Really low scores but >10 ACGME interviews...is it still possible to not match?

[PediatricMan]

I have not taken USMLE and both COMLEX are below 500 with my comlex 2 drastically lower than comlex 1. I am applying to pediatrics and have gotten 14 acgme interviews so far. I am considering dropping out of the DO match (4 interviews) but I’m feeling skeptical to how I could’ve gotten so many interviews. About 60-70% of my interviews came in before my comlex 2 score came in so I’m worried the ones who gave me interviews prior to releasing my score will regret sending me invites and will rank me low. Should I be worried that the 14 interviews I’ve gotten are all reach programs and that the chances of not matching is still high enough for me to not drop out of the DO match?

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[AlbinoHawk DO]

I would drop out. 14 is a very solid number. i'm thinking that if they interview befor level 2 then they don't hold it in high regard. I've heard from the rumor mill that specialties like family med, peds and low-end IM only care if you passed on your first try. After that, it's all about your interview and the rest of your record.

 

[68PGunner]

Easy answer. Drop out AOA match right now. The rule of thumb is that if you have 10+ II, your chances of being matched is over 90% unless you're just terrible during Interview Day.

 

[SLC]

It’s possible to not match, the fact that your application doesn’t include a USMLE combined with a lower Level 2 than Level 1 makes it much more likely in my mind.

I’d stay in the AOA match if I were you. But I’m not you so you’ve got to make that call.

 

[group_theory]

I've heard from the rumor mill that specialties like family med, peds and low-end IM only care if you passed on your first try. After that, it's all about your interview and the rest of your record.

At my residency program (Med-Peds) - your interview scores (a composite score from interviewers) are weigh equally to your Step 1 score. Step 2 score also carry equal weight. Your total score (step scores, interview scores, MSPE score) will be used to generate a list, ranking highest score to lowest. We then meet to move people up or down. I've seen people get moved down on rank list when concerns about step scores are brought up (ie concern about clinical knowledge base, ability to pass THE boards). I've seen people move up the rank list despite their board scores (the person made a strong impression with the interviewers or resident, etc).

For the categorical pediatrics program, due to volume of interviewees/applicants, less individualized attention occurs when it comes to rank list - but the interview scores and step scores hold equal weight. So you may get interviewed, be well liked, but be ranked lower on the list due to low step score (which will result in lower overall score used for ranking). There's some movement on the list, but most stay in the order that the list generates.

Same with medicine.

However, that's just one university hospital (with medicine, peds, and med-peds). Other places may be different. YMMV


For some empirical data:
(from NRMP, for DO applicants, 2016 residency match)

For pediatrics, the average rank list of successful applicants for acgme peds (for DO applicants) was 9.5, with unsuccessful (matched) applicants rank list 4.8

Mean COMLEX 1 score for successful pediatrics applicants to ACGME Peds (for DO applicants) was 550 (464 for unsuccessful applicants)
Mean COMLEX 2 score for successful pediatrics applicant to ACGME Peds (for DO applicants) was 569 (462 for unsuccessful applicants)

If you ranked 14 spots, your probability of matching, based on NRMP Charting outcome, is close to 1.0
reference: Graph PD-1: Probability of U.S. Osteopathic Medical Students/Graduates Matching to Preferred Specialty by Number of Contiguous Ranks, Page 100 )

Source of above statistics
http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Charting-Outcomes-US-Osteopathic-2016.pdf

 

[Jinxapotato]

I know people say 10+ interviews will usually net you some place, but I would go on as many interviews as possible - just to be safe. So I guess it really depends on your wallet and schedule, if you can go, I would go if I were you.

 

[PediatricMan]

At my residency program (Med-Peds) - your interview scores (a composite score from interviewers) are weigh equally to your Step 1 score. Step 2 score also carry equal weight. Your total score (step scores, interview scores, MSPE score) will be used to generate a list, ranking highest score to lowest. We then meet to move people up or down. I've seen people get moved down on rank list when concerns about step scores are brought up (ie concern about clinical knowledge base, ability to pass THE boards). I've seen people move up the rank list despite their board scores (the person made a strong impression with the interviewers or resident, etc).

For the categorical pediatrics program, due to volume of interviewees/applicants, less individualized attention occurs when it comes to rank list - but the interview scores and step scores hold equal weight. So you may get interviewed, be well liked, but be ranked lower on the list due to low step score (which will result in lower overall score used for ranking). There's some movement on the list, but most stay in the order that the list generates.

Same with medicine.

However, that's just one university hospital (with medicine, peds, and med-peds). Other places may be different. YMMV


For some empirical data:
(from NRMP, for DO applicants, 2016 residency match)

For pediatrics, the average rank list of successful applicants for acgme peds (for DO applicants) was 9.5, with unsuccessful (matched) applicants rank list 4.8

Mean COMLEX 1 score for successful pediatrics applicants to ACGME Peds (for DO applicants) was 550 (464 for unsuccessful applicants)
Mean COMLEX 2 score for successful pediatrics applicant to ACGME Peds (for DO applicants) was 569 (462 for unsuccessful applicants)

If you ranked 14 spots, your probability of matching, based on NRMP Charting outcome, is close to 1.0
reference: Graph PD-1: Probability of U.S. Osteopathic Medical Students/Graduates Matching to Preferred Specialty by Number of Contiguous Ranks, Page 100 )

Source of above statistics
http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Charting-Outcomes-US-Osteopathic-2016.pdf

So should I be worried based on my situation or relax based on statistics?

 

[xffan624]

So should I be worried based on my situation or relax based on statistics?

You should not be worried, but you should not take anything for granted. Attend all the interviews and rank every program (unless there's one that you would rather go unmatched than go to).

 

[NurWollen]

I have not taken USMLE and both COMLEX are below 500 with my comlex 2 drastically lower than comlex 1. I am applying to pediatrics and have gotten 14 acgme interviews so far. I am considering dropping out of the DO match (4 interviews) but I’m feeling skeptical to how I could’ve gotten so many interviews. About 60-70% of my interviews came in before my comlex 2 score came in so I’m worried the ones who gave me interviews prior to releasing my score will regret sending me invites and will rank me low. Should I be worried that the 14 interviews I’ve gotten are all reach programs and that the chances of not matching is still high enough for me to not drop out of the DO match?

Congrats on all the invites! Are any of the AOA interviews you've had preferable to you than the last few spots on your ACGME list? Just something to think about. Only you can decide that. Most of the AOA programs now have ACGME accreditation, btw.

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[PediatricMan]

Congrats on all the invites! Are any of the AOA interviews you've had preferable to you than the last few spots on your ACGME list? Just something to think about. Only you can decide that. Most of the AOA programs now have ACGME accreditation, btw.

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There’s only one program I would actually want to rank on the AOA side but I also have several on the ACGME side that I would rather go to if that makes sense. The AOA program I was interested in isn’t participating in the MD match.

 

[NurWollen]

There’s only one program I would actually want to rank on the AOA side but I also have several on the ACGME side that I would rather go to if that makes sense. The AOA program I was interested in isn’t participating in the MD match.

I think you're probably safe to drop the AOA match.

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