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Charts predicting MCAT Scores

Discussion in 'MCAT: Medical College Admissions Test' started by HappyMe2, Dec 27, 2015.

  1. HappyMe2

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    Hoping this would calm the nerves of some people, me included. :D I made an extensive analysis of the actual final MCAT scores. I work as an accountant and I need to see numbers.

    The link to the spreadsheet that I got the information from can be found here as well as the form to add more data. Thanks mcatjelly.
    http://forums.studentdoctor.net/threads/spreadsheet-for-mcat-2015-scores-now-has-form.1158041/

    I used the information posted to that spreadsheet, and added 42 more people and deleted duplicates, and irrelevant post from people that only posted one score. The actual sample for this was 288 people. For making the following analysis I used only relevant data.

    Analysis 1 Shows how many people scored above their practice test scores.
    Company/- Sample #/ Scored above / Scored = / Scored under
    AAMC fl--/-271 ----- / 95.20% --------- / 0.0%-- - / 4.8%
    Kaplan----/141 ----- /100.0% ------- - /0.0% -- - / 0.0%
    TPR ------/132----- /97.7% --------- / 0.0% -- - / 2.3%
    EK --------/83 ----- /98.8% --------- / 0.0% --- / 1.2%
    NS -------- /38 ----- /100.0% --------- / 0.0% -- - / 0.0%

    The average difference for each company test to actual test were
    AAMC was 6.03 points
    Kaplan was 14.06 ------------ *note this has data from before and after the changes to kaplan score tables.
    TPR was 11.70
    EK was 8.86
    Next Step was 8.51
    "*note you can add this amount to your score in the following area, but I recommend using the last table is more precise I believe. "

    The minimum and maximum differences in practice test from the actual test were
    "AAMC 14 max(over), -8 min (under)"
    "Kaplan 27 max(over), 3 min (over)"
    "TPR 22 max(over), -1 min (under)"
    "EK 21 max (over), -5 min (under)"
    "NS 21 max(over), 1.5 min (over)"

    Analysis 2 Compare Actual to Composite Average, (all test taken, includes,AAMC,KAP,TPR,NS,EK)

    ------------------------ Score range / Sample / Average Diff. / Standard Deviation / avrg score all test taken (composite average)
    ACTUAL TEST Score -> 521-528 / 51 -----/ 12.98 -------- / +-1.04---- --------/ 509.44 <- average score
    ACTUAL TEST Score -> 513-520 / 166 ----/ 9.49 --------- / +- 0.97 -------------- / 506.05
    ACTUAL TEST Score -> 505-512 / 65---- / 5.72 --------- / +- 0.8 -------------- / 503.07
    ACTUAL TEST Score -> 495-504 / 6 ----- / 0.80-------- / +- 1.61------ -------- / 496.91


    Analysis 3 Compare AAMC FL 1 score range to actual amount FINAL MCAT (use formula this y= 0.7133x+451.051 to convert AAMC Fl from percentage of Correct to percentile)
    ------------------------ Score range / Sample / Average amount over in actual test
    AAMC FL Scores --- -> 520-511 -- /102 ------- / 6.22
    AAMC FL Scores---- -> 507-510 -- / 104 ------ / 5.76
    AAMC FL Scores------> 502-506-- / 51 ------- / 6.44


    "Conclusion if you take more than 5 practice test, an calculate your composite average score, use one of the following tables and add the amount in the last column. " That will be your approximate MCAT score with a deviation of +-2.5
    Analysis 4 PREDICTION
    ----------------------------------- Score range /Sample / How much you can add as an estimate
    Actual overall average all test* --- <<<- 510 / 42 --- / 8.20
    Actual overall average all test* --- 509- 505 /124 --- / 10.01
    Actual overall average all test* --- 504- 500 /103 --- / 10.55
    Actual overall average all test* --- 499-492 / 19 - --- / 11.48
    Scoring under don't take the test
    NOTE- there was not enough data for averages above 515.
    ----------For this to be useful you need to take the score you got the first time you took a practice text. Next you need to calculate the average of all your scores (aamc,kap,tpr,ek,ns) added together.
    -----------*Actual overall average all test* is the same as composite average explained below.

    Analisis 5 People who took at least 5 or more practice tests

    Of the 288 sample, 155 took at least 5 practice test or more
    A 100% of them scored at least 1 point over their composite average*
    92.93% Scored at least 5 points over their composite average
    87.1 % scored at least 7 points over their composite average.
    65.2 % scored at least 10 points over their composite average.
    7.07% scored between 1 and 4 points more than their composite average.
    --------------* composite average the sum of all of your scores per test divided by the amounts of test taken.

    I just hope this helps predict scores. Remember this is not a definite predictor of your actual score, Statistics are never exact predictors.

    --------Made some corrections and actualized some more information. 12/31/2015---------
    Use this formulas to convert percentage of correct for AAMC Fl and the EK (substitute the x for the percentage of correct the result should be very close to the percentile average required to make the predictions. )
    Formula for AAMC is y= 0.7133x+451.051
    For EK use the following formula. y=0.4908x+473.13
    -------------------

     
    #1 HappyMe2, Dec 27, 2015
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2015
  2. popopopop

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    Great work!
     
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  3. TheOneAndOnlyJamesFranco

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    Not sure if this just made me more nervous because I am confused as hell as to how to use this data (although I commend you for your hard work!)

    If you would be so kind to take me for example:

    KAP1 499
    KAP2 503
    KAP3 505
    KAP 4 504
    KAP AVG = 503

    NS1 509
    NS2 507
    NS3 507
    NS AVG = 508

    EK2 71%
    EK3 67%
    EK AVG = 69%

    All exams are taken in numerical order... I am testing the 22nd and still have all of AAMC materials (and obviously a few more secondary exams) to go through!

    Thanks!
     
  4. OP
    OP
    HappyMe2

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    First we convert your EK scores using
    1. For EK use the following formula. y=0.4908x+473.13

    EK2 is 508 and EK3 is 506

    Now just add all your scores (499+503+505+504+509+507+507+508+506)/9 = 505.33 <-that is your average score use the following table

    1. Analysis 4 PREDICTION
      ----------------------------------- Score range /Sample / How much you can add as an estimate
      Actual overall average all test --- <<<- 510 / 42 --- / 8.20
      Actual overall average all test --- 509- 505 /124 --- / 10.01 << - Add this amount
      Actual overall average all test --- 504- 500 /103 --- / 10.55
      Actual overall average all test --- 499-492 / 19 - --- / 11.48

    your average score falls between the second score(509-505) range and the third score range (504-500) . Your average is pretty close to the third score range but closer to the second, take the second score range What you do next is take your average 505.33 + 10.01 = 515.34 approximate score, with the standard deviation your actual score should range between 513 and 518. I believe you are good to go. Remember the scores you use have to be the ones you got the first time you took the test no retake scores.


    You can also use the following data and get similar scores
    1. The average difference for each company test to actual test were
      AAMC was 6.03 points
      Kaplan was 14.06 ------------ *note this has data from before and after the changes to kaplan score tables.
      TPR was 11.70
      EK was 8.86
      Next Step was 8.51

    In this case add to your Kaplan average 502.75 + 14.06 = 516.81
    to your next step average 507.67 + 8.51 = 516.17
    or your EK average score = 505.34+ 8.86 = 514.20

    I prefer the Analysis 4 table, but as you can see both give you similar scores.
     
    #4 HappyMe2, Dec 29, 2015
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2015
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  5. TheOneAndOnlyJamesFranco

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    Ahhh okay thank you so much!
    I've been super neurotic about checking that spreadsheet every time I finish taking a FL looking over every single data point! But I think this formula will make it a bit less cumbersome.

    This is both reassuring and extremely motivating as I am for at least a 516 because I am retaking a 30.

    I am looking forward to how this range will change (hopefully for the better) over the next couple of weeks as I add more NS and EK4 and the AAMC exams!

    Would you say still that based on number of data points that AAMC sample is THE best metric?

    Just trying to think about when to plan that exam since I assume that is usually the last one people take...
     
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  6. CHoge25

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    I have the exact same Kaplan Average as you, and am planning on buying some of the NS/EK tests as well... Since you have taken all 3, how would you compare them and which would you recommend?? I am going to take the unscored AAMC FL tomorrow and want to have a couple fillers before the final scored aamc test.
     
  7. BoroPreMed92

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    How do we know that the scores will always be higher for the real MCAT? Are the practice tests available much harder than the real thing or something?
     
  8. OP
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    HappyMe2

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    AAMC Fl gives you the closest score to the actual tests score, if you see the following table
    1. Analysis 1 Shows how many people scored above their practice test scores.
      Company/- Sample #/ Scored above / Scored = / Scored under
      AAMC fl--/-271 ----- / 95.20% --------- / 0.0%-- - / 4.8%
      Kaplan----/141 ----- /100.0% ------- - /0.0% -- - / 0.0%
      TPR ------/132----- /97.7% --------- / 0.0% -- - / 2.3%
      EK --------/83 ----- /98.8% --------- / 0.0% --- / 1.2%
      NS -------- /38 ----- /100.0% --------- / 0.0% -- - / 0.0%

    95.20% people scored above their AAMC fl, scoring 6 points more on average, but there is still 4.8% people that scored under their fl. The next step and the kaplan fl have a 100% of test takers scoring above their averages. But to my preference based on the data I prefer going with the most secure one Kaplan average scores.

    If you take the following table
    1. The minimum and maximum differences in practice test from the actual test were
      "AAMC 14 max(over), -8 min (under)"
      "Kaplan 27 max(over), 3 min (over)"
      "TPR 22 max(over), -1 min (under)"
      "EK 21 max (over), -5 min (under)"
      "NS 21 max(over), 1.5 min (over)"

    You will see that the person that score the most above their AAMC Fl, scored 14 points over, but there was also someone scoring -8 under their actual score, in contrast kaplan had someone that scored 27 points over their average and the one that scored the less still scored 3 points over his average.

    The sample used for the analysis is 288 people, that is still an small sample to the thousands that take the test. But as more people post their scores to the spreadsheet the results will probably be more concise.
     
    #8 HappyMe2, Dec 29, 2015
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2015
  9. OP
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    HappyMe2

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    Based on the sample the following table correlates to higher scores than the average score you got from the practice Fl.

    1. Analysis 1 Shows how many people scored above their practice test scores.
      Company/- Sample #/ Scored above / Scored = / Scored under
      AAMC fl--/-271 ----- / 95.20% --------- / 0.0%-- - / 4.8%
      Kaplan----/141 ----- /100.0% ------- - /0.0% -- - / 0.0%
      TPR ------/132----- /97.7% --------- / 0.0% -- - / 2.3%
      EK --------/83 ----- /98.8% --------- / 0.0% --- / 1.2%
      NS -------- /38 ----- /100.0% --------- / 0.0% -- - / 0.0%

    AAMC sample was 271 people 95.20% scored above, 0% scored the same, and 4.8% scored under. For kaplan everyone scored above their average.....
     
    #9 HappyMe2, Dec 29, 2015
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2015
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  10. BoroPreMed92

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    Well honestly, that's a great thing! I have only taken one Kaplan full length and had been focusing the AAMC materials but for me, I saw serious deflation of my scores when I took one of the Kaplan full lengths and it caused me to panic a little so idk if im going to be taking another from Kaplan. They asked some really odd questions especially in the psyc/soc. I had to make really strange assumptions and they were much more in-depth than the others I have taken. But at least everyone scores higher so that makes me feel better haha.
     
  11. OP
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    HappyMe2

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    Am glad that helped. For what I saw in the data is that the people that scored the best were the ones that took many practice tests and review their weaknesses. They will always get higher scores.
     
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  12. CentennialYogi

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    Correct me if I'm wrong, but are not EK and the AAMC FL tests in the spreadsheet listed in percentage correct? If this is the case, wouldn't it then be dubious to try predicting your percentile (and thus score) from your percentage correct? Let me say I fully appreciate your data mining and analysis; I just want to make sure its premises are valid.
     
  13. OP
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    HappyMe2

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    You are right about the fact that they are given in % of correct answers. What I did was an assumption on the score ranges for AAMC https://aamc-orange.global.ssl.fast...-4aa0-90cb-70184be8c8b8/percentilenewmcat.pdf using the scale range in the pdf comparing it to percentage of corrects answers.

    Why the assumption? This is what I noticed, I was looking at pictures and data posted by people before AAMC standarized the score ranges in the PDF above, and the result for percentage correct had a strong representation for the assumption I made. To convert the percentage of correct answers to score with in 472-528 range. This held true almost always for everyone who scored in percentage correct above 60% . Given this I will not recommend anyone to take the test if their total average is 495 or below.

    Also plotted the percentages of correct vs the actual Final MCAT and got the following linear formulas
    1. Formula for AAMC is y= 0.7133x+451.051
      For EK use the following formula. y=0.4908x+473.13
    And that is how I got to the number for an average above for AAMC fl and EK.
     
    #13 HappyMe2, Dec 29, 2015
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2015
  14. BoroPreMed92

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    100% agree. I've taken four full lengths so far and reviewing what I have missed on them has been, by far, the most crucial step in increasing scores.
     
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  15. CentennialYogi

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    Agreed through my first 5 (of 14-16) practice tests.
     
  16. CentennialYogi

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    I still don't see/understand the exact data you used to go from percentage to percentile, but thank you for clarifying. I was most worried that the proposed model assumed percentage = percentile. In any case, I think you have done a great service for individuals (such as myself) wanting to gauge how they will perform on the real deal MCAT based on practice tests/problems.

    Later this week I plan to write to the maker of the spreadsheet and ask if he/she can add a column for the graded AAMC FL. That will probably be the most valuable tool for seeing where we are in our studying.
     
  17. CHoge25

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    Hello!

    Thank you by the way for making this.... this has been awesome in helping with my prep. Quick question: For the AAMC FL1 scores, since they are given in percentage, what did you use to convert them to a numbered scale. I am just trying to be consistent in seeing where I am.

    Thank you!
     
  18. CentennialYogi

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    I think you're supposed to use this chart. It gives you the old MCAT score from your percentage correct, and it's easy to go from the old MCAT score to the new one (the new sections are also on 15 point scales, so just add 472 to the old score estimation).
     
  19. OP
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    HappyMe2

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    Hi I just added a formula for converting percentage of correct to percentile, for AAMC (y= 0.7133x+451.051)
     
  20. OP
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    HappyMe2

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    Hi I Just review all the result for AAMC fl and EK and plotted linear formulas for each to convert the percentage of correct answers to percentile. You can use those formulas. Formula for AAMC is y= 0.7133x+451.051 , For EK use the following formula. y=0.4908x+473.13
     
  21. prealchemy

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    If I just have Kaplan tests, is there any way I can know the difference that only takes into account data from the recent scoring tables?
     
  22. OP
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    HappyMe2

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    It ain't possible at the moment. Many of the people that posted the data took some of their test before the change and others after the changes. But I don't have enough information to know for certain the score table used for each sample. What kaplan did was adding 0.00, 1.00 or 2.00 points to their score table. Some test keep the same score others when up by one or 2 points, base on what I saw. But basically the change was not significative enough. Maybe it will lower the average 14.07 by one or 2 points.

    In any case for the actual sample, kaplan specifically had a 94% chance you will score at least 7 more points over your composite average and an 86 percent to score 10+ over your composite average if you did 4 or more of their practice test. And that's what I like about the kaplan data, no uncertainty that you will score under the composite average. Since they actually underscore, like all other companies in the sample. Keeping people scare is a good way to sell them more stuff.
     
  23. dli42395

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    This is great and everything, but wouldn't the predictive ability of this be compromised quite a bit by response bias? I feel like not as many people who didn't do so well would be as likely to keep dwelling on their scores, let alone post them online.
     
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  24. ghiblijiang

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    Exactly how I felt. Most of the people posting those scores are well above 80% tile.
     
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  25. To be MD

    To be MD Med School Or Bust
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    @HappyMe2

    What is the meaning of an EK converted score?

    Are you converting the EK percentages to a score reflecting how an EK score exam would be scored as a practice (more difficult than the real thing) exam? Or, is the EK score from your formula trying to formulate how you would do on the exam if you were to take it tomorrow?

    I'm asking because if it's the former, a ~507 or so using your formula would be really good for a difficult practice exam, but a ~507 would not be ideal for the actual test.
     
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  26. Jsor20

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    There is a very very strong correlation to doing well on the AAMC practice test and a high mcat score. That's awesome to see. Thank you for putting this together!!


    Sent from my iPhone using SDN mobile
     
  27. David513

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    Thanks for the hard work! Unfortunately your formulas overestimated my score but maybe I'm an outlier. If you're curious, CARS killed me.
    Real MCAT=512
    AAMC FL=517
    AAMC FL unscored=81%
    EK FL avg of 1,2,3=70%
    OG Questions=80% all sections (timed 8min/passage)
    Section Bank just C/P=59% (timed 8min/passage)
     
    #27 David513, May 27, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2016
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  28. walloobi

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    Edit: Oops, nevermind! This post is awesome.
     
    #28 walloobi, May 27, 2016
    Last edited: May 27, 2016
  29. TexasSurgeon

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    Thanks so much for the incredible post. I think it is giving me some comfort. Can you tell me what you think of my numbers?

    My AAMC FL scored 1 was a 506: 127/126/128/125

    You didn't post any numbers on the ****** exams (presumably because they're newer and used less often) but when I take those exam scores and get the composite avg (with the scored #1 included), I get my composite average to be a 503.5

    Does this mean I can statistically add 10.55 points to my 506 (AAMC scored FL #1) to estimate a 516.55? Did I do it right?
     
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  30. walloobi

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    Since you scored in the 502-506 range, you should add 6.44 to the 506, so your predicted score is around 512
     
  31. TexasSurgeon

    TexasSurgeon Harvey doesn't get cotton mouf
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    Wow that's making me ecstatic right now haha. This statistical analysis is pretty accurate right?

    sorry for all the doubts just really happy about it rn haha
     
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  32. TexasSurgeon

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    Also wanted to add that the unscored sample FL predicted me to be at a 515 based on the excel SDN sheet (0.78, 0.91, 0.78, 0.75) but I have not included it because I took it once last August. Despite not remembering anything and being sure there was no score inflation, I didn't want it potentially distorting anything.
     
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  33. walloobi

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    Well the standard deviation for a sample size of 5 practice tests is 2.5, so the variation is probably a bit larger for just one test. For example, just glancing through the spreadsheet of the practice scores compilation, some people who got around your score got 509, and some got 520, so it's pretty tough to say, but you're likely to be in good shape statistically
     
    #33 walloobi, May 29, 2016
    Last edited: May 29, 2016
  34. TexasSurgeon

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    Awesome I'm stoked to hear that! Was definitely worried since I got a 127/126/128/125 on the scored test and the psych section aggravated me to bring me down. Going to stay confident now through Thursday
     
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  35. NecrotizingFasciitis

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    Even between the different exams I've taken (Examkrackers, Next Step, & AAMC scored) all of my scores using these formulas are lining up. Great job.
     
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    I read that Next Step changed their scoring (probably decreased percent correct to score higher). Are these reflected with these NS FL scores?
     
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  37. Seattle Mariners Fan

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    Kaplan's practice exams aren't terribly valuable; o-chem is probably 25% of their exams and is about 3% of the actual one. When you start with a flaw that big, why bother?
     
  38. SurgeonHopefulMD

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    At the risk of embarrassing myself I'll give everyone one more number of feedback for those who are lower scorers just trying to break average:

    Got 63% on the AAMC test right before taking it last July. Real Score: 497 When plugging in the equation, it comes out to approximate me getting a 496, so I scored 1 point above.

    This time around I have a 72% AAMC average.
    Incidentally I have a 60% EC average.
    Both equations predict my real score to be 502.5, which I would be happy with a 503... Cheers to hoping this equation real is magic.
     
  39. medbunny56

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    I have a question regarding the EK score conversion,
    I got a 62% overall on EK 3 and a 61% overall on EK 4, so my average is 61.5
    y=0.4908(62)+473.13=503.5-->504

    do I add 8.86 to 504 to get an estimate of my actual score? I'm testing this friday and would be ecstatic to get a 512!!
     
  40. NecrotizingFasciitis

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    I believe you are supposed to add the 8.86. I don't get my results until the 19th for the real MCAT.. But my AAMC 2 days before the real thing was a 515 and the only way my EK scores correlate with that score and all my other practice exam scores is if I add the 8.86.


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  41. walloobi

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    Yup, you add the 8.86
     
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  42. medbunny56

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    awesome! I really hope you got the 515! :)

    i really liked the EK format and hope to at least hit the 508 mark on friday!
     
  43. beOncogene

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    I average around 75% on EK. So according to this, I would score around 519 on the real thing (AAMC scored is 521). Hopefully this is true.
     
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  44. medbunny56

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    is the NS conversion valid with the current scale?

    I get a 511.7 on NS with these calculations and a 512 on EK and would be super happy with these scores on the real exam
     
  45. beOncogene

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    For NS, you add 8.51 to your average. So it's around 520. How many NS have you taken? The more the stronger the correlation. But either way, congrats!
     
  46. medbunny56

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    i've taken 7 NS (including the diagnostic) with an average of 503.2, the 511.7 was with the added 8.51 (which is a score i would be satisfied with!)
     
  47. premedkid1994

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    I would advise you to not add anything to your nextstep score. they changed the scoring system for that exam. The scores are actually pretty inflated. I got a 57% right on Bis and ended up with a 126 in that section loll
     
  48. Hospitalized

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    I don't think they are inflated or deflated. I just think they are inaccurate.
     
  49. medbunny56

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    what about EK?
     
  50. premedkid1994

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    yup. I honestly think you shouldn't worry too much about what score you are getting on those ns exams. Instead you should worry about the percent correct and always aim for 70% +
    same with EK.
     

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