Physician Employment Numbers

[postbacpremed87]

I was wondering how many physicians retire each year? How many new physicians finish residency each year?

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[SLC]

Double post, that was wierd.

 

[SLC]

I was wondering how many physicians retire each year? How many new physicians finish residency each year?

http://bit.ly/17GvhPi

http://bit.ly/18JWyeF

 

[Postictal Raiden]

It's easy to know the number of physicians entering the work force each year. You only need to look at the number of graduate who match into residency spots and then you'll have a good estimate of how many will graduate residency. Looking at the numbers, there are ~30K newly trained doctors enter the work force every year.

Knowing how many retire each year is much harder. However, I looked at some data recently and learned that about 50% of doctors are over the age of 50. If we assume that doctors, on average practice until the age of 65, we can say that half of practicing physicians (~400K) will be retiring sometime within the next 15 years. This may be accelerated by the big shift our healthcare system is enduring since many old doctors aren't going to adapt. On the other hand, if the number of residency slots remain the same, we can say ~450K newly trained physicians will enter the workforce within the next 15 years. Meaning, after 15 years, we will have 50K more physicians than we have today (~6% increase). The US population is growing at a rate of ~1.1% per year. It is estimated that in 2030 the US population to reach 360 million people, a 45 million increase from today's number (16%). Therefore, the general population is growing at a much higher rate than the physician population. However, I wouldn't get too excited since this gap will be filled by the increasing number of NP's/PA's/CRNA's etc...

 

[postbacpremed87]

It's easy to know the number of physicians entering the work force each year. You only need to look at the number of graduate who match into residency spots and then you'll have a good estimate of how many will graduate residency. Looking at the numbers, there are ~30K newly trained doctors enter the work force every year.

Knowing how many retire each year is much harder. However, I looked at some data recently and learned that about 50% of doctors are over the age of 50. If we assume that doctors, on average practice until the age of 65, we can say that half of practicing physicians (~400K) will be retiring sometime within the next 15 years. This may be accelerated by the big shift our healthcare system is enduring since many old doctors aren't going to adapt. On the other hand, if the number of residency slots remain the same, we can say ~450K newly trained physicians will enter the workforce within the next 15 years. Meaning, after 15 years, we will have 50K more physicians than we have today (~6% increase). The US population is growing at a rate of ~1.1% per year. It is estimated that in 2030 the US population to reach 360 million people, a 45 million increase from today's number (16%). Therefore, the general population is growing at a much higher rate than the physician population. However, I wouldn't get too excited since this gap will be filled by the increasing number of NP's/PA's/CRNA's etc...

Thank you for responding in a manner that was civil. This is exactly what I was looking for.

 

[Doingmybest86]

http://bit.ly/17GvhPi

http://bit.ly/18JWyeF

I was not expecting the whole "let me google that for you" but I got a much needed laugh.

 

[JediZero]

It's easy to know the number of physicians entering the work force each year. You only need to look at the number of graduate who match into residency spots and then you'll have a good estimate of how many will graduate residency. Looking at the numbers, there are ~30K newly trained doctors enter the work force every year.

Knowing how many retire each year is much harder. However, I looked at some data recently and learned that about 50% of doctors are over the age of 50. If we assume that doctors, on average practice until the age of 65, we can say that half of practicing physicians (~400K) will be retiring sometime within the next 15 years. This may be accelerated by the big shift our healthcare system is enduring since many old doctors aren't going to adapt. On the other hand, if the number of residency slots remain the same, we can say ~450K newly trained physicians will enter the workforce within the next 15 years. Meaning, after 15 years, we will have 50K more physicians than we have today (~6% increase). The US population is growing at a rate of ~1.1% per year. It is estimated that in 2030 the US population to reach 360 million people, a 45 million increase from today's number (16%). Therefore, the general population is growing at a much higher rate than the physician population. However, I wouldn't get too excited since this gap will be filled by the increasing number of NP's/PA's/CRNA's etc...

This. If the basic question is about future job security, I'd say that as long as you complete residency, you'll be fine. The supply of available physicians will mostly play out in relative compensation. For example, the city in Oregon where I did my third year had only one Dermatologist; he made bank, and was booked out for months with patients. In the San Francisco area, however, where all the dermatologists apparently want to live, the pay is significantly lower, and getting a Derm appointment is relatively easy; still, they're all able to work and maintain the lifestyle you'd expect for the specialty. Similarly, even if the projected 'Physician Gap' is filled by NPs and PAs in the years to come, there will still be a place for doctors as long as they are willing to settle for less.

(As an aside, I'd expect the midlevel boom to be ironically destroyed by its own ambition when they achieve their goal of equal reimbursement. If you're not saving 15% by hiring someone with less training, why the hell would you? At the very least, we'll see a stabilization in the number of midlevel positions.)

Now, if you want to talk about prospects for doing something other than FP...

 

[NurWollen]

This. If the basic question is about future job security, I'd say that as long as you complete residency, you'll be fine. The supply of available physicians will mostly play out in relative compensation. For example, the city in Oregon where I did my third year had only one Dermatologist; he made bank, and was booked out for months with patients. In the San Francisco area, however, where all the dermatologists apparently want to live, the pay is significantly lower, and getting a Derm appointment is relatively easy; still, they're all able to work and maintain the lifestyle you'd expect for the specialty. Similarly, even if the projected 'Physician Gap' is filled by NPs and PAs in the years to come, there will still be a place for doctors as long as they are willing to settle for less.

(As an aside, I'd expect the midlevel boom to be ironically destroyed by its own ambition when they achieve their goal of equal reimbursement. If you're not saving 15% by hiring someone with less training, why the hell would you? At the very least, we'll see a stabilization in the number of midlevel positions.)

Now, if you want to talk about prospects for doing something other than FP...

Not sure I get that last part. You think the job market will be better for FPs than for other fields?

 

[SurgeDO]

Not sure I get that last part. You think the job market will be better for FPs than for other fields?

the demand for FP and primary care docs is unparalleled compared to the other fields of medicine. once ACA goes into effect, primary care will be in even more demand.

 

[GUH]

the demand for FP and primary care docs is unparalleled compared to the other fields of medicine. once ACA goes into effect, primary care will be in even more demand.

And insurance will pay you peanuts

 

[NurWollen]

the demand for FP and primary care docs is unparalleled compared to the other fields of medicine. once ACA goes into effect, primary care will be in even more demand.

And insurance will pay you peanuts

Hence my confusion.

 

[SLC]

And insurance will pay you peanuts

Yeah, but there will be a lot of peanuts out there for Primary Care physicians to be paid with.

It's sorta like an OB friend of mine back in Utah, when asked about compensation he said "the rates are a bit lower here than other places, but I "mow a lot more lawns" here than I would anywhere else"

 

[abolt18]

Yeah, but there will be a lot of peanuts out there for Primary Care physicians to be paid with.

It's sorta like an OB friend of mine back in Utah, when asked about compensation he said "the rates are a bit lower here than other places, but I "mow a lot more lawns" here than I would anywhere else"

Cause all them dang Mormons making babies! They never stop.
(I should specify, I am Mormon and have kids... no hate here. Just pointing out the true reason an OB will stay super busy in Utah)

 

[GUH]

Yeah, but there will be a lot of peanuts out there for Primary Care physicians to be paid with.

It's sorta like an OB friend of mine back in Utah, when asked about compensation he said "the rates are a bit lower here than other places, but I "mow a lot more lawns" here than I would anywhere else"

So you get low reimbursement and you have a lot of patients to deal with?

 

[SLC]

So you get low reimbursement and you have a lot of patients to deal with?

Yes, I suppose.

Still better than low reimbursement and fewer patients to deal with IMO.

Get a few PA's and you could do real well I'd think.

 

[NurWollen]

Cause all them dang Mormons making babies! They never stop.
(I should specify, I am Mormon and have kids... no hate here. Just pointing out the true reason an OB will stay super busy in Utah)

I think we've discussed this before, but UVRMC and McKay-Dee really need to open up some OB residencies. I bet their FM residencies have unparalleled OB exposure compared to your average FM residency.

 

[Postictal Raiden]

Yes, I suppose.

Still better than low reimbursement and fewer patients to deal with IMO.

Get a few PA's and you could do real well I'd think.

I agree with this except for the "low reimbursement" part. I don't think PC medicine will see any cuts any time soon. If anything, they may see an increase.

I genuinely believe that under this new climate shift, PCP salaries will rise to specialists' level.

 

[postbacpremed87]

I agree with this except for the "low reimbursement" part. I don't think PC medicine will see any cuts any time soon. If anything, they may see an increase.

I genuinely believe that under this new climate shift, PCP salaries will rise to specialists' level.

I think it will be more specialist pay falling to PCP levels. I think PCP's will see an increase to the $210,000-$215,000 ballpark and specialists will fall closer to the $230,000-$240,000 mark. I honestly think that in 10 years, the difference in pay between some of the surgical specialties and PC specialties will be less than $30,000-$40,000. This will drive more to consider primary care.

 

[Postictal Raiden]

I think it will be more specialist pay falling to PCP levels. I think PCP's will see an increase to the $210,000-$215,000 ballpark and specialists will fall closer to the $230,000-$240,000 mark. I honestly think that in 10 years, the difference in pay between some of the surgical specialties and PC specialties will be less than $30,000-$40,000. This will drive more to consider primary care.

Perhaps. However, following salary trends, you can see that PCP salaries are going up while specialist salaries on average are plateauing (although in some specialties you still see an increase every years (GI and Anesthesia come to mind) and others see a decrease (CT Surgery and Cards)). PCP's are already making 180-220k. I think the pay will go up even higher.

 

[TXKnight]

Much ado about nothing

For all the talk regarding lower compensations and the such, the reality as shown by hard numbers seems to be different....except for a few specialties. (slide #3 on http://www.medscape.com/features/slideshow/compensation/2013/public)

Now, the cost of medical schooling on the other hand.....

 

[Postictal Raiden]

Much ado 'bout nothing

For all the talk regarding lower compensations and the such, the reality as shown by hard numbers seems to be different....except for a few specialties. (slide #3 on http://www.medscape.com/features/slideshow/compensation/2013/public)

Now, the cost of medical schooling on the other hand.....

Good find.

I think all this doom and gloom talk by residents and attendings is a defense mechanism and to spread the "awareness" to prevent potential future cuts.

The cost of medical education is out of control. This bubble will burst in one way or another. However, I still think, or try to persuade myself, that the job security and the potential earning in medical careers are still worth it. Especially with the option of repaying back these loans at an affordable pace (IBR/PAYE/PLSF), it may not be as crippling as it sounds to graduate med school owing 300 or even 400K.

 

[NurWollen]

Good find.

I think all this doom and gloom talk by residents and attendings is a defense mechanism and to spread the "awareness" to prevent potential future cuts.

The cost of medical education is out of control. This bubble will burst in one way or another. However, I still think, or try to persuade myself, that the job security and the potential earning in medical careers are still worth it. Especially with the option of repaying back these loans at an affordable pace (IBR/PAYE/PLSF), it may not be as crippling as it sounds to graduate med school owing 300 or even 400K.

I think when I'm done with residency I'm going to start paying as much back as I possibly can, even if I have to live like I've got a resident's income. If I work for a non-profit and qualify for PSLF, that's great. I just don't want to let my debt balloon from interest while I'm making minimum payments each year for seven years out of residency, then find that for one reason or another PSLF is no longer an option.

 

[Postictal Raiden]

I think when I'm done with residency I'm going to start paying as much back as I possibly can, even if I have to live like I've got a resident's income. If I work for a non-profit and qualify for PSLF, that's great. I just don't want to let my debt balloon from interest while I'm making minimum payments each year for seven years out of residency, then find that for one reason or another PSLF is no longer an option.

My plan, if PAYE/IBR still exist, is to make the minimum payments and put ~7k/year aside in some sort of savings account. After 14-17 years (depending on how long is my residency), I will have saved ~150K just in case there's some kind of a balloon payment or something at the end. For example, if you make ~250K out of a 6 year residency+fellowship, your annual repayment amount will be ~22K. Deposit an additional 8K into a separate savings account and forget about it. 14 years later, you have close to 150K in savings to take care of any taxes you may need to pay on the forgiven amount. If you don't need to pay anything of that, then that's great!

 

[Elevencents]

I think it will be more specialist pay falling to PCP levels. I think PCP's will see an increase to the $210,000-$215,000 ballpark and specialists will fall closer to the $230,000-$240,000 mark. I honestly think that in 10 years, the difference in pay between some of the surgical specialties and PC specialties will be less than $30,000-$40,000. This will drive more to consider primary care.

You see some specialities income being cut in half? That's quite a stretch. And I don't see PCP's ever making 200k on average. Unless they are seeing 100 patients a day.

 

[postbacpremed87]

You see some specialities income being cut in half? That's quite a stretch. And I don't see PCP's ever making 200k on average. Unless they are seeing 100 patients a day.

I thought IM already averaged 200k a year (or just a shade under). It isn't a stretch for them to go up to 215k a year on average. The ones that need a boost are Peds, Psych, and FM.

 

[Elevencents]

Oh IM alone may, I thought you were referring to PCP's as a whole.

 

[postbacpremed87]

Oh IM alone may, I thought you were referring to PCP's as a whole.

I should have elaborated. IM for sure will go up to 215k.....the other PC specialties should definitely go up to 200k.

Also I do think specialists will take a dramatic pay cut as we transition from a procedure based model to a preventative based model (at least where the incentives will be placed).

One thing I am curious about is General Surgery. There is actually a great demand for these surgeons because everyone specializes nowadays. I wonder what kind of boost they will see to entice residents to go into community practice vs. pursuing fellowship opportunities.

 

[GUH]

...
One thing I am curious about is General Surgery. There is actually a great demand for these surgeons because everyone specializes nowadays. I wonder what kind of boost they will see to entice residents to go into community practice vs. pursuing fellowship opportunities.

I've heard that an increasing number of GS programs are requiring 2 years of research in addition to the 5 years of actually learning surgery. 7 years is a long time. If that's the case, then no wonder there aren't a lot of physicians becoming general surgeons, and eliminating the research aspect will help.

And if DNP's are successful in pushing for full, autonomous practice rights, I really don't see how FP salaries could increase.

 

[cliquesh]

I thought IM already averaged 200k a year (or just a shade under). It isn't a stretch for them to go up to 215k a year on average. The ones that need a boost are Peds, Psych, and FM.

The 2010 MGMA survey, which is suppose to be the most accurate physician salary survey, says the average IM salary is 212k for out patient only, 214k with at least some inpatient, and 225k as a hospialist.

Family medicine outpatient only is 185k. Family medicine hospialist is 219k.

Some people think these numbers are inflatted , however, and there is a huge standard deviation for these averages (60-80k).

I know someone, for instance, who is a family medicine attending at an ivy league hospital who makes 110k/yr working 60hrs a week.

 

[SurgeDO]

The 2010 MGMA survey, which is suppose to be the most accurate physician salary survey, says the average IM salary is 212k for out patient only, 214k with at least some inpatient, and 225k as a hospialist.

Family medicine outpatient only is 185k. Family medicine hospialist is 219k.

Some people think these numbers are inflatted , however, and there is a huge standard deviation for these averages (60-80k).

I know someone, for instance, who is a family medicine attending at an ivy league hospital who makes 110k/yr working 60hrs a week.

community pay >>> academia pay

 

[SurgeDO]

I've heard that an increasing number of GS programs are requiring 2 years of research in addition to the 5 years of actually learning surgery. 7 years is a long time. If that's the case, then no wonder there aren't a lot of physicians becoming general surgeons, and eliminating the research aspect will help.

And if DNP's are successful in pushing for full, autonomous practice rights, I really don't see how FP salaries could increase.

i see it as an attempt at restoring the image of the g-surgeon as the all-knowing and all-healing surgeon capable of performing all types of surgeries.

the AOA g-surgery residency is still at 5 years...i believe.

 

[cliquesh]

i see it as an attempt at restoring the image of the g-surgeon as the all-knowing and all-healing surgeon capable of performing all types of surgeries.

the AOA g-surgery residency is still at 5 years...i believe.

People choose to take time off during residency for research. Its not mandatory. The research years, however, are basically required for competitive things, like pediatric surgery. I don't know how common it is for AOA residents to do research years, though.

 

[SLC]

You see some specialities income being cut in half? That's quite a stretch. And I don't see PCP's ever making 200k on average. Unless they are seeing 100 patients a day.

Wow, only 5 years on and PCP’s in my field have hit and passed the $200k mark by more than a few $$$. $250k starting isn’t uncommon now. My signing salary was well north of $200k + loan repayment.

Necrobump, I know. But thought it was an interesting observation.

 

[Splenda88]

PGY3 at my program are signing hospitalist contracts for 250k--300k/yr. One of them signed a contract for 405k + 20k sign on bonus but will be working 18 shifts/month (yikes).

 

[DameJulie]

PGY3 at my program are signing hospitalist contracts for 250k--300k/yr. One of them signed a contract for 405k + 20k sign on bonus but will be working 18 shifts/month (yikes).

How long is each shift?

 

[Splenda88]

12 hrs