She's pro-life, anti-contraception, anti-sex-ed, anti-gun control, pro creationism in schools. Those who agree with her and feel those issues are important were always going to vote Republican anyway. She's from Alaska, a state that was guaranteed to go Republican even before she was named. She doesn't help McCain win any swing states. Her nomination has hamstrung McCain's strongest criticism of Obama - that he's too inexperienced to lead. Now a 72-year-old 4-time cancer patient is saying that she's experienced enough to be one bullet or coronary away from being president?
There's a lot of jumbled, emotive thought (indicative of "wooly" thinking) going on there. Let's break it down...
"She's pro-life, anti-contraception, anti-sex-ed, anti-gun control, pro creationism in schools."
First off, the only ones there that are on the record are the pro-life and anti-gun control issues. To that I say: So what? These are and have repeatedly been proven to be election "distractors". Nothing will change on these issues, no matter how much smoke is generated. There is no fire.
The rest of these having no direct bearing on your life, do they? Likewise, she doesn't (and won't) set the tone for these policies as vice president. President Bush feels the very same way. I don't see creationism being taught as science in schools or abortion being outlawed anywhere. Next.
"Those who agree with her and feel those issues are important were always going to vote Republican anyway."
So, she has a broad appeal to a core constituency. Big deal. I call that a smart move. There are also many of us, including those who've voted Democrat in the past, who are also likely to vote for the McCain ticket this time around.
"She's from Alaska, a state that was guaranteed to go Republican even before she was named. She doesn't help McCain win any swing states."
I'll deal with this issue where you bring it up below.
"Her nomination has hamstrung McCain's strongest criticism of Obama - that he's too inexperienced to lead. Now a 72-year-old 4-time cancer patient is saying that she's experienced enough to be one bullet or coronary away from being president?"
Just like Dick Cheney, a veritable cardiac cripple, did to GWB... twice? Come on.
Granted, it's still a couple days early, but McCain's had NO bump in the polls from the RNC. Nothing but distractions: an anti-sex-ed and anti-contraception VP candidate's teenage daughter is pregnant out of wedlock; the claim that her inexperience is totally different from Obama's inexperience; the ethics scandal that just won't go away; on and on and on.
You seem to completely overestimate the average American's attention span. You should have stopped at "Granted, it's still a couple of days early..." Actually, it's a couple of
months early.
Look at ANY of the major pollster electoral maps, and you'll see Obama has a very large lead in electoral votes. Here's
one. Compared to 2004, the democratic party has picked up five states (Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio); the republican party has picked up none. States that weren't even contested last time are close this time.
Ibid.
Swing states decide elections. Obama has made tremendous gains in those states. McCain hasn't. Palin doesn't help - it doesn't matter that she is being received favorably by voters in red states who were going to vote for McCain anyway.
Okay. Here we go.
How did the Dems lose 2000 and then again in 2004? Florida and Ohio. The rest of the country is pretty evenly divided. You have a powerful, dynamic, young speaker who blew the doors off last night during her speech. There is going to be a lot of interest in her as a tough, non-nonsense working woman that, I believe, is going to appeal to a lot more "undecided" voting women out there than you currently believe. If anyone blew it, it was Obama for not picking Hillary as his running mate.
My prediction: Democrats won't even win Biden's measly 3 electoral votes in Delaware.
Voters are gullible and will fall for substanceless sound-bite ads. Obama will air more of them because he has a lot more money to spend on advertising than McCain.
That's not what's currently happening now. I watch the TV too, you know. Fact is that the McCain campaign, in just the
first day, got a $7 million dollar bump after announcement Palin's nomination.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/08/30/mccain_gets_7_million_bounce_f.html
Note that the Obama campaign refused to disclose how much they got from announcing Biden. Draw your own conclusions.
I'll restate my prediction that Obama wins by a lot of electoral votes ... and yes, I know that my prediction and $5 will get you a very small coffee at Starbucks.
I'll take that bet. I think it's going to be a very tight race. And, I just don't think the Dems will have the horsepower to win the battleground states. I think you're going to see the 2004 election all over again, personally. And, FWIW, Biden, on "The Today Show" this morning, looked completely unprepared to offer a retort to Matt Lauer when asked about what he's going to debate her on. Strong showing.
-copro