Zpak, you are very knowledgeable in many areas but this post is fundamentally incorrect on many levels. Inflation and/or deflation are driven by monetary supply issues not the value of the equity or real estate markets. Here's why:
Oh no...not the Seeking alpha's Gold Propaganda...
Did you read the entire article in the link? The author states that inflation/deflation is purely a monetary phenomenon. Ok, fine.. Then supply of money must include credit line also. Don't you agree? If so, real estate equity credit that was available for the homeowners to enjoy spending has almost completely dried up hence creating a significant decrease in money supply. Agree?
You can see this above in MZM growth. The US economy is shrinking thanks to the panic, there are less goods and services on which to spend money. Yet simultaneously the Fed is recklessly ramping broad money at double-digit rates. Sooner or later relatively more money will be bidding for relatively less goods and services, which will drive up prices. You simply can't have 10%+ MZM growth without seeing big inflation eventually. The Fed last did this in late 2001 (panicking after 9/11) which helped initially kick start the commodities bulls.
Wait... didn't he say supply and demand should not be associated with or define "inflation and deflation? What he describes sounds like to me a supply and demand associated inflation. Yet, this assumption is totally false. Currently, our economy is overstocked with goods and services which no one is willing to buy due to the economical psychology of current situation. The federal reserve's goal is to prevent bank collapse, improve liquidity, then spur consumer confidence to purchase the overstocked goods and supplies to deplete it. Only then we can improve our employment status.
If we learned anything from the Great Depression is that the major lending institutions must be protected to foster a much needed trust between lenders and borrowers to ensure money flows.
Say you buy 100 shares of a stock @ $10/share. That's an investment of $1000. You spend $1000 and the seller gains $1000. No net change to the amount of cash in the system. Now say the stock crashes to $1/share. In a panic, you sell your 100 shares for $100. You gain $100 and the buyer spends $100. No net change to the amount of cash in the system. What about the $900 you lost? Well, the buyer of the stock in the second transaction has $900 more than they would have had if they had bought the stock at the higher price. That $900 can be used for other securities, goods, or services in the market. In each scenario, the monetary base has not changed at all. The same concepts are true of real estate or any other market for that matter.
What..money is energy now? It can never be created nor destroyed? Just transfer? If this is the case, how could GDP ever grow?
Then you stated that the Fed has "only" added 1 trillion dollars which is a drop in the bucket. However, in the past year, the Fed has increased the size of M0, which is the amount of cash and cash equivalents in the economy, by 98%. The bucket is now twice as large. M0 has only increased by an average of 6% per year over the last 40 years and is strongly correlated to inflation. How can you say that doubling the money supply while GDP is contracting will not lead to inflation?
Hey, devaluation of dollar may not be a bad thing... it will be easy to pay off our debt to China...
BTW, I do believe China and Japan combined hold about 16% of our debt. Of course fear-mongers say China will flush $ and everyone else will follow.. and US will bankrupt.. so buy Gold!
Finally, I will grant that the dollar is not your typical currency, but not for the reasons you indicated. The dollar is resilient because it is still the best game in town. Who else are the Chinese going to sell their stuff to? They have no choice but to continue to buy our T-bills, allowing the US to fall further into debt. A debt which can never be paid back when you consider the unfunded obligations of Social Security and Medicare.
Well, dollar is resilient and it's still the best game in town because not only is dollar the de facto global reserve currency, oil can only be purchased in dollars. Bretton Woods Agreement (btw, mt Washington resort in NH is beautiful) was set up to peg US dollar as the world reserve currency based on gold standard post WWII. Of course we defaulted on this agreement in 1971 but in 1973, we coerced OPEC to only accept dollar as the oil trade currency. That is why dollar is resilient and it can fund our deficit spending. And it will continue to do so until dollar hegemony collapses.
Oh, and social security is fully funded. In fact, the surplus revenue of SS is loaned back out to our gov. Of course I believe surplus revenue will stop in 2012. We will need to revamp this system when that happens.
This article explains these concepts much better than I ever could:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/116297-evidence-that-big-inflation-is-coming
Inflation should be welcome for anybody with big student loans because those loans will be paid back with less valuable dollars.
Yeah..read that article again. It's trying to sell you gold. I'm glad Ron Paul didn't get elected. We can't afford to go back to the gold standard. And John Maynard Keynes will turn over in his grave.