Economic recession imminent

[Dr. Anonymouss]

Buckle up, a storm is brewing ⚡️⛈️

There are countless economic indicators out there, but the two I have gravitated towards are 10-2 treasury yield spread and the SAHM index. For those that don't know these indicators I'll give a brief overview below.

The 10-2 treasury yield spread is the difference between the 10 year treasury rate and the 2 year treasury rate. When the 2 year treasury rate is greater than the 10 year treasury rate we call that an inverted yield curve because on the graph the value will be negative. A negative 10-2 yield spread has historically been viewed as a precursor to a recessionary period.

The SAHM index signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.


This is the 10-2 treasury yield spread. Notice how every time the yield curve has inverted a recession followed shortly after. The recession has only begun once the treasury rate for the 10 year bonds outpaces the treasury rate for the 2 year bonds. Interesting for us, this event just occurred.

This is the SAHM index. Notice how everytime the 3 month moving average for national unemployment is 0.5 a recession has occurred. Unfortunately this doesn't predict recessions because it's data is 3 months in the past, so it is usually confirmatory for stating "we are currently in one".

Now does this mean a recession is guaranteed? No of course not. There is no such thing as guarantees in the finance world, we are confined to work with probabilities. What I can say is that the cost of food has become insane, the cost of housing has become unaffordable, and overall most americans are hurting right now from an economic stand point. When you factor this in with the indicators I've provided above I can say that the probability of a recession coming with a hard landing is highly likely. Let me know what you think. Let's discuss.

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[aneftp]

Are you a sahm stay at home mom ?

 

[linkin06]

Sell me your stocks man I’ll take ‘em

 

[CubsDynasty]

Why have all the other people that predicted an imminent recession was coming and all the other indicators (that had high probabilities of accuracy) over the past twelve months been wrong? This seems to me like JW's predicting the world is going to end, they just keep changing the goal posts and economists just keep using different predictors.

 

[amyl]

I don’t pretend to have as much knowledge about these things as you do…. But I am always looking for an education. So I’ll give my take for what it’s worth.
They dumped way too much money in to the system. I’m sure they thought they had to as no one knew how long the pandemic would last. But as a Monday morning quarterback, it was too much and wasn’t regulated enough.
There is no doubt that things are more expensive. Is that because things cost more to make because workers are getting better wages? Or is it that everyone, not just anesthesiologists, just want to be one fte these days? Did the pandemic show us all that we don’t need to live to work and we all just want to do 40h a week (or less?). Getting less work out of each worker just means you need more workers and more paid benefits.
I’m hopeful for a slow correction-

 

[sloh]

Maintain at least 6 months to 1 year income in savings. Our job market (most physicians) tends to remain stable in recessions. Keep dumping money into index funds. Recession? Great, time to buy more index funds at a discount for the eventual swing up.

 

[chessknt]

So what is your bet and how much of your portfolio are you putting on it?

 

[abolt18]

Why have all the other people that predicted an imminent recession was coming and all the other indicators (that had high probabilities of accuracy) over the past twelve months been wrong? This seems to me like JW's predicting the world is going to end, they just keep changing the goal posts and economists just keep using different predictors.

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www.instagram.com

 

[aneftp]

The stock market crashed 40% in both 2000-2001 and 2008

I hope it wipes out everyone including me. Why?

Because then will blame. Trump even after his loses the election lol

I truly believe the economy would really crash for along time in 2008/early 2009.

The big players who donate to both the democrats and republicans were done as well.

That’s how corrupt our country has been.

Having trump or Harris has zero meaning on the economy. It’s the under lords who run this country.

We are losing the true American middle class each day.

 

[caligas]

There absolutely IS a recession coming AND it is also going to rain.

 

[sevoflurane]

The stock market crashed 40% in both 2000-2001 and 2008

I hope it wipes out everyone including me. Why?

Because then will blame. Trump even after his loses the election lol

I truly believe the economy would really crash for along time in 2008/early 2009.

The big players who donate to both the democrats and republicans were done as well.

That’s how corrupt our country has been.

Having trump or Harris has zero meaning on the economy. It’s the under lords who run this country.

We are losing the true American middle class each day.

You mean this guy? Ya he’s been lurking in the shadows since May of 1977.

 

[aneftp]

There absolutely IS a recession coming AND it is also going to rain.

Good. We had a good 15 year run.

 

[pgg]

So what is your bet and how much of your portfolio are you putting on it?

This is the real question.

All the squiggly lines and chicken entrails and crypto believers and talking heads pretending they know something.

 

[UscGhost]

I don’t pretend to have as much knowledge about these things as you do…. But I am always looking for an education. So I’ll give my take for what it’s worth.
They dumped way too much money in to the system. I’m sure they thought they had to as no one knew how long the pandemic would last. But as a Monday morning quarterback, it was too much and wasn’t regulated enough.
There is no doubt that things are more expensive. Is that because things cost more to make because workers are getting better wages? Or is it that everyone, not just anesthesiologists, just want to be one fte these days? Did the pandemic show us all that we don’t need to live to work and we all just want to do 40h a week (or less?). Getting less work out of each worker just means you need more workers and more paid benefits.
I’m hopeful for a slow correction-

Too much money into the economy is debateable. Too little, and the economy crashes. Too much and it increases inflation. Both very difficult to predict so I don't fault them.
The economy was basically halted. They had to give out funds quickly. PPP loans aren't very useful if your business closes and you have to pay off everyone before you can get it. Fraud is the unfortunate cost of doing business.

Inflation was due to a massive shift in spending habits. People basically stopped spending on services (movies, restaurants, theme parks, etc) and dramatically increased spending on goods. It takes about 1-2 years for supply chains to adjust. Inflation on the prices of those goods was inevitable, unless everyone was broke and in poverty.

The US president at the time has zero control or influence on free market dynamics. Inflation will come down as well,with very little to do with presidential policy

 

[sevoflurane]

Buckle up, a storm is brewing ⚡️⛈️

There are countless economic indicators out there, but the two I have gravitated towards are 10-2 treasury yield spread and the SAHM index. For those that don't know these indicators I'll give a brief overview below.

The 10-2 treasury yield spread is the difference between the 10 year treasury rate and the 2 year treasury rate. When the 2 year treasury rate is greater than the 10 year treasury rate we call that an inverted yield curve because on the graph the value will be negative. A negative 10-2 yield spread has historically been viewed as a precursor to a recessionary period.

The SAHM index signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.


This is the 10-2 treasury yield spread. Notice how every time the yield curve has inverted a recession followed shortly after. The recession has only begun once the treasury rate for the 10 year bonds outpaces the treasury rate for the 2 year bonds. Interesting for us, this event just occurred.

View attachment 392307



This is the SAHM index. Notice how everytime the 3 month moving average for national unemployment is 0.5 a recession has occurred. Unfortunately this doesn't predict recessions because it's data is 3 months in the past, so it is usually confirmatory for stating "we are currently in one".

View attachment 392304



Now does this mean a recession is guaranteed? No of course not. There is no such thing as guarantees in the finance world, we are confined to work with probabilities. What I can say is that the cost of food has become insane, the cost of housing has become unaffordable, and overall most americans are hurting right now from an economic stand point. When you factor this in with the indicators I've provided above I can say that the probability of a recession coming with a hard landing is highly likely. Let me know what you think. Let's discuss.

My opinion is that nobody knows anything. People have been saying this for over 10 years and look what the market did.

Even Powell and the Feds admitted that the post covid economy was new territory the markets had never seen- and they (feds) got it wrong.

For anyone with a reasonable timeline a 40% correction should be met with open arms.

When it happens is the elephant in the room. It will happen, but nobody knows when.

Just stick to the plan, don’t do any emotional buying or selling and know that as a physician, this will be of benefit to you if you have investing years ahead.

 

[sevoflurane]

Based on the Jackson hole meeting, I am pretty sure that next week (tuesday) the Feds are going to drop rates and new highs will be had. Might already be priced in this close, but the markets will be happy for at least that day.

 

[sevoflurane]

September 2024 Fed Meeting Preview

The day we’ve all been waiting for may be nigh. Investors are anticipating the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will cut interest rates for the first time since 2020 at its upcoming meeting on September 17-18. But maybe don’t jump to refinance quite yet, rate cuts are likely to be modest for now

www.forbes.com

 

[aneftp]

Too much money into the economy is debateable. Too little, and the economy crashes. Too much and it increases inflation. Both very difficult to predict so I don't fault them.
The economy was basically halted. They had to give out funds quickly. PPP loans aren't very useful if your business closes and you have to pay off everyone before you can get it. Fraud is the unfortunate cost of doing business.

Inflation was due to a massive shift in spending habits. People basically stopped spending on services (movies, restaurants, theme parks, etc) and dramatically increased spending on goods. It takes about 1-2 years for supply chains to adjust. Inflation on the prices of those goods was inevitable, unless everyone was broke and in poverty.

The US president at the time has zero control or influence on free market dynamics. Inflation will come down as well,with very little to do with presidential policy

U nailed it. We need to get rid of both candidates.

 

[UscGhost]

U nailed it. We need to get rid of both candidates.

Well we already got rid of ours haha.

Trump is up next?

 

[marr65]

“Invest like an optimist and save like a pessimist”-Morgan Housel. Thank me later.

 

[Dr. Anonymouss]

So what is your bet and how much of your portfolio are you putting on it?

I sold my S&P500 index funds within my ROTH to secure my gains from this crazy bull market we have had. I transferred the funds to a money a market within vanguard. Importantly I still dollar cost average every single day to max out the 7k limit.

The beauty of the Roth is you can buy and sell However you please with no tax penalties. As long as you don’t withdraw funds from the Roth you can do whatever you want.

I am a resident so my retirement account will look vastly different than all of yours, but it still doesn’t change the question “do you feel strongly the market will continue to go up or do you feel more strongly the market is headed for a decline?” In this situation I feel very strongly a hard landing is coming and I’m putting my money where my mouth is.

I am very strong proponent of keeping it simple in terms of investing. Stick with index funds, invest in the entire stock market (S&P500), and invest for the long game. What I’m doing now is contradicting my 3rd rule, but that’s only because I feel so strongly about what lies ahead. It’s not a short term day trading position, it’s a long term position. I just plan to use those funds to DCA back into the S&P500 when the market starts to take the position I believe it will.

As I said before though, I still continue to DCA every back into the market from every paycheck. The only difference is I took a position where I liquidated all of my current holdings and moved them to a money market as a cash pile reserve where I am still getting 4-5%

 

[nimbus]

Yield curve inverted in 2022 and has been hovering near inversion ever since. But I agree we are due for a recession just based on time.

 

[anonperson]

Buckle up, a storm is brewing ⚡️⛈️

There are countless economic indicators out there, but the two I have gravitated towards are 10-2 treasury yield spread and the SAHM index. For those that don't know these indicators I'll give a brief overview below.

The 10-2 treasury yield spread is the difference between the 10 year treasury rate and the 2 year treasury rate. When the 2 year treasury rate is greater than the 10 year treasury rate we call that an inverted yield curve because on the graph the value will be negative. A negative 10-2 yield spread has historically been viewed as a precursor to a recessionary period.

The SAHM index signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.


This is the 10-2 treasury yield spread. Notice how every time the yield curve has inverted a recession followed shortly after. The recession has only begun once the treasury rate for the 10 year bonds outpaces the treasury rate for the 2 year bonds. Interesting for us, this event just occurred.

View attachment 392307



This is the SAHM index. Notice how everytime the 3 month moving average for national unemployment is 0.5 a recession has occurred. Unfortunately this doesn't predict recessions because it's data is 3 months in the past, so it is usually confirmatory for stating "we are currently in one".

View attachment 392304



Now does this mean a recession is guaranteed? No of course not. There is no such thing as guarantees in the finance world, we are confined to work with probabilities. What I can say is that the cost of food has become insane, the cost of housing has become unaffordable, and overall most americans are hurting right now from an economic stand point. When you factor this in with the indicators I've provided above I can say that the probability of a recession coming with a hard landing is highly likely. Let me know what you think. Let's discuss.

When I mentioned inflation and the cost of food in another thread, I got mocked by several posters saying the increase wasn't anything major.

I'm unsure of what will happen with the economy at this point. The market has been on fire for awhile now. I expect some stagnation at some point. It won't change what I do though

Continue to invest in VTI/VTSAX on a regular basis and continue to work.

Has worked out okay so far

 

[aneftp]

I sold my S&P500 index funds within my ROTH to secure my gains from this crazy bull market we have had. I transferred the funds to a money a market within vanguard. Importantly I still dollar cost average every single day to max out the 7k limit.

The beauty of the Roth is you can buy and sell However you please with no tax penalties. As long as you don’t withdraw funds from the Roth you can do whatever you want.

I am a resident so my retirement account will look vastly different than all of yours, but it still doesn’t change the question “do you feel strongly the market will continue to go up or do you feel more strongly the market is headed for a decline?” In this situation I feel very strongly a hard landing is coming and I’m putting my money where my mouth is.

I am very strong proponent of keeping it simple in terms of investing. Stick with index funds, invest in the entire stock market (S&P500), and invest for the long game. What I’m doing now is contradicting my 3rd rule, but that’s only because I feel so strongly about what lies ahead. It’s not a short term day trading position, it’s a long term position. I just plan to use those funds to DCA back into the S&P500 when the market starts to take the position I believe it will.

As I said before though, I still continue to DCA every back into the market from every paycheck. The only difference is I took a position where I liquidated all of my current holdings and moved them to a money market as a cash pile reserve where I am still getting 4-5%

Wrong move being young (just my opinion). You are trying to time the market by pulling out at the “peak”

How Long will you leave the money in money market?

We have guys congratulationing themselves by pulling out end of Dec 2021/jan 2022 when they market fell 20-23% for 2022

My friend had 1.5 million cash (like taxable cash) on the sides and missed the bounce back in 2023. So he would have been better off just keeping it in the entire time. And he’s was only 38 at that time.

 

[Numbtastic]

Anyone here try Hedge Fundie’s Excellent Adventure?

If the market actually drops, I’ll convert my HSA to 60/20/20 on UPRO / EDV / Fidelity Bitcoin Trust ETF. Maximum risk for the next 25 years.

 

[abolt18]

Wrong move being young (just my opinion). You are trying to time the market by pulling out at the “peak”

How Long will you leave the money in money market?

We have guys congratulationing themselves by pulling out end of Dec 2021/jan 2022 when they market fell 20-23% for 2022

My friend had 1.5 million cash (like taxable cash) on the sides and missed the bounce back in 2023. So he would have been better off just keeping it in the entire time. And he’s was only 38 at that time.

Biggest gains are usually immediately after a big drop. If you're out you miss both. I agree with you completely. Everyone should just be putting money in all the time, never pulling back to time the market. Pulling back because you need to reduce risk as you approach retirement is reasonable and a completely different thing, as it is driven by one's risk tolerance rather than market trends. Doing so because "the sky is surely about to fall" is a fool's errand and especially makes no sense early in one's career.

2 things can happen:

You can be right (lucky) and reinforce this bad financial behavior and idea that you can predict the markets as well as BladeMDA (zing!).

Or you can be wrong and hopefully have some sense knocked into you.

 

[Dr. Anonymouss]

When I mentioned inflation and the cost of food in another thread, I got mocked by several posters saying the increase wasn't anything major.

I'm unsure of what will happen with the economy at this point. The market has been on fire for awhile now. I expect some stagnation at some point. It won't change what I do though

Continue to invest in VTI/VTSAX on a regular basis and continue to work.

Has worked out okay so far

That is the plan. Continue to always invest in both of those until you retire. Never stop DCA’ing

 

[Dr. Anonymouss]

Wrong move being young (just my opinion). You are trying to time the market by pulling out at the “peak”

How Long will you leave the money in money market?

We have guys congratulationing themselves by pulling out end of Dec 2021/jan 2022 when they market fell 20-23% for 2022

My friend had 1.5 million cash (like taxable cash) on the sides and missed the bounce back in 2023. So he would have been better off just keeping it in the entire time. And he’s was only 38 at that time.

Yes, I would say this is correct 99% of the time, but like I said this isn’t a day trade type of event for me. These types of recessions come every 10-20 years and I believe we are headed for a big one. Only time will tell how it works out for me, but I believe strong enough about it that I’m willing to put my money where my mouth is.

I will continue to DCA daily into the S&P going forward, but now I have a cash reserve ready should my prediction come true. I think there are just way too many signals pointing red to believe that everything will be okay.

(Also my retirement account for Roth is 33k, so very different from all of you lol)

 

[PpfSuxTube]

Oh for **** sake stop with this ****e...

Experts have identified 30 of the last 3 recessions

 

[aneftp]

Yes, I would say this is correct 99% of the time, but like I said this isn’t a day trade type of event for me. These types of recessions come every 10-20 years and I believe we are headed for a big one. Only time will tell how it works out for me, but I believe strong enough about it that I’m willing to put my money where my mouth is.

I will continue to DCA daily into the S&P going forward, but now I have a cash reserve ready should my prediction come true. I think there are just way too many signals pointing red to believe that everything will be okay.

(Also my retirement account for Roth is 33k, so very different from all of you lol)

The issue isn’t thinking a recession is coming.

1. The issue is how long it will last

2. How long do you want to keep money on the sidelines

My advice is just keep ur money in vanguard total stock market index. If it goes down. So be it. If it goes up so be it

These are personal choices and there is no right or wrong answer because people risk tolerance is all different.

It’s a slippery slope when to jump back in

33k is good. I assume you are in your late 20s

Keep up the good work. Just keep it simple.

 

[Dr. Anonymouss]

Oh for **** sake stop with this ****e...

Experts have identified 30 of the last 3 recessions

Time will tell.

And look at the graphs above, mainly the 10-2 treasury spread. Every time there has been an inversion with a correction there has been a recession…. I don’t make this data up, I only follow it

 

[nimbus]

Time will tell.

And look at the graphs above, mainly the 10-2 treasury spread. Every time there has been an inversion with a correction there has been a recession…. I don’t make this data up, I only follow it

Yield curve also inverted in April 2022. Ask @anbuitachi about timing the market.

 

[PpfSuxTube]

Time will tell.

And look at the graphs above, mainly the 10-2 treasury spread. Every time there has been an inversion with a correction there has been a recession…. I don’t make this data up, I only follow it

Correction you didn't post any data.
You just posted another paltry indicator. Not data

I'm 20 years watching the markets. Snake oil salesmen have been peddling this things forever.

Nothing has ever predicted the future on a persistent basis...

So I'll keep buying. I'll buy yours too if you have any s&p... Of course if you believe your prediction then put your money where your mouth is and sell it to me at 75% what you paid for it... I mean when your recession hits you won't be able to sell anything cause the market will temporarily shut down... I think 75% is more than fair...

 

[AD04]

When you factor this in with the indicators I've provided above I can say that the probability of a recession coming with a hard landing is highly likely.

You're wrong. There won't be a hard landing for everyone. Main street is already in a recession. Wall Street is about to get even richer. In Q4 2024, risk-on assets will rip up so high. Not only am I fully invested with risk-on to the max (more risk than indexing in S&P 500), I took out 6-figures in debt to throw into the investments. Then in 2025, returns for risk-on assets will continue to explode. It's the wrong time to be risk-off.

 

[Dr. Anonymouss]

Correction you didn't post any data.
You just posted another paltry indicator. Not data

I'm 20 years watching the markets. Snake oil salesmen have been peddling this things forever.

Nothing has ever predicted the future on a persistent basis...

So I'll keep buying. I'll buy yours too if you have any s&p... Of course if you believe your prediction then put your money where your mouth is and sell it to me at 75% what you paid for it... I mean when your recession hits you won't be able to sell anything cause the market will temporarily shut down... I think 75% is more than fair...

I already sold it. And for far more than what I paid for it. And I’ll buy even more when the market corrects.

 

[Dr. Anonymouss]

You're wrong. There won't be a hard landing for everyone. Main street is already in a recession. Wall Street is about to get even richer. In Q4 2024, risk-on assets will rip up so high. Not only am I fully invested with risk-on to the max (more risk than indexing in S&P 500), I took out 6-figures in debt to throw into the investments. Then in 2025, returns for risk-on assets will continue to explode. It's the wrong time to be risk-off.

The price earnings ratio of the S&P500 indicates that the stock is highly over valued.

In addition, stocks and commodities move in cycles. When money starts moving into commodities that is a sign that investors don’t have faith in the future of the stock market. The price of gold has sky rocketed recently which provides all the information you need to know.

 

[nimbus]

I already sold it. And for far more than what I paid for it. And I’ll buy even more when the market corrects.

That’s the problem with timing. You need to guess correctly twice.

 

[AD04]

The price earnings ratio of the S&P500 indicates that the stock is highly over valued.

In addition, stocks and commodities move in cycles. When money starts moving into commodities that is a sign that investors don’t have faith in the future of the stock market. The price of gold has sky rocketed recently which provides all the information you need to know.

How good is PE ratio in terms of investing? Value has been underperforming for a decade or longer. Compare performance of Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) vs Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG). From January 2015 - August 2024, $10k initial investment in VTV would result in $26,175 while in VUG would result in $39,417.

More institutions are buying gold which drives up prices. But are they giving up equities or are they giving up bonds? I'll argue it's the latter. National central banks are buying gold like crazy. Which asset are they giving up if they buy gold? US treasuries. War with Russia may escalate. What happens during wartime? Inflation. What performs poorly during inflation? Bonds.

Since you moved from equities into money market funds, my guess you're expecting a crash in equities -- like GFC. It's not going to happen. Read Broken Money by Lyn Alden. She talks about the 1-2 punch of recessions in the book. The first recession is deflationary due to swelling of private debt that cannot be paid back. We had that during GFC. The second recession is inflationary due to swelling of government debt that is paid back by money printing. We're in the money-printing stage and will be until debt-to-GDP gets under control. We need more inflation for longer. What asset performs poorly during inflation? Bonds.

If you rather read free resource, read her newsletter for the month and understand what "fiscal dominance" means:

September 2024 Newsletter: Why Nothing Stops This Fiscal Train

September 8, 2024 This issue examines what’s causing the structurally high fiscal deficits in the U.S. economy, why the probability of meaningfully reducing them anytime soon is vanishingly low, and what investment implications this may have. For an initial visual, the Congressional Budget...

www.lynalden.com

I make way more money investing than in medicine. The way I do that is by going to where the puck will be as per Wayne Gretzky and then maximize return without tipping in ruin. To do so, I need to predict accurately.

Think about what you're doing from first principles. Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates in a few days. This means bonds (including money market funds) will yield less. This also means equities will increase in price as money will flow from bonds to equities to seek out return. You're pretty much going to where the puck won't be.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Let me give you my take on investing for the long run. There are those that trade (less than 1 year holding time) and those that invest. If you are an investor then stick to your plan of a 100% diversified equity portfolio or 90/10 (young investors) or a more balanced portfolio 80/20, 70/30 if over age 50. Of course, guys like Sevo have significant assets in real estate as a major diversifier.

Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face. As an investor, you must be willing to take a few punches because the rewards outweigh the pain. 99.5% of investors are terrible market timers; the chance they will be successful twice (selling then buying back in) is almost zero. So, develop a plan and stick to it. A person who sticks to a 60/40 or 70/30 plan is better off than trying to market time a 100% equity portfolio. If the pain or fear of market losses are too much reduce your exposure as I have done. I am expecting a market correction because I am always prepared for one. This means I have the cash available on the sidelines earning 5% (soon to be 4.5%) as part of my portfolio. Does this cost me some returns? Yes. I accept moderately lower returns for peace of mind.

 

[BLADEMDA]

 

[Simba1711]

The good thing about being a boglehead is that none of this matters. Just put the same amount of money in a well diversified index fund every month and leave it there for 20 plus years. Just make sure you can stomach the loss if there is a drop in the stock market. Time in the market is more important than timing the market.

 

[PpfSuxTube]

I already sold it. And for far more than what I paid for it. And I’ll buy even more when the market corrects.

When threads like this start appearing, it's my signal to buy...
Do you somehow think that you have access to knowledge and info that all the other Joe's don't?
I'm sorry youre not special and you don't

 

[ans2021]

 

[Dr. Anonymouss]

Thanks to everyone who made a meaningful contribution to this discussion. Some of you had some very good insight and advice to give. Very much appreciated. I will heed your words.

 

[Dr. Rude]

This is the real question.

All the squiggly lines and chicken entrails and crypto believers and talking heads pretending they know something.

This guy knew:

 

[gasdoc77]

As a general rule, I agree that "nobody knows nothing", efficient markets theory, everything is priced in, etc. Further, I place little stock in what any pundits say since they could just as easily be taking the other side of whatever they promote. I do, however, pay attention when insiders make moves. I think of BRK as similar to an ETF but also with some exposure to private holdings. Additionally, Buffet himself has been a net seller of equities as of late and isn't even doing buybacks, all of which would drag on his returns unless he has good reason.

Berkshire Hathaway’s Jain Sells Over Half of Class A Shares

(Bloomberg) -- Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s vice chair of insurance operations, Ajit Jain, sold $139 million worth of his Class A shares in Warren Buffett’s conglomerate.Most Read from BloombergHousing’s Worst Crisis in Decades Reverberates Through 2024 RaceHow Americans Voted Their Way Into a...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[linkin06]

We mooning. See ya paper hands!

 

[anonperson]

Market is up
Bitcoin is up
Gold is up

Better to just stay invested

 

[sevoflurane]

No surprise to see these new highs.
Rates got cut and it pusshed the market up.

 

[GassmanMD]

I already sold it. And for far more than what I paid for it. And I’ll buy even more when the market corrects.

LOL