There's no need to be condescending, Dr. RogueUnicorn. I do understand the difference between speculation and articulation, and I agree that you primarily articulated (rather than speculated) scenarios in your response. However, when people write:
[ My quote comparing WMich to Northstate: So you know that while a new school like WMU will still have some hiccups, you'll get a good education. That isn't the case with Northstate.]
Those are affirmative, predictive (and I would argue, largely baseless) declarations of events that have yet to be determined. In other words, speculation.
I'm not making a declaration of any kind of event--just facts. Any new school is going to have hiccups. Even if it's a new branch of an existing system, you'll still have new professors, new administrators, etc., all working together to develop and implement new curricula and policies. It's inherent.
I was arguing WMU had a leg up in the process--they were already accomodating DO and MD medical students as a "base site" for MSU, and they had residency programs for every major specialty except OB-Gyn. That will help ease hiccups since a lot of the kinks of clerkships have been worked out--obviously the clerkships need to be expanded for a higher student population, but most of the building blocks are there.
Northstate doesn't have any of that. It doesn't mean I think they'll fail. It doesn't mean I think it'll be a terrible education. What it does mean is it's a gamble--aside from the dean (per this thread) being a dean at UC Davis, this school doesn't seem to have any actual experience. No prior clerkships like WMU. No existing residencies and close relationships to teaching hospitals like WMU. The for-profit thing doesn't bother me much--but the fact they are rushing their inaugural class makes me question their motives, and the fact they are in fact for-profit lends more suspicion.
There are a lot of red flags about this school--you put those all together and to me it means people that go here will be taking a big gamble. I'm sure the students will graduate (I doubt a modern medical school will go belly-up)--the question is will the quality of the education and clerkships be good, and how will residency placement be.
In all fairness, I probably would've said the exact same thing about RVU, though my understanding is it didn't have anywhere near the number of red flags. As I mentioned, I know graduates from RVU and the ones I know are doing very well--it's certainly possible the Northstate students will do very well. I suspect the ones that excel will be self-starters and study well on their own, and won't be dependent on the curriculum to learn medicine.
Still, with all honesty, were I in the same shoes as the applicants on this thread, I would
1) Not go to the Caribbean under any circumstance
2) Reapply next year if Northstate was my only option
2) Certainly reapply if I was just hoping to jump on the "fast trak" to medical school and hadn't even applied for a full cycle
3) Go to Northstate if I applied 2 cycles already without any success, still dream of being a physician (and am ok with a less competitive specialty), either have access to a lot of money (parents?) or am ok with borrowing $300k of private loans at variable rates (or fixed rates slightly above/below federal loan rates).