trump eventually comes up with in place.

The best option might be a gradual ratcheting down of tariffs and trade barriers over time, like what we have been trying to do for the past decades. Regaining American soft power via consistent and reliable action might be the best way to go.

All this to say, I wouldn't be surprised or critical of a Dem President for not immediately ending the tariffs Trump instituted, despite thinking they're largely misguided and make America poorer.
 
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Okay but trump didn’t fart. He unilaterally fired someone who presented data the entire world relies on when making financial decisions so he could save face for n his flawed economic agenda. The line of thinking that no one pays attention to these numbers and that it’s better to just stick your finger in their air to see which way the wind blows is flawed. You can say that’s not authoritarianism, but it is the kind of thing authoritarians do.

The thing is, it’s all well and good to say these little violations of norms don’t matter, but trillions of dollars of investment and untold political decisions worldwide depend on the US acting, as it has for centuries, in a predictable, transparent, and democratic manner. I don’t think it’s wise or correct to assume that because these individual acts seem small that they don’t add up, in aggregate, over time, to have enormous negative impacts on our standing and function.



 
There's an argument that, especially in matters of international trade, maintaining consistency can be more important than many other factors.

Weighing the pros and cons of turning tariffs on and off every 4 years runs the risk of potentially worse outcomes than just keeping whatever Trump eventually comes up with in place.

The best option might be a gradual ratcheting down of tariffs and trade barriers over time, like what we have been trying to do for the past decades. Regaining American soft power via consistent and reliable action might be the best way to go.

All this to say, I wouldn't be surprised or critical of a Dem President for not immediately ending the tariffs Trump instituted, despite thinking they're largely misguided and make America poorer.

The tariffs change almost weekly now. Just keeping the same rules in place for 6 months might be an improvement to this current clown show.
 
I think dems are ok with tariffs. Biden actually kept Trump's first term tariffs and wanted to increase some. But there is a way to do things.

In my opinion, he should have started negotiating first with the big players (China, Canada, EU, UK, Mexico, Japan, S. Korea etc...), not that blanket BS he did on "liberation day".
Selective tariffs at one thing. I'm all for putting the screws to China, hard.

But screwing with Canada? Mexico? Europe? That island of penguins didn't do anything to deserve this.
 
Guns have changed a lot in 200 years. No chance the framers had modern equipment in mind.
You're absolutely right, what they had in mind (beyond the firearms in common use by state militaries of the day) were things like artillery and other weapons employed by standing nation-state armies.

When the British army marched on Lexington and Concord, it was to confiscate and destroy cannons and other military weapons and supplies. This was the event that kicked off the Revolutionary War and was still fresh in everyone's minds years later when the Constitution was drafted.

The 2nd Amendment isn't there because of deer hunting. It's to ensure that weapons capable of efficiently killing other people are available to citizens. Over time the legislature and Supreme Court have whittled it down to (mostly) small arms usable by individuals, but let's put to bed this tired notion that the Framers' inability to imagine F18s and space-based ballistic missile guidance systems and rocket artillery meant they didn't want future citizens to be able to own (gasp) rifles with magazines.

Remember, we're talking about an era in which individuals owned warships.

Now, if you want to put forth the argument that advancements in weaponry merit amending the Constitution to place limits on what individuals can own, OK. I'll even agree to some extent. But if you're going to profess to care what the Framers intended, well, they wanted the people to have weapons every bit as dangerous and effective as anything the state had.

Their intent, based on their own writings, the historical events they lived through (and shaped), and the extensively documented norms of the time, isn't the least bit fuzzy.
 
Selective tariffs at one thing. I'm all for putting the screws to China, hard.

But screwing with Canada? Mexico? Europe? That island of penguins didn't do anything to deserve this.

It will be quite the pivot if the next democratic admin keeps the tariffs on America’s allies. I don’t think they should as that’s tantamount to an admission that trumps tariff ideas were actually reasonable, which of course means the collective head of the Democratic Party explodes.

It also lends credence to skeptics of the Trump alarmists. I recall the tariffs being the reason that world war 3 will start, not supported by any modern economist period, and the biggest tax increase in 50 years on Americans. If democrats are on board with all that then I guess both sides are actually the same 🤷
 
You're absolutely right, what they had in mind (beyond the firearms in common use by state militaries of the day) were things like artillery and other weapons employed by standing nation-state armies.

When the British army marched on Lexington and Concord, it was to confiscate and destroy cannons and other military weapons and supplies. This was the event that kicked off the Revolutionary War and was still fresh in everyone's minds years later when the Constitution was drafted.

The 2nd Amendment isn't there because of deer hunting. It's to ensure that weapons capable of efficiently killing other people are available to citizens. Over time the legislature and Supreme Court have whittled it down to (mostly) small arms usable by individuals, but let's put to bed this tired notion that the Framers' inability to imagine F18s and space-based ballistic missile guidance systems and rocket artillery meant they didn't want future citizens to be able to own (gasp) rifles with magazines.

Remember, we're talking about an era in which individuals owned warships.

Now, if you want to put forth the argument that advancements in weaponry merit amending the Constitution to place limits on what individuals can own, OK. I'll even agree to some extent. But if you're going to profess to care what the Framers intended, well, they wanted the people to have weapons every bit as dangerous and effective as anything the state had.

Their intent, based on their own writings, the historical events they lived through (and shaped), and the extensively documented norms of the time, isn't the least bit fuzzy.

 
It will be quite the pivot if the next democratic admin keeps the tariffs on America’s allies. I don’t think they should as that’s tantamount to an admission that trumps tariff ideas were actually reasonable, which of course means the collective head of the Democratic Party explodes.

It also lends credence to skeptics of the Trump alarmists. I recall the tariffs being the reason that world war 3 will start, not supported by any modern economist period, and the biggest tax increase in 50 years on Americans. If democrats are on board with all that then I guess both sides are actually the same 🤷

Trying to regain American soft power that is currently being squandered by being a reliable and consistent partner across administrations may be more important than immediately ending whatever tariffs Trump still has after 4 years. Working for reliability and consistency wouldn't be a "pivot".

I wouldn't hold it against a future Dem President for continuing bad policy for this reason, provided they work towards addressing it over time.

We don't want to flip tariffs on and off every 4 years.
 
Trying to regain American soft power that is currently being squandered by being a reliable and consistent partner across administrations may be more important than immediately ending whatever tariffs Trump still has after 4 years. Working for reliability and consistency wouldn't be a "pivot".

I wouldn't hold it against a future Dem President for continuing bad policy for this reason, provided they work towards addressing it over time.

We don't want to flip tariffs on and off every 4 years.

Is it your view that trumps ideas on tariffs are not unilateral or unique to him then?

I can’t see how high tariff policy doesn’t go away once Trump is out of office or goes full dementia in 10 years. Even a lot of republicans think there’s tariffs are generally stupid.

Flip flopping in this doesn’t seem too severe of an action as the prevailing wisdom is it’s always better to have open trade vs closed.

I have to believe we’ll be flip flopping hard on the annexation of Canada stuff too next time a democrat is in the presidency, and that won’t hurt our soft power much but maybe I’m seeing this all wrong.

In any case I think soft power is a bit overrated these days. Soft power is in America’s corporate behemoths, and nowhere else. Those corporations drive the purchasing of our debt and establish our economic dominance, not how nicely we play with people.
 
Is it your view that trumps ideas on tariffs are not unilateral or unique to him then?

No? Lots of people want to do dumb things for dumb reasons.

I can’t see how high tariff policy doesn’t go away once Trump is out of office or goes full dementia in 10 years. Even a lot of republicans think there’s tariffs are generally stupid.

Yeah. I hope they're gone in 10 years. I said as much.

Flip flopping in this doesn’t seem too severe of an action as the prevailing wisdom is it’s always better to have open trade vs closed.

Maybe. I said I wouldn't hold it against a potential Democratic president for continuing this particular irresponsible policy.

I have to believe we’ll be flip flopping hard on the annexation of Canada stuff too next time a democrat is in the presidency, and that won’t hurt our soft power much but maybe I’m seeing this all wrong.

I would say enacting a tariff policy with real world consequences is different from bloviating like an imbecile.

In any case I think soft power is a bit overrated these days. Soft power is in America’s corporate behemoths, and nowhere else. Those corporations drive the purchasing of our debt and establish our economic dominance, not how nicely we play with people.

Hard disagree. We're taking for granted that the US is a reserve currency and banking hub and all of the benefits that entails. If the costs associated with that distinction become too high for other countries, or if other countries wake up to the irresponsible way we've been using our sanction power to curtail free speech (Francesca Albanese) then we will be facing increased competition on those fronts.


I will point out that it is another erosion of conservative arguments. First there was "we're not going to be losing soft power with these actions". Now we're at "soft power is overrated". We'll see if we hit "soft power wasn't worth having and not worth keeping".
 
I will point out that it is another erosion of conservative arguments. First there was "we're not going to be losing soft power with these actions". Now we're at "soft power is overrated". We'll see if we hit "soft power wasn't worth having and not worth keeping".
Rationalization is the MAGA superpower.

Curious what they think about the president standing on the roof of the White House yelling at the press. Or maybe he's yelling at clouds - it is a nice day out.
 
No? Lots of people want to do dumb things for dumb reasons.



Yeah. I hope they're gone in 10 years. I said as much.



Maybe. I said I wouldn't hold it against a potential Democratic president for continuing this particular irresponsible policy.



I would say enacting a tariff policy with real world consequences is different from bloviating like an imbecile.



Hard disagree. We're taking for granted that the US is a reserve currency and banking hub and all of the benefits that entails. If the costs associated with that distinction become too high for other countries, or if other countries wake up to the irresponsible way we've been using our sanction power to curtail free speech (Francesca Albanese) then we will be facing increased competition on those fronts.


I will point out that it is another erosion of conservative arguments. First there was "we're not going to be losing soft power with these actions". Now we're at "soft power is overrated". We'll see if we hit "soft power wasn't worth having and not worth keeping".

Soft power gained by governmental actions is overrated. You can play dense all you want, the soft power is in American corporations and has been for 30 years.

I’m sure Microsoft/exxon/nvidia/eli Lilly/salesforce/raytheon/boeing/tesla will stop being American companies projecting soft power in due time if we make it too costly on other countries. Maybe pigs will fly out of our butts too.

So are tariffs a good idea or not? If not, why would you give democrats a pass for keeping them? They raise prices, lower soft power, constrict diplomacy, lower prosperity, am I missing something here?
 
Rationalization is the MAGA superpower.

Curious what they think about the president standing on the roof of the White House yelling at the press. Or maybe he's yelling at clouds - it is a nice day out.

Uh huh, so that’s why democrats are peachy with tariffs now? Talk about rationalization. This was the end of the economy 3 months ago and now you’re ok with keeping them?
 
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