How long should the lock down last?

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~110,000 have died so far of COVID-19, and in the Carolinas cases are still peaking daily. I see it at least 2-3 times a shift. There is no conspiracy by "them" and the "media" (Which now is somehow a single entity? Who is this person? Or is it a collection of NWO leftists who just want to make sure that you fail?) to keep the country closed until November. It is a much bigger and complex issue than a simple completely open economy or complete lock-down.

Just amazing that you both see mass protests and use it as way to spike the football in your own victory. Enjoy it.

It was supposed to be simple but some state policy makers and their supporters didn’t make it so. Does anyone remember when lockdowns were about flattening the curve...and then when that happened goalposts were moved to “let’s keep it going and just avoid all deaths”, and now it’s become mass gathering protests are actually ok and don’t spread covid (but protests about lockdowns are bad)?

cases in states already opened or opening are bound to increase as testing is increasingly widespread and people interact more.But wasn’t the whole point of lockdowns to avoid overwhelming the health system... not to avoid all possible cases of covid...?
 
Another Lancet study retracted:

1591467515594.jpeg
 
I work in a large city and was seeing only COVID for 6 weeks straight. Over the past two weeks, we have seen a drastic decrease in COVID presenting to the ED. I have not seen a "COVID X-Ray" in weeks. I have also not seen a really sick COVID for about the same time. COVID is still here. Why are does the prevalence of severity of presentations seem to be decreasing?
In response to previous posts about increasing COVID cases in various parts of the country after opening, the gross numbers are increasing in most part secondary to increased to testing. The percent positives is not increasing which would argue against a surge in cases after opening. National mortality also appears to be decreasing...
 
Why are does the prevalence of severity of presentations seem to be decreasing?
The best explanation I've heard is that it is an example of microevolution in the virus. A virus that kills too many of it's hosts can't spread as much and therefore can't create as many copies of it's DNA/RNA. A virus with a mutation that kills fewer hosts has a genetic advantage in that more hosts equal more virus equals more copies of its genome replicated and spread. Therefore a less lethal virus becomes more numerous and a more lethal one can't keep up since it's killing that which it needs to replicate itself. Having had the milder virus which is becoming more prevalent, makes you partially or totally immune to the more lethal one, which further decreases its prevalence.
 
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In response to previous posts about increasing COVID cases in various parts of the country after opening, the gross numbers are increasing in most part secondary to increased to testing. The percent positives is not increasing which would argue against a surge in cases after opening. National mortality also appears to be decreasing...
I agree and this is what appears to be happening in my state. We were one of the last to shutdown and one of the first to reopen. Testing initially was scarce, now there are free drive-through testing sites everywhere you turn. Of course the numbers are going to show a spike. Also, if you see cases spike higher than deaths, you know there isn’t likely more people sick, you're just diagnosing a higher percentage of those that are out there, which otherwise would have gone undiagnosed.
 
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Yeah, I don't know were they got that information, but it’s in several news sources. Could it be fake news? I guess it's possible. But, if someone with that past decided to get out of the business and work in something mainstream like medical research, I'm sure they wouldn't put it out of the front porch. More likely they'd do their best to scrub it from the internet as much as possible, or at a minimum keep it off the medical company website.

If you’d like, I’ll edit my post to read “unsuccessful adult content worker.” I’m not sure that’ll get his/her/ze/she/them/their Lancet article un-retracted, though.

You know what's crazy is the Lancet, with supposedly thorough and stringent peer review processes, lets a fake article through to publication (let me be clear here, current known data shows hydroxychloroquine doesn't work but that doesn't give a free pass to fake studies), while Amazon can simply ban a book that criticizes COVID shutdowns that is filled with real evidence/facts and not made up numbers.

 
You discovered that more testing finds more disease. Congrats.

Congrats to you! You have discovered how to selectively interpret data and ignore literature, news, data that doesn't fit your personal narrative. For instance, both the total number of cases and percentage of positive tests in SC & NC is up-trending.



I see a lot of things two to three times per shift. Maybe that means you be in quarantine for 3 more months.

Like back pain or fibromyalgia? Or are you actually working shifts in an ED now? I never said anything in my posts about continuing the shut down. However, I also don't believe that media and state governments have purposefully made up the dangers of COVID-19...it has killed 100K+ Americans in 4 months.
 
Isn't it interesting how most were calling us right-wing cranks for questioning the lockdown motives? I think you and I shall continue to be proven more and more right about everything with this pandemic as time goes on.
Yeah. I essentially stopped posting in this forum after people thought I was wearing a "tin foil hat" for suggesting there were dark political motives behind this...
 
Isn't it interesting how most were calling us right-wing cranks for questioning the lockdown motives? I think you and I shall continue to be proven more and more right about everything with this pandemic as time goes on.

I've been supporting both anti-lockdown protests and George Floyd protests so i don't know how the social media activists and news media would view me.
 
I can’t put words in their mouths, but my response would be this:

“We should always evaluate the risks and benefits of efforts to control the virus. In this moment the public health risks of people continuing to lose their livelihoods and spiraling deeper into poverty and despair greatly exceed the harms of the virus.“

To which I’d wager Ms. Nuzzo would respond: MURDERER! How literally dare you!! If the lockdown saves just one life!!
Jennifer Nuzzo is promoting mass-gathering protests which will spread Coronavirus which disproportionally kills African American males.
 
Yeah. I essentially stopped posting in this forum after people thought I was wearing a "tin foil hat" for suggesting there were dark political motives behind this...
Keep posting. When that incoming starts it’s because you’re right over the target.
 
You know what's crazy is the Lancet, with supposedly thorough and stringent peer review processes, lets a fake article through to publication (let me be clear here, current known data shows hydroxychloroquine doesn't work but that doesn't give a free pass to fake studies), while Amazon can simply ban a book that criticizes COVID shutdowns that is filled with real evidence/facts and not made up numbers.

Lol, I know. And his book is literally full of nothing but data from the same government sources they’ve been saying are unquestionable.
 
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You hit the nail on the head. I was a huge Reddit lover back in the day but I am noticing the social platforms downvote and hide anything that doesn't support popular movements. If you have a view that is different you are in bed with Trump and want to watch migrants from Africa burn as you hunt endangered Rhinos.

I hate the politicization of all of this. So annoying.
This is perhaps off topic, but I agree with this and wanted to share my experience. I had an honestly heartbreaking experience on Reddit today. I made some comment about a product that was made to make fun of Trump (I said something like "I support the president, but it's funny they made it orange because he literally IS orange." ) It was just a lighthearted comment and I was not even trying to ignite political discussion. The person called me a racist bigot, then looked through my comment history to find other jabs. They saw that I am newly pregnant and told me that they "weep" for my unborn child having to have a mother like me. They said "it's not too late for a miscarriage or uterine rupture; you are everything that is wrong with America, Karen." The person also told me that they feel sorry for any patients who are people of color who have to be subjected to my substandard care. Finally, they accused me of being someone who thinks COVID is a hoax (I don't; I just posted something about how I wasn't sure the lockdowns were worth all this). This was all unprompted; my replies were not inflammatory; I just asked them to stop. The sad thing is, this isn't the first time I have encountered this type of sick behavior on Reddit. These people are crazed leftists who go NUTS if anyone says anything that is opposite of what they think. It's ironic this person was preaching at me about being more tolerant and literally told me she hopes I have a uterine rupture just because I support the president and hope he does a good job. It is weird how people perceive hate that is not there and then use HATE to fight back. WHAT? It also shocked me how much the comments hurt me. Or maybe it's just the pregnancy hormones...
 
This is perhaps off topic, but I agree with this and wanted to share my experience. I had an honestly heartbreaking experience on Reddit today. I made some comment about a product that was made to make fun of Trump (I said something like "I support the president, but it's funny they made it orange because he literally IS orange." ) It was just a lighthearted comment and I was not even trying to ignite political discussion. The person called me a racist bigot, then looked through my comment history to find other jabs. They saw that I am newly pregnant and told me that they "weep" for my unborn child having to have a mother like me. They said "it's not too late for a miscarriage or uterine rupture; you are everything that is wrong with America, Karen." The person also told me that they feel sorry for any patients who are people of color who have to be subjected to my substandard care. Finally, they accused me of being someone who thinks COVID is a hoax (I don't; I just posted something about how I wasn't sure the lockdowns were worth all this). This was all unprompted; my replies were not inflammatory; I just asked them to stop. The sad thing is, this isn't the first time I have encountered this type of sick behavior on Reddit. These people are crazed leftists who go NUTS if anyone says anything that is opposite of what they think. It's ironic this person was preaching at me about being more tolerant and literally told me she hopes I have a uterine rupture just because I support the president and hope he does a good job. It is weird how people perceive hate that is not there and then use HATE to fight back. WHAT? It also shocked me how much the comments hurt me. Or maybe it's just the pregnancy hormones...

Its Reddit; the website where 15 year olds go to call either other names.
 
Yes, I learned this...a little too late sadly.

People like to think Reddit is toxic because of Trump and right-wing friendly sections when in reality, it's nothing but a left-wing circlejerk and toxic dumpster fire. It's hard to have any conversation of any type when people there like to assail with downvotes and flaming away. It's a bad place overall sadly.
 
This is perhaps off topic, but I agree with this and wanted to share my experience. I had an honestly heartbreaking experience on Reddit today. I made some comment about a product that was made to make fun of Trump (I said something like "I support the president, but it's funny they made it orange because he literally IS orange." ) It was just a lighthearted comment and I was not even trying to ignite political discussion. The person called me a racist bigot, then looked through my comment history to find other jabs. They saw that I am newly pregnant and told me that they "weep" for my unborn child having to have a mother like me. They said "it's not too late for a miscarriage or uterine rupture; you are everything that is wrong with America, Karen." The person also told me that they feel sorry for any patients who are people of color who have to be subjected to my substandard care. Finally, they accused me of being someone who thinks COVID is a hoax (I don't; I just posted something about how I wasn't sure the lockdowns were worth all this). This was all unprompted; my replies were not inflammatory; I just asked them to stop. The sad thing is, this isn't the first time I have encountered this type of sick behavior on Reddit. These people are crazed leftists who go NUTS if anyone says anything that is opposite of what they think. It's ironic this person was preaching at me about being more tolerant and literally told me she hopes I have a uterine rupture just because I support the president and hope he does a good job. It is weird how people perceive hate that is not there and then use HATE to fight back. WHAT? It also shocked me how much the comments hurt me. Or maybe it's just the pregnancy hormones...
You're now the member of a club, of people who wandered unprepared into a place where pimple-faced 14-year-old male anarchist-hackers go to expel excess testosterone between all-night shooter video-game marathons and when there are no, "Eliminate Police!" rallies to go to. Our belief system is as follows: "Reddit is no place for an outnumbered, mature adult not looking for a viscous fight with scrappy, deoderantpenic, 120 lb teenagers."
 
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Not to sound all get off my lawn-y, but when I was in college and Facebook was college student only, I remember I requested they add my university. They did. I joined. There for years. Was on MySpace prior. Hah.

MySpace? Deleted. Facebook? Deactivated a couple times, then deleted. I think I saved both profiles for ****s and giggles. Little snapshot of the Veil with more acne and angst, I guess.

Reddit? Guilty pleasure reading for a little while. Now it, like most social media, is just annoying. Occasionally useful for searching for specific answers to things. Doximity is as close as it gets to tolerable for me.

I know some people don't like the term "echo chamber" -- but a lot of social media is, in essence, little walled off sections of echo chambers with lots of non-echo-chamber space for those brave enough to consider something that doesn't fit into their mold.

I'm happier when I stay away from it all.
 

And:


“It still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual. It’s very rare.”

Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of WHO’s emerging diseases and zoonosis unit

 
This is perhaps off topic, but I agree with this and wanted to share my experience. I had an honestly heartbreaking experience on Reddit today. I made some comment about a product that was made to make fun of Trump (I said something like "I support the president, but it's funny they made it orange because he literally IS orange." ) It was just a lighthearted comment and I was not even trying to ignite political discussion. The person called me a racist bigot, then looked through my comment history to find other jabs. They saw that I am newly pregnant and told me that they "weep" for my unborn child having to have a mother like me. They said "it's not too late for a miscarriage or uterine rupture; you are everything that is wrong with America, Karen." The person also told me that they feel sorry for any patients who are people of color who have to be subjected to my substandard care. Finally, they accused me of being someone who thinks COVID is a hoax (I don't; I just posted something about how I wasn't sure the lockdowns were worth all this). This was all unprompted; my replies were not inflammatory; I just asked them to stop. The sad thing is, this isn't the first time I have encountered this type of sick behavior on Reddit. These people are crazed leftists who go NUTS if anyone says anything that is opposite of what they think. It's ironic this person was preaching at me about being more tolerant and literally told me she hopes I have a uterine rupture just because I support the president and hope he does a good job. It is weird how people perceive hate that is not there and then use HATE to fight back. WHAT? It also shocked me how much the comments hurt me. Or maybe it's just the pregnancy hormones...

I am sorry to hear about your experience. They take these things to the extreme. If you were a protester who was anti-lockdown they hoped for your death. There were posts that actually praised the death of some people who didn't believe in Covid. It's sad because now protesting is all the rage and spreading Covid is not a concern. There are alot of users from other countries on there who have made it a hate America bandwagon platform. I have been called a doctor who doesn't take this seriously. They would not hear reason at all or actually look at the studies or trends.

I hate to sound like a conspiracy theorist but majority stake from China with many questionable moderators makes me wonder about it becoming an anti-America propaganda machine. I voted for Hillary last election. I would have voted for Bernie this one. But there is no way in hell I will vote for Biden just to give you an idea of the type of voter I am.
 
I voted for Hillary last election. I would have voted for Bernie this one. But there is no way in hell I will vote for Biden just to give you an idea of the type of voter I am.
I might be off a bit, but, as I recall, Hillary and Biden are closer than Bernie was to Hillary. Or, stated another way, from left to center, it was Bernie ------- Hillary --- Joe. Or, maybe it's the other way around.

So, as I think I have clearly demonstrated, I don't get what type of voter you are. Socialist? Communist? (Not saying that - just guessing)
 
And:


“It still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual. It’s very rare.”

Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of WHO’s emerging diseases and zoonosis unit


Wasn't this the foundation of the whole mask movement? I remember people saying wearing a mask is not to prevent getting it but to prevent spreading it unknowingly.
 
I might be off a bit, but, as I recall, Hillary and Biden are closer than Bernie was to Hillary. Or, stated another way, from left to center, it was Bernie ------- Hillary --- Joe. Or, maybe it's the other way around.

So, as I think I have clearly demonstrated, I don't get what type of voter you are. Socialist? Communist? (Not saying that - just guessing)
At the time when Trump was going against Hillary I thought he was a jerk and just didn't like him. Thought Hillary might do a better job and picked her. After the whole tweet by her saying that America is number one (citing covid deaths) I realize she wasn't okay either.

In regards to what type of voter I am...It's like the protests...do I think it's okay to protest, yes. Is it okay to riot, no. But I get labeled a right winger for saying that. Now going tying that into what type of voter I am.

Do I think medicine is going to hell and our salaries are going to go down the toilet because of an over-saturation of residencies...yes. The question is do I want private insurance, CMGs, hospital CEOs to drive it down or do I want socialized medicine where my salary will go down but so will insurance companies.

I know the argument is very complex and I am just doing it from a goofy 10,000 foot level. I think we are all screwed in medicine and slowly our independence has been chipped away. Now the question is who do I want as my pimp?
 
At the time when Trump was going against Hillary I thought he was a jerk and just didn't like him. Thought Hillary might do a better job and picked her. After the whole tweet by her saying that America is number one (citing covid deaths) I realize she wasn't okay either.

In regards to what type of voter I am...It's like the protests...do I think it's okay to protest, yes. Is it okay to riot, no. But I get labeled a right winger for saying that. Now going tying that into what type of voter I am.

Do I think medicine is going to hell and our salaries are going to go down the toilet because of an over-saturation of residencies...yes. The question is do I want private insurance, CMGs, hospital CEOs to drive it down or do I want socialized medicine where my salary will go down but so will insurance companies.

I know the argument is very complex and I am just doing it from a goofy 10,000 foot level. I think we are all screwed in medicine and slowly our independence has been chipped away. Now the question is who do I want as my pimp?

I can certainly see where you're coming from. Can't tell you how many times i've wondered, mostly out of spite, that if we're gonna go down, might as well take the insurance companies down with us via universal healthcare.
 
I can certainly see where you're coming from. Can't tell you how many times i've wondered, mostly out of spite, that if we're gonna go down, might as well take the insurance companies down with us via universal healthcare.

I just have become very frustrated with medicine and how our role has been marginalized over the years. I see how we can't accept a pen from a pharma rep but Davita's CEO can have a freaking horse at a pep rally. If I work for a hospital my salary is tied to the percentile they define fits the criteria so the government doesn't come after them for overpaying us. All this while the UHC CEO makes 18.9 million. We can't own hospitals anymore. Our chance to be independent with SDGs keeps getting smaller and smaller. We can't even form a unified front on most stuff and will sell each other out for money (expert witnesses to the scores of new residency programs that are finding faculty).

Our salaries will go down; the question is how many people will take a cut of what we are bringing in and define what we can be paid for what we do.

Sorry I am rambling.
 
I'd like to see their data they referrenced in the article. But, they listed no link, no accessible source. When I googled this and checked the AZ heath-department website (next post) you get a different picture.

New AZ COVID cases up:

1591793549155.png




New AZ COVID deaths, down:

1591793682093.png


Source


Are they simply finding more mild and non-fatal cases with increased testing, but having less people die of it. If so, isn't that the goal?
 
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A quick look at the AZ health dept dashboard shows declining deaths & hospitalizations, plenty of hospital beds and tons of excess ventilators.

1591794304374.png


1591794384537.png


1591794442636.png


1591794475577.png
 
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In my state, they put a bunch of "Free drive-through COVID testing" sites all over and now are finding tons more asymptomatic and mild COVID-19 cases. But deaths are not increasing, in fact, they're decreasing from a peak which happened 6 weeks ago and despite reopening a month ago. More COVID-colds, less people dying. Some people may choose to panic over that.

1591794823693.png


1591794892105.png
 
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Great data. Too bad they'll just be pushing the country to close again.
 
Great data. Too bad they'll just be pushing the country to close again.
They will try, based on hyperbolic stories of local hotspots that are catching up to where the rest of the country was a month ago. But I think there's very little appetite for another draconian lockdown, at this point, regardless of what the numbers will show.
 
In my state, they put a bunch of "Free drive-through COVID testing" sites all over and now are finding tons more asymptomatic and mild COVID-19 cases but deaths are not increasing, in fact, they're decreasing from a peak which happened 6 weeks ago and despite reopening a month ago. Certain people are choosing to panic over that.

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Lots of false positives in my area from this. My financial guy tested positive, then got tested again 2 days later - negative.

Then there's this: https://www.thestate.com/sports/col...ina/usc-mens-basketball/article243201941.html
 
It could be an Onion article article, "Guy Finds Out He Had A Cold, Freaks Out"
I mean, he is over 50 so I'd be a bit more worried for him.

Unrelated, I was going through my state's health department website yesterday:

15,000 confirmed cases, 2000 in nursing homes/assisted living. 13%

568 deaths, 260 in nursing homes/assisted living. 46%
 
I mean, he is over 50 so I'd be a bit more worried for him.
I get how he freaked out initially, based on his age and all. I get that. But at this point, he knows he got Corona, had zero symptoms, he's now cured, carrying antibodies and none of his family got sick. It doesn't get any more fortunate or reassuring than that, if you ask me.

But it's a good illustration how one group can read that article and panic, thinking, "OMG someone I know of got corona and didn't even know it! THAT COULD BE ME OMG OMG!"

And another person reads the same article and thinks, "A guy I've heard of got Corona and it was so mild he didn't know he had it, didn't give it to any of the people he shared a house with and now doesn't have to ever worry about getting it again. I'm reassured."
 
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I get how he freaked out initially, based on his age and all. I get that. But at this point, he knows he got Corona, had zero symptoms, he's now cured, carrying antibodies and none of his family got sick. It doesn't get any more fortunate or reassuring than that, if you ask me.

But it's a good illustration how one group can read that article and panic, thinking, "OMG someone I know of got corona and didn't even know it! THAT COULD BE ME OMG OMG!"

And another person reads the same article and thinks, "A guy I've heard of got Corona and it was so mild he didn't know he had it, didn't give it to any of the people he shared a house with and now doesn't have to ever worry about getting it again. I'm reassured."
I think it's much more likely that this was a false positive
 
They will see that the economy is improving faster than anticipated (much faster than I expected), so they will interpret the numbers as a "second spike" and either delay re-opening in Liberal bastions, or scream and shout for more lockdowns in the saner states. They will do this because they need every tool at their disposal to influence events in November.
 
They will see that the economy is improving faster than anticipated (much faster than I expected), so they will interpret the numbers as a "second spike" and either delay re-opening in Liberal bastions, or scream and shout for more lockdowns in the saner states. They will do this because they need every tool at their disposal to influence events in November.
I agree. However, it's going to be much, much tougher to get the necessary buy-in for second lock-downs to actually happen. Do you see much appetite for it, among actual people, as opposed to scheming politicians?
 
I agree. However, it's going to be much, much tougher to get the necessary buy-in for second lock-downs to actually happen. Do you see much appetite for it, among actual people, as opposed to scheming politicians?

There is zero appetite in my state for continuing any sort of lockdowns. The vast majority of people want to go back to work and are willing to assume any of the supposed risks of doing so. Our Governor re-opened our economy, not because he wanted to, but because the public pressure and ridicule became too much and he had no choice.
 
Problem though is that in many states, they are going to do what they want in spite of the will of the people. And because we live increasingly in a state of anarcho-tyranny, don’t think for a minute that your local PD won’t throw you in jail for refusing to comply with Lockdown The Sequel, while continuing to do nothing about the pasty children of the spoiled liberal professional class running around setting buildings on fire. If they lock us down again the law-abiding citizens will comply or be punished.
If you still have worries about any of this, at this point, you're doing this all wrong. You shouldn't be leaving home at this point, without your work ID, a pair of scrubs and a "#GeorgeFloyd" sign in your trunk at all times. If you present yourself as "essential services" and a "Anti-police" protester and still get arrested, then @ me.
 
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Problem though is that in many states, they are going to do what they want in spite of the will of the people. And because we live increasingly in a state of anarcho-tyranny, don’t think for a minute that your local PD won’t throw you in jail for refusing to comply with Lockdown The Sequel, while continuing to do nothing about the pasty children of the spoiled liberal professional class running around setting buildings on fire. If they lock us down again the law-abiding citizens will comply or be punished.

Yes. The protesters are basically anti-civilization at this point. There is no reason to take these people seriously. The actual statistics and facts completely discredit their fraudulent claims of widespread police brutality and systemic racism. The only ones who are going to suffer from "defunding police" are poor black/latino communities where there will be an increase in violent crime because of this.
 
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