How many interviews = an acceptance?

[ChePibe]

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For all of us neurotic pre meds I bring you another question loaded with subjectivity.
I think three is probably the key number.

 

[Dendrite]

Not justifying this with any sources, or logic for that matter, but I agree - 3 sounds right.

However, I would assume that one interview is all you need to get those odds of an acceptance (albeit still low for everyone).

 

[dd128]

I've asked this question too...I'd be happy if three was the magic number 😀

 

[Textuality]

Well, Hopkins for example ultimately accepts about 1/3 of the people they interview (including off the waitlist)...so maybe that's why 3 sound right? It would be awesome if it were 3! Oh, if only probability was certainty..ah well.

 

[pedro4199]

I heard you need at least 7 interviews in order to be confident that you ultimately will be accepted...

 

[MassTransport]

I'd say five.

 

[AL24]

For whatever it's worth, this exact question came up in a recent casual/social conversation I had with a family friend who is also a medical school professor. He seems to think 3 interviews is the magic number.

 

[erica31]

Comparing # of interview to # of acceptances is irrelevant. If you are an applicant with a dynamic personality that shines through in your interviews, 1 interview would = 1 acceptance.

But if you are....... well, the opposite. I suppose that you could have 10 interviews and not a single acceptance.

 

[pedro4199]

Well we can all be sure of this--the more waiting around we do, the more we post on SDN. 🙂😳🙁

 

[Jolie South]

There was a thread about this recently. Basically, it depends on the strength of your app and interviewing skills.

Someone with a great personality and excellent interviewing skills could go to 10 interviews and come out with 10 acceptances.

However, someone that is lackluster could go to 10 interviews and get all waitlists and rejections.

It depends on you and how well you sell yourself to the school.

 

[Textuality]

Well, let's just say for arguments sake, that you are neither amazing at interviewing, nor are you horrifically socially awkward. You are basically just the average joe, and tend to leave interviews feeling good, but not amazing.

 

[League54]

0<x<30

It depends on so many things, there's no definite answer to this question.

 

[dr midnight]

I have been on 9 interviews... each school is different but most schools told me that once you get an interview most odds were 1 to 3, Temple was 1 to 1.5 so if everything was equal I would guess 3 . I have been excepted at 3 still waiting to hear from the rest... no post interview rejections yet...

 

[Jolie South]

Well, let's just say for arguments sake, that you are neither amazing at interviewing, nor are you horrifically socially awkward. You are basically just the average joe, and tend to leave interviews feeling good, but not amazing.

The point I was trying to make is that it's not just random chance based on the number of people that schools accept after interviews.

Otherwise, if you got a particular number of interviews, you could guarantee an acceptance.

It's not just like flipping a coin a certain number of times to assure that you'll get "heads."

 

[dd128]

I guess if we're going to be all scientific and stuff about this you could use the statistics from last years applicants. The general consensus of about 20%-30% chances of getting in once interviewed seems to be about right...but this is only from the schools I've looked at. It may be different for others. Given those odds, I would say 5 interviews or more and no acceptances would be some kind of statistical anamoly. This is only my personal opinion and not based on any facts, so don't get mad at me if I'm wrong! 😛 Good luck to us all.

 

[MassTransport]

The point I was trying to make is that it's not just random chance based on the number of people that schools accept after interviews.

Otherwise, if you got a particular number of interviews, you could guarantee an acceptance.

It's not just like flipping a coin a certain number of times to assure that you'll get "heads."

I don't think anybody is assuming that it's a coin flip, but I believe that it comes close.

I'm of the opinion that most candidates don't distinguish themselves in interviews, either positively or negatively. Sure, they may think they did, and they may swear that their acceptance or rejection was because of the interview, but it's all a matter of perception. Awkward, antisocial goobers can pull themselves together and come off as a likeable fellow for thirty minutes. My worst interview became an acceptance, and I have yet to hear from my best interview.

 

[deuce924]

I am not a math major but I think 1 interview is enough to get an acceptance but I am sure there are those people out there who have 15 interviews with no acceptances. When it comes to this process, I like to think quality over quantity. Focus on the interviews you do have instead of the interviews you don't.

 

[0Complications]

The point I was trying to make is that it's not just random chance based on the number of people that schools accept after interviews.

Otherwise, if you got a particular number of interviews, you could guarantee an acceptance.

It's not just like flipping a coin a certain number of times to assure that you'll get "heads."

I don't think anybody is assuming that it's a coin flip, but I believe that it comes close.

I'm of the opinion that most candidates don't distinguish themselves in interviews, either positively or negatively. Sure, they may think they did, and they may swear that their acceptance or rejection was because of the interview, but it's all a matter of perception. Awkward, antisocial goobers can pull themselves together and come off as a likeable fellow for thirty minutes. My worst interview became an acceptance, and I have yet to hear from my best interview.

I agree with MT. There are so many variables involved, but one of them is definitely luck. So, if you don't have a four leaved clover, I WIN!!! , But seriously, luck is a factor.

 

[CGuy07]

I also agree that it is certainly not random. It has a lot to do with your interviewing skills. BUT assuming it was random, we can calculate easily the number of interviews you really need. Assuming that you have a 33% chance (which seems to be the average) of getting accepted once interviewed, then you would need

1 - (.67)^n = 0.95 (for 95% confidence) => n = 7.48

So, if you have 7-8 interviews, you can say with 95% confidence (i.e. almost assured) that you will get at least 1 acceptance. Of course, this is again assuming that it is completely random, which it is not.

 

[172858]

I have often wondered about this myself. Personally, I have 8 interviews (5 Texas, 3 OOS) and everyone I know seems to be pretty excited for me. Yet, with no acceptances under my belt as of yet, I still crap my pants every single day.

The way I see it, you just take every single interview you're invited to, pray for the best, and try not to drive yourself DSM-IV certifiable crazy in the process. However, I I'm probably not doing the best job of maintaining a decent level of sanity these days. And checking SDN (literally) every hour on the hour for new information probably isn't helping...

 

[Vihsadas]

I also agree that it is certainly not random. It has a lot to do with your interviewing skills. BUT assuming it was random, we can calculate easily the number of interviews you really need. Assuming that you have a 33% chance (which seems to be the average) of getting accepted once interviewed, then you would need

1 - (.67)^n = 0.95 (for 95% confidence) => n = 7.48

So, if you have 7-8 interviews, you can say with 95% confidence (i.e. almost assured) that you will get at least 1 acceptance. Of course, this is again assuming that it is completely random, which it is not.

Haha. Is it scary that I was about to post pretty much the same thing?

I personally think that it depends on your application, and your interview skills. For someone with great ECs, good PS, 3.9, 39MCAT, and is well thought out and personable it would probably only take 1.

For someone with a 3.5 and 33 MCAT with decent ECs, and a good PS, and is wells spokend it might take 3-5.

For someone with a 4.0 40MCAT, great ECs, and a good PS with crap ass social skills it might take 15, or never! I **** you not, I know a person who had a 39 and 3.97 with great volunteer work. He interviewed at every school he applied to (save 1) and was waitlisted or rejected outright by every single one (12 schools, all good schools). I'm positive that if you met the kid, you'd realize why.

 

[Textuality]

Haha, of course it's not like a coin-flip, but it sometimes does feel random. For example, what if you think an EC was very valuable, but the people assigned to your file just can't really relate? Or think another person's EC is "more" valuable. I feel like those kind of subjective little things, that may or may not have impact on your file, make things feel a little like luck. All of our applications involve some combo of EC's, numbers, and interview feedback, and many of us are probably fairly similar to each other in many of those 3 aspects (EC's like volunteering/travel/research, competitive numbers around the school averages, your normal genial persona), so when it comes judgment time, who's to say who is "better"? You could probably make a good argument for any of those cases, so I guess it just FEELS like it's random which line of logic the adcoms agree on. While it's true admissions is by no means purely random, it's also not entirely objective either, an hence where the luck comes in.

Of course, I'm just playing the "calculate the chances" game that so many of us SDN-er are found of 🙂 You know how much we love averages and such!

 

[Jolie South]

Haha, of course it's not like a coin-flip, but it sometimes does feel random. For example, what if you think an EC was very valuable, but the people assigned to your file just can't really relate? Or think another person's EC is "more" valuable. I feel like those kind of subjective little things, that may or may not have impact on your file, make things feel a little like luck. All of our applications involve some combo of EC's, numbers, and interview feedback, and many of us are probably fairly similar to each other in many of those 3 aspects (EC's like volunteering/travel/research, competitive numbers around the school averages, your normal genial persona), so when it comes judgment time, who's to say who is "better"? You could probably make a good argument for any of those cases, so I guess it just FEELS like it's random which line of logic the adcoms agree on. While it's true admissions is by no means purely random, it's also not entirely objective either, an hence where the luck comes in.

Of course, I'm just playing the "calculate the chances" game that so many of us SDN-er are found of 🙂 You know how much we love averages and such!

We would all love nothing more than a formula that gave us the number of interviews to attend to reach our desired number of acceptances. Too bad it's not that simple.🙂

 

[Textuality]

I know! Then I could rest easy...

Haha, although, I bet then we'd be wishing to know WHICH school we'd be getting the acceptance from!

 

[167649]

This question has been asked in previous threads. And in my opinion it is unanswerable. One applicant could have 20 interviews and 0 acceptances, another could have 1 interview and 1 acceptance. It really depends on how your interpersonal and interviewing skills are (to nail an acceptance) along with your resume and numbers (to get the interview).

 

[Aesculapius]

I think that someone, in response to the same question asked previously in this forum, crunched the math and did the statistics and found that 8 interviews gave a 95% chance of acceptance.

 

[TexasTriathlete]

On the DO forum, there was a guy who applied only to TCOM, and I thought he got in, but I don't remember for sure.

He said he lives right near the school, and that his application process cost him a total of $65 when it was all said and done. Not bad for efficiency.

 

[JMedical08]

I also agree that it is certainly not random. It has a lot to do with your interviewing skills. BUT assuming it was random, we can calculate easily the number of interviews you really need. Assuming that you have a 33% chance (which seems to be the average) of getting accepted once interviewed, then you would need

1 - (.67)^n = 0.95 (for 95% confidence) => n = 7.48

So, if you have 7-8 interviews, you can say with 95% confidence (i.e. almost assured) that you will get at least 1 acceptance. Of course, this is again assuming that it is completely random, which it is not.

Just so you know, thats not what confidence means (ie confidence and probability are not the same thing), important distinction if you're going to be a doctor.

 

[CGuy07]

Just so you know, thats not what confidence means (ie confidence and probability are not the same thing), important distinction if you're going to be a doctor.

Lol, you should get your facts straight before questioning my math! 😡

Confidence levels ARE probabilities. Usually, they refer to the probability that a certain population statistic will lie within a certain confidence interval:

"The confidence interval is the plus-or-minus figure usually reported in newspaper or television opinion poll results. For example, if you use a confidence interval of 4 and 47% percent of your sample picks an answer you can be "sure" that if you had asked the question of the entire relevant population between 43% (47-4) and 51% (47+4) would have picked that answer.


The confidence level tells you how "sure" you can be. It is expressed as a percentage and represents how often the true percentage of the population who would pick an answer lies within the confidence interval. The 95% confidence level means you can be 95% certain; the 99% confidence level means you can be 99% certain. Most researchers use the 95% confidence level."

You can then use the CL and CI to calculate a necessary sample size. In our case, however, there really isn't an "interval;" it's a discrete random variable (either acceptance or not). But the principles are the same, and that's why we can easily calculate the necessary sample size to give us a 95% probability that there will be at least one acceptance.

You should learn to get your facts straight before jumping to conclusions...that's an important distinction if you're going to be a doctor too. 😳)

 

[UFMed]

as many as it takes!

 

[MDRus]

if 3 or 4 likely produces one acceptance, will 7 or 8 produce 2?

 

[littlealex]

Well, Hopkins for example ultimately accepts about 1/3 of the people they interview (including off the waitlist)...so maybe that's why 3 sound right? It would be awesome if it were 3! Oh, if only probability was certainty..ah well.

Um... if you have 1/3 chance to get into each school, 3 interviews give you a 70.3% chance of being accepted anywhere.

 

[da me ka don]

I heard you need at least 7 interviews in order to be confident that you ultimately will be accepted...

aaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhh😀

 

[MDRus]

Um... if you have 1/3 chance to get into each school, 3 interviews give you a 70.3% chance of being accepted anywhere.

only if each is random. which it is not.

 

[JMedical08]

Lol, you should get your facts straight before questioning my math! 😡

Confidence levels ARE probabilities. Usually, they refer to the probability that a certain population statistic will lie within a certain confidence interval:

"The confidence interval is the plus-or-minus figure usually reported in newspaper or television opinion poll results. For example, if you use a confidence interval of 4 and 47% percent of your sample picks an answer you can be "sure" that if you had asked the question of the entire relevant population between 43% (47-4) and 51% (47+4) would have picked that answer.


The confidence level tells you how "sure" you can be. It is expressed as a percentage and represents how often the true percentage of the population who would pick an answer lies within the confidence interval. The 95% confidence level means you can be 95% certain; the 99% confidence level means you can be 99% certain. Most researchers use the 95% confidence level."

You can then use the CL and CI to calculate a necessary sample size. In our case, however, there really isn't an "interval;" it's a discrete random variable (either acceptance or not). But the principles are the same, and that's why we can easily calculate the necessary sample size to give us a 95% probability that there will be at least one acceptance.

You should learn to get your facts straight before jumping to conclusions...that's an important distinction if you're going to be a doctor too. 😳)

A confidence interval is a frequentist idea, and a frequentist would believe that there can be no probabilistic statement about a “true mean” which is what the Central Limit Theorem is used to determine.

What you calculated is a probability, based on a model where each interview gives someone a 1/3 probability (not confidence) of getting accepted, I just ask that you try to use the appropriate language.

 

[drizzt3117]

There are ppl on here that had 10+ interviews w/o getting in last year that have 6+ acceptances already this xear. There is just no way to know.

 

[Law2Doc]

There are ppl on here that had 10+ interviews w/o getting in last year that have 6+ acceptances already this xear. There is just no way to know.

Agreed. It can probably be reduced into a statistical formula, but you cannot start with a 1/3 assumption. The way thing work, for each rejection after interview you get, it becomes that much more likely you will get subsequent rejections, since it suggests lacking interview skills, and vice versa. You can't assume independent events. Because a certain amount of interviewing skill plays a huge role, it's far more likely that one student gets in everywhere he applies, and another gets in nowhere, rather than a random 1/3 chance. So for one applicant the number of interviews he needs to be set may exceed the 125 allo schools, while for another, the number will be more like 1-2. FWIW, most of the successful people in the applicant pool Ive met seem to apply to 15+ schools for a mere couple of acceptances, so this would suggest odds of far worse than 1/3.

 

[Karina 07]

To be sure of at least one acceptance, your interviews should approach infinity.

 

[Epibackpacker]

To just pile on the fun statistical jargon about this question I would point out that for any given person in this forum it is impossible to determine how many interviews they need for an acceptance. What we could theoretically determine is on average how many interviews it takes to get an acceptance. To do this we would need to know the shape of the distribution of interview number to acceptance number for the population of medical applicants a number which we do not know. Furthermore even if we obtained this number from SDN folks reporting it, this number would be biased since the SDN population does not generalize to the population of medical students currently applying. Even if we could stratify the data by people stats say GPA and MCAT this would leave a substantial portion of the variation unaccounted for as it likely lies in the interviewing skills, LORs, research, ECs, community service etc of the population items which are not readily quantifiable.
Go Epidemiology.

 

[BoilerWolverine]

Comparing # of interview to # of acceptances is irrelevant. If you are an applicant with a dynamic personality that shines through in your interviews, 1 interview would = 1 acceptance.

But if you are....... well, the opposite. I suppose that you could have 10 interviews and not a single acceptance.

Well said!

 

[BoilerWolverine]

Based on totally random chance, and 1/3 chance per interview:

Interviews Odds of getting in somewhere
1 0.3333
2 0.5556
3 0.7037
4 0.8025
5 0.8683
6 0.9122
7 0.9415
8 0.9610
9 0.9740
10 0.9827
11 0.9884
12 0.9923
13 0.9949
14 0.9966
15 0.9977
16 0.9985
17 0.9990
18 0.9993
19 0.9995
20 0.9997

If anyone would like to play with the spreadsheet, PM me and I'll send my toolishness your way.