Embrace the Madness - Hannibal WW Part Deux

[SportPonies]

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I think it's a post restriction or some form of role-connected thing, perhaps.

*squint*

I didn’t get that impression, it’s not been consistent from him

 

[potentialsheltervet]

I made up a bedtime story about submitting my night action.

I’d hardly call it a legitimate claim.

Spoiler

View attachment 367097

Okay papá

 

[potentialsheltervet]

*squint*

I didn’t get that impression, it’s not been consistent from him

Idk what he's doing then. I do appreciate puns though so

 

[lucy.]

I…believe this. @potentialsheltervet give me your thoughts

why did you believe this?

 

[Zenge142]

i'm curious, what are you specifically arguing. is it that my logic is unfounded because of a few counterexamples, okay so what's the conclusion and what's the purpose of sending the post?

I’m saying two things:

1: I disagree with the foundational merits of the assumption that because you’re a tourist, there must be a tracker/watcher.

2: Regardless of if there is or isn’t a Tracker/Watcher, having the conversation of solving that isn’t helping village find wolves, so it isn’t worth discussing.

 

[Zenge142]

why did you believe this?

Did you not?

 

[lucy.]

Did you not?

it's way too early to make that read, and i'm difficult to read correctly to begin with

 

[SportPonies]

I’m saying two things:

1: I disagree with the foundational merits of the assumption that because you’re a tourist, there must be a tracker/watcher.

2: Regardless of if there is or isn’t a Tracker/Watcher, having the conversation of solving that isn’t helping village find wolves, so it isn’t worth discussing.

I do agree with point one here, even if I’m not understanding point 2

 

[Zenge142]

I think it's a post restriction or some form of role-connected thing, perhaps.

No I just want to demonstrate the full effect of my softing my role from gGoats. So you really get the absurdity of it.

@Animal Midwife 👀 that capitalization choice

 

[lucy.]

I’m saying two things:

1: I disagree with the foundational merits of the assumption that because you’re a tourist, there must be a tracker/watcher.

2: Regardless of if there is or isn’t a Tracker/Watcher, having the conversation of solving that isn’t helping village find wolves, so it isn’t worth discussing.

1) your logic is anecdotal, mine is quite simple and straightforward, i'm not even sure why you disagreed with it because it is not alignment indicative
2) i invoked the logic because it is what made me claim, so i explained all my suppositions. consensus on who i should visit tonight is something i want discussed

 

[mightyrunner7]

Okay, so I want to provide some more thoughts on the Lupin Rule:

1. Having a rule cover the first 5 players is pretty arbitrary. 5 players in a 10 player game is much different than a 20 player game. A more robust rule would be a certain percentage
2. I'm going to compare posting order against wolfiness in the last few games. Santy offered that wolfiness was in the bottom 3rd, and I will hypothesize wolfiness is actual most likely in middle 3rd (middle of the pack, to better blend in)
3. Pasta - out of the 16 players, a wolf posted 8th, 10th, and 14th. This means 2 in the middle and 1 at the end
4. Noob - out of 22 players, a wolf posted 6, 7, 11, and 22. So 2 in the front, 1 in the middle, and 1 at the end. Notably, there were still 0 wolves in the first 5 posters

There are obviously many more games to look at, but this post is already long enough

edit - finished the post

 

[potentialsheltervet]

1) your logic is anecdotal, mine is quite simple and straightforward, i'm not even sure why you disagreed with it because it is not alignment indicative
2) i invoked the logic because it is what made me claim, so i explained all my suppositions. consensus on who i should visit tonight is something i want discussed

Why for 2, though? It literally doesn't matter who you visit. It's like a fruit vendor asking on thread what fruit they should send. It doesn't matter because it's totally pointless.

 

[lucy.]

Why for 2, though? It literally doesn't matter who you visit. It's like a fruit vendor asking on thread what fruit they should send. It doesn't matter because it's totally pointless.

it's life and death for me if i visit wrong and someone sees, but meh

 

[Zenge142]

I do agree with point one here, even if I’m not understanding point 2

How can you not understand point 2?

I’m saying we shouldn’t talk about village PRs.

You would agree with that, no?

 

[genny]

it's life and death for me if i visit wrong and someone sees, but meh

so if we discuss whomst you visit, and wolves kill that person, and you're tracked, how does that help us at all?

 

[potentialsheltervet]

Okay, so I want to provide some more thoughts on the Lupin Rule:

1. Having a rule cover the first 5 players is pretty arbitrary. 5 players in a 10 player game is much different than a 20 player game. A more robust rule would be a certain percentage
2. I'm going to compare posting order against wolfiness in the last few games. Santy offered that wolfiness was in the bottom 3rd, and I will hypothesize wolfiness is actual most likely in middle 3rd (middle of the pack, to better blend in)
3. Pasta - out of the 16 players, a wolf posted 8th, 10th, and 14th. This means 2 in the middle and 1 at the end
4.

shorty has some statistics she's posted previously on predictive value of the Lupin rule. At this point though, you're correct. The odds of there being at least one wolf in half the players are good.

 

[SportPonies]

Okay, so I want to provide some more thoughts on the Lupin Rule:

1. Having a rule cover the first 5 players is pretty arbitrary. 5 players in a 10 player game is much different than a 20 player game. A more robust rule would be a certain percentage
2. I'm going to compare posting order against wolfiness in the last few games. Santy offered that wolfiness was in the bottom 3rd, and I will hypothesize wolfiness is actual most likely in middle 3rd (middle of the pack, to better blend in)
3. Pasta - out of the 16 players, a wolf posted 8th, 10th, and 14th. This means 2 in the middle and 1 at the end
4. Noob - out of 22 players, a wolf posted 6, 7, 11, and 22. So 2 in the front, 1 in the middle, and 1 at the end. Notably, there were still 0 wolves in the first 5 posters

There are obviously many more games to look at, but this post is already long enough

edit - finished the post

I think the lupin rule is dumb and naturally holds true for a lot of games just by sheer numbers lol. I don’t think it really should be taken seriously

 

[potentialsheltervet]

it's life and death for me if i visit wrong and someone sees, but meh

How can you visit wrong?? I'm not understanding.

 

[SportPonies]

How can you not understand point 2?

I’m saying we shouldn’t talk about village PRs.

You would agree with that, no?

Oh, is that what it meant? I just genuinely didn’t understand wjat you were saying

 

[lucy.]

so if we discuss whomst you visit, and wolves kill that person, and you're tracked, how does that help us at all?

forces the kill to be on a specific person who you guys decide which has self explanatory benefits

 

[lucy.]

How can you visit wrong?? I'm not understanding.

if i visit the nightkill target

 

[potentialsheltervet]

forces the kill to be on a specific person who you guys decide which has self explanatory benefits

If I were a wolf I wouldn't kill that person just out of spite and also because you might not be who you say you are.

 

[lucy.]

If I were a wolf I wouldn't kill that person just out of spite and also because you might not be who you say you are.

exactly????

 

[potentialsheltervet]

I have to be honest, at this point it feels like you claimed in an effort to get out ahead of potential tracking or watching because you're gonna go chop chop someone.

 

[potentialsheltervet]

exactly????

Yes, so we aren't picking the NK target at all...?

 

[lucy.]

I have to be honest, at this point it feels like you claimed in an effort to get out ahead of potential tracking or watching because you're gonna go chop chop someone.

now you understand why i could never claim this role after d1 and why i claimed it instantly, it's basically anti town as far as PR's go

 

[lucy.]

Yes, so we aren't picking the NK target at all...?

but then i visit someone else who isn't the nk which benefits me

 

[Clem J]

Clem pls. Tourists are mafia now? smh. How will Disney ever recover?

Yeah I thought about it for like 5 seconds and realized jts probably town

 

[Zenge142]

I have to be honest, at this point it feels like you claimed in an effort to get out ahead of potential tracking or watching because you're gonna go chop chop someone.

 

[genny]

exactly????

so it doesn't clear you either if there's more than one wolf in the game

 

[Zenge142]

Yeah I thought about it for like 5 seconds and realized jts probably town

Okay but think about it for 25 seconds and get back to me

 

[potentialsheltervet]

I'm just going to bow out of this conversation because I'm not understanding so eh.

 

[lucy.]

so it doesn't clear you either if there's more than one wolf in the game

this role gets me thrown into the stratosphere wrt the chances i'm chopped, i don't ask to be cleared and i shouldn't be considering the role. getting myself not chopped because of my role is the sole purpose for claiming, i'm auto poe for now but that's fine

 

[potentialsheltervet]

@mightyrunner7 Do you have thoughts about the game unrelated to the Lupin rule?

 

[Zenge142]

this role gets me thrown into the stratosphere wrt the chances i'm chopped, i don't ask to be cleared and i shouldn't be considering the role. getting myself not chopped because of my role is the sole purpose for claiming, i'm auto poe for now but that's fine

I actually do understand the logic of Lucy’s claim.

It seems straightforward.

Claiming after you got watched or tracked would see more obvious as a cover for your crimes.

Claiming before N1 and then presumably being the one who does the kills is kind of an insane strategy.

 

[potentialsheltervet]

Claiming before N1 and then presumably being the one who does the kills is kind of an insane strategy

Not to me but probably because it's something I would do 🤣

 

[Zenge142]

I have to be honest, at this point it feels like you claimed in an effort to get out ahead of potential tracking or watching because you're gonna go chop chop someone.

Okay but does it, PSV?

Does it?

Because that feels like an easy point to jump on and push illegitimate sus.

It feels criminal.

@potentialsheltervet

 

[lucy.]

zenge town

 

[mightyrunner7]

I'm also inclined to believe Lucy's reveal. It would have been quite ridiculous to make such a bold claim as a wolf and get so much attention. The only benefit is that it could maybe cause a seerer to hesitate on an accusation

Lucy can't be cleared because of it, but its a relatively harmless role to announce because it also should not be a priority for the wolves to chase down. Frankly, if the wolves eat a tourist, it would protect some potentially more valuable villagers

 

[genny]

So what if there are no vanillagers, only compulsive tourists, and there's a reflexive serial killer?

 

[lucy.]

zenge/genny/clem town so far

 

[Zenge142]

zenge town

If I wasn’t village reading you I’d be haggling over the utility bills for your pockets.

 

[potentialsheltervet]

Okay but does it, PSV?

Does it?

Because that feels like an easy point to jump on and push illegitimate sus.

It feels criminal.

@potentialsheltervet

What's criminal is how many times you've used the same pun.

 

[Zenge142]

there's a reflexive serial killer?

Reflexive?

 

[Zenge142]

What's criminal is how many times you've used the same pun.

Yeah but you should have seen it in gGoats when I was legitimately trying to be sneaky and soft that I was a jailer. I was not being sneaky. smh

 

[Zenge142]

What's criminal is how many times you've used the same pun.

You gotta italicize it or it doesn’t count.

 

[genny]

Reflexive?

idk if it's a thing.

 

[mightyrunner7]

@mightyrunner7 Do you have thoughts about the game unrelated to the Lupin rule?

Fair, but I'll just say I started that rabbit hole before Lucy's role reveal, and threadstate was pretty quiet. I had also made a promise to Santy to conduct some investigation on previous games

 

[potentialsheltervet]

So what if there are no vanillagers, only compulsive tourists, and there's a reflexive serial killer?

I feel like a reflexive serial killer is just a multi-nighr PGO, no?

 

[Zenge142]

idk if it's a thing.

Just what did you mean by reflexive?