Covid19 - clinical / epidemiological thread

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Newtwo said:
Didnt over 1200 people die in the states today from covid? is that weak and burning out?
Click to expand...

When the average age of death is 80 years old and 75% of all deaths are over the age of 70; I would consider that weak.

Media yelling from the top of their lungs everytime anyone under the age of 30 gets a positive test is getting old. Look at this dumb ****ing headline:

people.com

NFL Star Cameron Smith, 23, Learns He Needs Open Heart Surgery After Testing Positive for COVID-19

"Although this will unfortunately end my 2020 season, it is really a blessing that we found this," Minnesota Vikings linebacker Cameron Smith said
people.com people.com

One would believe that this player needs open-heart surgery because of covid with that headline, when in fact, the opposite is true.

"Earlier this week I found out I need open heart surgery to fix a bicuspid aortic valve that I was born with."

"I found this out after I tested positive for COVID and had to have further testing done as protocol. The Lord works in mysterious ways, but I could really feel him on this one!."
 
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ChiDO said:
When the average age of death is 80 years old and 75% of all deaths are over the age of 70; I would consider that weak.

Media yelling from the top of their lungs everytime anyone under the age of 30 gets a positive test is getting old. Look at this dumb ****ing headline:

people.com

NFL Star Cameron Smith, 23, Learns He Needs Open Heart Surgery After Testing Positive for COVID-19

"Although this will unfortunately end my 2020 season, it is really a blessing that we found this," Minnesota Vikings linebacker Cameron Smith said
people.com people.com

One would believe that this player needs open-heart surgery because of covid with that headline, when in fact, the opposite is true.

"Earlier this week I found out I need open heart surgery to fix a bicuspid aortic valve that I was born with."

"I found this out after I tested positive for COVID and had to have further testing done as protocol. The Lord works in mysterious ways, but I could really feel him on this one!."
Click to expand...
Well, I have worked in some of these Covid units and have seen quite a few 50 and 60 year olds die. But I guess who gives a **** about them right? In fact I took care of some late 30's and 40's who died too, and one of them had just given birth and never got to spend time with her baby. I have taken care of very few 80 year olds. They are mostly middle aged actually. At least in the minority population.
But hey, they are mostly minorities so people like you probably don't give a **** about them right?
Keep putting in those new knees, stay out of the Covid units, and keep minimizing stuff that isn't directly affecting you though.
People like you really need to keep some callous thoughts to yourselves.
 
Newtwo said:
Didnt over 1200 people die in the states today from covid? is that weak and burning out?
Click to expand...
Yes that's true, but deaths lag by one month. Not a good present indicator to look at. Florida Covid in the picture is fading hard at present while deaths set a new high today. Just an observation and hoping that trend continues.
 

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ChiDO said:
When the average age of death is 80 years old and 75% of all deaths are over the age of 70; I would consider that weak.

Media yelling from the top of their lungs everytime anyone under the age of 30 gets a positive test is getting old. Look at this dumb ****ing headline:

people.com

NFL Star Cameron Smith, 23, Learns He Needs Open Heart Surgery After Testing Positive for COVID-19

"Although this will unfortunately end my 2020 season, it is really a blessing that we found this," Minnesota Vikings linebacker Cameron Smith said
people.com people.com

One would believe that this player needs open-heart surgery because of covid with that headline, when in fact, the opposite is true.

"Earlier this week I found out I need open heart surgery to fix a bicuspid aortic valve that I was born with."

"I found this out after I tested positive for COVID and had to have further testing done as protocol. The Lord works in mysterious ways, but I could really feel him on this one!."
Click to expand...
How a pandemic became so political is just sad. And it's BOTH SIDES. One set of folks says it's a hoax and wearing masks is about restricting freedom, and the other side uses individual anecdotal tragedy as props to pull at your heart and selectively chastises which social gatherings are dangerous.

Today the record deaths in Florida are being twisted in media as evidence the pandemic is full blown there when the opposite is true in Florida (for now) where cases there are indisputably dropping like a rock. It's very difficult to know who to trust in such an agenda driven world.
 

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Newtwo said:
isnt it amazing how different people can take a piece of information and interpret it in totally different ways. more dead than ww1, 1200 per day = weak virus. idk... i guess you could probably prove today is sunday if you really wanted. makes me wonder what is the point of ever reading anything ever again.

just pull a homer simpson on it and chase some squirrels around the garden
Click to expand...
Before being so sarcastic and condescending I would think you would be mathematically enough to interpret the data knowing that deaths today is correlated with case volume from roughly a month ago. It is a mathematical fact that cases are presently falling, and there's nothing wrong with a little optimism that hopefully New York and other places are a sign that maybe there won't be much of a rebound.
 
We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
How a pandemic became so political is just sad. And it's BOTH SIDES. One set of folks says it's a hoax and wearing masks is about restricting freedom, and the other side uses individual anecdotal tragedy as props to pull at your heart and selectively chastises which social gatherings are...
Click to expand...

Anecdotal tragedies reflect reality. Few people see what we see in the ICUs and covid floors. That might make people aware that social distancing and wearing masks is the right thing to do. People are dying. You seem to think that stories covering tragedy is leftist propaganda

Your argument is weak. Would you also argue it is political to put warning stickers and graphic pictures of diseased hearts and lungs on cigarette cartons?

Trump made this political by peddling conspiracy theories and fantasy.
 
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ChiDO said:
Facts don't care about feelings.
Click to expand...

If you look at the JHU mortality anaylses, the FACTS show that the US has been hit hard. We did it to ourselves. You can blame the the media and that's fine I guess, but you can't be honest and pretend that the President didn't play his part. He was against masks. Against closing the economy. Against testing. That COVID19 became a political issue is due both to the actions of the President and the media. I get that you and others like and plan to vote for Trump, but you should at least be honest about it all.
 
coffeebythelake said:
Anecdotal tragedies reflect reality. Few people see what we see in the ICUs and covid floors. That might make people aware that social distancing and wearing masks is the right thing to do. People are dying. You seem to think that stories covering tragedy is leftist propaganda

Your argument is weak. Would you also argue it is political to put warning stickers and graphic pictures of diseased hearts and lungs on cigarette cartons?

Trump said, there are "very fine people on both sides..."

There aren't.
Click to expand...
I'll believe you that the anecdotal stories aren't agenda driven when I see anecdotal stories about the tragedies of David Dorn and others. It's very naive to think the media isn't agenda driven.

What's the CNN story today, Deaths are peaking in Florida, or new cases are falling significantly? As one geriatric would say, C'mon maaaannnn.
 
We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
I'll believe you that the anecdotal stories aren't agenda driven when I see anecdotal stories about the tragedies of David Dorn and others. It's very naive to think the media isn't agenda driven.

What's the CNN story today, Deaths are peaking in Florida, or new cases are falling significantly? As one geriatric would say, C'mon maaaannnn.
Click to expand...

Sure if this is all you look for then you overlook this

But I agree, the media is agenda driven. FoxNews is just as guilty as CNN.
 
We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
Before being so sarcastic and condescending I would think you would be mathematically enough to interpret the data knowing that deaths today is correlated with case volume from roughly a month ago. It is a mathematical fact that cases are presently falling, and there's nothing wrong with a little optimism that hopefully New York and other places are a sign that maybe there won't be much of a rebound.
Click to expand...
I wasnt particularly referring to you in that. well i was a little bit. Sorry about that (within reason). I do think your opinion is very wrong tbh

but i was making an observation about how we all interpret the same info differently, sometimes vastly differently. Covid or non covid. It does continue to amaze me
 
We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
Yes that's true, but deaths lag by one month. Not a good present indicator to look at. Florida Covid in the picture is fading hard at present while deaths set a new high today. Just an observation and hoping that trend continues.
Click to expand...

Florida has over a 10% positivity rate. They are not testing nearly enough and are not capturing a large proportion of their cases. Case numbers are unreliable. Deaths are a more reliable indicator.
 
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nimbus said:
Florida has over a 10% positivity rate. They are not testing nearly enough and are not capturing a large proportion of their cases. Case numbers are unreliable. Deaths are a more reliable indicator.
Click to expand...
Deaths today are an excellent indicator of case numbers roughly a month ago. Not really debatable. If testing was done 5x over the last month total numbers would be higher without any change in the falling rock trend. Straight math. In roughly a month from now deaths in Florida will be significantly down from today. We'll look back and see.
 
Interesting to see the supreme confidence in which people think that the second spike and now downward trend indicates that the shenanigans are now and forever totally done with. Probably the same people who prematurely thought the lull in June was also the end. And their shortsightedness will continue as they fail to realize that massive school reopening is going to contribute to a third spike of cases and deaths...

1597289987030.png


1597290013164.png
 
We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
Deaths today are an excellent indicator of case numbers roughly a month ago. Not really debatable. If testing was done 5x over the last month total numbers would be higher without any change in the falling rock trend. Straight math. In roughly a month from now deaths in Florida will be significantly down from today. We'll look back and see.
Click to expand...

If such numbers are so obvious why is the Trump administration and their sycophants so keen to hide them?
 
We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
Deaths today are an excellent indicator of case numbers roughly a month ago. Not really debatable. If testing was done 5x over the last month total numbers would be higher without any change in the falling rock trend. Straight math. In roughly a month from now deaths in Florida will be significantly down from today. We'll look back and see.
Click to expand...

You may be right. I can’t predict how people and this virus will behave.
 
vector2 said:
Interesting to see the supreme confidence in which people think that the second spike and now downward trend indicates that the shenanigans are now and forever totally done with. Probably the same people who prematurely thought the lull in June was also the end. And their shortsightedness will continue as they fail to realize that massive school reopening is going to contribute to a third spike of cases and deaths...
Click to expand...

Please explain how opening schools is going to create a 3rd spike. If you reference the chart ChiDO posted, there have been 20 kids between the age of 5-14 that have died from covid. If you wanna throw in highschoolers, maybe add another 100 or so. Those are an absolute drop in the bucket. All the schools need to be reopened. Period. Listen to the CDC and AAP. There's much to debate about covid, but I don't understand how anyone can think the cost-benefit analysis of kids going to school favors virtual learning.
 
Matty44 said:
Please explain how opening schools is going to create a 3rd spike. If you reference the chart ChiDO posted, there have been 20 kids between the age of 5-14 that have died from covid. If you wanna throw in highschoolers, maybe add another 100 or so. Those are an absolute drop in the bucket. All the schools need to be reopened. Period. Listen to the CDC and AAP. There's much to debate about covid, but I don't understand how anyone can think the cost-benefit analysis of kids going to school favors virtual learning.
Click to expand...

Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't the small children and high schoolers have parents? and grandparents? and other family members that could have much more severe effects from covid? A little bit of critical thinking is useful. Instead of saying that we should open the schools -- period -- maybe we should come up with solutions for how to do it safely.
 
coffeebythelake said:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't the small children and high schoolers have parents? and grandparents? and other family members that could have much more severe effects from covid? A little bit of critical thinking is useful. Instead of saying that we should open the schools -- period -- maybe we should come up with solutions for how to do it safely.
Click to expand...

Same way every daycare, grocery store and doctors office has been doing it these last 4 months?
 
coffeebythelake said:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't the small children and high schoolers have parents? and grandparents? and other family members that could have much more severe effects from covid? A little bit of critical thinking is useful. Instead of saying that we should open the schools -- period -- maybe we should come up with solutions for how to do it safely.
Click to expand...

Of course schools should take safety precautions, I didn't say we should open them with complete disregard for common sense. I just said they should be open, period. And they should. We know children are incredibly unlikely to get sick and die from covid, and we also know that they are very unlikely to transmit the virus to adults.

www.sciencedaily.com

Children rarely transmit COVID-19, doctors write in new commentary

A commentary published in the journal Pediatrics concludes that children infrequently transmit COVID-19 to each other or to adults and that many schools, provided they follow appropriate social distancing guidelines and take into account rates of transmission in their community, can and should...
www.sciencedaily.com

There is TONS of harm being done to children by not being allowed to go to school, from the loss of social interaction/development, to poorer learning (in most homes), to decreased access to free lunches for kids that depend on them, to decreased reporting of abuse and neglect. Not to mention the difficulty or impossibility of parents (especially single parents) to manage their child's learning while working at the same time.

No one wants any kids or teachers to get sick, but what's the detriment to the kids and society as a whole from shutting down the schools compared to the risk?

Have you thought about it critically?
 
Matty44 said:
Of course schools should take safety precautions, I didn't say we should open them with complete disregard for common sense. I just said they should be open, period. And they should. We know children are incredibly unlikely to get sick and die from covid, and we also know that they are very unlikely to transmit the virus to adults.

www.sciencedaily.com

Children rarely transmit COVID-19, doctors write in new commentary

A commentary published in the journal Pediatrics concludes that children infrequently transmit COVID-19 to each other or to adults and that many schools, provided they follow appropriate social distancing guidelines and take into account rates of transmission in their community, can and should...
www.sciencedaily.com

There is TONS of harm being done to children by not being allowed to go to school, from the loss of social interaction/development, to poorer learning (in most homes), to decreased access to free lunches for kids that depend on them, to decreased reporting of abuse and neglect. Not to mention the difficulty or impossibility of parents (especially single parents) to manage their child's learning while working at the same time.

No one wants any kids or teachers to get sick, but what's the detriment to the kids and society as a whole from shutting down the schools compared to the risk?

Have you thought about it critically?
Click to expand...

Hahahahhaha.. you got real pissed off there. Don't change anything in your post. I'm doing something important right now but I'll get back to you shortly.
 
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Matty44 said:
Real pissed off???

And why would i change anything :shrug:
Click to expand...
Don't sound pissed of at all. You're just trying to add some perspective to a tunnel vision view: Covid deaths... There seem to be no other parameters of importance.

I don't believe any other disease or community issue has ever been looked at with such a strict viewpoint.
 
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Some brief points:

Tocilizumab failed in severe covid 19 clinical trials. Research being done to see effects of tocilizumab in combination with antivirals. Roche provides an update on the phase III COVACTA trial of Actemra/RoActemra in hospitalised patients with severe COVID-19 associated pneumonia

Some discussion on how covid 19 could be a problem when flu season arrives given similarity with its symptoms. But there have been reports that covid 19 safety measures like masks, handwashing, distancing etc can help fight off the flu very quickly. Modeling the Onset of Symptoms of COVID-19

Some ECG insights into covid 19 mortality. Left and right sided heart failure highlighted in ECG seem to be important indicators of covid 19 mortality. https://www.onlinejcf.com/article/S1071-9164(20)30605-9/fulltext#



A lot of discussion about convalescent plasma, which may be helpful when given early and are rich with antibodies. But really, we need RCTs. The data's apparently too weak and RCTs are the gold standard.
 
Let me repeat this one more time. Unfortunately once you make it to the ICU, nothing seems to help. Your body is going to do what your body is going to do.
And for most people that means eventually ending up wrapped in plastic. I code patients almost every day. And they all die. Ask any intensivist what their success rate is in Covid. It is dismal.
 
Following videos are only few min (like about 5) but well worth the watch. It's about cheap covid 19 tests that can be used rapidly in large scale and help with reopening






Also it seems steroids are helpful for reducing covid 19 mortality.

www.statnews.com

Inexpensive steroids reduce deaths of hospitalized Covid-19 patients, WHO analysis confirms

Based on the newly published data, the WHO issued new treatment guidelines calling for steroids to become the standard of care for patients hospitalized with Covid-19.
www.statnews.com www.statnews.com

jamanetwork.com

Association Between Systemic Corticosteroids and Mortality Among Critically Ill Patients With COVID-19

This meta-analysis pools data from 7 randomized trials to estimate the association between administration of corticosteroids vs usual care or placebo and all-cause mortality at 28 days in patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
jamanetwork.com jamanetwork.com
 
Why are Europe and the Americas getting hit so hard while Africa and Asia are barely touched? I don’t know the true number of covid deaths in China but their official number is under 5000. Korea is 393. Vietnam has 35 C19 deaths. Kenya has 660. Nigeria has about 1100.

The top countries in deaths/million are in Europe, South America and North America.

www.worldometers.info

Coronavirus Update (Live): 139,816,716 Cases and 3,002,419 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info
 
Last edited by a moderator:
nimbus said:
Why are Europe and the Americas getting hit so hard while Africa and Asia are barely touched? I don’t know the true number of covid deaths in China but their official number is under 5000. Korea is 393. Vietnam has 35 C19 deaths. Kenya has 660. Nigeria has about 1100.

The top countries in deaths/million are in Europe, South America and North America.

www.worldometers.info

Coronavirus Update (Live): 139,816,716 Cases and 3,002,419 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info
Click to expand...

I don't know, but its a good question.
 
nimbus said:
Why are Europe and the Americas getting hit so hard while Africa and Asia are barely touched? I don’t know the true number of covid deaths in China but their official number is under 5000. Korea is 393. Vietnam has 35 C19 deaths. Kenya has 660. Nigeria has about 1100.

The top countries in deaths/million are in Europe, South America and North America.

www.worldometers.info

Coronavirus Update (Live): 139,816,716 Cases and 3,002,419 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info
Click to expand...
I'm willing to bet China's number is entirely false.
 
nimbus said:
I don’t know the true number of covid deaths in China but their official number is under 5000. Korea is 393. Vietnam has 35 C19 deaths.
Click to expand...

What do COVID and Ivy League admissions committees have in common?


They both avoid Asians.
 
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Lots to learn from Sweden for the next time. For example, little known nugget, while we keep kids home falling yet even further behind than they already are falling compared to the world, Sweden schools remained open. Net result, zero deaths ages 1-19.

#teamsweden Strong!!

www.nytimes.com

Vilified Early Over Lax Virus Strategy, Sweden Seems to Have Scourge Controlled (Published 2020)

After having weathered high death rates when it resisted a lockdown in the spring, Sweden now has one of Europe’s lowest rates of daily new cases. Whether that is an aberration remains to be seen.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
 
We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes said:
Lots to learn from Sweden for the next time. For example, little known nugget, while we keep kids home falling yet even further behind than they already are falling compared to the world, Sweden schools remained open. Net result, zero deaths ages 1-19.

#teamsweden Strong!!

www.nytimes.com

Vilified Early Over Lax Virus Strategy, Sweden Seems to Have Scourge Controlled (Published 2020)

After having weathered high death rates when it resisted a lockdown in the spring, Sweden now has one of Europe’s lowest rates of daily new cases. Whether that is an aberration remains to be seen.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
Click to expand...

I think the lesson is that if you trust your population to behave responsibly, you don’t need draconian rules. I don’t know if that is wise here.
 
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JobsFan said:
so ... he recovers and we're going to hear how he beat the china virus - and how only weak people die from it, and all you worker bees should get to work to make money for the man.

... or he dies, and the nut job conspiracy theorists go into overdrive.
Click to expand...

Pretty much. If he dies they’ll say HCQ would have cured him but the Deep State cut off his supply.
 
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