That's ridiculously flawed. Only if you have been in past your initial ADSO and get a multi-year bonus can you hit 200-220k. If you are simply doing your initial ADSO you peak out less than $140k!
No. During your ADSO, you're "earning" the med school tuition, book allowance, and stipend (AD O1 paycheck if USUHS) that the government paid you years earlier, plus interest. The correct comparison to make when looking at military physician pay vs civilian physician pay is post-ADSO, with a 4-year MSP contract for the specialty.
For anesthesiology, that'll usually be around $250K at the ADSO+1day mark since at that time they're typically O4s with 8-10 years of creditable service, give or take. O5-O6 types closer to the 20 mark will be around $275K. For perspective MGMA tells us that 25th %ile for regions 9 and 10 (CA OR WA AZ NV ID) are around $270-280K. Military anesthesiologist pay is low but it's not outrageously low, especially when you look at the # of hours worked. (They ought to triple it when deployed but that's another discussion.)
Then, figure the average .mil pension has a cash value around $1.5 - 2 million (based off what a single premium immediate annuity would cost if you walked into Vanguard with your checkbook looking to duplicate the pension payout), and divide that $1.5 - 2 million by the number of years from end of ADSO to retirement eligibility (objectively, this is really the vesting period that counts, since you get zero if you leave early), and depending on the individual's details he's effectively getting another $150 - 250K of pretax cash put into a retirement account during the I-coulda-gotten-out years. Never mind the fact that this kind of tax sheltered saving just isn't an option for civilians.
You can't look at the paycheck a military anesthesiologist gets during the "payback" period in a vacuum. It's called "payback" for a reason. HPSP/USUHS/HSCP aren't "scholarships" ... they're loans, repaid with time.
All things considered, a 40-year-old military anesthesiologist who has finished the ADSO and decided to gut out another 8-10 years for the retirement cheese is effectively getting paid somewhere between $350-500K per year. Now we're looking at median MGMA pay, even outside regions 9 & 10 (west coast).
Could the .mil retirement package change? I'm sure it will. It's oddly generous, considering someone can enlist at 17, retire at 37, and start
immediately collecting a check for life. Congress won't retroactively alter the deal, Darth Vader style, but it'll change for new joins, soonish. Could .mil physician pay decrease? Sure it could. Lots of us have been waiting for the MSP figures to adjust downward since 2008ish. My magic 8 ball is broken.
But I still maintain the position that
if you're wondering what your pay will be like as a national-healthcare government-employed doctor at some point in the next 20 years, you could do worse than look at what military doctors (who are past their med school tuition repayment period) are getting paid right now, and call that a reasonable floor.
If you'd like to argue minutia of .mil pay compared to civilian pay, we probably ought to take it to the milmed forum, rather than totally derail this thread.