Biden Out of Race

[cchoukal]

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For the first time in years, you and the Democrats are opposed to a Venezuelan criminal entering our country.

That’s actually pretty funny.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

I don't like communists either, but I know when you run huge deficits, give huge tax breaks, and start an idiotic tariff trade war to try to make ends meet on your fiscal irresponsibility, well you just gotta expect the consequences.

 

[DocMcCoy]

You're playing fast and loose with the definition of puppet state. I was hesitant to describe some blood diamond countries as puppet states, lol. But you want to describe every belt and road country as a puppet state?

You attempted to provide “modern examples” of puppet states/banana republics. China’s approach to global influence, especially on underdeveloped/least developed countries has some striking similarities to the historically defined banana republics, I don’t think that is debatable. If you want to say it’s fast and loose because there aren’t any actual banana massacres, I won’t argue.

would say what you're describing is closer to "sphere of influence", but I won't deny some countries might qualify as puppet states under BRI. Sri Lanka comes to mind. Venezuela in 2025 is not a perfect example of a puppet state.

A single legitimate export state (unless you want to count the coke), subject to foreign influence (loans for oil), widespread corruption leading to weak institutions and chronic instability preventing democratic regime change. All bankrolled and backed by China. Semantic game aside, that’s about as close as you can get to a modern puppet state.

Also... "anything we can do to prevent that kind of influence in the Western hemisphere" is not always in our best interest. How old are you? That's a Cold War mentality. Are we in a new Cold War and I missed it?

Emphatically yes, yes we are. Semantic games aside.

 

[narcotics999]

Libya people did the same when Gaddafi fell. Is Libya better now?

 

[DocMcCoy]

Libya people did the same when Gaddafi fell. Is Libya better now?

Libya isn’t Venezuela. And much like socialism, I’m sure it will work this time 🤪

 

[rowsdower88]

You attempted to provide “modern examples” of puppet states/banana republics. China’s approach to global influence, especially on underdeveloped/least developed countries has some striking similarities to the historically defined banana republics, I don’t think that is debatable. If you want to say it’s fast and loose because there aren’t any actual banana massacres, I won’t argue.

I gave you Sri Lanka as an example I potentially could agree with being a puppet state.

A single legitimate export state (unless you want to count the coke), subject to foreign influence (loans for oil), widespread corruption leading to weak institutions and chronic instability preventing democratic regime change. All bankrolled and backed by China. Semantic game aside, that’s about as close as you can get to a modern puppet state.

I think it's more appropriate to say sphere of influence, but I won't debate the point further. Venezuela is not a bantustan.

Emphatically yes, yes we are. Semantic games aside.

We are engaged in vigorous but not existential competition currently. That's the distinction I would draw.

 

[rowsdower88]

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article312516272.html

Did the US kill all those people in the boat strikes, and spend millions in a military campaign, just to end up with essentially the same outcome as the "chavismo lite" deal that the VP Delcy offered the US through Qatar last year? I guess we got Maduro in custody this way and got to see stuff blow up.

We'll see if someone besides the VP steps up... or if more strikes are coming.

 

[Account1]

Lol. You have to go back pretty far to find examples of what you seem to be advocating for (a puppet state/banana republic).

United Fruit Company was active throughout the 1950s and 60s, doing some pretty heinous stuff with the blessing and support of the US government. The US influenced the coup and subsequent civil war that lasted two decades(?).

For more modern examples, I could point to international chocolate and diamond companies employing forced and child labor. I wouldn't necessarily call all of those examples puppet states, but the distinction becomes blurry.

Chocolate and diamonds is all you’ve got? Those are boutique micro industries compared to oil.

So your thesis is a bunch of PhD geoengineers are going to come into Venezuela and then become slavemasters and be ok with that? And they’ll just keep a lid on it because of that oil profit?

Again, dubious claim against American companies. 2030 is not 1930.

 

[Account1]

Are you alive? Increase prosperity for whom? Locals never benefit from stuff like this. Big companies come and extract (fill in the resource here: diamonds, oil, lithium, tourist dollars) and the locals get a few entry level jobs.

Norway seems pretty nice tbh. It’s a petrostate essentially

 

[Account1]

"President Trump said Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in as Venezuela’s interim president and would act as a partner in letting the United States run the country.

“She’s essentially willing to do what we think is necessary to make Venezuela great again,” he said.

Less than two hours later, Ms. Rodríguez — who was Nicolás Maduro’s vice president — delivered a televised address to Venezuela that made clear she viewed the United States as an illegal invader that must be rejected.

“We are determined to be free,” she said. “What is being done to Venezuela is a barbarity.”

Her swift defiance of Mr. Trump made clear that his plans to swoop into the South American nation and run it as his own faced many more hurdles than he suggested in his Saturday news conference declaring victory in Venezuela."

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/world/americas/delcy-rodriguez-maduro-only-president.html

Reminds me of the shah of Iran. Two faced bluster to appear strong to citizens who know she’s weak. She’ll be ousted in a free election undoubtedly.

 

[pgg]

Libya people did the same when Gaddafi fell. Is Libya better now?

At risk of being called a racist and bad doctor again, I'll just assert that culture matters and Libya had/has some intrinsic handicaps that Venezuela doesn't.

I still think odds are very, very high that Trump and his gutted state department will spectacularly botch everything from here out. He'll lose interest in a few weeks, and the news cycle will shift, so we might not hear rmuch. But conspicuously absent in all of the Mission Accomplished banner waving is an actual plausible plan for next week, next month, and next year.

But at least Venezuela isn't at risk of devolving into a civil war with sides generously funded by rival religiously motivated gulf oil states. So, probably not Libya. 🙂

 

[rowsdower88]

Chocolate and diamonds is all you’ve got? Those are boutique micro industries compared to oil.

So your thesis is a bunch of PhD geoengineers are going to come into Venezuela and then become slavemasters and be ok with that? And they’ll just keep a lid on it because of that oil profit?

Again, dubious claim against American companies. 2030 is not 1930.

My thesis? My thesis is that puppet states create worse outcomes.

You're the one arguing we should turn it into a puppet state. Your colleague argues not unpersuasively it's already a puppet state, just for China. It sounds like you just want to change hands. If you want to turn it into Norway somehow that wouldn't be turning it into a puppet state.

A bunch of PhD engineers probably don't want to run a puppet state lol, I can agree with you on that. But maybe you should use a different term than puppet state to describe what you're envisioning then, or point to some past puppet state example you want to emulate so we can understand exactly what tf you're talking about.

I'll repeat what I said earlier. Some of what you said isn't controversial. It depends on how far you want to take it. "Puppet states" run by America or it's companies are usually VERY BAD for the people living there (hard to believe this needs to be said). Maybe there's a puppet state example I'm unaware of that was good for the people living there, but almost by definition such a good outcome would be incidental.

 

[rowsdower88]

Reminds me of the shah of Iran. Two faced bluster to appear strong to citizens who know she’s weak. She’ll be ousted in a free election undoubtedly.

Maybe? Very well could be bluster, I won't pretend to know her mental state. She offered almost this exact outcome to Trump over a year ago. (Maduro out and her taking the driver's seat.)

So whatever benefits we're getting now come at the cost of US munitions and risk of US soldiers.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article312516272.html

 

[Account1]

My thesis? My thesis is that puppet states create worse outcomes.

You're the one arguing we should turn it into a puppet state. Your colleague argues not unpersuasively it's already a puppet state, just for China. It sounds like you just want to change hands. If you want to turn it into Norway somehow that wouldn't be turning it into a puppet state.

A bunch of PhD engineers probably don't want to run a puppet state lol, I can agree with you on that. But maybe you should use a different term than puppet state to describe what you're envisioning then, or point to some past puppet state example you want to emulate so we can understand exactly what tf you're talking about.

I'll repeat what I said earlier. Some of what you said isn't controversial. It depends on how far you want to take it. "Puppet states" run by America or it's companies are usually VERY BAD for the people living there (hard to believe this needs to be said). Maybe there's a puppet state example I'm unaware of that was good for the people living there, but almost by definition such a good outcome would be incidental.

When you put it that way, sure. I consider most of our conquests after ww2 to be puppet states until they got off their feet.

Japan, west Germany, South Korea, Philippines.

All were de jure sovereign while de facto under United States control.

Maybe puppet is the wrong word. There’s many examples of us plowing democracy into an area by forcing people or regimes out and the people there benefitting greatly.

It tends to work in places that aren’t ruled by radical Islam or ones that culturally or politically do not prefer free societies and democracy.

Venezuela is one of those places it could work. Normal people, once upon a time were doing well, they got taken the wrong way by a corrupt regime that took advantage of the people there.

That could reverse without that regime in place if western capitalism is willing to invest money into the place

 

[rowsdower88]

When you put it that way, sure. I consider most of our conquests after ww2 to be puppet states until they got off their feet.

Japan, west Germany, South Korea, Philippines.

All were de jure sovereign while de facto under United States control.

Maybe puppet is the wrong word. There’s many examples of us plowing democracy into an area by forcing people or regimes out and the people there benefitting greatly.

It tends to work in places that aren’t ruled by radical Islam or ones that culturally or politically do not prefer free societies and democracy.

Venezuela is one of those places it could work. Normal people, once upon a time were doing well, they got taken the wrong way by a corrupt regime that took advantage of the people there.

That could reverse without that regime in place if western capitalism is willing to invest money into the place

Transitional or provisional governments.

That's the term you're looking for.

Governments we establish which are by definition not representing the will of the people and are meant to be temporary.

West Germany is an interesting one, but one I suspect we wouldn't want to replicate in Venezuela lol.

 

[dannyboy1]

Most likely there will be no change in the Venezuelan government. Maduro’s guys will still be running the place except they will cut in the US oil companies or risk being next on delta forces target list….

 

[PpfSuxTube]

I don’t see how it’s going to get much worse than it already has in Venezuela.

Every forced regime change in history has ended up worse. Maybe not panama but the us had its hands in that country so much over the last century thats not exactly a slam dunk

 

[PpfSuxTube]

When you put it that way, sure. I consider most of our conquests after ww2 to be puppet states until they got off their feet.

Japan, west Germany, South Korea, Philippines.

All were de jure sovereign while de facto under United States control.

Maybe puppet is the wrong word. There’s many examples of us plowing democracy into an area by forcing people or regimes out and the people there benefitting greatly.

It tends to work in places that aren’t ruled by radical Islam or ones that culturally or politically do not prefer free societies and democracy.

Venezuela is one of those places it could work. Normal people, once upon a time were doing well, they got taken the wrong way by a corrupt regime that took advantage of the people there.

That could reverse without that regime in place if western capitalism is willing to invest money into the place

None of that is true.

 

[DocMcCoy]

I gave you Sri Lanka as an example I potentially could agree with being a puppet state.

Uh huh, and North Korea, and Belarus, Syria, Laos, Cambodia, VENEZUELA… what do ALL of this things have in common. China and Russia pulling the strings. That’s how the axis of authoritarianism’s “influence” works.

I think it's more appropriate to say sphere of influence, but I won't debate the point further. Venezuela is not a bantustan.

Semantic evasion. They project their influence like the mafia does.

We are engaged in vigorous but not existential competition currently. That's the distinction I would draw.

“Vigorous competition”. lol. Ok. You are just behind the curve.

Your colleague argues not unpersuasively it's already a puppet state, just for China.

Yes. China and Russia. Open your eyes man. It’s logically beyond a disagreement and you are twisting it into a vocabulary problem. It’s not hard, it’s just not what you want to hear.

 

[pgg]

There’s many examples of us plowing democracy into an area by forcing people or regimes out and the people there benefitting greatly.

Could you give us some of those examples?

Apart from Post-WWII Germany and Japan, I mean.

 

[cchoukal]

Norway seems pretty nice tbh. It’s a petrostate essentially

Sure, now imagine someone comes in to extract the oil out form under them; you imagine that Norwegians' standards of living would improve?

 

[aneftp]

so the USA can remove any dictator they want outside of China Russia Right?

They had/have 60 years to get rid of Castro and his brother in Cuba. Anytime they want.

After-all using Trump’s statement. Cuba nationalized may USA properties in Cuba with the revolution.

This isn’t about drugs with Venezuela. Cuba doesn’t have oil.

 

[DocMcCoy]

They had/have 60 years to get rid of Castro and his brother in Cuba. Anytime they want

We allegedly tried “hundreds” of times.

This isn’t about drugs with Venezuela. Cuba doesn’t have oil.

We know it’s about oil. It’s not only about the oil.

 

[Account1]

None of that is true.

Explain in detail why having Maduro there is a better option.

 

[rowsdower88]

“Vigorous competition”. lol. Ok. You are just behind the curve.

Or are you just looking to justify US intervention as pre-emptive defense. If it's an existential threat, anything is justified. How many atrocities did we justify during the last Cold War?

I'll say the idea we are currently involved in a cold war isn't settled.

There are too many differences between our relationship with China and our relationship with the USSR to count. The biggest one is that China is our 3rd largest trading partner. You know this. Trading hundreds of billions of dollars with someone you're "in a cold war with" certainly seems odd.

By describing it as a Cold War already you're ignoring steps we could take that would make it an ACTUAL Cold War. Like maybe not having China as our third largest trading partner.

Yes. China and Russia. Open your eyes man. It’s logically beyond a disagreement and you are twisting it into a vocabulary problem. It’s not hard, it’s just not what you want to hear.

"Not unpersuasively."

I'm losing confidence in your reading comprehension. It's not the language I would use, but if you want to describe it that way I'm not going to begrudge the point as I said earlier. You are, seemingly admittedly, stretching the term. You acknowledge that the vocabulary doesn't get you there, but they sure FEEL LIKE puppets don't they?

Again... you are stretching the term by labeling North Korea as a puppet state too. How many times has North Korea defied China wrt nuclear arms production and challenging regional stability? Clear "puppet state" behavior there.

 

[PpfSuxTube]

Explain in detail why having Maduro there is a better option.

Why should I explain anything?
Its nothing got to do with you or me or anyone outside of venezuela...

 

[DocMcCoy]

Or are you just looking to justify US intervention as pre-emptive defense. If it's an existential threat, anything is justified.

I'll say the idea we are currently involved in a cold war isn't settled.

There are too many differences between our relationship with China and our relationship with the USSR to count. The biggest one is that China is our 3rd largest trading partner. You know this. Trading hundreds of billions of dollars with someone you're "in a cold war with" certainly seems odd.

By describing it as a Cold War already you're ignoring steps we could take that would make it an ACTUAL Cold War. Like maybe not having China as our third largest trading partner

“Not unpersuasively”. Forgive me, double negatives obfuscate clarity; yet, I don’t question your writing ability. 😀

Arms races, technology races, economic weaponization, proxy wars, military posturing, international realignment, espionage, ideological divide, the open discussion of nuclear deterrence. This is our current reality.

Not a whole lot of unchecked boxes left.

If you are expecting this “Cold War” to exactly match the definition of the previous Cold War, we will never get there. That doesn’t mean it’s not happening.

You acknowledge that the vocabulary doesn't get you there, but they sure FEEL LIKE puppets don't they?

Again... you are stretching the term by labeling North Korea as a puppet state too. How many times has North Korea defied China wrt nuclear arms production and challenging regional stability? Clear "puppet state" behavior there.

I’m arguing what we are seeing in terms of a Cold War and puppet states is close enough to fit a modern definition. Your argument seems to be ya well it’s doesn’t exactly check every box so it isn’t fair to call it that. The point is it doesn’t matter. Look at how Russia and China exert their influence around the world, the goal is to effectively create “puppet states”, not partners.

Simple questions are:

1. Is Venezuela better off in bed with Russia and China?

2. Is the US better off if China and Russia are in bed with Venezuela?

If the answer is no to both of these questions, we should absolutely act to intervene in our best interests.

Maduro out is a good thing. Destabilizing Sino-Russian influence in the western hemisphere is a good thing. The work isn’t done but the potential upside is compelling.

 

[dabears505]

This has nothing to do with Venezuelan people. Trump, the rest of the republican leadership absolutely does not give a **** about any brown life. The reason life in Venezuela was bad was almost entirely due to the oppressive sanctions placed in our by the us. If there was any compassion towards the people there, the us government would have not placed those sanctions and living conditions would have improved.

This takeover is not about the welfare of the Venezuelas. It's about taking over the oil. So the next step after the oil takeover is to take out iran without any disruption of oil.

This is all of course to please our foreign rulers, whom we all know who they are.

 

[Account1]

Could you give us some of those examples?

Apart from Post-WWII Germany and Japan, I mean.

Every forced regime change in history has ended up worse. Maybe not panama but the us had its hands in that country so much over the last century thats not exactly a slam dunk

Italy, South Korea, Panama, Grenada, and the Dominican Republic are examples at a cursory glance.

 

[Account1]

This has nothing to do with Venezuelan people. Trump, the rest of the republican leadership absolutely does not give a **** about any brown life. The reason life in Venezuela was bad was almost entirely due to the oppressive sanctions placed in our by the us. If there was any compassion towards the people there, the us government would have not placed those sanctions and living conditions would have improved.

This takeover is not about the welfare of the Venezuelas. It's about taking over the oil. So the next step after the oil takeover is to take out iran without any disruption of oil.

This is all of course to please our foreign rulers, whom we all know who they are.

Damned if you do, damned if you don’t I guess

 

[DocMcCoy]

This has nothing to do with Venezuelan people. Trump, the rest of the republican leadership absolutely does not give a **** about any brown life. The reason life in Venezuela was bad was almost entirely due to the oppressive sanctions placed in our by the us. If there was any compassion towards the people there, the us government would have not placed those sanctions and living conditions would have improved.

This takeover is not about the welfare of the Venezuelas. It's about taking over the oil. So the next step after the oil takeover is to take out iran without any disruption of oil.

This is all of course to please our foreign rulers, whom we all know who they are.

Wow. Thats a hot take.

 

[Account1]

Why should I explain anything?
Its nothing got to do with you or me or anyone outside of venezuela...

Well I’ll explain this to you.

I think Russia invaded Ukraine because the west was looking to invest resources into its natural gas. It wasn’t ideological on putins part, it was economic in nature.

 

[rowsdower88]

Arms races, technology races, economic weaponization, proxy wars, military posturing, international realignment, espionage, ideological divide, the open discussion of nuclear deterrence. This is our current reality.

Not a whole lot of unchecked boxes left.

If you are expecting this “Cold War” to exactly match the definition of the previous Cold War, we will never get there. That doesn’t mean it’s not happening.

We conduct espionage against every nation on the planet. We have an ideological divide with half the countries on the planet. We are not at an increased risk of nuclear war due to recent Chinese action and they have been party to some of the many non-proliferation treaties with their current stated goal of mutual disarmament.

China is increasing military production and developing technologies, I'll give you that I guess. Military posturing in the South China Sea as well.

Not asking for an exact match. Maybe just not hundreds of billions of trade with our Cold War "enemy". We might get there, but Trump keeps walking back the tariffs.

Simple questions are:

1. Is Venezuela better off in bed with Russia and China?

2. Is the US better off if China and Russia are in bed with Venezuela?

If the answer is no to both of these questions, we should absolutely act to intervene in our best interests.

Maduro out is a good thing. Destabilizing Sino-Russian influence in the western hemisphere is a good thing. The work isn’t done but the potential upside is compelling.

It depends on what the intervention is!

We arguably could have gotten almost everything we're getting now a year ago via a negotiated deal with Maduro and his VP. (See my previous posts) There's a real critique there and the 40 some people (and potentially the fishermen/drug runners) we killed would be alive if we had pursued a different strategy.

I haven't argued the strike didn't produce good outcomes, but those good outcomes are likely going to be independent of whether or not Venezuela is a puppet state of China. They're dependent on Venezuela regaining a democracy and US sanctions coming to an end. This strike didn't evaporate the Chinese debt did it? That was one of your criteria earlier.

It remains to be seen how this will impact South and Central America more broadly and relations with China.

 

[pgg]

The reason life in Venezuela was bad was almost entirely due to the oppressive sanctions placed in our by the us.

Well, a chief purpose of sanctions in general is to motivate the people to demand and effect change from their governments. Sanctions aren't like getting free sprinkles on your ice cream. They're supposed to be unpleasant. That's the point.

All that said, blaming the average Venezuelan's sorry state of affairs on US sanctions alone is some mixture of naive and disingenuous.

As they say in the House of God, the patient is the one with the disease.

 

[dabears505]

Well, a chief purpose of sanctions in general is to motivate the people to demand and effect change from their governments. Sanctions aren't like getting free sprinkles on your ice cream. They're supposed to be unpleasant. That's the point.

All that said, blaming the average Venezuelan's sorry state of affairs on US sanctions alone is some mixture of naive and disingenuous.

As they say in the House of God, the patient is the one with the disease.

In this case the doctor is infusing bacteria into the patient because he won't hand over all of his money and resources.

 

[DocMcCoy]

We conduct espionage against every nation on the planet. We have an ideological divide with half the countries on the planet. We are not at an increased risk of nuclear war due to recent Chinese action and they have been party to some of the many non-proliferation treaties with their current stated goal of mutual disarmament.

Fair but also, it’s Sino-Russian. It’s not just China. And Russia has increased nuclear rhetoric, nuclear testing is possibly back on the table.

We arguably could have gotten almost everything we're getting now a year ago via a negotiated deal with Maduro and his VP. (See my previous posts) There's a real critique there and the 40 some people (and potentially the fishermen/drug runners) we killed would be alive if we had pursued a different strategy.

Well that is arguable. I’m not sure replacing Maduro with essentially another Maduro (as I’m reading it) was a palatable solution.

It remains to be seen how this will impact South and Central America more broadly and relations with China.

No doubt. Even Id feel better about it with a little bit more competence at the helm.

 

[rowsdower88]

Well that is arguable. I’m not sure replacing Maduro with essentially another Maduro (as I’m reading it) was a palatable solution.

It's not my solution, it's the solution Trump is currently satisfied with. He's saying she (and Rubio?) is going to be running the country.

Maybe he'll take her out too, who knows at this point. But the status quo arguably could have been achieved within existing international legal norms, with fewer lives lost/injured, and with fewer American dollars spent.

 

[DocMcCoy]

It's not my solution, it's the solution Trump is currently satisfied with. He's saying she (and Rubio?) is going to be running the country.

Maybe he'll take her out too, who knows at this point. But the status quo arguably could have been achieved within existing international legal norms, with fewer lives lost/injured, and with fewer American dollars spent.

Maybe. We will have to wait to see what the status quo looks like when the dust settles.

 

[PpfSuxTube]

Well I’ll explain this to you.

I think Russia invaded Ukraine because the west was looking to invest resources into its natural gas. It wasn’t ideological on putins part, it was economic in nature.

So you're saying trump has invaded Venezuela and its purely for financial gain?

 

[Account1]

So you're saying trump has invaded Venezuela and its purely for financial gain?

I'm saying I think you may like this comic:

https://www.seattletimes.com/comics-universal/?amu=/nonsequitur/

I'll be ignoring you now, cheers!

 

[Account1]

It's not my solution, it's the solution Trump is currently satisfied with. He's saying she (and Rubio?) is going to be running the country.

Maybe he'll take her out too, who knows at this point. But the status quo arguably could have been achieved within existing international legal norms, with fewer lives lost/injured, and with fewer American dollars spent.

I think most people would prefer bloodless solutions to complex problems involving strongmen, but that's difficult to realistically imagine with someone who exercises authority like Maduro has.

I think the point you make about tons of people already having left will throw a lot of problems into any reconstruction of that country. Most of the able bodied or reasonable people may have already left the country which would leave behind the less exploratory or more contented people who aren’t willing to strike out for something better. If those are the bones left of a society then any leap forward could be really challenging unfortunately

 

[PpfSuxTube]

I'm saying I think you may like this comic:

https://www.seattletimes.com/comics-universal/?amu=/nonsequitur/

I'll be ignoring you now, cheers!

This is very upsetting for me

 

[pgg]

I think most people would prefer bloodless solutions to complex problems involving strongmen, but that's difficult to realistically imagine with someone who exercises authority like Maduro has.

I think the point you make about tons of people already having left will throw a lot of problems into any reconstruction of that country. Most of the able bodied or reasonable people may have already left the country which would leave behind the less exploratory or more contented people who aren’t willing to strike out for something better. If those are the bones left of a society then any leap forward could be really challenging unfortunately

On a related note, I often wonder that about Russia.

The people who could leave, have largely already left. Educated and moderately wealthy (but not oligarch wealthy beholden to Putin) and young/adventurous.

A whole lot of the remaining able-bodied people are decomposing in Ukraine. What's left? The old and the helpless.

Even if Putin magically goes away - Russia is completely and thoroughly boned for generations to come.

I wouldn't really care, except that I worry about nuclear proliferation, with the kleptocracy selling nukes and the incompetocracy losing track of nukes.

Over/under on the first city-sized mushroom cloud since WWII? By 2040? 2050? Pre-Ukraine I'd have bet on Pakistan sourcing the bomb, but now my money's on Russia.

 

[narcotics999]

Simple questions are:

1. Is Venezuela better off in bed with Russia and China?

2. Is the US better off if China and Russia are in bed with Venezuela?

If the answer is no to both of these questions, we should absolutely act to intervene in our best interests.

Maduro out is a good thing. Destabilizing Sino-Russian influence in the western hemisphere is a good thing. The work isn’t done but the potential upside is compelling.

Does it mean rich people can just snatch poor people's kids because 1) kids will be better off 2) you are better off because somehow you like kids and don't have yours or enough of yours?

 

[narcotics999]

When you put it that way, sure. I consider most of our conquests after ww2 to be puppet states until they got off their feet.

Japan, west Germany, South Korea, Philippines.

All were de jure sovereign while de facto under United States control.

Maybe puppet is the wrong word. There’s many examples of us plowing democracy into an area by forcing people or regimes out and the people there benefitting greatly.

It tends to work in places that aren’t ruled by radical Islam or ones that culturally or politically do not prefer free societies and democracy.

Venezuela is one of those places it could work. Normal people, once upon a time were doing well, they got taken the wrong way by a corrupt regime that took advantage of the people there.

That could reverse without that regime in place if western capitalism is willing to invest money into the place

Japan, west Germany, South Korea, or Philippines was different. In these cases, US did not initiate the war. US was the defenders or the liberators, not the invaders.

 

[DocMcCoy]

Does it mean rich people can just snatch poor people's kids because 1) kids will be better off 2) you are better off because somehow you like kids and don't have yours or enough of yours?

I can barely wrap my head around this to make it work in context, but here goes nothing. States aren’t children without agency and you are trying to replace a strategy and security debate with an appeal to emotion.

Your logic would essentially reduce any and all foreign policy to “kidnapping” or “harming the children”. Cant have secure borders, can’t have sanctions, because “the children”.

BTW, states do “snatch kids away” specifically when they are abused, neglected, or endangered. All of which ironic, because one political party is more supportive of paternalistic overreach regarding domestic and foreign policy.
Democrats wanted Maduro out right up until Trump took him out.

 

[sevoflurane]

Taiwan's not led by a dictator whose regime depends on one guy. Clear succession, it'd be business as usual the next day except for all the extra weapons they'd order from us.

You don’t think that one of Chinas top strategies would be isolating Taiwan from anything going in or out of the island- chocking them off from supplies and the rest of the world?

I am no military strategist, but I see a lot of barriers around being a reliable supply of weapons and ammunitions to Taiwan if/when they had a confrontation with China. Ukraine at least shares boarders with Europe. I still feel that Chinas 9 dash line is a land grab that would give them control over disputed islands, resources and trade routes. That pot has been boiling lately.

 

[pgg]

You don’t think that one of Chinas top strategies would be isolating Taiwan from anything going in or out of the island- chocking them off from supplies and the rest of the world?

I am no military strategist, but I see a lot of barriers around being a reliable supply of weapons and ammunitions to Taiwan if/when they had a confrontation with China. Ukraine at least shares boarders with Europe. I still feel that Chinas 9 dash line is a land grab that would give them control over disputed islands, resources and trade routes. That pot has been boiling lately.

View attachment 413538

I don't think China will ever invade Taiwan, because it's of no use to them in ruins. (I also don't think they're militarily capable of getting there at all but that's a separate topic.)

I think China is taking a much longer view, with an eye toward eventual reunification and domination via other means. Look how patient they were with Hong Kong, content to wait out a 99 year lease. And they even mostly left it alone via the one-country two-systems framework promised to run through 2047. (For whatever that promise is actually worth.) All so Hong Kong could continue being a western-ish free market capitalism source of trade and revenue for them.

They want Taiwan intact. There is just absolutely no way they can take Taiwan by force without sustaining massive losses and wrecking the stuff they want. And again it's not just the stuff on the island, it's the wildly successful western-ish free market capitalism wealth and technology machine that would dwarf what they got out of Hong Kong.

What I think China has observed in recent years, is the extent to which propaganda and other foreign meddling can mold public opinion and shape politics in adversary states. They've watched Russia's enormous success in fueling and manipulating the MAGA movement. And I think their most likely mechanism for retaking Taiwan (intact) is something similar to grow a pro-China movement within Taiwan.

I know, it's hard to believe there are enough gullible people in Taiwan to get suckered into something that absurd, but hey, 20 years ago, who'd have imagined that the Party Of Reagan and red-blooded Republicans steeped in bald eagle tears would kneel so eagerly to pro-Russia propaganda. But here we are.



Standard disclaimer - I am, of course, just a guy on the internet, with an opinion and a keyboard

 

[sevoflurane]

I don't think China will ever invade Taiwan, because it's of no use to them in ruins. (I also don't think they're militarily capable of getting there at all but that's a separate topic.)

I think China is taking a much longer view, with an eye toward eventual reunification and domination via other means. Look how patient they were with Hong Kong, content to wait out a 99 year lease. And they even mostly left it alone via the one-country two-systems framework promised to run through 2047. (For whatever that promise is actually worth.) All so Hong Kong could continue being a western-ish free market capitalism source of trade and revenue for them.

They want Taiwan intact. There is just absolutely no way they can take Taiwan by force without sustaining massive losses and wrecking the stuff they want. And again it's not just the stuff on the island, it's the wildly successful western-ish free market capitalism wealth and technology machine that would dwarf what they got out of Hong Kong.

What I think China has observed in recent years, is the extent to which propaganda and other foreign meddling can mold public opinion and shape politics in adversary states. They've watched Russia's enormous success in fueling and manipulating the MAGA movement. And I think their most likely mechanism for retaking Taiwan (intact) is something similar to grow a pro-China movement within Taiwan.

I know, it's hard to believe there are enough gullible people in Taiwan to get suckered into something that absurd, but hey, 20 years ago, who'd have imagined that the Party Of Reagan and red-blooded Republicans steeped in bald eagle tears would kneel so eagerly to pro-Russia propaganda. But here we are.



Standard disclaimer - I am, of course, just a guy on the internet, with an opinion and a keyboard

Always like your take. One thing that China has been demanding is access to tech. They have doubled down on that notion and it's a good strategy for a nation that has an enormous physical work force and hungry armed forces..
Leaving Taiwan anything like Gaza would be a costly endeavor with diminishing to little returns.

 

[Account1]

I don't think China will ever invade Taiwan, because it's of no use to them in ruins. (I also don't think they're militarily capable of getting there at all but that's a separate topic.)

I think China is taking a much longer view, with an eye toward eventual reunification and domination via other means. Look how patient they were with Hong Kong, content to wait out a 99 year lease. And they even mostly left it alone via the one-country two-systems framework promised to run through 2047. (For whatever that promise is actually worth.) All so Hong Kong could continue being a western-ish free market capitalism source of trade and revenue for them.

They want Taiwan intact. There is just absolutely no way they can take Taiwan by force without sustaining massive losses and wrecking the stuff they want. And again it's not just the stuff on the island, it's the wildly successful western-ish free market capitalism wealth and technology machine that would dwarf what they got out of Hong Kong.

What I think China has observed in recent years, is the extent to which propaganda and other foreign meddling can mold public opinion and shape politics in adversary states. They've watched Russia's enormous success in fueling and manipulating the MAGA movement. And I think their most likely mechanism for retaking Taiwan (intact) is something similar to grow a pro-China movement within Taiwan.

I know, it's hard to believe there are enough gullible people in Taiwan to get suckered into something that absurd, but hey, 20 years ago, who'd have imagined that the Party Of Reagan and red-blooded Republicans steeped in bald eagle tears would kneel so eagerly to pro-Russia propaganda. But here we are.



Standard disclaimer - I am, of course, just a guy on the internet, with an opinion and a keyboard

Taiwan will be begging for a bailout in due time. They’ll have no money and no military as they experience the South Korea death. It just matters whether china or the USA is the one it goes to.

I agree no need to invade. Let nature and time do the work for you.