I forgot to mention this in that other thread @
knv2u , but at one of my interviews (Geisel), one of the people in admissions told us that, indeed, some schools do use algorithms like the one you're suggesting doesn't exist to calculate likelihood of success in medical school.

(Not at Geisel, though). This surprises me, honestly. I'm surprised it's not more of a rule of thumb about which schools are grade deflating and, primarily, basing things on MCAT differences.
Also, I was wondering what you make of situations in which the opposite of expectation occurs (Expected = a low-ish GPA but high MCAT at a prestigious school, and Unexpected = a high GPA but low MCAT at this same grade-deflating school.) For example, I know someone at Hopkins who pulled some ridiculous GPA (3.9+) but then couldn't get 29+ on the MCAT. I am forced to believe that this situation is much less likely than a student who gets a 3.6 at Hopkins and a 35, but I still find it disturbing when considering the model you've proposed for judging GPA relative to the talent pool (as judged by SAT scores) at one's undergraduate institution. I think I mentioned this example in the other thread, as well, but it just doesn't make sense to me how someone could murder it like that a grade-deflating institution like Hopkins [this suggests that the person is a good standardized test taker (i.e., they must have performed well on the SAT)] taking all pre-requisites (Orgo, Physics, Bio, etc.) and then forgetting how to study for the MCAT.
More generally, I am interested to see if you think that examples like this one have forced (some or many) medical school admissions committees into positions that - more or less - the prestige and/or grade-deflating reputation of undergraduate school is irrelevant and that a 3.7 at random state school is the same as a 3.7 at Hopkins/Chicago/Princeton.
Also, do you think that the MCAT is the gold standard? An example: Candidate A has 3.7 and 36 from Penn State. Candidate B has 3.7 and 34 from University of Chicago. Who is the better candidate?
As always, thanks for your thoughts.