Inflation, Interest Rates and the Economy for 2025

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pgg said:
I don't pick individual stocks, but if I did, I wouldn't buy TSLA. It's a car company that's going to struggle to sell cars for the foreseeable future, it's ridiculously overvalued, handicapped by Elon Musk dabbling in politics (to say the least), and despite being a first mover in the EV market, now faces growing competition from other manufacturers.

There are people who will argue that TSLA isn't a car company - that it's a "technology" company and worth its stock price because of AI and self-driving tech and because it'll have a monopoly over consumer transportation on Mars because of Elon and SpaceX, but those people are wrong.
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Well if you arent stock picking then your index fund is doing it for you. Which means bing bing bing bing bing, you own tesla. Probably a lot of it.

Ray Dalio and Warren Buffet are wrong?“those people” are not wrong. Tesla is probably more than anything else, a software company. Then cars, energy, robotics. Etc. you do realize tesla and spacex are going to be designing and building the golden dome right?
 
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pgg said:
I own TSLA in whatever proportion any of my index funds own it.
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TeslaCoil said:
Well if you arent stock picking then your index fund is doing it for you. Which means bing bing bing bing bing, you own tesla. Probably a lot of it.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I said that.
 
Gern Blansten said:
You expressed just as much “certainty” in the opposite direction when you said, “those people are wrong.” (Post 1889)
I don’t know who is correct, but you’re calling him out as untrustworthy for the exact same thing you did only a few posts upstream.
How do you reconcile that?
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🙂

I suppose I should've put a smiley by that line, as it was intended tongue-in-cheek. Thought it was obvious from context, but I guess not.

I've been arguing with @DirectLaryngoscopy about bitcoin for years. He thinks it's the future of finance, that it'll be the currency of daily transactions[1], and that people who don't buy it now now NOW will be hopelessly left behind in the dustbin of history.

He seems to have hurt feelings about my disagreement there, but it's just idle conversation to me.

I'm not calling him out as untrustworthy. He has an opinion he presents as fact. That's OK, we all do it. He just seems unaware that his opinion is an opinion.

For all my doubt about bitcoin being the future of finance, I've got a lot more faith in it than I do Tesla as a car company.


[1] he has rolled this back a bit in the last couple years, now touting bitcoin more as a "store of value" than a useful "currency"
 
pgg said:
🙂

I suppose I should've put a smiley by that line, as it was intended tongue-in-cheek. Thought it was obvious from context, but I guess not.

I've been arguing with @DirectLaryngoscopy about bitcoin for years. He thinks it's the future of finance, that it'll be the currency of daily transactions[1], and that people who don't buy it now now NOW will be hopelessly left behind in the dustbin of history.

He seems to have hurt feelings about my disagreement there, but it's just idle conversation to me.

I'm not calling him out as untrustworthy. He has an opinion he presents as fact. That's OK, we all do it. He just seems unaware that his opinion is an opinion.

For all my doubt about bitcoin being the future of finance, I've got a lot more faith in it than I do Tesla as a car company.


[1] he has rolled this back a bit in the last couple years, now touting bitcoin more as a "store of value" than a useful "currency"
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I think hes more right than you give credit for though. I dont think it will be a good transacting currency. It will most definitely be a store of value and worth a lot more than it is now.
 
pgg said:
🙂

I suppose I should've put a smiley by that line, as it was intended tongue-in-cheek. Thought it was obvious from context, but I guess not.

I've been arguing with @DirectLaryngoscopy about bitcoin for years. He thinks it's the future of finance, that it'll be the currency of daily transactions[1], and that people who don't buy it now now NOW will be hopelessly left behind in the dustbin of history.

He seems to have hurt feelings about my disagreement there, but it's just idle conversation to me.

I'm not calling him out as untrustworthy. He has an opinion he presents as fact. That's OK, we all do it. He just seems unaware that his opinion is an opinion.

For all my doubt about bitcoin being the future of finance, I've got a lot more faith in it than I do Tesla as a car company.


[1] he has rolled this back a bit in the last couple years, now touting bitcoin more as a "store of value" than a useful "currency"
Click to expand...

You’re illustrating my point. You don’t know me. The words you put on this site mean nothing to me but a chuckle. You really think what you post here have an effect other than a laugh from me? Lmao.

I usually don’t engage with you because it doesn’t make a difference. I only engaged here because I wanted to see how far you with analysis of me (hence the you don’t know me). You couldn’t stay in your lane, and you still analyze me. Its hilarious to me. Im quite sure you’ll have the last word about what or who I am. lol

You might have been arguing with me about $BTC, but I don’t argue with anyone, it doesn’t make a difference. Global Adoption (and price), dictates the Bitcoin discussion. You can remain a skeptic, it doesn’t matter.

I hold strong opinions loosely held. As a short trader and long term investor, I need to pivot if new info invalidates my hypotheses.

This will be my last post on this matter, because it doesn’t make a difference. I’ll sit back and read your continued analysis of me. Lmao. Just know you don’t get any emote from me besides a chuckle. Lmao.
 
pgg said:
He has an opinion he presents as fact. That's OK, we all do it. He just seems unaware that his opinion is an opinion.
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I’ve tried to point this issue out to Rowsdower before and he didn’t like it one bit. He and vector called me a pedant, if I recall correctly. All because they didn’t understand the difference between fact and opinion.
 
TeslaCoil said:
Id rather some shakeups than a zombie for a president. A little "chaos" can be very healthy.
Click to expand...

But it’s not really “chaos,” right? It’s the government picking and choosing winners and losers. The “chaos” of capitalist free markets is what is healthy, not the random whims of one man deciding how to move the economy based on who insulted and who bribed him.
 
GravelRider said:
But it’s not really “chaos,” right? It’s the government picking and choosing winners and losers. The “chaos” of capitalist free markets is what is healthy, not the random whims of one man deciding how to move the economy based on who insulted and who bribed him.
Click to expand...
Every president does some of that. Every single one. Don't delude thine self. At least this president actually seems to want to better the American people in some way instead of just feeding the masses hope-ium while lining ones own pockets in the background, while also ignoring large and growing difficult problems.
 
TeslaCoil said:
Every president does some of that. Every single one. Don't delude thine self. At least this president actually seems to want to better the American people in some way instead of just feeding the masses hope-ium while lining ones own pockets in the background, while also ignoring large and growing difficult problems.
Click to expand...

Never thought id see the day with the presidnet of usa and his family pushing btc adoption. Crazy times ahead. Also tesla/musk will be on the winning side of this no doubt given. The stock will be at 400 next month.
 
TeslaCoil said:
Every president does some of that. Every single one. Don't delude thine self. At least this president actually seems to want to better the American people in some way instead of just feeding the masses hope-ium while lining ones own pockets in the background, while also ignoring large and growing difficult problems.
Click to expand...

Thine? If you wanted to be obnoxious (which you are, so don’t worry), you should have used “thy” instead. But man, give me some of that delusional juice you are drinking because I want to experience a different reality like you. Keep up the politician worship.
 
TeslaCoil said:
Every president does some of that. Every single one. Don't delude thine self. At least this president actually seems to want to better the American people in some way instead of just feeding the masses hope-ium while lining ones own pockets in the background, while also ignoring large and growing difficult problems.
Click to expand...
You also should lay off the maga juice dude.
 
GravelRider said:
Thine? If you wanted to be obnoxious (which you are, so don’t worry), you should have used “thy” instead. But man, give me some of that delusional juice you are drinking because I want to experience a different reality like you. Keep up the politician worship.
Click to expand...
Im glad you were able to figure that out (that im being obnoxious, and yes, I am). Matrix level revelation for you- you're the one drinking "thy" blue cool aid sir.
 
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TeslaCoil said:
Every president does some of that. Every single one. Don't delude thine self. At least this president actually seems to want to better the American people in some way instead of just feeding the masses hope-ium while lining ones own pockets in the background, while also ignoring large and growing difficult problems.
Click to expand...
Lay off the MAGA juice. Trump does nothing unless it benefits him or his family. It has always been about the grift. It’s just out in wide open now.
 
Arch Guillotti said:
Lay off the MAGA juice. Trump does nothing unless it benefits him or his family. It has always been about the grift. It’s just out in wide open now.
Click to expand...
Well if you're going to chime in, why dont you get specific? Just bullet points supporting your thesis. I guess the majority of America is sipping "MAGA juice" like you say? Wait a minute here. I better watch what I say, or else get banned.

They called the one man who created opportunity zones, gave prison reform, endowments to black colleges a racist. That was a farce.

They called him a criminal, and out of umpteen lawsuits only one loose "falsification of business documents" case stuck, and not very well.

They say all he does is serve himself when literally all his life the man has done plenty for others.

The man wants to lay the bedrock for a strong US economy going forward. Do you not understand that everyone under the sun is jumping ship on the US dollar because the writing is on the wall?

What will you say when we are no longer calling the global shots? And an eastern block alliance has the power?

This is not just about Trump. Its about not being the m0r0nic policies of Joe Biden and friends.

You want to talk about Trump benefiting his family? Why not include Joe Biden pardoning his prostituting crackhead son?
 
TeslaCoil said:
Well if you're going to chime in, why dont you get specific? Just bullet points supporting your thesis. I guess the majority of America is sipping "MAGA juice" like you say? Wait a minute here. I better watch what I say, or else get banned.

They called the one man who created opportunity zones, gave prison reform, endowments to black colleges a racist. That was a farce.

They called him a criminal, and out of umpteen lawsuits only one loose "falsification of business documents" case stuck, and not very well.

They say all he does is serve himself when literally all his life the man has done plenty for others.

The man wants to lay the bedrock for a strong US economy going forward. Do you not understand that everyone under the sun is jumping ship on the US dollar because the writing is on the wall?

What will you say when we are no longer calling the global shots? And an eastern block alliance has the power?

This is not just about Trump. Its about not being the m0r0nic policies of Joe Biden and friends.

You want to talk about Trump benefiting his family? Why not include Joe Biden pardoning his prostituting crackhead son?
Click to expand...
People are jumping ship on the US dollar because of all the shenanigans Drump has been pulling.

You need bullet points? Really? You are so far down the rabbit hole it is astounding. I still am not convinced you’re not a Russian bot / troll
 
murdoc9 said:
People are jumping ship on the US dollar because of all the shenanigans Drump has been pulling.

You need bullet points? Really? You are so far down the rabbit hole it is astounding. I still am not convinced you’re not a Russian bot / troll
Click to expand...
Okay so explain it to me in your genius way. You think people have just now started to jump ship on the dollar? The arabs have been talking about ditching the petro dollar for years. What are you talking about?
 
TeslaCoil said:
Okay so explain it to me in your genius way. You think people have just now started to jump ship on the dollar? The arabs have been talking about ditching the petro dollar for years. What are you talking about?
Click to expand...
it doesn’t take a genius to know that, while the US dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency has been steadily declining over decades, none of Trumps actions are going to help that rate of decline, and almost certainly are steepening it.

Kinda like climate change.. Just because the earth naturally goes through cycles of warming and cooling, doesn’t mean we have to continue annihilating the atmosphere with greenhouse gasses
 
murdoc9 said:
it doesn’t take a genius to know that, while the US dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency has been steadily declining over decades, none of Trumps actions are going to help that rate of decline, and almost certainly are steepening it.

Kinda like climate change.. Just because the earth naturally goes through cycles of warming and cooling, doesn’t mean we have to continue annihilating the atmosphere with greenhouse gasses
Click to expand...
How pray tell does driving manufacturing back to the US weaken the dollar? Mining for minerals in the US? US energy? Drilling for oil? Fighting for better trade deals? how does any of that spell a steepening?

A sovereign wealth fund? with a bitcoin reserve? what are you talking about?

Do you not understand that trump is trying to figure out how to discharge the national debt and even out our deficits?

I suppose you're against no tax on tips and SS income? I bet you love that there were people who were age 120+ sucking down your hard earned social security payments too. Ridiculous.

Why dont you go burn down some more teslas. Mr. greenhouse gases.
 
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struck a nerve I see! Love that you maga-ers can dish it out but can’t take it. Just like Trump.

I don’t believe the things you mentioned are going to help the US dollar. Very backward looking. We need to be a country of ideas that works with our allies, not an oil drilling autocracy
 
TeslaCoil said:
How pray tell does driving manufacturing back to the US weaken the dollar? Mining for minerals in the US? US energy? Drilling for oil? Fighting for better trade deals? how does any of that spell a steepening?

A sovereign wealth fund? with a bitcoin reserve? what are you talking about?

Do you not understand that trump is trying to figure out how to discharge the national debt and even out our deficits?

I suppose you're against no tax on tips and SS income? I bet you love that there were people who were age 120+ sucking down your hard earned social security payments too. Ridiculous.

Why dont you go burn down some more teslas. Mr. greenhouse gases.
Click to expand...
You're just straight up ignoring the "big, beautiful bill" aren't you?
 
murdoc9 said:
struck a nerve I see! Love that you maga-ers can dish it out but can’t take it. Just like Trump.

I don’t believe the things you mentioned are going to help the US dollar. Very backward looking. We need to be a country of ideas that works with our allies, not an oil drilling autocracy
Click to expand...
Not at all Im the one taking it and dishing it back to you.

Backward looking?? 🤣 Glad to see thats all you have.
 
TeslaCoil said:
I love the BBB. Cant wait to see it passed.
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Isn’t the conservative stance FISCAL responsibility with regards to our national deficit?

idk man…

DOGE was one of the biggest failures ever.
2 trillion in savings? LMAO.

You just can’t “doge” that bullet. It’s just fact.

All I can say is that 2024 the NASDAQ was up 28% and so far our amazing “deal maker”, has negative returns half way through 2025.

The only line this presidency has held is immigration- but at the cost of due process which is a core value we have always held in high regard.

Putin played Trump like champ.

TACOs are being served every other day.

Nobody in the international arena is taking him seriously.

Definition of a roller coaster ride that started when we were at our peak financially.

The reality of this presidency is that DJT has more than doubled his net worth while the rest of the country has sustained significant economic hardship (stock market, inflation, small business, etc).

I’ve said this a million times, I am not left or right. Could be either depending on the merits of our leadership.

I hope he can pull a rabbit out of a hat.
Just not sure if he has the magic.
 
sevoflurane said:
Isn’t the conservative stance FISCAL responsibility with regards to our national deficit?

idk man…

DOGE was one of the biggest failures ever.
2 trillion in savings? LMAO.

You just can’t “doge” that bullet. It’s just fact.

All I can say is that 2024 the NASDAQ was up 28% and so far our amazing “deal maker”, has negative returns half way through 2025.

The only line this presidency has held is immigration- but at the cost of due process which is a core value we have always held in high regard.

Putin played Trump like champ.

TACOs are being served every other day.

Nobody in the international arena is taking him seriously.

Definition of a roller coaster ride that started when we were at our peak financially.

The reality of this presidency is that DJT has more than doubled his net worth while the rest of the country has sustained significant economic hardship (stock market, inflation, small business, etc).

I’ve said this a million times, I am not left or right. Could be either depending on the merits of our leadership.

I hope he can pull a rabbit out of a hat.
Just not sure if he has the magic.
Click to expand...

That would be a fun chart…a comparison in the growth of the net worth of Trump vs U.S. economic growth over time during the Trump presidency.
 
GravelRider said:
That would be a fun chart…a comparison in the growth of the net worth of Trump vs U.S. economic growth over time during the Trump presidency.
Click to expand...
From chatgpt with the prompt: give me a comparison chart of donald trump net worth vs us economic growth over the last 5 months

Caveat: I have no idea where the data is pulled from, I have no idea why the April to May GDP exploded, I highly doubt this factors in all the under the table dealings Trump has.

Screenshot 2025-05-31 at 10.06.46 AM.png
 
MirrorTodd said:
From chatgpt with the prompt: give me a comparison chart of donald trump net worth vs us economic growth over the last 5 months

Caveat: I have no idea where the data is pulled from, I have no idea why the April to May GDP exploded, I highly doubt this factors in all the under the table dealings Trump has.

View attachment 404353
Click to expand...
How stupid is it to think that a billionaire became president so that he could get rich? Pretty stupid in my book. Glad you put it on paper for us though. Of course when the economy suffers so does Donald Trumps net worth. Just like all the rest of us asset holders.
 
GravelRider said:
But it’s not really “chaos,” right? It’s the government picking and choosing winners and losers. The “chaos” of capitalist free markets is what is healthy, not the random whims of one man deciding how to move the economy based on who insulted and who bribed him.
Click to expand...
The Dems did that with the ACA and we all know who bribed the Dems
1. Hospitals
2. Insurance companies
3. Device and big pharma

You gotta a fool not to know who was doing the bribes back than. And who the winner and losers were.

The govt with the dems back than was picking and choosing.
 
aneftp said:
The Dems did that with the ACA and we all know who bribed the Dems
1. Hospitals
2. Insurance companies
3. Device and big pharma

You gotta a fool not to know who was doing the bribes back than. And who the winner and losers were.

The govt with the dems back than was picking and choosing.
Click to expand...
Well, these industries have bribed both sides for decades.
 
sevoflurane said:
Isn’t the conservative stance FISCAL responsibility with regards to our national deficit?

idk man…

DOGE was one of the biggest failures ever.
2 trillion in savings? LMAO.

You just can’t “doge” that bullet. It’s just fact.

All I can say is that 2024 the NASDAQ was up 28% and so far our amazing “deal maker”, has negative returns half way through 2025.

The only line this presidency has held is immigration- but at the cost of due process which is a core value we have always held in high regard.

Putin played Trump like champ.

TACOs are being served every other day.

Nobody in the international arena is taking him seriously.

Definition of a roller coaster ride that started when we were at our peak financially.

The reality of this presidency is that DJT has more than doubled his net worth while the rest of the country has sustained significant economic hardship (stock market, inflation, small business, etc).

I’ve said this a million times, I am not left or right. Could be either depending on the merits of our leadership.

I hope he can pull a rabbit out of a hat.
Just not sure if he has the magic.
Click to expand...
It has always been about the grift. Always.
 
TeslaCoil said:
How stupid is it to think that a billionaire became president so that he could get rich? Pretty stupid in my book. Glad you put it on paper for us though. Of course when the economy suffers so does Donald Trumps net worth. Just like all the rest of us asset holders.
Click to expand...
Wow I had no idea that once someone becomes a billionaire they stop caring about just getting richer. That's actually quite surprising to me.
 
TeslaCoil said:
How stupid is it to think that a billionaire became president so that he could get rich? Pretty stupid in my book. Glad you put it on paper for us though. Of course when the economy suffers so does Donald Trumps net worth. Just like all the rest of us asset holders.
Click to expand...
Probably not as stupid as it would be to think he became president for reasons outside of becoming rich and powerful.

This is the same guy who committed tax fraud, ran a fraudulent charity, ran fraudulent real estate teaching courses...all for money

Everything about him says he cares about making more money, along with greater fame and power. C'mon now
 
UscGhost said:
Well, these industries have bribed both sides for decades.
Click to expand...
Everyone protects their own best interests. And then poison the pill to mask it illegal for doctors to own their own hospitals.

There has been so much hospitals consolidation over the last 10-15 years, it’s so obvious the way the ACA is was planned. Higher prices for consumers. Consolidation of power.

Except when a small usap company disrupts the super plan of insurers like United healthcare

So it’s not different with trump being bribed

But don’t you find it interesting him and elon are buddy buddies. Yet the plan is to get rid of the EV tax credits. Elon is probably thinking on a higher level thinking ending ev tax credits will hurt other ev manufacturers than Tesla.
 
aneftp said:
Everyone protects their own best interests. And then poison the pill to mask it illegal for doctors to own their own hospitals.

There has been so much hospitals consolidation over the last 10-15 years, it’s so obvious the way the ACA is was planned. Higher prices for consumers. Consolidation of power.

Except when a small usap company disrupts the super plan of insurers like United healthcare

So it’s not different with trump being bribed

But don’t you find it interesting him and elon are buddy buddies. Yet the plan is to get rid of the EV tax credits. Elon is probably thinking on a higher level thinking ending ev tax credits will hurt other ev manufacturers than Tesla.
Click to expand...
The ACA wasn't designed to encourage hospital consolidation. That's the free market response to it.

Medical costs have been rising long before the ACA and actually, post ACA rate of increase was LESS than pre ACA.

I doubt doctor owned hospitals would be any better. It's not like doctors haven't proven to be just as greedy as everyone else
 
UscGhost said:
The ACA wasn't designed to encourage hospital consolidation. That's the free market response to it.

Medical costs have been rising long before the ACA and actually, post ACA rate of increase was LESS than pre ACA.

I doubt doctor owned hospitals would be any better. It's not like doctors haven't proven to be just as greedy as everyone else
Click to expand...
Hospitals know they cannot compete with the people who actually provide the services. The doctors.

You are simply living in la la land to not realize this.

If the policy makers really thought the free market would take care of itself. Why even make it illegal for doc to own their own hospitals? It’s because they wanted to prevent that option

You don’t think hospitals 501c cough cough are altruistic? Look at all the advertising on the local cities by 501c. It’s ridiculous in Florida. I see so many 501c hospitals advertised from Miami to Jacksonvile. From Daytona beach to st Pete.

The amount of ads you see by these non profits really is insane and wasteful spending.

Trump should just yank all the non profit status of these 501C hospitals who spend any money on ads.
 
TeslaCoil said:
How stupid is it to think that a billionaire became president so that he could get rich? Pretty stupid in my book. Glad you put it on paper for us though. Of course when the economy suffers so does Donald Trumps net worth. Just like all the rest of us asset holders.
Click to expand...
Um , Because he wasn’t actually a billionaire.
 
aneftp said:
Hospitals know they cannot compete with the people who actually provide the services. The doctors.

You are simply living in la la land to not realize this.

If the policy makers really thought the free market would take care of itself. Why even make it illegal for doc to own their own hospitals? It’s because they wanted to prevent that option

You don’t think hospitals 501c cough cough are altruistic? Look at all the advertising on the local cities by 501c. It’s ridiculous in Florida. I see so many 501c hospitals advertised from Miami to Jacksonvile. From Daytona beach to st Pete.

The amount of ads you see by these non profits really is insane and wasteful spending.

Trump should just yank all the non profit status of these 501C hospitals who spend any money on ads.
Click to expand...
Why would they care if doctors could own their own hospitals? Docs would want to profit just the same as private equity or hospital systems. It was restricted because they thought that doctor owned hospitals would Cherry pick good insurance patients and restrict hospital access for less optimal patients

So you haven't provided and evidence or logical reasoning that supports the idea that the motivation of the ACA was to consolidate hospitals.

Non profit hospitals are required to reinvest the profits into the hospital and community. That's why nonprofits are generally nicer hospitals than for-profit community hospitals. Why can't they advertise? Are there loop holes? Probably. But for profit hospitals certainly have no interest in reinvesting anything. So can't be any worse
 
UscGhost said:
Why would they care if doctors could own their own hospitals? Docs would want to profit just the same as private equity or hospital systems. It was restricted because they thought that doctor owned hospitals would Cherry pick good insurance patients and restrict hospital access for less optimal patients

So you haven't provided and evidence or logical reasoning that supports the idea that the motivation of the ACA was to consolidate hospitals.

Non profit hospitals are required to reinvest the profits into the hospital and community. That's why nonprofits are generally nicer hospitals than for-profit community hospitals. Why can't they advertise? Are there loop holes? Probably. But for profit hospitals certainly have no interest in reinvesting anything. So can't be any worse
Click to expand...


Never worked in a doctor owned hospital but I have worked in nonprofit hospital owned and physician owned ASCs. The hospital owned ASCs have far better equipment, supplies, EHR, and don’t “encourage” you to cheap out on drugs. I’d pick the nonprofit hospital owned facility every single time.
 
nimbus said:
Never worked in a doctor owned hospital but I have worked in nonprofit hospital owned and physician owned ASCs. The hospital owned ASCs have far better equipment, supplies, EHR, and don’t “encourage” you to cheap out on drugs. I’d pick the nonprofit hospital owned facility every single time.
Click to expand...
Give me HCA or TENET all the time 👀
 
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