Call the bottom thread

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caligas

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let’s see who can call the “bottom,” based on lowest Dow close between now and dec 31, 2019.

Just chime in with “bottom” on the day you think we’ve hit it.

We can look back New Years next year and crown the king of market timing.
 
let’s see who can call the “bottom,” based on lowest Dow close between now and dec 31, 2019.


Just chime in with “bottom” on the day you think we’ve hit it.

We can look back New Years next year and crown the king of market timing.

Your assuming there will be a bottom in 2019?
 
Psai brings up an interesting point. We could simply state now our predictions for the bottom (and top) rather than calling the bottom in real time as I suggested. 19,500 is a good guess. I was feeling 18,000.
 
Psai brings up an interesting point. We could simply state now our predictions for the bottom (and top) rather than calling the bottom in real time as I suggested. 19,500 is a good guess. I was feeling 18,000.

No, timing is everything. It doesn’t matter if you’re right if you don’t know when you’re right. Keep it as it originally was.
 
I will say that calling tops and bottoms is largely academic. Successful trading doesn’t require you to get the perfect top and bottom. If you can get 60% of the move, you’ll be in great shape
 
I will say that calling tops and bottoms is largely academic. Successful trading doesn’t require you to get the perfect top and bottom. If you can get 60% of the move, you’ll be in great shape

In the short term, this assumes one has the discipline to cut losing swing trades loose once a hard stop loss is hit. Vast majority of people just can’t cut a red trade loose.
 
In the short term, this assumes one has the discipline to cut losing swing trades loose once a hard stop loss is hit. Vast majority of people just can’t cut a red trade loose.

Automated stops help with that. House money and sunk cost effects are real, and are really hard to overcome.

One should never be emotionally attached to their investments or trades, I still struggle with this, but the longer you do it, the easier it is to detach and stay freshly analytical.

Automated stops certainly help stay disciplined.

It’s probably an inescapable fact that the pain of a losing trade far outlives the joy of a winner, even if the loss is 1/10th the size. I hate losing.
 
I trade (options and crypto so you can imagine my thirst for action ) so tops or bottoms really don’t mean much ( the trend is my friend). I will say I think the “bottoming” is just beginning. They’ll be pseudo rallys, like yesterday, followed by today’s drop (closed some put contracts up 40%). If you’re looking for long term holds, DCA, sit on them for a decade and reap the benefits.

A stock in 2008 was trading at $2.50. This past summer that same stock was trading at a shade under $300. That stock was dominoes. Holding a pizza stock 10 years woulda got you 100x. Who woulda thunk it. Just perspective. Good luck out there.
 
So many variables. China trade deal and the FED are huge factors. One would need to get them BOTH right to pick a bottom or top. So, I'll guess 1 out of 2 happens in a positive way for the stock market. Bullish - 2750 for the S and P 500 in 2019. Top could be 2750 or 2900. I think 2750 is more likely to stick.
 
Wall Street S&P 500 Forecasts For 2019
Let’s now look at 2019 forecasts and see what some of the bigger hitters have to say.

Most Bearish Target: Morgan Stanley, Michael Wilson
S&P 500 Price Target: 2,750; EPS: $176 = 15.62X P/E

Michael has gotten 2018 right so far with a 2018 S&P 500 target of 2,750 – or no change versus 2017. Given Michael has the closest forecast amongst his peers, he deserves the most amount of attention.

Wilson is on record as saying that “we are in a rolling bear market.” As a result, he forecasts no change again in the S&P 500 for 2019. Two years of dead money folks! Suddenly, earning 2% – 2.5% on a 12-month CD or 12-month Treasury sounds quite appealing. Besides my public REITs and private real estate crowdfunding investments, my next best performing asset in 4Q2018 is my money market account.

Despite having a 2,750 S&P 500 price target for 2019, he does have a bull and bear case of 3,000 and 2,400, respectively.

2019 S&P 500 Price Targets By Wall Street Strategists Are Mostly Bullish
 
I will say that calling tops and bottoms is largely academic. Successful trading doesn’t require you to get the perfect top and bottom. If you can get 60% of the move, you’ll be in great shape

Great post. Nobody can time the bottom or top but those that can get close enough (within 10%) make a lot of money.
 
Michael has gotten 2018 right so far with a 2018 S&P 500 target of 2,750 – or no change versus 2017. Given Michael has the closest forecast amongst his peers, he deserves the most amount of attention.

I find this part hilarious since objective evidence says he is no more likely than any of his other peers to be right the following year. It's like assuming the guy that won the coin flipping competition last week is going to win it next week. I mean if he brings his own loaded coin to play with, sure, but if it's the same coin as everyone else he isn't any more likely to win.
 
I think it's less an assumption than it is a mathematical fact. By definition, there will be some day that the DOW is at its lowest point for the year.
anyone how has lived thru some big bears knows that it's not the yrs low that's the issue is he MOVES low this can span callender years..... remember 07-08?!?
 
Not into calling the bottom... but...

China-US tariff talks and Powell’s recent “flexibility” on rate hikes seem to be what the market has been asking for.

I’ve been adding to positions the last couple of trade days.
 
Not into calling the bottom... but...

China-US tariff talks and Powell’s recent “flexibility” on rate hikes seem to be what the market has been asking for.

I’ve been adding to positions the last couple of trade days.

I was buying good stocks and the overall market when the indices were 7% from the high. I kept buying as the market dropped. As a result, my overall portfolio is only off 2% from the market highs.

At current valuation the overall market is close to fair value. I think there is still more room to the upside of around 5-10% but downside risk of 20% is also there if the China tariff situation worsens.
 
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Wait. . . wrong kinda bottom. Sorry.
 
The stock market is at record highs. As usual, all the experts got 2019 wrong. Now, they want to "speculate" on 2020. Again, we have no idea what lies ahead but never bet against the USA. I also think the developing markets will do well in 2020 if the recovery continues. I have positioned my portfolio conservatively heading into 2020 but I still believe the biggest gains over the next 5 years will be the emerging or developing markets so I am overweight in those areas. These have not done well the past 24 months.

Bitcoin? Who knows. Gold? Sure, but only as a small portion of the portfolio. The U.S. National debt is still troubling to me even though most seem to ignore it. At some point it will matter and when it does all bets are off.
 
The U.S. national debt has now reached 110 percent of the country’s gross domestic product.

What is the national debt?
The U.S. national debt is created by each year’s federal budget deficit, or how much the federal government spends beyond what it takes in, and interest on the debt itself.
The federal deficit has been skyrocketing year over year during the Trump administration. According to data published by the White House’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the federal deficit passed $1 trillion between 2009 and 2012 as the government employed anti-recession measures. By 2013 it had dropped to $678 billion, then fell even further the following year to $484 billion. The last year that the federal government ran a surplus was in 2001.

  • 2013: $678 billion
  • 2014: $484 billion
  • 2015: $442 billion
  • 2016: $585 billion
  • 2017: $665 billion
  • 2018: $779 billion
The OMB expects this deficit to pass the $1 trillion mark during this fiscal year and remain there until at least 2022.

  • 2019: $1.092 trillion (estimate)
  • 2020: $1.101 trillion (estimate)
  • 2021: $1.068 trillion (estimate)
  • 2022: $1.049 trillion (estimate)
The Congressional Budget Office has slightly more modest estimates, predicting in its August report that the deficit will hit $960 billion by the end of the 2019 fiscal year on Sept. 30, then average “$1.2 trillion between 2020 and 2029.”

What happened now?
Thanks to the deficit, the national debt has now reached 110 percent of the GDP. CBS News White House correspondent Mark Knoller noted that this is the “Largest Debt to GDP ratio since 118.9% at the end of WWII,” a number confirmed by the Congressional Research Service.

 
The stock market is at record highs. As usual, all the experts got 2019 wrong. Now, they want to "speculate" on 2020. Again, we have no idea what lies ahead but never bet against the USA.

gee, it's almost like we could have predicted their opinions were worthless
 
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