How long should the lock down last?

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The "insults" to you aren't because of your post right there. When you don't inject holier-than-thou into your posts, it is clear. I clearly understood your factual part. But, it seems clear - I mean, I think you actually believe the you ARE "the Renaissance Man", and everyone else are just the unwashed masses, a horde of brutish, uneducated barbarians, and not worthy of your privilege being shared with all of these others that are beneath you. I don't think you mean it ironically or sarcastically (like @thegenius or "Professor" Roy Bittan of the E Street Band (they called him "Professor" because he was the only one that had finished high school)).

And, actually, calling me a "d-bag" is the foul here; I'm not going to report you (because I'm a grown up and it just doesn't matter), but, as I've posted in the past, "on SDN, you can be an idiot, but someone else can't call you an idiot for acting like one".

Oh, and, I don't back down from my belief that the COVID-19 was from the Chinese government. That's what I thought now many months ago, and, just a little after that, the US govt did address the same issue, saying it wasn't. Beliefs can change with evolution of events. Well, at least, mine can.
Don’t worry @Apollyon. It’s what you get here on SDN EM. If you post logic, CDC data or an RTC and you’re going to get lightweight adolescent insults from people only able to contribute recycled herd-think and no independent thought. Let them have at it. They can’t help themselves. It’s the only fun they get when out of the sight of their mommies.

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Are you proposing a very specific group with a known exposure to a disease not known to be in their arrival area is the same as telling the entire state they cannot go to work for 6months? Because I don’t find that comparable

I like the phrase: "Oranges and Cadillacs".
 
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2) Lockdowns do slow viral transmission, however they do not do so effectively enough to completely stop transmission. We cannot 'lockdown' forever (or until an vaccination program is available), due to the immense economic and psycho-social of such measures, thus rendering these measures at best a delaying tactic.

#2. It should take a grave emergency for governments to suspend civil liberties, and eliminate private property rights. A respiratory virus that is not harmful to the vast majority of the population does not constitute such an emergency. I realize a lot of our younger members don't understand the history of the US, or our unique culture. We pride ourselves on having stronger individual liberties and very strong property rights. These things largely don't exist in Canada, Europe, or other countries to the same extent. For our governors to do what they did was a huge imposition, and a violation of the long held social compact.

It's too bad this virus happened upon us in an election year. In a regular year I think our response would have been more measured, and less hysterical. An unfortunate part of our politics is that the party out of power will use ANY means necessary to get back into power. This is because thousands of cushy patronage jobs and billions of dollars are the spoils that go to the victorious party. Certainly it's enough incentive to lie, cheat, break the law and even kill for.

This virus has also revealed which of our governors are petty despots. The crazy Michigan governor is still going strong on this one....
 
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NY TIMES: STAGGERINGLY HIGH FALSE POSITIVE RATE FOR COVID-19 PCR

According the New York Times, hardly a repository of right wing conspiratorial thinking, reported within the past 24 hours that currently used COVID-19 PCR tests appear to have a staggeringly high false positive rate, possibly as high as 70-90%. Yep, you read that right. Due to setting the test sensitivity aggressively high, up to 70-90% of positives might actually be more accurately reported as negative.

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Are you proposing a very specific group with a known exposure to a disease not known to be in their arrival area is the same as telling the entire state they cannot go to work for 6months? Because I don’t find that comparable
I’m not sure how you compare Ebola, which has a fatality rate of 70+%, to SARS-COV-2 which is <1%.

Oh, I wasn't confusing the fatality rates of Ebola and sars-cov2. In fact, that is why I specifically asked if sb247 was making a generalization or just referring to sars-cov2. (see my post)

sb247, it is sometimes difficult to discern when you are expressing an absolute belief or just making a statement to described a specific situation but with crude and absolutist language.

This happens to be a case of the later, but given your well-known beliefs regarding "government", I think you can understand why it was not clear to me that you were speaking just about sars-cov2 and not expressing an absolutist or even general belief that "government shouldn't have the power to quarantine healthy people".

#2, and govt shouldn’t have the power to quarantine healthy people

HH
 
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Oh, I wasn't confusing the fatality rates of Ebola and sars-cov2. In fact, that is why I specifically asked if sb247 was making a generalization or just referring to sars-cov2. (see my post)

sb247, it is sometimes difficult to discern when you are expressing an absolute belief or just making a statement to described a specific situation but with crude and absolutist language.

This happens to be a case of the later, but given your well-known beliefs regarding "government", I think you can understand why it was not clear to me that you were speaking just about sars-cov2 and not expressing an absolutist or even general belief that "government shouldn't have the power to quarantine healthy people".



HH
Sorry HH, Internet sucks at conveying tone. I was referencing this current situation. You are correct however that my “bar” for when govt can intervene is a few standard deviations out of norm which could make me hard to predict, sorry for the misunderstanding
 
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NY TIMES: STAGGERINGLY HIGH FALSE POSITIVE RATE FOR COVID-19 PCR

According the New York Times, hardly a repository of right wing conspiratorial thinking, reported within the past 24 hours that currently used COVID-19 PCR tests appear to have a staggeringly high false positive rate, possibly as high as 70-90%. Yep, you read that right. Due to setting the test sensitivity aggressively high, up to 70-90% of positives might actually be more accurately reported as negative.

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Interesting how your representation of the article (in Bold) is not exactly the way I interpreted the article, which I had read prior to your post.

The crux of this NYT article is that our current PCR testing is too sensitive and picks up little fragments of viral nucleic material when the virus itself is not causing an infection. This all goes back to the notion of "can you have COVID-19 without symptoms" and the answer to that question is NO. you cannot have a disease if you do not have any symptoms of the disease. Then the next question to arise from this is "can you spread a virus from one person to another if you do not have symptoms of that virus" and I have contended for months on this forum that it seems unlikely one can have active viral replication and shedding without having symptoms. However there are people smarter than me in this realm of knowledge who suggest that we can.

Second, there are folks quoted in the NYTimes article that suggest we should actually be testing more with rapid tests and not less, even though there are limitations of the PCR testing. They need to be rapidly run so we can tell people right away the results of their test.

The correct thing to do is to just isolate yourself if you are sick, but even that is hard to determine if one is sick. What if you are blowing your nose 4 times a day? And you normally blow your nose on average one time a day? Maybe you have coronavirus. Maybe you have one of 5000 other things that can cause you to blow your nose.

This whole thing about # PCR cycles is kind of silly....because if you have some symptoms of COVID-19 and you get a PCR test that is positive at high cycles and negative at low cycles....then what are we doing? You pick a common or sensible goalpost and STICK WITH IT. Pick 35 cycles. Pick 40 cycles. Pick 3 well oiled bicycles.
 
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The crux of this NYT article is that our current PCR testing is too sensitive and picks up little fragments of viral nucleic material when the virus itself is not causing an infection. This all goes back to the notion of "can you have COVID-19 without symptoms" and the answer to that question is NO. you cannot have a disease if you do not have any symptoms of the disease. Then the next question to arise from this is "can you spread a virus from one person to another if you do not have symptoms of that virus" and I have contended for months on this forum that it seems unlikely one can have active viral replication and shedding without having symptoms. However there are people smarter than me in this realm of knowledge who suggest that we can.

This. The justification for quarantining healthy people, lockdowns, and universal masking has been the mythical "asymptomatic spread" from this virus.
 
This whole thing about # PCR cycles is kind of silly....because if you have some symptoms of COVID-19 and you get a PCR test that is positive at high cycles and negative at low cycles....then what are we doing? You pick a common or sensible goalpost and STICK WITH IT. Pick 35 cycles. Pick 40 cycles. Pick 3 well oiled bicycles.
If "PCR cycles" and false positives mean my kids get robbed out of quality school and friendships, I don't think talking about them is silly. If you're in college on a scholarship and your sport is shut down for a year, I don't think PCR cycles are silly. If you're a bar, restaurant or gym owner and you lose your life's work and can't feed your kids due to false test results from PCR cycles, I don't think that's silly. Destroying careers, lives, industries, a way of life over a test made so overly sensitive it picks of 50 dead virons in the nose of everyone that's ever been around one person with COVID isn't silly, it's just plain wrong.
 
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Isn't it clearly obvious that COVID-19 has killed, more or less, 180K Americans YTD?

So why argue that upwards to 90% of the people we think have COVID-19 don't have it? You actually think that 9/10 people we think have COVID has something else? Or nothing?

You know what is incontrovertible to most sensible human beings is the wave of sickness that is spreading throughout the world. And most of the world is trying very hard to identify those sick people. That's why interpretation of articles like what's posted in the NYTimes just muddies the effort to help people either not get sick or help them if they are sick.
 
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That's why interpretation of articles like what's posted in the NYTimes just muddies the effort to help people either not get sick or help them if they are sick.
Before I answer your question, I have to ask, what's your definition of "sick"? Because it sounds like the definition has changed for some people. Is a "sick" person someone who feels well but has a false positive test results, which according to NY Times is 70-90% of the people who's tested positive for COVID-19 by PCR?
 
Doubt the millenials will have any clue what movie you are referring to. They don't watch media which was released prior to their existence.

But maybe they will.... did you see the new "Bill and Ted" movie? its on-demand.
I haven't seen it yet. DON'T ruin it for me.
But... I am looking most excellently towards seeing it.
 
"Sir. Your EKG, troponin and heart cath are normal. You don't have clinically significant heart disease. But we've change the cutoff for 'abnormal' so we can help more people with heart disease get treatment and now your tests are listed as 'positive.' When would you like to do your heart bypass surgery, Sir?"
 
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But maybe they will.... did you see the new "Bill and Ted" movie? its on-demand.
I haven't seen it yet. DON'T ruin it for me.
But... I am looking most excellently towards seeing it.
I haven't seen the movie but I've seen the new Weezer video from it and I must say it's "most e x c e l l e n t , dude!"
 
"Sir. Your EKG, troponin and heart cath are normal. You don't have clinically significant heart disease. But we've change the cutoff for 'abnormal' so we can help more people with heart disease get treatment and now your tests are listed as 'positive.' When would you like to do your heart bypass surgery, Sir?"

The irony will be lost on the crusaders here.
 
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Isn't it clearly obvious that COVID-19 has killed, more or less, 180K Americans YTD?

So why argue that upwards to 90% of the people we think have COVID-19 don't have it? You actually think that 9/10 people we think have COVID has something else? Or nothing?

You know what is incontrovertible to most sensible human beings is the wave of sickness that is spreading throughout the world. And most of the world is trying very hard to identify those sick people. That's why interpretation of articles like what's posted in the NYTimes just muddies the effort to help people either not get sick or help them if they are sick.
Even if every covid credited death was really that, it’s 3x a bad flu. If we’re over calling that by 50-90% that’s a big deal.
 
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Even if every covid credited death was really that, it’s 3x a bad flu. If we’re over calling that by 50-90% that’s a big deal.

The problem is we will never really know. Without going back and examining 180K patient charts, it will be difficult to ascertain if they died FROM Covid or WITH COVID. The point is moot now, as we are past the worst of the outbreak (hopefully) and it's too late to change any of the questionable public policy decisions based on new data.
 
Even if every covid credited death was really that, it’s 3x a bad flu. If we’re over calling that by 50-90% that’s a big deal.
Yep. You touch a door knob covered with 3-day-old dead virons, touch your nose, then on the way home crash your motorcycle and die. In the morgue they swab your nose with an outrageously over-sensitive PCR and voila! A COVID + death! Call the news! Make it viral on twitter! Tell the hospital CEO we have another one for more reimbursement. Call the cavalry. Close the town. Run to the hills. A plague is coming!

It's all fine, @sb247. What are you worried about? It's totally fine.
 
The problem is we will never really know. Without going back and examining 180K patient charts, it will be difficult to ascertain if they died FROM Covid or WITH COVID. The point is moot now, as we are past the worst of the outbreak (hopefully) and it's too late to change any of the questionable public policy decisions based on new data.
That's the key here and its tricky.

You have a patient with known CHF. Gets tested, COVID positive. Comes in 3 days later short of breath, significant fluid overload. Dies. Cause of death is heart failure. Did COVID set off this CHF exacerbation? I don't think its unreasonable to say probably, but we'll never be 100% sure.

I'm sure there have been crazy things like the post directly above this one, but I suspect that's in the significant minority.
 
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Isn't it clearly obvious that COVID-19 has killed, more or less, 180K Americans YTD?
More? Less? Maybe. I don't know what that number is anymore. I don't think anyone does or ever will. If we're counting people that died of anything and everything but are marked + death with COVID-19 because they had no infection but 32 dead COVID viron in their nose by an overly sensitive PCR (according to the NY Times) then we'll never know what the real number is.
 
That's the key here and its tricky.

You have a patient with known CHF. Gets tested, COVID positive. Comes in 3 days later short of breath, significant fluid overload. Dies. Cause of death is heart failure. Did COVID set off this CHF exacerbation? I don't think its unreasonable to say probably, but we'll never be 100% sure.

I'm sure there have been crazy things like the post directly above this one, but I suspect that's in the significant minority.

CDC:


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I don't think we can assume all 94% of the others had nothing to do with COVID-19 but I'll bet a good portion did, and another good portion had only a small contribution by COVID, particularly the nursing home patients (about 40% of COVID deaths) who are mostly DNR who's disease if left to run it's course, but would otherwise be survivable by >99% of otherwise even remotely healthy people.
 
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"Sir. Your EKG, troponin and heart cath are normal. You don't have clinically significant heart disease. But we've change the cutoff for 'abnormal' so we can help more people with heart disease get treatment and now your tests are listed as 'positive.' When would you like to do your heart bypass surgery, Sir?"

"Sir. Now that we have changed the definition of having COVID-19 we have markedly less infected people in the United States. We used to have 8 million YTD, now it's only 1.2 million YTD. Amazing! Now...how do we explain all of these people filling up Emergency Departments, Urgent Cares, Outpatient Offices, and Hospitals and ICUs who all have similar complaints. They are short of breath, have diarrhea, feel sick, body aches, fever. Well they don't have COVID because we changed the detection parameters. But they sure look like they have covid. They smell like it, they walk like it. But they don't have it! On with your business! You can stop try to work so hard to mitigate disease and death because they don't have it!"
 
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Even if every covid credited death was really that, it’s 3x a bad flu. If we’re over calling that by 50-90% that’s a big deal.

Incorrect. COVID is much more than 3x a bad flu. We don't even care about the flu in the US and it kills 30-50K/year. We care very deeply (most of us) about COVID and enacted marked societal behavioral changes and we have 180K dead over 6 months.

Has anyone noticed that there are much less flu infections in the Southern Hemisphere this year?
 
Yep. You touch a door knob covered with 3-day-old dead virons, touch your nose, then on the way home crash your motorcycle and die. In the morgue they swab your nose with an outrageously over-sensitive PCR and voila! A COVID + death! Call the news! Make it viral on twitter! Tell the hospital CEO we have another one for more reimbursement. Call the cavalry. Close the town. Run to the hills. A plague is coming!

You really are one for the drama!
 
Incorrect. COVID is much more than 3x a bad flu. We don't even care about the flu in the US and it kills 30-50K/year. We care very deeply (most of us) about COVID and enacted marked societal behavioral changes and we have 180K dead over 6 months.

Has anyone noticed that there are much less flu infections in the Southern Hemisphere this year?
A bad flu year is 50-60k here and covid has been ~180k. I don’t see how that isn’t 3x a bad flu in terms of mortality (even if covid was actually the cause of all those)
 
A bad flu year is 50-60k here and covid has been ~180k. I don’t see how that isn’t 3x a bad flu in terms of mortality (even if covid was actually the cause of all those)
It's 3x as bad despite all the measures we've taken to slow transmission. Had we done nothing, likely would have been more deaths to date. Total number by the end of this might be the same, still not sure about that one.
 
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It's 3x as bad despite all the measures we've taken to slow transmission. Had we done nothing, likely would have been more deaths to date. Total number by the end of this might be the same, still not sure about that one.

Possibly true. We will never know. There's no alternate-universe America where we "did nothing" to compare as a baseline. Regardless, our feckless politicians will declare victory and count all the theoretical lives they've saved.

Assuming that we wouldn't have run out of ventilators, and assuming that the overall number of infections remain the same, regardless of measures to slow it then it's hard to see how we saved any lives.
 
NY TIMES: STAGGERINGLY HIGH FALSE POSITIVE RATE FOR COVID-19 PCR

According the New York Times, hardly a repository of right wing conspiratorial thinking, reported within the past 24 hours that currently used COVID-19 PCR tests appear to have a staggeringly high false positive rate, possibly as high as 70-90%. Yep, you read that right. Due to setting the test sensitivity aggressively high, up to 70-90% of positives might actually be more accurately reported as negative.

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I don’t think that’s necessarily considered a "false positive."

I think the argument is regards to whether or not that the positive is a significant amount of virus to make clinical decisions as the article discusses.

Once a person takes a test that’s only 1 moment in time and only captures virus if the swab was done well. Who knows if in 5 days their viral load is indeed higher?

I’m not arguing that true false positives don’t exist. I’m also not arguing that low viral loads are necessarily significant. I’m just saying based on this article it just amplified another area in which we still need to learn more and can’t just scream most people’s tests are false positives.
 
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A bad flu year is 50-60k here and covid has been ~180k. I don’t see how that isn’t 3x a bad flu in terms of mortality (even if covid was actually the cause of all those)

Because if we enacted all of the same precautions for flu as we do for COVID, the our mortality from flu would be around 5-10K each season.

I guess we will see how many die from the flu this winter in the US.
 
Because if we enacted all of the same precautions for flu as we do for COVID, the our mortality from flu would be around 5-10K each season.

I guess we will see how many die from the flu this winter in the US.

I disagree. The main reason COVID deaths are higher is because we don't have a vaccine. Flu kills 20-50K people WITH a vaccine. I don't think locking down every year would save lives from flu.
 
I disagree. The main reason COVID deaths are higher is because we don't have a vaccine. Flu kills 20-50K people WITH a vaccine. I don't think locking down every year would save lives from flu.

You vastly underestimate the effects of social distancing.

"Scientists say influenza has almost disappeared in the Southern Hemisphere due to COVID-19 precautions, suggesting the Northern Hemisphere may avoid the double whammy of the coronavirus and flu."



It's as clear as crystal yet you refuse to believe it. Just bewildering.
 
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You vastly underestimate the effects of social distancing.

"Scientists say influenza has almost disappeared in the Southern Hemisphere due to COVID-19 precautions, suggesting the Northern Hemisphere may avoid the double whammy of the coronavirus and flu."



It's as clear as crystal yet you refuse to believe it. Just bewildering.

Good, so if no one ever works again, disease is cured!
 
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I disagree. The main reason COVID deaths are higher is because we don't have a vaccine. Flu kills 20-50K people WITH a vaccine. I don't think locking down every year would save lives from flu.
It would since flu is very seasonal. COVID isn't.

You are right, if flattening the curve didn't change the area under the curve and if we wouldn't have run out of vents then the lockdown wasn't needed. But the latter is precisely what we worried about because of what happened in early hit places like Italy.

From my perspective it also gave time to shore up supplies of PPE for us. I suspect, but can't prove of course, that otherwise a lot of us in medicine would have gotten sick and, given the number of boomer doctors, died.
 
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The problem is we will never really know. Without going back and examining 180K patient charts, it will be difficult to ascertain if they died FROM Covid or WITH COVID. The point is moot now, as we are past the worst of the outbreak (hopefully) and it's too late to change any of the questionable public policy decisions based on new data.
I’d think the excess mortality rate is an ok metric to look at? From what I recall there was a bump in March and April and it’s close to normal now. A lot of nursing home patients succumbed to COVID, and otherwise most other people got through it.
Now the big, new panic is “what are the lingering side effects?”
 
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Surprisingly yes. In Summer in the desert people are inside aot and we do get a second small spike of flu in early Summer.
Weird. I live in SC (not exactly temperate summers here either) and have never seen flu in summer.

Does Vegas get lots of southern hemisphere tourists in the summer?

Edit: it does. 350k+ from Australia every year. Can't find out of it's seasonal or not.
 
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CDC:


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I don't think we can assume all 94% of the others had nothing to do with COVID-19 but I'll bet a good portion did, and another good portion had only a small contribution by COVID, particularly the nursing home patients (about 40% of COVID deaths) who are mostly DNR who's disease if left to run it's course, but would otherwise be survivable by >99% of otherwise even remotely healthy people.

What does that even mean?

Most people that die of an infection, die of multi-organ failure. Every death certificate I’ve filled out in my life has had every line full. I think I’ve admitted two people in the last 8 years who had only one diagnosis on their problem list.

Is it that 6% of Physicians are too lazy to do more?

Seriously, I’m asking. I’ve seen this posted on other forums.
 
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Finally happened but as of today the United States has passed Sweden with 58 vs 57 per 100K deaths.
 
What does that even mean?

Most people that die of an infection, die of multi-organ failure. Every death certificate I’ve filled out in my life has had every line full. I think I’ve admitted two people in the last 8 years who had only one diagnosis on their problem list.

Is it that 6% of Physicians are too lazy to do more?

Seriously, I’m asking. I’ve seen this posted on other forums.
It's hard to know exactly what the "6%" means without having all the data. You're correct that secondary diagnoses like "multi-organ" or "respiratory failure" can't be separated from COVID-19 as a cause of death. COVID could have caused the organ failure which could have led to death. That's just as much a COVID death as one with no other diagnoses on the certificate.

On the other hand, if you look further at the CDC data (Table 3) about 10% of COVID-19 deaths in people 34 and under have "Intentional and unintentional injury, poisoning and other" on the death certificate. These could easily be people that died of trauma, suicide, overdose or other causes, but happened to have asymptomatic or non-life threatening COVID-19.

So, is it all the other 94% that died totally unrelated to COVID-19? I don't think so. But it's some.
 
It's hard to know exactly what the "6%" means without having all the data. You're correct that secondary diagnoses like "multi-organ" or "respiratory failure" can't be separated from COVID-19 as a cause of death. COVID could have caused the organ failure which could have led to death. That's just as much a COVID death as one with no other diagnoses on the certificate.

On the other hand, if you look further at the CDC data (Table 3) about 10% of COVID-19 deaths in people 34 and under have "Intentional and unintentional injury, poisoning and other" on the death certificate. These could easily be people that died of trauma, suicide, overdose or other causes, but happened to have asymptomatic or non-life threatening COVID-19.

So, is it all the other 94% that died totally unrelated to COVID-19? I don't think so. But it's some.

Or people OD'd, were admitted, caught COVID, and died.

What's the obsession with downplaying the deadliness of COVID? Seems about 10x as deadly as seasonal influenza. Stop with the false hope that things will magically get better. It's exhausting.
 
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Stop with the false hope that things will magically get better. It's exhausting.
You want me to abandon my optimism in favor of your paralytic, pessimistic herd-think, so you don’t feel “exhausted”?

Not a chance.
 
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