I don't completely disagree with you, but I will say that there is significant controversy (at least among EMS providers) about the studies showing poor first-pass success. To your comment regarding BVM: there was a study in SCA and it found the BVM group had better neurologic outcomes.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23321764. Good thought. With that said, the reasons for this probably vary. The Wang studies out of Pittsburgh have been criticized because they took place in PA, where EMS is largely rural and funded in all sorts of crazy, non-sustainable ways. Someone will argue with me, but it's largely true. In my own experience, I've rarely ever worked with anyone who had the lack of exposure that he described in one of his studies ( I
think was 1-2 attempts/yr). Most of our paramedics obtained
at least 5-6 intubations a year with overall success in the 90% range and a first-pass rate in the 80th percentile. Among experienced paramedics I would venture to say it was well over 90% and with higher total numbers. Not ED quality, admittedly. I have never seen an unrecognized esophageal intubation after the advent of prehospital EtCO2 monitoring. Never. In great systems with highly educated paramedics, available intubation rotations,
an involved medical director, and good QA I'd say the rate is comparable (elite, competitive programs and flight EMS). Again, rare.
There is also some debate about the neurologic outcomes in intubation during SCA. I personally used to work in a system where intubation took priority in arrest and, honestly, I still believe it affected outcomes. Placing undue and unnecessary pressure for early success at the expensive of high-quality CPR is probably the causative agent of the poor outcomes, not the intubation itself. Only recently did the emphasis go to "high-performance" CPR and intubation before transport.
I definitely think you'll see adoption of ultrasound in well-funded systems, if only because I've already seen an entire industry starting to provide it. GE is already dabbling in the market and Physio, Zoll, and Philips wants to sell the next great thing. Capitalism will win here. Apparently, according to my old monitor rep, at least one manufacturer is already developing a future monitor with included ultrasound and there is a CE industry upstarting to provide 3 day and 1-week ultrasounds courses. As part of the new National Scope of Practice update from the old paramedic to the new, every paramedic in my system received a basic ultrasound in-service, including the basics of a FAST exam. I've read about systems that teach everything from the basics of kidney stone identification to fractures in the larger long bones. I'm not speaking to the efficacy of any of this, and as someone who recognizes there are entire fellowships in ultrasound, I myself questioning how good you can be at something with a 1 week course.