MD/PhD Hopeful Seeking School Advice

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SomethingTangential

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First of all, thanks for taking the time to check out my post, I appreciate it.

Tl;dr: Masters Degree with 2 first author papers, one co-first in review, and a middle author. 3.69 uGPA and a 515 MCAT. Interested in MSTP programs but not sure how high up the rankings I should reach.

If you want the long version:
I will be applying this cycle for MD/PhD programs and was hoping to get some insight from others as to how competitive I might expect to be. Narrowing down my list of universities has been challenging because I don’t know to what extent my strong positive (my research experience) might offset my OK GPA. My MCAT should be more in less in range for most MD/PhD programs but I suppose I could take it again with more preparation if needed.

Basic Stats:
cGPA: 3.69
sGPA: 3.60
MCAT: 515

The above GPA is from a reasonably well-regarded large state university. For what its worth in my last 4 semesters, comprised mostly of upper level science courses, I earned a 3.92. After undergrad I thought I would pursue a pure research career and decided to work on a PhD. I am unable to transfer from the PhD program to my university’s MSTP program however and so after a lot of conversations with advisors and others I will be leaving with a master’s degree and applying to a variety of combined programs this year. So I have spent the last 2.5 years at a top-10 department in my field and done the following:

-2 First author papers, 1 middle author, and 1 co-first in review.
-Earned a decent GPA. Doesn't seem as if grad school grades matter much though.
-Clocked about 100 hours shadowing with a general surgeon and 100 hours shadowing with a pathologist.

At the end of the day I think the masters degree was a great decision for me and I’m not upset at all to be leaving with it. I’ve learned a lot in the last two and a half years and I think if I’m accepted into an MD/PhD program I will be a much better researcher during the PhD portion than I would have been otherwise. I really grew a lot as a thinker and have great relations with my PI and committee members here so I should have good letters of recommendation.

My GPA is a bit lower than a lot of MudPhud applicants but my research experience is probably more robust than most and I figure the MCAT is just about in that range of “don’t worry about it”. It’s just been stressing me out (my welcoming to the pre-med club I suppose : p) and I figured I would see if anyone had some perspective they could share. I feel fairly confident that if I apply broadly (to schools that mesh well with my research interests of course) I will get accepted somewhere but I’m hesitant to apply to a lot of the MSTPs just because of how crazy their stats seem.

Thanks again.